TIPS
The full break-down of free ‘tips’ for the year can be read HERE>>>
I won’t dwell on them here. The general downward slump has continued albeit hopefully Harry The Viking may spark some green shoots of recovery. The profit stats for the year still read well, albeit if you started just after their peak .. +138 points .. it is fair to say we are on a slump. Albeit if I conveniently ignore my flat tips (-22.5 points) and focus on the Jumps , as I write 7 days into December, they are around the +90 points mark. Anyway they are what they are and I will try and improve on recent efforts.
***
Micro Systems
Jumps Angles
Covering various angles including the V W November system, Tom George Chasers, Kerry Lee Chasers, Saturday TJCs and a few others posted up through the month…
43 bets / 8 wins = +12.75 points
Other
Includes the odd AW angle mainly focusing on Fanshawe and Perrett..
4 bets / 2 wins = +1.5 points
These results build on the success of the Sept/Oct angles and the others covered in those two months (other NTD micro, Lavelle micro) which pulled in around +71 points across that portfolio.
So since the start of September those main ‘Jumps Angles’ have pulled in around +85 points.
***
Moving onto those that are being ‘live tested’…
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
These have no odds caps and were newly researched for this year. So far they have a bit of work to do, but such is the approach it won’t take many winners to propel them into profit. But, clearly, some caution should be advised at the moment…
73 bets / 12 winners = -7.1 points.
That brings the total since testing first started in September to …
111 bets / 15 winners = -24.6 points
All those results are based on 1 point win bets. I would always advise tracking your own bets/results if you do follow any of the above.
**
Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17
Results at the end of week 10 for these stats can be found HERE>>>
***
That will be all for this update.
Josh
5 Responses
Wow. I didn’t realise the free tips had slumped so much. From a high of nearly 100 pts profit to single figs. Do you have any thoughts on why this has happened Josh. I have voiced my opinions before on how the blog changed for me personally and that was not based on results. Obviously if your subscription services are performing that would be good for you and paying members but if there is a correlation between them and free tips nose diving may be something needs to change/go. I know I have always felt that once a ‘free blog’ changes into a pay/subscription service or part as in your case it ceases to be a free blog and something suffers. This is just my opinion and of course it may be a coincidence but it would be nice to know what you think has caused such a negative impact on the free tips. A graph would make interesting viewing also but of course its you blog and your time, which is appreciated I assure you, even by non subscribers, well me anyway.
Hi Jim,
Thanks for your comment as always well thought through -even if we will always disagree on the odd view on free blogs vs paid elements etc. I am quite confident that there are not many who share the amount of free stuff I do- most of which I think is a certain quality- or at least the intention is always that. But, let’s not reheat that old discussion…
Tipping…
Firstly there is no correlation between the subscription element and the performance of the tips- I don’t cut corners when tipping and my approach is similar to that which brought in the profits in the first 1/4, 3rd of the year. (and the Members Club/TTP Notes have only really kicked into gear since October time)
If you look in as as a whole, they are nearly on +70 points as I write- which is fine, albeit maybe not in the context of the high point…
– there is a possibility I am not actually that good at tipping in these races 🙂 Certainly my Flat tipping as atrocious and I wont be trying that again until I have actually improved my skills set on that front/worked out an approach. Removing those -22.5 points leaves a healthy looking number for the jumps tips.
– the average odds I have played at have been around 10-14/1 I think, certainly the average price of winners has been around 8/1. I care for profit and I enjoy trying to solve the puzzle of 3m+ chases. There are quite a few Festival/20+ runner handicaps in there also- and you don’t solve them very often, but hopefully pay over time if you find the odd one.
– average odds around those figures and win strike rates that go with it of the 12-16% range = very long losing runs at times- there is some basic maths in that. The great free tipping king that is Gary Priestley plays big odds and has a low SR, massive profits- but he has the odd month where he loses 30-55 points every now and then.(albeit he has a strong historical record,whch as yet I dont.which gives confidence for the future) Some perspective is needed albeit I would like to be doing better and can always improve. Always plenty to work on.
– there is a time period as well- that downhill slump has been from around the end of April through to Oct/Nov time- not the main winter jumps season, and not when some of the form starts to settle down. I will judge myself fully come the end of April again- I could just not be very good and need to educate myself more etc etc.
They are free tips at the end of the day. Results etc have always been clear and how people use them is down to them. I back them all still and have every confidence in myself moving forwards. I also try and add value in the write ups and many use those to back their own winners,ignoring me!
Josh
Fair do’s. I don’t really question your knowledge, especially given some of your big odds winners in the past. Of which, given your reasoning couldn’t classed as lucky. However I do question your feelings on the free tips versus the subscription services and I feel if you continue in this vein it will show. I have no doubt a few big price winners will come and greatly boost the overall figures and current trend but surely there is a conflict of interests. Once people are paying for a service they rightly have to be your priority and hence that has to have some affect on what you were previously doing unless your squeezing extra hours into the day of course 🙂
Well I do put the hours in, but then when something feels like a hobby they tend to fly by..
I can assure you I look at the a tipping race – a 3m+ chase, in the same way as I have always done, the same time, dedication etc. I fit that in and the subscription element no problem- remember that is based on the stats pack, and the odd research piece through the month.
My knowledge/approach should be question – I do question it regularly, I would like be doing better than I am but am quite confident I will improve over time. Always learning in this game.
There could be a general point about ‘work overload’ and how that may affect the mindset, I don’t know. I think we are best waiting to judge through the full proper season again-if the trend of May-Nov continues through to Dec-April – then I clearly will need to go back to school.
Josh
OK. Thanks for your thoughts and will continue to watch with interest 🙂 Oh and best of luck of course I am still wishing and hoping for the new portfolio and will keep to my promise of a donation if I make a profit out of them come April :0