TIPS
none. no class 4+ 24f+ chases.
JUMPS ANGLES
(remember you can find research in Free Reports/Systems Tab above)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – LIVE TEST
Hurdle
12.55 Muss – Shotofwine (unexp hurdlers)
Chase
2.55 Taunt – Fine Resolve (Dunn)
3.15 Towc – Vinnieslittle Lamb (V Williams 60+ days)
V Williams Chasers
3.15 Towc – Vinnieslittle Lamb
Tom George Chasers
1.55 Muss – Behind The Wire
***
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.05 Towcester – ELKSTONE 5/1… (+ Flashman) – UP – (hmm well, it looked good until the bottom of the hill! He has cut out twice now very tamely and for now must be avoided- Jockey looked to have a good hold of him,while still enthusiastic,but he wasn’t running away with him- maybe he is just using up too much energy,got wins in him if he can ever settle maybe. Hood/run/step back in trip clearly didn’t work. 0.75 points I wont see again on that race) This race looks intriguing and it is probably punting suicide to play in novice handicap chases too often but Elkstone caught my eye – both of these two are a pace angle, are fit, and we know they can jump. Preference for Elkstone here- on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut LTO he went off very quickly and jumped superbly at pace for the most part- he was starting to tire down the back and made a clumsy error. He was free that day and I find it of some interest that the usual hood returns, that he wore at the back end of last season. Hopefully it helps him settle better. It was also his first run of the season and he may have needed it. And he drops back in trip here. He went a pace there to my eye which suggests he could get a lead against this lot here, his slick jumping helping him on that front. They had better not hold him up! The trainer is 1/14,4 places with handicap chasers in last 5 years which is ok, and better than her top level stats of 1/37. Of interest she is also 5/14,7 places, +36 points, in handicap chases with this jockey up, so no problems on that front. This race is full of those making chase debut and/or needing the run/or hold up types. One of them (money for Dickin horse- but he is held up and making chase debut,trainer 2/27 here in handicap chases which is ok) may prove to be too good, but I hope they bounce this one out and they try and jump/gallop them silly here. Any followers should have some fun with him to the bottom of the hill anyway.
FLASHMAN… It looked at as 20f is too far and he faded the last day, but then staying further here is a positive for me. It was his record RH that put me off a bit, 0/14,1p all races, inc a few in NH. His young jockey has had a few winners and he will try and be up there also. It could be that this race is between these two for a long way out, esp if the pace/track position leads to errors in behind from those inexperienced ones trying to close. I have a bit on Elkstone,and a much smaller bit on Flashman. Not a race to go mad on by any means, but it will be interesting to watch from a pace/race set up angle at least. Do what you please with those thoughts!
I should add- Bailey and her class 4 handicap chasers (all handicap chases,inc novice) was an old micro system we tracked for a while- but I ditched that simplistic approach to try out the new portfolio above. But, she does well in class 4 handicap chases… indeed with those 5/1 or shorter SP she is 30/89,52 places, +35 SP since start of 2010, 5/13,8 places this year. .. 44/156, 76 places those going off 12/1 or shorter SP, +80 points SP. So, that could add to confidence.
That will be all for today. Post complete.
36 Responses
I like DOCTOR LOOK HERE in the the 1.35 tow ew 16/1 got some decent form in the book as run well after a long break before ground should be okay thought 16/1 was big 20s with will hill but the rest 16s
antony
1.35 Towcester –G/S (S?)
Favourite has no form G-S and distance, so possibly worth opposing especially @11/8.
Doctor look here, I rated as too slow.
Movie Legend has recently moved to Lucy Wadham, 18 Nov 2016. Leighton Aspell aboard today.
History shows two good speed figures on G-S(80) and S(90), not at 23F, only gone 21F, but none in the race have gone this distance. A price of 4/1 in most recent race is interesting.
