Whoosh... Well that was a fun day for Team RTP as I like to call are little community here on these pages. Steve gave a rather confident detailed write up in the comments for the 4/1 winner of the 6.50. Super. I managed to chip in with a rare Stats/Angles winner who won rather comfortably at 9/2- he looked like the ‘perfect’ handicap hurlde debutant pick,and that appraoch should find a few more, and at bigger prices, in the weeks ahead.
Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 has had a stormer of a week, around +26 points if having one point win on everything. It seems that trusting the stats is the best approach! They seem to be proving themselves. That ‘portfolio’ is steaming past the +76 points mark in what will be 6 weeks come Sunday I think. Blimey. £760 to £10 bets. Not all users will have the same figures of course but everyone should be in profit to some extent, and that is the main thing. It is good fun also. There look to be a few of interest on Saturday.
Onto Saturday’s free post…
Present Man – 1.5 points win – 11/2 (PP) 5/1|9/2 (general)
Roc D’Apsis – 0.5 points win – 14/1 (general)
Why these two…
Well there are a handful of stats I have found it hard to ignore as a guide… mainly in last 10 years those carrying 11-8 or more are 0/33,3 places. Those with 12 or more handicap chase runs under belt are 0/34,5 places. Just using those two as a guide only leaves three I think- Present Man, Fingerontheswitch and Set List.
I am happy to leave those with 11-8 or more. Two are short enough anyway I suppose and a few have form questions. All 4 have fitness questions and I have got a bit tired of taking the odd chance on fitness etc.
Present Man – I think his price here is more than fair and given the fact he is fit, front runs, likes the track, gallops, and importantly gets good to firm (this looks likely to be on the fast side) and is in the unexposed ‘could be anything’ category, I thought he should be fav in here. Nicholls continues in blistering form and has won this race a few times. I suspect this may have been a plan and he hacked up as he pleased the last day. I think he will try and gallop these into submission from the front. There is a slight stamina niggle but only that. He is only 6 and this could be his year, having strengthened up. His breeding and a few runs last season offers plenty of hope. I like the fact he is fit, no excuses there. AND, unlike at Ascot on reflection, there will be no excuse as to the going. The rain appears to have missed them and this could be quick still. His price looks fair to me and a couple of points too big. The jockey knows him and he could have plenty to come over this trip this year. What with the stats, and his trainer, everything points to a good run.
Roc D’Apsis – I have my doubt as to his chance here if truth be told but given the form of the stable and fact this could have been the target, I wanted to have something on given his price. It would be sickening if he did win with nothing on- Ziga Boy is giving me a few nightmares at his price also- I may rade the sofa for some just in case change to put on him, esp if market indicates he may be fit (have my doubts) Anyway, ‘the’ Rock… I have stamina doubts albeit at times, like Kempton, he has given impression he wants this trip. Ground looks to be fine I think, well Good is. He was also just a bit too poor for me the last day but if this was the target that may be why. Heskin has gone to Aintree which is interesting but Paddy B knows the horse and you never know, it may have been the request of the owners- I suspect Brennan could have ridden Owen Na View at Aintree if he had wanted. There may be ‘ways in’ this year from trying to think about Heskin and Brennan and where they are on any given day. So, while I have a few niggles he is a very big price here- and should be spot on for this. Brennan may race him more prominently and hopefully he out-runs these odds. The 1-2 maybe!
What of the rest…
Ziga Boy is the other interesting one at a price but he usually needs the run and his last two runs at back end of last season were poor. I also have no idea if he will like this firmer surface and while he has a course win, I think he is better going the other way, esp at this level. IF 100% here and if handling the ground, he could have a say. He beat Coologue last season well enough who won at Chelts a couple weeks back. His form is decent enough. Could be more to come from him this season.
I am more than comfortable not thinking about/backing anything else in here. I suppose Gentleman Jon is interesting but Present Man thumped him a couple runs back, and thumped the second that day- Gentleman Jon beat the second in that race LTO, but made hard enough work of it. He could out-run his odds but it looks like Present Man has his measure to my eye. Of course if PM doesn’t stay then that may turn that upside down,but I am as confident as you can be that he will stay, for one that hasn’t yet ‘proven’ it.
The top 4 in the weights I am happy to leave based on that trend and the fact they have all had plenty of time off the track. They can beat me. I was never destined to back them in this race if one of them does win. 10/3 and 6/1 for two of them is short enough in that context.
