The market appeared to be a guide for the Alexander runners as most, if not all, took a wild walk in the market. Still, a couple of them ran promising races to my eye in context of their breaks and with any luck they will be qualifiers at Ayr in the future- suspect they may have wins in them this season – Marlee Massie and Buffalo Balltet being the two. Both could do something on their next 1-3 starts. We shall see.
NOTE: I will be trying to unearth some ‘meeting specific’ trainer pointers for The Open Meeting this weekend. No idea what I will find as yet but I am sure there will be something of note. I will get any notes to you early Thursday evening I suspect.
Ultimate Dream (micro – distance + runs 90 days) UP
NOTE: Well Jonjo will have winners at some point again but I really don’t know what is going on with his yard – illness? Or he just has awful horses now. He has been struggling for a while and I don’t know if any change in the ground in coming weeks will turn things around. We thought that last season from Memory. Anyway, he is still ‘cold’ 0/23,5 places last 14 days, before his duds on Wednesday. Horse has had 195 days off. 0/7,2 places handicap hurdlers here 60+ days off. Jonjo can ready them of course. This one is unexposed, so always dangerous to write off, but his last three runs have been shocking – unsure if they have done anything with him during the break. Market may well guide given profile.
Jimmy The Jetplane (micro going IF GOOD) 2nd
NOTE: Bailey in form, 4/14,6 places last 14 days, as is the horse. Likes to lead, but so does the George horse – interesting to see if either can dominate.
Thomas Shelby (NHF) NR
NOTE:King 4/25,11 places last 14 days, not accounting for Wednesday just yet I don’t think, had a winner at Bangor and a few ran ok. So, no issues as to form of yard for me. Looks an open race with plenty in here who could have a say on paper- plenty of fit ones having second start also. Market may guide- given did nothing in two previous NHF races and seemed fancied enough in both of those. Always hard to second guess connections though. Can clearly go well given profile.
Moss On The Mill (all hncp+hncp c + Micro class) WON 10/1>8/1
NOTE: George in form, 7/16,10 places last 14 days. Interesting maybe that both Heskin, and to lesser extent Brennan, are both at Towcester. Only jockeys 3rd ride for trainer, but he is competent enough in handicap chases for his ability not to be a great concern.
Still Believing (micro TJC) UP
NOTE: Williams 2/11,3 places last 14 days, going OK enough.
Coeur De Fou (all hncps) UP
NOTE: George stats as above. This one ran an OK race over fences LTO. First hurdle run I think, certainly over here.
Houston Dynimo (all hncps) UP
NOTE: Pipe’s are very in and out, some running well, many not. 2/27,6 places last 14 days. In recent months I have thought this one is going to hack up making all one day. He drops into C5 here and ‘could’ get an easy lead. He got into a pace battle the last day which did for him. Clearly not getting any younger I suspect he may try and give this a good go from the front. There was the odd run of promise over the summer, albeit clearly open to attack from anything less exposed. He is very very well handicapped on some old hurdle form in 2014. This could be last chance saloon race for me, I will be having a EW nibble at that price.
Presenting Berkley (all hncps) 2nd 40/1
NOTE: Vaughan 4/28,8 places last 14 days. This one makes handicap debut and moves up in trip – so possible reasons why an improvement in form could be forthcoming. Or he could just not be very good. Strange race in which to pull off a handicap plot job maybe. He is 8/55,11 places with handicap debutants last 2 years, so does have such winners.
Well, you may have seen that I have tipped Still Believing on the free post, widely available at 5s last night. This one would be my most confident pick from those above.
The market, at this stage, seems to be indicating that Ultimate Dream and Thomas Shelby will have other days to shine. But, given the profiles of many here it is impossible to rule any out completely and plenty are a nice price. Presenting Berkley at 33s seems very weak as well, and that may be a sign. But Vaughan is 2/4,3 places at the track with handicap debutants and he makes hncp debut and steps up in trip. So not impossible albeit I may want to see market signs. I am far from enthusiastic and if I do back any of those three it will be a ‘just in case’ bet, rather than my full TTP 1 point.
3.15 – Jimmy The Jet Plane has a solid chance and not much to say there to put you off if you like his price. It looks at open little contest where you could give some sort of chance to all 5 to my eye.
Bar Still believing the two left in the 3.35 look of some interest and I have had a full TTP point (£10 for me, whereas 1 point on my ‘tips’ is £20) on each. It looks an open enough race and at double figure prices I didn’t see a reason to leave them really.
So, the possibility of a couple of clangers there- those I am least confident on do have unexposed profiles, so anything is possible!