Betfair 16/1
DATE RACE CONDITIONS WGT RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR TS RPR
19Apr16 Lud 21.5GS C4NvHcH 3K 11-12 9/10 (76L Bobble Emerald 11-2) t 4/1 Kielan Woods 109 6 48
29Jan16 Don 19.5GS C5MdH 4K 11-5 7/21 (26L Big Chief Benny 11-5) t 100/1 Kielan Woods — 80 106
06Dec15 Hun 16GS C4NvH 3K 10-12 8/15 (35L Cyrius Moriviere 10-9) 40/1 Daryl Jacob — 30 91
14Nov15 Utt 16Sft C4NvH 3K 10-12 4/8 (3¾L Captain Chaos 10-12) 14/1 Gavin Sheehan — 90 103
17Oct15 Mar 16.5Gd C6NHF 1K 11-2 6/8 (15½L Braavos 11-2) 7/1 Kielan Woods — — 96
09Mar15 Str 16.5GS C5MdNHF 2K 11-4 7/10 (10L Mister Miyagi 11-4) 9/2 Daryl Jacob — 73 102
06Feb15 Kem 16Sft C5MdNHF 2K 11-4 4/14 (11½L Ok Corral 11-4) 33/1 Daryl Jacob — 38 104
Give Le Roi should go well in the 1.35 at an ok price.
Paddy Watch
2 for tomorrow
1.35 Lord of the Island 1/2pt win 9/2 Bet365
2.10 Druids Folly 1/2pt win win 9/2 Bet365
Running Total +10.75
Lord of the Island 1st
Movie Legend 2nd
Well done, 5 lengths clear!
Checked the form for Lord of the Island and nothing there!
My fun system, winner LTO, odds bigger than 6/1 ( exclude race if fav won LTO), been playing it for last 20 days up 111 points. Today’s winner Doesyourdogbite drifted from 13/2 last night to 25/1, thank you to BOG! I still don’t understand how a winner LTO goes off at 25/1 in same C4. Only three tomorrow 2.10 Tow, 3.45 Tow & 1.45 Taun, including a 25/1! I back EW for fun money.
Great results, mate. Interesting system.
Paul
could you please list your selections
Hmm yep Steve posted some stats after Lately posted LTO.. certainly more of a ‘fun approach to be used as a starting point maybe…
I can’t research the ‘excluding fav if won LTO’ angle I don’t think but ignoring that since start 2013 all runners…
6% win strike rate, £1 on every one would have lost you £5600 ! Overall they perform 25% below market expectations so in the long term will never win you money.
I had a quick dive in and there are no ‘ways in’ really –
Albeit Chepstow/Beverley/Hunt/Ripon are the only tracks in profit all runners and may be worth a closer look.
The last 20 days have clearly gone well but I would be cautious about diving in- very much a bit of fun for me! Personally Lately I would consider taking out your money and spending it while you are on the crest of a wave- the stats suggest you will give it all back and then some, at some point..
Josh
Just back in and having a look at Chelmsford and drawn to a 0-24 maiden in the 4.25 – Redalani 13.5, sired by Redback with a 6F record at Chelmsford of 3 runs 2 wins, 2 places, has been runner up 4 times all on AW 3 times at Wolves & once at Kempton last time out over 5F…This is Redalani’s first time here and she likes to lead which could make all the difference on this track and along with the sire stats here makes her interesting at the odds, 4.0 in the place market 1/2 pt E/W for me….
Looks like a few decent races tomorrow. I really like the look of Signed Request in the 15:15 at Towcester. Made an ok return over fences 2 starts ago over 3m (far better than any other run with a break of 35 days or more) and than caught the eye running well LTO beaten only 5 lenghts behind Earls Fort. Winner has gone in agian off 6lbs more before going close 2nd in a class 3 off a further 3lbs. He now drops down to a Class 5 Chase for the 1st time having been 3/4 in Class 5 Hurdles (only run without a win was off a 600+ day break) including at this track. Jockey is 2/4 on him and trainer is 4/5 +22 in handicaps at the track over the past 2 years. The early 14/1 odds were massive (only got 11s) however he still looks like good value at 8s. This doesnt look like it will take much winning. The Williams and Pauling runners could surpise but there is a lot of guesswork involved as to how good they are. Trainer hasnt had a winner recently but 8 of his last 10 runners have finished 4th of better so they all seem to be running ok.