That leaves the bottom three of the card who I don’t think are good enough for this. Set List looks a summer horse and I would be surprised if he is good enough to win this. Trainer is in for but this is the deepest race he has been in for me. That last run was poor. Bob Tucker looks out of sorts. Fingerontheswitch is unexposed but maybe a bit too inexperienced and this is a big step up in the chasing game. I was happy to leave him- albeit lightly raced so I wouldn’t fall of my seat if he won, just be mildly surprised. Single figure price also, not a biggie. Jockey only 3/73 at track as well, if stats like that are of interest.
PACE… Present Man will try and make all. Ziga Boy may try and be up there but if not sharp may struggle to lay up. Set List races prominently but again may not be good enough to lay up. Present Man’s jumping may ensure he is able to dictate. IF he gets into a rhythm early and gets a lead, we will have something to cheer over the last couple I think. I reckon he may just keep finding. A flashing Grey will be coming late, will probably clatter the last, finish second and I will be annoyed I didn’t back him EW! 🙂
So, that will do for that race. I won’t tip in any others on Saturday.
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
2.05 Aint – Kruzhlinin – (improve for run/fresh)
1.00 Winc- Ballydague Lady (2nd run after break)
3.10 Aint – Some Buckle (T George,same distance)
3.20 Winc- Roc D’Apsis (T George,same distance)
I think that may be it for Saturday albeit I am off to Aintree and may run through with some ‘notes’. It may be useful for me, and ensure I stay disciplined! I may get round to doing that this evening…
Race 1 – No idea. I will use my dodgy ‘paddock eye’ and wont be going mad in this race, trackside. One of them will get a muggy £5. Numbers 1,2,7,8 look of most interest – Snowden’s looks solid but the others have more scope for improvement. The eye may help, at least for ruling out any tubby ones (I am ok at that now)
Race 2 – a ‘go to the bar’ race – well, before the race. And I will look at them, and then just watch.
Race 3 – The first interesting race. Young Dillon is a TTP stats pick horse and he looks solid enough here in what looks a very strange race- a few failed chase runs recently for many etc. Nicholls is 0/31,3 places at the track in the last year (may put that right at this meeting), Jonjo is 0/28,5 places last 14 days and I am not touching his at the moment. Pipe has gone quiet, 2/27 last 14 days. He is ‘only’ 1/27,4 places here in handicap hurdles last 5 years. His look interesting but it isn’t a great race. I don’t know what is up with the Hobbs horse- not over his GN run/whatever problems he may have had. Could bounce back and is a micro selection above. Far from strong views in this race but if Young Dillon repeats his last two handicap runs, that would be enough to be in the mix here I think.
Race 4 – The bar will be calling again!
Race 5 – Interesting again. We/I backed Princetonroyal the last day – I think he may struggle around here. he is a small horse without much scope and the capper may have him. He will try and lead for a time. Splash Of Ginge interests me. I liked how he went the last day, running well for a long way. He ran there/cut out there as if he needed the run. He will be right near the front here and could give it a good go. He looks of some interest to me and NTD is still in good form. Course winner. My ‘eye’ may be useful as to the readiness of Thomas Brown who may be of some interest albeit odd jockey booking. Some Buckle is of interest also- I will use my eye to see if he is fit- if he has a tummy on him like Forgotten Gold the last day- same trainer- I will leave him. If he looks tight I may have a go. Another TTP stats pick. He is an inconsistent sort but has an ok record after a break.
Race 6 – Again my ‘eye’ may come in useful as to the fitness of the top 4 in the weights here. Ravens Tower looks of some interest to me. He likes soft and there has been a bit of rain about. He also bounced back to form the last day and may not quite stay that trip. This could suit more and the trainer is in ok form. 7s seems of interest to me having had a quick glance. Katachenko is of interest if fit here. He won for ‘us’ at Aintree at 16s LTO- paying for a few losers in the process! He is young and unexposed and his owner loves a winner here as we know. Parsnip Pete has a decent chance but 3s seems short enough for one his age to me, against a few more interesting types. Having said that he is the ‘solid’ option. Still Ravens Tower and McCains are drawing me in at the moment.
Race 7 – no strong views and I will use my eye to pick something out for another muggy £5. The George horse looks well fancied.
So, there are some brief thoughts. I will look in a bit more depth and treat those above with some caution! It doesn’t look like a day to go mad but Aintree is always a good day out.
If you are there, do say hello.
That will be all for Saturday.
Good Luck with any bets.
p.s What do you fancy on the day?