NOTE: December trainers... I will spend Thursday morning looking to see if there are any trainers to keep an eye on during the month. I may try something a bit different and look for some different angles and a collection if micros- rather than just following one or two trainers. I am pondering and will see what I find.
This will be completed Thursday morning, in time for any possibly selections in the afternoon. Forever running behind!
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TIPS
1.45 Wincanton (MEETING OFF, FROZEN)
Heroes or Ghosts – 1 point win – 9/2 (bet365) 4/1 (general)
This is a small field and not the greatest of quality but I think 9/2, 4/1 looks fair about this one’s chance to me, and a shade too big maybe.
Only him and Cyclop don’t have some sort of question over them, based on recent runs anyway. You need to take some leap of faith, to varying degrees, on the rest.
Heroes has yet to win a race and this is his 6th chase, but he has gone very close on two. He is young, unexposed, and comes here in form. This trip looks fine (albeit unproven), so does the ground, and he could come on for that last run. His recent races have had future winners in them. He has also jumped out to the right a tad on a couple of those runs so going this way may help- usually he is a decent jumper. I am pleased Madden stays on as that could be some indication that they expect a bold run.
Silver Commander was tubby to my eye LTO after a lengthy lay-off and may need another run. He could even bounce. But he was well stuffed. Some questions and he has clearly had problems. I would want to see more before diving in at that price. Danimix would go close if repeating that Chepstow run/his best but he is very hit and miss these days and is now 11. He hasn’t been running that well really. Ardkilly – well he could do anything and cant be trusted. Gets blinkers here which may work, they probably won’t. Risky. Saint R was pulled up LTO a long way out and has questions on that basis. Some leap of faith around 9/2. He likes the track though and if that was a blip he could win.
That leaves Cyclop, a worthy fav – but maybe one worth taking on given how hard a slog that ‘National’ was the last day. He can clout a fence also. If he doesn’t feel that run he is the most likely winner, but is priced up accordingly and could be worth taking on. He is a fairly small horse as well I think, and it may be he prefers carrying a lighter weight. We shall see.
Heroes or Ghosts looks like he stays well enough and can race prominently.
I was going to leave this race and maybe I will regret not doing so- but 9/2 jumped out at me a bit for him, given his unexposed profile and the fact he ran a decent race LTO. This is a step up in class but it isn’t a strong C3, esp if a few perform as they have done on recent runs. He clearly has a bit to find and wont be winning if some of those run up to their ratings- but there are plenty of reasons to think they won’t, and that Heroes may be better than this at some point.
Happy to take a stab.
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JUMPS ANGLES
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- LIVE TEST
Hurdle
2.15 Winc- Que Sera (improve for run/fresh)
3.00 MR – Shotofwine (unexp hurdlers) WON 5/1>3/1
3.30 MR- Crafty Roberto (clear top weights) WON 8/1
Chase
1.45 Winc – Danimix (2nd run after break)
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NOTE: I will post any Venetia Chase qualifiers into December to keep an eye on them in the next couple of weeks, albeit despite the limited runners it has been another profitable November.
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.25 CROOKSTOWN – 20/1… (2nd 12/1– looked good for a moment, ran well enough) Maybe I am losing my marbles – and what an early stage in the season to do so – but 20s seems big for a horse who ticks all race conditions and who is 2/2 at the track, and is well enough handicapped. I have highlighted two horses in recent days who have needed headgear to work- and it hasn’t – which is generally the case I suppose. This one gets first time blinkers and you never know. Those plus a return to this track, and a drop in class from previous runs (ignoring the last one for a moment) could spark some kind of revival. At his most recent best, he would go close in this race. He also prefers a decent surface to my eye and a combination of the going and the trip may have done for him the last day. It is possible, probable, even, that he is just out of form and he will confirm as much today. He is 3/6,4 places going RH, 0/11,3p going LH- I don’t know if there is a preference there or that is just how it has worked out having looked through his form (gone close enough a few times to suggest LH not all bad), but it is another positive maybe. Anyway, another stab. It’s mainly about the blinkers. 20s is massive if they work, and too short if they dont.
DECEMBER TRAINERS
A new post/report can be found in the Free Reports/Systems tab, or from the Home Page.
You can grab the report HERE>>>
Qualifiers…
Micro Systems
5.15 Chelm – Welease Bwian (14/1< guide) DNQ
6.45 Chelm- Mona Valley (14/1< guide) 2nd 6/1
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12 Responses
Another pretty average days racing on the NH front. One bet for me tomorrow which has cropped up on a handicap / distance move system i have in HRB.
Horse in question is Shotovwine for Nicky Richards @ Market Rasen 15.00.
