Bertenbar (all hncps + micro runs this season) UP 13/8>5/2
NOTE: Trainer 4/37,11p last 14 days, going OK without being red hot- did have a bumper winner at Catt to add to those. All race conditions fine albeit 0/2,0 at track now. 15/8 for a 12year old,albeit lightly raced.
Vent Nivernais (micro – class) UP 7/2>5/1
NOTE: trainer 0/4,0p last 14 days. Trainer is 2/13 with handicap chasers 121-365 days off, so can get them fit it seems. Horse is lightly raced but now 0/6,0p over fences- maybe of some interest he returns to a track connections tend to do well at. More to come at some stage albeit he could just not like chasing.
The Last Bar (all hncp + micro H runs this season) UP 7/2>5/1>12/1 (market spoke)
NOTE: Skelton again. The horse is unexposed/lightly raced. The PU would be a concern LTO. Maybe it was just an off day. More to come at some stage and steps back up in trip.
Jaunty Flight (all hncp + micro age) 2nd 8/11
NOTE: trainer 3/9,6 places last 14 days. Horse in form under both codes. 10/11, seems to have an obvious chance.
WINCANTON (MEETING OFF, FROZEN)
Que Sea (hncp h)
NOTE: Hobbs 8/44,18 places last 14 days. Another lightly raced sort who could have more to come at some stage. PU LTO raises some questions. Drops back in trip may help. So may the change of headgear.
Martabot (micro going IF soft, + hncp h debut)
NOTE: Pipe 1/11,1p last 14 days. Doesn’t look like this foreign import has raced since June 14. Could be anything here. 7/2.
Tikkapick (hncp c)
NOTE: Tizzard in superb form, 8/23,11 places last 14 days. Horse is 0/14 in career, 0/5,2p last 14 days. Step up in trip may help. Young, unexposed enough, if not blessed with great ability in what is a poor race. His fitness and consistency should see him in the mix here.
An Siltean (NHF)
NOTE: Fry 5/18,10 places last 14 days, in form. Won a point, seems well fancied. Market may guide. Could be anything.
NOTE: Lavelle also in form, 3/10,3p last 14 days. Market may guide, maybe of some concern that he wears a hood first time up. Another who could be anything.
Bobble Boru (micro, distance) 2nd 6/1 (looked good all bar last few yards)
NOTE: Shepperd 0/6,0p last 14 days. Good record with LTO winners, 7/26,12 places. Won for us LTO at decent odds, could get an easy lead again here. In form, should run his race.
Well we have lost Wincanton which is a shame but that’s the weather for you. If it isn’t the lack of rain annoying us jumping fans, it is sub zero temperatures!
Yesterday was a case of hitting the woodwork really with many running well. Quick word on Horseguardsparade… gulp… smacks back of hand- nearly a clanger. I hope it came through in the write up that I was on the fence and I should have been more positive- yes he was out of form but he did tick the ‘unexposed’ box, esp over that distance- he had yet to conclusively prove that he couldn’t stay, and the trainer was in form. And never discount all the main contenders falling in a hole. He went from 12s>16s (touched 20s) and when they tick a few of those boxes above I really shouldn’t be putting them in the ‘not backed’ category. Hansupfordetroit has a little chase in him this year by the looks of that run, and had Hadfield jumped with any fluency he probably would have won- but he didn’t.
Well what remains are either unexposed/lightly raced and/or in form horses. And I can’t put you or myself off any on that basis really.
The odds are too skinny personally for both Bertenbar and Jaunty In Flight. One or both may win but too short for me.
Bobble Boru- well IF in the same form as LTO he will go close here- he should get an easy lead again I think. A mild concern over the more lively ground but has ran OK on it in the past. And it could allow him to get away further. This looks another weak race and a good bit of placing. He is hitting 3s, 10/3 in places which looks fair enough. The Farrelly horse looks the main danger and maybe he will grab him on the tough climb to the line- they could finish 1-2 in a certain order… we shall see.
Vert Nivernais – given the break I think we will know our fate if he takes a walk in the market. But I take some confidence that he returns here and Treadwell is up. (I didn’t realise he had been injured, which would explain him not riding in recent weeks!- good to see him back- fine jockey, esp on a chaser,and even more so when trained by this trainer, or Venetia) 7/2 is just about ok I think- he could not cut it as a chaser but he is lightly raced and this is a weak race.
Those two look the most interesting…
The Last Bar- he seems weak in the market and maybe is getting to a more backable price – if he were trained by a lesser trainer I think that PU may be scrutinised more, or you would be less forgiving. It isn’t a positive, clearly, and he has a question to answer on that basis. Having just looked Skelton is 2/11, 6 places with handicap hurdlers (inc novice handicaps) that PU LTO. If he returns to form he goes close.
That will do for today.