I also like Primrose Valley in the 18:25 at Chelmsford. I am not quite sure how he hasnt won this season despite going close a few times but he is now effectively 16lbs below his last winning mark. Drops down to a class 4 for the 1st time in almost 2 years. His record on AW in races worth less than £10k reads 111112 so he is fairly automatic at this level. To add to this he is blessed enough to be drawn in stall 1. 2 of Ed Vaughan’s last 3 runners have placed so hge is going ok.
Finally I want to have a bet on Fouborg in the 14:20 at Taunton. I am not sure why he has left Skelton’s yard but I dont think Whittington (1/3 in handicap hurdles at the track) is much of a downgrade. He is clearly well handicapped (Skelton thought he was well handicapped off 119 and he is now 113) but has struggled to settle. LTO in a chase they led him to post and added earplugs which seemed to have worked. Back over hurdles if he runs anywhere close to that Kempton run 3 starts ago (2 lengths behind Valhalla now rated 135 and 5 lengths behind Brain Power who is rated 145 and wasnt far away in a Grade 1 at Punchestown) he should be winning this.
Not having a bet in it but the 1:45 at Taunton looks like a cracking race.
great shout Nick, not that I had a penny on. Knew he would be going close as money poured in- rarely wrong with that yard it seems. Tanked through that the whole way, momentarily out paced but stayed on well. Bet that was fun to watch.
Thanks Josh. Hope some of you guys got on. Back at work sadly so only saw the racing post updates but will watch it later. Stable’s other handicap chaser came 2nd at 14s so will definitely have to look at any of their runners here closely in the future.
Yes i concur Excellent value pick 11/ 1 for a 11/4 winner great stuff
Cherrs for Signef Request. Just notice PV in my tracker so going to put a few pennies on that one
Will be having a couple of small bets on 5.55 chelm Eugenie feather and Exellent George 6.25 Chelm ..also think Vinnieslittle lamb must have an excellent chance in the 3.15 Towc…
Hi Josh / All
Re: Dark Angel had a look this evening and come up with the following
Overall profile for all tracks
4707 runs, 575 wins, 1489 places, 12.22% win SR 31.63% place SR
Overall profile for AW tracks
1179 runs, 171 wins, 408 places, 14.5% win SR, 34.61% place SR
Chelmsford 18.52% win SR
Wolverhampton 16.49% win SR
Dundalk 15.69% win SR
Lingfield 14.78 win SR
Southwell 12.35% win SR
Kempton 11.23% win SR
Newcastle 9.09% win SR
In fact breaking down the sires performance on varying surfaces, tracks & / or class is consistent across the board, so all we are left with is race distance and these are broken down as follows:
5F – 120 runs, 21 wins, 45 places, 17.5% win SR, 37.5% place SR
6F – 247 runs, 36 wins, 86 places, 14.57% win SR, 34.82% place SR
7F – 304 runs, 42 wins, 101 places, 13.82% win SR, 33.22% place SR
1M – 256 runs, 39 wins, 96 places, 15.23% win SR, 37.5% place SR
1M 1/2F – 62 runs, 10 wins, 22 places, 16.13% win SR, 35.48% place SR
1M 1 1/2F – 25 runs, 1 win, 3 places, 4% win SR, 12% place SR
1M 2F – 47 runs, 7 wins, 15 places, 14.89% win SR, 31.91% place SR
1M 2 1/2F – 15 runs, 0 wins, 3 places, 0% win SR, 20% place SR
1M 3F – 12 runs, 0 wins, 4 places, 0% win SR, 33.33% place SR
1M 4F – 56 runs, 6 wins, 16 places, 10.71% win SR, 28.57 place SR
1M 4 1/2F – 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place, 0% win SR, 50% place SR
1M 5F – 1 run, 1 win, 1 place, 100% win SR, 100% place SR
1M 5 1/2F – 3 runs, 0 wins, 0 places, 0% win SR, 0% place SR
1M 6F – 9 runs, 4 wins, 8 places, 44.44% win SR, 88.89% place SR