Looking at his trainer stats at the course Richards is only 4/37 last 5 years, with all wins with his hurdlers, however on closure inspection trainer is 2/2 with handicap debutants at the track the past 5 years.
Pretty average race with some exposed sorts and a couple who’ve shown nothing but have come down in the ratings (Improved for example). Based on stats (albeit small sample) gonna have a bet on Nickys only runner of the day
Good luck Leon, I have had a nibble- hopefully he does it for you and the portfolio test, and as you point out a few other supporting stats- mainly that handicap hurdle debut track stat. Was worth a go I think. Shocker of a day on the whole.
Never in too much doubt really! Lovely.
Yep, nice and easy. Nice little stat, very few runners but reliable.
Any thoughts on Becher Chase yet Josh – I know you pulled it out the bag with Highland Lodge last year!
Unsure whether to stick to the historical trends concerning age,rating and experience over the national fences. Looks a potentially classier renewal than last year’s but some hardened stats for a potentially younger (8 or less) and higher rated animal to have to bust on Saturday. Potential of good list ground may aide a typically classier animal this year I’m wondering.
I am planning to dive into the stats asap for that- have tipped and backed last two winners, both 33s! Asking too much to do that again but will try my best.
Changes to the fences make going too far back on the trends dangerous I think – i will look 8 years maybe- I always having a bold jumper who races prominently- I need to look at the pace, but there could be a fair bit on. Interested in Silvergrove at a price maybe. Need to dig some stats out.
Those races over those fences effectively are now just high class handicaps- the fences still ‘look massive’ to a horse and I think some experience is still useful- the fields still get strung out over those fences- and they clearly still have some impact, albeit not as stiff as they once were.
So many decent long distance chases on Sat to spend my Friday wading through.
Look forward to reading your analysis Josh – to be honest 2 x 33’s places in 2 years wouldn’t be bad never mind the last 2 winners.
I personally don’t like to look back beyond 5-6 years as race conditions etc change over time.
Useful stats appear to be:
Over 8
Rated 130-138
Minimum of 7 handicap chase runs
A run in a chase lto, and
a run of the Aintree fences atleast (Track/NH code) filter in HRB
Alvarado and Gas Line Boy seem to fit the bill but not keen on Alvarados price ATM, hoping it’ll drift out slightly.
Was as Cheltenham the last day Silvergrove ran and he looked extremely unfit compared to a couple of other Pauling runners on the day. Should come on from that showing and give you a run for your money.
Looks a hard race to get a handle on with so many front runners on show. I can’t work out whether the race will just break up for a closer to take advantage of with so much pace on paper or whether theres a couple in there who will keep up the pace for the full distance.
Paddy Watch
Although Paddy had a winner,it wasn’t much value,but at least it shows O Brien is still firing on all cylinders,its really the chasers that haven’t hit peak form yet,but that will turn around soon.nothing for tomorrow
Running Total +11.75
A little late but I have a racing book suggestion
Someone beat me to advising the Veitch book (who apparently has strong links to the Stuart Williams yard, by the by. Welease Bwian 5.15 Chelmsford cropped up in my S Williams AW system and when the money comes for them, it really seems to mean something, so keep an eye on the market and we may be onto a Veitch special! Visor comes off, which is interesting, as their last landed gamble, Pactolus improved for removal of headgear).
Anyway, my book recommendation is Hitting The Turf by David Ashforth, portraying the tales of woe and triumph of a punter. A beautiful, witty writer, that man. And whilst, being new to racing, a lot of the references do go straight over my head, it is a thoroughly enjoyable read. The divisive character James Willoughby off RUK (I love the guy – sorry!) proclaims this book to be the best book about racing
Cheers Ali, yep the Veitch book is a good read, and I should think the Williams link still exists.
Thanks for your book recommendation, I will take a look!
I like James Willoughby- I didn’t used to mind, when I first starting listening to him I thought it all a bit too technical etc. But, he has grown on me and when with the right presenter (him and Oli Bell are entertaining) he is a good listen, and says plenty that gets you thinking. Albeit from a very technical mathematical standpoint. Still, his views all help add to the pot of opinion.
Cheers
Josh
I wrote a while back about Nigel Hawke juveniles and that he had said he had 2 or 3 better than the one that had been winning over the summer, I think Nachi Falls? The 2 juveniles who have run subsequently have been truly awful but there is another running today – a mare- in the first at MR called Deauville Crystal. Been cut a point or so so enough enthusiasm for me to give this angle another go each way.
Interesting, JV
I did notice last season that Hawke had really upped his hurdling game with a nice few progressive youngsters, Rejaah and Speredrek to name a couple
Thanks Leon 1986 for shotofwine on at 9/2 cheers.