TTP Jumps Notes: 24/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Qualifiers + Notes + My View

NOTE: I will make a slight change to when ‘completing these posts’ – posts will be ‘complete’ by 10am on the day of racing at the latest- this just allows me to update a post if I miss out a qualifier in my first run through – or one of you posts up any qualifiers I may have missed! If any content follows after 10am I will email out but hopefully that won’t ever happen. If you use the guide yourself and do ever think I have missed something, please do comment 🙂

Qualifiers will still be posted by around 2pm on the afternoon before Tues-Sat. Sunday’s are a bonus but posted on the Sunday morning at the latest- I do not anticipate missing a Sunday. Monday’s post again can be posted Monday morning by 10am at the latest (sometimes I am busy on Sundays!) Notes/My View follow asap, no later than those morning cut offs.

 

NOTE 2 – I will post some stats/trends for the Hennessy by lunchtime at the latest today, so look out for those if that kind of thing interests you. 

 

Right, hopefully that is clear…

 

***

Qualifiers + Notes for now…

 

TOWCESTER 

2.45

Diamond Lucy (micro TJC) UP 6/1>8/1

NOTE: trainer a somewhat mildly concerning 0/29,3 places last 30 days, 0/8,0 places last 14 days. This one is 0/10,0 places in career to date and was a bit underwhelming on handicap debit here LTO. The ground is softer which may or may not help and she has had 50 days off- I don’t know if that indicates a wind op or whether there was a problem LT) or what. But, this one is unexposed in what looks a weak enough race.

 

3.15

Lock Towers (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Pauling 4/25,13 places last 30 days, but 0/16,6 places last 14 days. Horse has had 416 days off but trainer can ready them. His record 121-365 days is fine and 2/9,2 places with chasers returning more than 365 days off. His have tended to need the run this season but the market may guide. Horse is 0/5,1 place over fences, 0/10 in career to dare. So lightly enough raced to think there may be more to come at some point. A repeat of that Market Rasen run two starts ago should put him right there you would think.

 

Musical Wedge (hncp chase) NR

NOTE: Trainer 0/8,1p last 30 days. This 12 year old ticks all race conditions and is 33lb below his last winning mark- which may be an indication of regression but a return to any of his old sparkle would in theory put him in the mix. Horse has had 385 days off. Horse is 0/4,1p 60 + days off. Trainer 2/25 with handicap chasers returning 60+ days. She is an alarming 0/42,3 places all runners that have had 365+ days off, and only 1/122 with those returning 121-365. So, there must be a fitness question here based on those number I think.

 

TAUNTON

2.20

Western Sunrise (all hncp) UP 10/1

NOTE: Trainer 3/16,7 places last 30 days, 0/7,2 places last 14 days. Horse makes handicap debut, trainer 0/12,2 places with such types in last two years. Trainer only 2/45 with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days. Ran well in novice hurdles etc to suggest he has some ability. Unexposed, so always dangerous to rule out.

Tsundoku (hncp h) UP 16/1>33/1

NOTE: Dunn 0/12,0 places last 14 days, 0/22,2 places last 30 days. First run for yard,switching from another stable… She is 1/38,2 places with stable newcomers last 2 years. She is 5/31,8 places with handicap hurdlers 60+ days off – so can get them ft. 3/13,4 place in career handicap hurdlers 121-365 days- so maybe fitness not a concern.

 

3.25

Yur Next (all hncp + micro class) 3rd 10/1>15/2

NOTE: Farrelly again. Interesting that this one comes out 4 days after a PU and gets first time blinkers here I think. Clearly not a physical thing and more mental it seems. Lightly races, unexposed.

Mystery Drama (hncp h) UP 16/1

NOTE: Dunn again. Same fitness stats apply. 1/15 in career over hurdles, has a tongue tie on here for the first time, so maybe they think he has a breathing issue. The type where maybe the market will guide. Handicap mark is dropping somewhat.

 

MUSSELBURGH  (oh this meeting is abandoned! That was a good use of my time! ) 

 

XXXX

**

BONUS

Handicap Novice Chases

1.45

Earthmoves- UP

 

***

MY VIEW:

Well there is only one horse I am happy to have no money on- Musical Wedge – I just can’t ignore those trainer fitness stats with those returning after a long break. This old boy is 12 also and it will be some effort to get him winning here 1st time up. If there is a market move I may take note but personally everything points to him needing the run here. If he goes into 14-20s territory it suggests he needs it, but at same time that is a price where you watch through your fingers! Tricky one but looks up against it to me- knowing my sometimes flaky judgement he will probably be the only one that wins!

It feels like a day where one or two could just pop up, or where they all run shockers- there are reasons for all scenarios for the rest of them I think.

The 2.20- given both their profiles I would like to see market support for them to increase confidence. At the moment I have 1/2 point on those two. That Williams horse ‘could’ also run away with this. I have thrown 1 point at the rest as I saw no reason not too. Again the market will guide in the 3.25 but Mystery Drama was 16s last night,and there seems to be some support. The tongue tie and falling mark looked interesting to me in what is low grade stuff. The blinkers may work their magic on the other runner. They may not and another P on the way but his price allowed a ‘trust the stats’ approach. The other two at Towcester can’t be written off given their profiles- again any big drifts pre race on those two and I will know my fate, but my money is down on them. We have enough to play with!

Good Luck however you play them, if in doubt, trust the stats (esp the general race types it seems)

Josh

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