1M 7 1/2F – 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 places, 0% win SR, 0% place SR
2M – 14 runs, 2 wins, 5 places, 14.29% win SR, 35.71% place SR
2M 1/2F – 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places, 50% win SR, 50% place SR
So for the race distance we can see that the extreme flat distances is where the sire has higher SR success and this is on all 3 surfaces (Polytrack, Tapeta & Fibresand) so if we now look at restricting distance between 1M 5F & 2M 1/2F we have the following figures:
33 runs, 9 wins, 16 places, 27.27% win SR, 48.48% place SR +33.62 SP
For me personally the win SR is a little low and although its proved profitable you would have to endure medium losing runs the longest being 10 at present, If however we just focused on 1M 6F the figures would be :
9 runs, 4 wins, 8 places, 44.44% win SR, 88.89% place SR +23.12 SP
The above also has winners on all 3 surfaces and with the 40% + SR losing runs are very unlikely to go over 5 or 6.
To Summarise:
Tracks – Any AW
Sire – Dark Angel
Distance – 1M 6F
Another Micro to add to the AW armoury…..any questions or comments happy to answer
Cheers
Steve
Many thanks for your efforts re Dark Angel, much appreciated. I am going to track his runners on the AW up until Christmas and I will report back. He has a runner today, Angel of Darkness, 5.25 Che.
Your welcome Martin, I do like Dark Angel as a sire and if a selection is a form pick and then i notice its also sired by Dark Angel then I’m quite happy as they seem to act on any surface / going / class a very consistent sire but hard to find a real angle in as no specific niche area….Be interesting to see your results though
Cheers
Steve
Taunton 2.20 Thursday
Auenwirbel looks interesting, quick and soft ground form.
Apparently was 20/1, now generally 10/1.
Summersalt won yesterday without carrying a few £. @ a sp of 17.2 Annoyed a little as the stats were stronger than i first thought so i should of played. Fav won in the other so stats were right plus also right to avoid the D omera horse who went off at 5/1.
I have profiled the aw today and will share a few thoughts for the 725 and 755. C6 1m hcp div 1 +2.
Favs 8/15 +9.98lsp and 12 place A/E 1.75 Place P/L +4.4lsp.
Last run flat 2/44 A/E 0.53 Expected wins 3.8 (interesting but tread with caution)
Last run 1 mile 3/50 A/E 0.5 Expected wins 5.95 ( solid stat)
Last run 6-15 days 0-31 ( pointer not a stat as such so tread with caution)
755 the one i think is worth a small w/p is Wasseem who is lightly raced has in form Harley booked and on sire stats should appreciate the track. Do have ? over the distance.
1/2 pt win 5.7 BF 1/2 pt place. ( Not much money about yet but at least 2.00)
Am busy over next few days will try look in and add a few thoughts if possible.
All the best if punting today.
got another bet today that has same profile as 50 to 1 winner backed last week, that is YUR NEXT in taunton 325. pulled up lto, got first time blinkers, running again quickly, exactly same as was achimato a 50 to 1 winner.
Yep, he sure is. A TTP selection also- I had to have a go- all about the blinkers and whether they work their magic, which they may not.
Did you get in the members area in the end?
Josh
What does everyone think about Same place in the Hennessey? I have just watched last year’s event and have to say he was impressive! He jumped like a stag and I have already had some 12’s and 10 to 1.
Is he in the same league as Teeton Mill or dare I say another great grey…Dessie?
Meant Smad place, bloomin predictive text thingy!!
