none. no class 4+ 24f+ chases.
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Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – LIVE TEST
12.55 Muss – Shotofwine (unexp hurdlers)
2.55 Taunt – Fine Resolve (Dunn)
3.15 Towc – Vinnieslittle Lamb (V Williams 60+ days)
V Williams Chasers
3.15 Towc – Vinnieslittle Lamb
Tom George Chasers
1.55 Muss – Behind The Wire
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.05 Towcester – ELKSTONE 5/1… (+ Flashman) – UP – (hmm well, it looked good until the bottom of the hill! He has cut out twice now very tamely and for now must be avoided- Jockey looked to have a good hold of him,while still enthusiastic,but he wasn’t running away with him- maybe he is just using up too much energy,got wins in him if he can ever settle maybe. Hood/run/step back in trip clearly didn’t work. 0.75 points I wont see again on that race) This race looks intriguing and it is probably punting suicide to play in novice handicap chases too often but Elkstone caught my eye – both of these two are a pace angle, are fit, and we know they can jump. Preference for Elkstone here- on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut LTO he went off very quickly and jumped superbly at pace for the most part- he was starting to tire down the back and made a clumsy error. He was free that day and I find it of some interest that the usual hood returns, that he wore at the back end of last season. Hopefully it helps him settle better. It was also his first run of the season and he may have needed it. And he drops back in trip here. He went a pace there to my eye which suggests he could get a lead against this lot here, his slick jumping helping him on that front. They had better not hold him up! The trainer is 1/14,4 places with handicap chasers in last 5 years which is ok, and better than her top level stats of 1/37. Of interest she is also 5/14,7 places, +36 points, in handicap chases with this jockey up, so no problems on that front. This race is full of those making chase debut and/or needing the run/or hold up types. One of them (money for Dickin horse- but he is held up and making chase debut,trainer 2/27 here in handicap chases which is ok) may prove to be too good, but I hope they bounce this one out and they try and jump/gallop them silly here. Any followers should have some fun with him to the bottom of the hill anyway.
FLASHMAN… It looked at as 20f is too far and he faded the last day, but then staying further here is a positive for me. It was his record RH that put me off a bit, 0/14,1p all races, inc a few in NH. His young jockey has had a few winners and he will try and be up there also. It could be that this race is between these two for a long way out, esp if the pace/track position leads to errors in behind from those inexperienced ones trying to close. I have a bit on Elkstone,and a much smaller bit on Flashman. Not a race to go mad on by any means, but it will be interesting to watch from a pace/race set up angle at least. Do what you please with those thoughts!
I should add- Bailey and her class 4 handicap chasers (all handicap chases,inc novice) was an old micro system we tracked for a while- but I ditched that simplistic approach to try out the new portfolio above. But, she does well in class 4 handicap chases… indeed with those 5/1 or shorter SP she is 30/89,52 places, +35 SP since start of 2010, 5/13,8 places this year. .. 44/156, 76 places those going off 12/1 or shorter SP, +80 points SP. So, that could add to confidence.
That will be all for today. Post complete.