NOTE: Members… I will be spending a chunk of Thursday trying to find any useful Trainer Pointers for the November ‘Open’ Meeting at Cheltenham. Hopefully I can find a few of interest so help steer the way. I will share a few freebie snippets also, content allowing.
STILL BELIEVING – 1.5 points win 5/1 (general) 9/2 (general) UP
BY THE BOARDWALK – 0.5 points win 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (general) 2nd
*well that wasn’t as fun to watch as Valadom. By The Boardwalk crept into it nicely and looked ready to pounce but annoyingly the George runner- who else- was plenty fit enough and jumped well, and kept galloping. He clearly had a bit in hand, while By The Boardwalk may be at the top of his ceiling. Not sure what happened to Still Believing – never really travelled which was strange given how she had gone the last twice on decent ground – slightly weak before hand. The winner was nibbled at 12s>8s which was some indication as to fitness, not a shock winner by any means – unexposed ones never are- more fool me for taking on a George chaser at Ludlow, when he is in this vein of form. Damn.
*when Stil Believing romps to victory here price will be declared at 4/1,as that is generally available as I write at 8.36am. Hopefully some of you got bigger. Suspect this one may go off at around 3,albeit 5/2 wouldn’t shock me.
Still Believing…well to those of you who have been doing just that there have been a couple of rewards this month and I am rather bullish that this may be another one- with usual caveats of luck in running/not trying to take a fence with her.
This horse is unexposed enough over fences,this her 14th run and she is a CD winner. Indeed she is 3/10,7 places all handicaps run here. The ground is fine- albeit should be noted for future she is 2/6,3 places in heavy, which she seemingly handles a lot better than many opponents she has faced in the past. But ‘winter’ Good, as this is described as by the clerk, posed no problems for me. Proven stamina, proven class, and must go RH, 3/11,7 places this was round all handicaps, 0/18,3 places going LH. She has hacked up here in a C3 hurdle off 115 so this mark isn’t a problem either. Williams is in decent enough form also- 2/12,4 places last 2 weeks – they seem to be going ok. The jockey knows her well and she is indeed a TTP stats pick, based on trainer/jockey combo record in handicaps here.
Two more pieces of the jigsaw… the last two runs are what really caught the eye. This one stays 26f/27f really well so the last two distances would have been shorter than ideal, and the races were not run to suit- small fields, lone front runners who dictated and then kicked/stayed on. But, she has ran both times as if in decent form, staying on stoutly after the last and closing to the line. That is a good sign. She is consistent and I expect a bold run here. 5/1>4/1 seemed a decent enough price in the context of this race for me.
The pace is the final piece…these two will actually be further back but I can’t make a case for those who will be up the front and there is the possibility of a battle- Jonjo’s was best the last day making all and they should try and repeat that. Basford Ben also likes to get on with it, and there are a couple more pace pushers. Miss Serious tried to make all the last day also. So, it should be run at a decent clip and stalking may be no bad thing here…
By The Boardwalk.. I will be more brief here but he is decent enough form and 15/2, 8/1 looked a tad big. I am going to say that the ground was too firm the last day at Exeter. He travelled well into the race 4 out or so but when asked he didn’t pick up. There was some firm about that day. IF that is the reason, he is too big here. It could be that the handicapper has him where he wants him, and he doesn’t like a battle- needs delivering late. But, this race isn’t as deep as that Exeter one for me and he still ran ok. This could fall apart a bit in the latter stages and he may have a say. Bailey continues in flying form and this race will tell us more about where he is at. I wanted to pay a little to find out.
Of the rest…
Well I was struggling to make a case for anything else at the prices and those two above may finish 1-2- probably not but you can but hope! Jonjo’s horse was 5/2 last evening which was way too short. He is arguably getting to a more backable price but he is a thinker and I was far from impressed with his jumping LTO. I think these fences may find him out. He also takes a step up in class and that last race was poor quality. Jonjo is also having a nightmare time at the moment. At 5/2 he was there to be taken on, and I couldn’t back him with stolen money I don’t think- happy for him to prove me wrong, which many a race horse will do over the coming months.
Big Casino seemed short at 4s for a 10yo with ‘summer’ form. Again that race the last day was not the strongest and he is now 0/4,0 places going RH over fences. 0/6,1 p 24f +, 0/10,3 places 8+ runners over fences. He has a few niggles at that price for me. He is in form though and could play a role. He may fade late on though, albeit this isn’t the stiffest of 3 miles around here. Miss Serious – she is unexposed and could win this – but she has fallen the last twice and on that basis I can’t have her. She also has class to prove and could be another with ‘summer form’ She is small and these fences take some jumping here it seems- a couple of chase races already this season there has been absolute carnage. Hopefully she gets round but I wouldn’t be confident. If she does, she may have a say.
Basford Ben- the old boy is rather admirable and that last run suggests he has races in him again this year. I hope it isn’t this one. He is best on really stiff tracks and getting the oppo on the stretch. He will try and lead and bowl along- but he is a bit one paced to my eye, a true galloper- at certain tracks that is enough as he gallops them into the ground, but I am not sure he will be able to get away around here. I also think he may be a tad high in the weights and the trainer could be in better form. Something to outpace him up the home stretch for me. I may have that wrong. He may come down the weights in the coming weeks at strike at Carlisle after Christmas at some point.
Moss on The Mill has it to prove as a chaser and has been hurdling an awful long time. Of some note I think that Heskin, and to a lesser extent, Brennan, are at Towcester. I would want to see signs of life in the market but it is that man George. Unexposed over fences, 0/3,0 places- but needs to show more. Also a fitness questions. Was happy to leave. Not a fall of your seat winner though if putting it all together, but I would want to see something over fences first. Seems to be some money for the old boy On The Bridge but he is 2/2 around here and that may count for something. He does look woefully out of form though to my eye, having done very little on his last 6 runs. Also 0/20,1 place when going off 0ver 6/1 – so if he is really punted I may take note. Letbeso- not sure if he is good enough and in any case the wheels seem to have come off the last twice. Was happy to leave.
So, that is the lot. Both selections will stalk those in front and hopefully they can get in a rhythm and pounce as all those in front falter up the home straight. We shall see. I am very comfortable not having money on anything else in here and they can prove me wrong. If these two run up to their best, I think it is between them on my reading of the race.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Given no jumps angles, some qualifiers from my AW stats pack that may be worth a second glance.. (remember you can get a free sample of this guide, and maybe buy the full version, HERE>>>)
1.55 – Krystallite
2.55 – Anna Barkova
3.25 – Deep Resolve
4.55 – Love Power
5.25 – High Waves
6.55 – Pivotman (booking myself back into the opticians, that one not a 5f-5.5f race either!) 7.25 – Space War (ignore that,he doesn’t qualify!- You know what will happen now…)
That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.