TTP Jumps Notes: 08/11/16 (COMPLETE)

SEDGEFIELD 

2.40

Alderbrook Lad (hncp c) UP

Roxyfet (hncp c) UP

NOTE: both… trainer is a bit ‘cold’ at the moment, 0/28,1 place last 14 days, 2/52,3 places all runners last 30 days. Alderbrook Lad – this old boy seems a bit out of sorts and the market may guide- I think the jockey on Roxyfet would have had the choice. Conditions are ok and he is coming back down the handicap, now 5lb below his last winning mark. Roxyfet – this 6 year old is having his 23rd chase start. Conditions look ok, second run in C3 so yet to prove isn’t up to this level. In last couple of years appears he has never had more than 60 days off so record after a break hard to judge. Trainer is 6/54,11 places with handicap chasers 60+ days off, so can ready them albeit not prolific.

3.10

Mo Chalin (micro, horse runs this season) 2nd 10/1>13/2

NOTE: McCain 4/26,10 places in the last 14 days. This one is lightly raced and there could be more to come – in truth most in this field have an ‘unexposed could be anything’ profile about them. The ‘in running’ notes from that Fakenham run at back end of last season suggest he may be a bit of a shirker and may not like a battle- we shall see. McCain’s yard has somewhat been rejuvenated this year after illness last season – so form for his runners last year should be treated with some caution I think. At least until the horse has proved they are no good this season!  McCain can ready them after a break albeit you would be very poor backing them all. 16/204, 46 places handicap hurdles 60+ days off. But, 2/15,4 places with such runners at this track.

HUNTINGDON 

2.20

Ruacana (micro, going only IF SOFT) DNQ

NOTE: looks unlikely to qualify on this angle.

3.20

Oh So Fruity (all hncp+hncp h+micro age) UP 10/1

NOTE: Moore in form, 8/28,11 places in last 14 days. Horse is lightly raced and unexposed. Moore 10/114,28 places with handicap hurdlers 60+ days off. 1/7 at the track. Trainer rarely uses this jockey but they are 2/12,2 places in handicaps together.

3.55

Samburu Shujaa (NHF) UP

NOTE: Hobbs 3/25,11 places last 14 days. This one was meant to run at Exeter the other day but was pulled out as the ground was too firm- also because I think they thought he may not be quick enough – there were some flat bred horses in that race. That is what I picked up when Sarah Hobbs was interviewed and I got the impression they liked this one a little bit. Interesting that they have come to another track where they do well in these races. We shall see.

NO qualifiers at Lingfield.

My View:

Bar the 2.40 really, everything else has a profile where there will be more to come at some point/we have not seen the best of them. They are all decent enough prices also. They either never been on a racetrack or are returning after lengthy breaks and the market can sometimes guide as to fitness/readiness. At this early stage they all look a bit weak in the market so we shall see, sometimes it doesn’t have a clue. The 2.40 is tricky – I am not eager to go backing both with my usual TTP 1 point stake given they both have a few questions to answer,the trainer is cold,and there are a few more interesting ones here. They may also not be good enough. On the flip side I have got too many wrong in the 10/1+ category for my liking. Having said that at their very best they could both mix it to a point- and therefore dangerous for me, at their prices, to be totally cold to their chances. Blakemount could not be 100% fit, the Ellison horse could not stay,and Lord Wishes needs plenty of cajoling. It isn’t impossible those three run below their best/don’t fulfil potential today – in that scenario it becomes a rather open race. A drift on Roxyfet may indicate he isn’t fit.

That will be all for today. Good luck whatever you back.

Josh