NOTE: December trainers... I will spend Thursday morning looking to see if there are any trainers to keep an eye on during the month. I may try something a bit different and look for some different angles and a collection if micros- rather than just following one or two trainers. I am pondering and will see what I find.
This will be completed Thursday morning, in time for any possibly selections in the afternoon. Forever running behind!
1.45 Wincanton (MEETING OFF, FROZEN) Heroes or Ghosts – 1 point win – 9/2 (bet365) 4/1 (general)
This is a small field and not the greatest of quality but I think 9/2, 4/1 looks fair about this one’s chance to me, and a shade too big maybe.
Only him and Cyclop don’t have some sort of question over them, based on recent runs anyway. You need to take some leap of faith, to varying degrees, on the rest.
Heroes has yet to win a race and this is his 6th chase, but he has gone very close on two. He is young, unexposed, and comes here in form. This trip looks fine (albeit unproven), so does the ground, and he could come on for that last run. His recent races have had future winners in them. He has also jumped out to the right a tad on a couple of those runs so going this way may help- usually he is a decent jumper. I am pleased Madden stays on as that could be some indication that they expect a bold run.
Silver Commander was tubby to my eye LTO after a lengthy lay-off and may need another run. He could even bounce. But he was well stuffed. Some questions and he has clearly had problems. I would want to see more before diving in at that price. Danimix would go close if repeating that Chepstow run/his best but he is very hit and miss these days and is now 11. He hasn’t been running that well really. Ardkilly – well he could do anything and cant be trusted. Gets blinkers here which may work, they probably won’t. Risky. Saint R was pulled up LTO a long way out and has questions on that basis. Some leap of faith around 9/2. He likes the track though and if that was a blip he could win.
That leaves Cyclop, a worthy fav – but maybe one worth taking on given how hard a slog that ‘National’ was the last day. He can clout a fence also. If he doesn’t feel that run he is the most likely winner, but is priced up accordingly and could be worth taking on. He is a fairly small horse as well I think, and it may be he prefers carrying a lighter weight. We shall see.
Heroes or Ghosts looks like he stays well enough and can race prominently.
I was going to leave this race and maybe I will regret not doing so- but 9/2 jumped out at me a bit for him, given his unexposed profile and the fact he ran a decent race LTO. This is a step up in class but it isn’t a strong C3, esp if a few perform as they have done on recent runs. He clearly has a bit to find and wont be winning if some of those run up to their ratings- but there are plenty of reasons to think they won’t, and that Heroes may be better than this at some point.
Happy to take a stab.
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- LIVE TEST
2.15 Winc- Que Sera (improve for run/fresh)
3.00 MR – Shotofwine (unexp hurdlers) WON 5/1>3/1
3.30 MR- Crafty Roberto (clear top weights) WON 8/1
1.45 Winc – Danimix (2nd run after break)
NOTE: I will post any Venetia Chase qualifiers into December to keep an eye on them in the next couple of weeks, albeit despite the limited runners it has been another profitable November.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.25 CROOKSTOWN – 20/1… (2nd 12/1– looked good for a moment, ran well enough) Maybe I am losing my marbles – and what an early stage in the season to do so – but 20s seems big for a horse who ticks all race conditions and who is 2/2 at the track, and is well enough handicapped. I have highlighted two horses in recent days who have needed headgear to work- and it hasn’t – which is generally the case I suppose. This one gets first time blinkers and you never know. Those plus a return to this track, and a drop in class from previous runs (ignoring the last one for a moment) could spark some kind of revival. At his most recent best, he would go close in this race. He also prefers a decent surface to my eye and a combination of the going and the trip may have done for him the last day. It is possible, probable, even, that he is just out of form and he will confirm as much today. He is 3/6,4 places going RH, 0/11,3p going LH- I don’t know if there is a preference there or that is just how it has worked out having looked through his form (gone close enough a few times to suggest LH not all bad), but it is another positive maybe. Anyway, another stab. It’s mainly about the blinkers. 20s is massive if they work, and too short if they dont.
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5.15 Chelm – Welease Bwian (14/1< guide) DNQ
6.45 Chelm- Mona Valley (14/1< guide) 2nd 6/1