Smad I assume you mean ahah. Just looking at some stats/trends now- albeit they must be a tad irrelevant with previous winners! Pace will be important for him and whether he can get a soft lead again- yet to look at the pace side etc, or the race at all as yet. Given how he won last year you couldn’t put anyone of at a double figure price really. Just now whether open to attack from younger legs- don’t think those older than 8 have a great record, but looking in depth now…
I can’t see Smad being out of the first three despite carrying more weight than last time. Great horse.
Barring the mighty Denman no 9 year old has won it since 1998
Gone for MONEY TEAM and PRIMROSE VALLEY in 6.25 CHELMSFORD and HALLINGS WISH and ELUSIVE COWBOY in 6.55 CHELMSFORD .Like I said I use the old dutching system and a staking plan and it does me ok..good luck today all of you!
hi josh, leaving TTP for time being, there seems lot of bets if backing all, already backing loads daily. like the the look of DR Hardman on e-mail you sent me, thinking of joining, 49% ROI is very good. just one thing about results, they are either 1 ew or 2 point win. i will be backing all at 1 point win. is it possible for you to have quick way of finding what 1 point win on all would be without me checking manually please?
thanks
malc pendrey
Hi Malcolm,
no problem on TTP front, you can dip in and out as and when- or use any of the info to fill out any of your own picks etc – or just ignore! Agree sometimes a lot of bets- that is only a problem if you are betting a lot I think- plenty have started betting £2s and £5s i suspect, if backing them all- makes it less stressful and can simply build up bank/stakes over time with any luck.
Anyway, you can use as you please!
Dr Nick… nope there is no easy way to find that out I don’t think sorry.
You could of course just half the results to give you a rough idea- which are still rather good! backing 1 point win on all won’t be any worse than the 1/2 EW approach I doubt..place % is ‘only’ around early 20%s isn’t it.. so a lot don’t place- the nature of the odds and competitive races I think. And as such having 1 point on the winners rather than 1/2 EW may well win plenty more.
It is quite a low price considering and within 1-2 months you will be able to see. Believe they do a 30 day refund as well if you ask/request one.
Josh
I hear that the Moore stable are worried about the ground in the 1.05 for Flashman, albeit the horse is in good order at home.
I like two each way today: one from the Moore stable – Hailings Wish, 6.55 Che, 12/1. And one from Gay Kelleway – 6.25 Che, September issue, 16/1. Both supposedly fighting fit!
I also like the Pauling novice in the 3.15 Tow, Lock Towers.
Good luck
Elkstone, potentially ingenious pick Josh
Quite spookily, I also put this one in my tracker after his last taking, or interesting rather, run. Certainly looks to have the potential
In the end, it was a no bet for me, even more so that Ive missed the move now, so I wont be joining you Im afraid. My reasons: If he is to run freely, Towcester will not be forgiving! The trainer form and lack of winners at the track being my second conern
But well noticed Josh that the hood is back. And the jockey stats are interesting too, if not a little bizarre – you would’ve thought Bailey would want the experienced Mr Skelton on board most of her triers! That said, no disrespect to Mr Pogson. I haven’t watched him much to be fair and he could be just as good
Anyway, good luck if you’ve got something on!
hi josh, as TTP has been doing so well, have decided to back all @ 5 win and see how goes, also as matter of interest will check out manually DR Harman @ 1 point win on all & let you know comparison ROI %. my hunch is that ROI will be bigger if 1 point on all, we shall see.
Yep suspect you may be right- with a 15% win strike rate means some long losing runs, many bets without a return but profit/roi main thing and suspect they do well.
TTP – Yep – more of a slight ‘systematic’ watching brief on the micro systems, as per the results – the general race type stats certainly performing superbly as a ‘system’ so far.
i have checked DR HARMAN to all of them @ 1 point level win bets = + 198.83 at SP ROI 39%. with BOG will be well over +200 level, and over 40% ROI, so have joined in time for hennessy meet.