TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 05/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Quals+ Notes+My View: for Aintree/Kelso/Wincanton up so far…

NOTE: There are some Members only trends for Badger Ales trophy HERE>>>

 

AINTREE

(note- as an aside, possibly, that Heskin comes to Aintree and does not ride Roc ‘Apsis at Wincanton. That may not be a pointer to his chances as such,Brennan good record on him,no bad replacement,but maybe a pointer to how well some of George’s at Aintree may be fancied…)

2.05

Young Dillon (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Newland 1/12,2 places last 14 days. 3/11,6 places in hurdles and has been running ok, in what could be described as ‘summer form’. All race conditions fine and stays well enough. Race looks an odd one, full of a few who have been chasing who have something to prove.

3.10

Some Buckle Fell (all hncps + micro TJC- heskin replacing brennan in effect)

NOTE: Trainer 6/17,10 places last 14 days, safe to say ‘in form’. returns to his care after poor spell with Nicholls, bar one run. Unexposed still and was good after a break for both trainers in the past. Repeats that Haydock run and you would have thought he would be in the mix, if fit.

3.45

Parsnip Pete UP (all hncps + TJC as above)

NOTE: George again, this one seems well fancied. 3s may seem short enough to my eyes at first glance for a 10 year old up against many who are more lightly raced. Still well handicapped on some old form and goes well enough after a break. Also likes the track. Should be a bit of pace to track here also.

 

KELSO 

1.45

Bourne (all hncps) UP

NOTE: trainer 3/27,11 places last 14 days. Horse seems to be in the form of his life. Up in class here.

2.20

Un Noble Fell (all hncps + micros… class+90 days)

NOTE: Richards 2/14,6 places and are running well enough. His chaser at Carlisle ran a blinder after a break – he can get them fit after a break if desired. Horse 3/6,4 places over fences and could be more to come this year. Has won after break/ran well after a break.

2.55

The Herds Garden UP (all hndcps+hncp c)

NOTE: McCain again. Ran well behind a good one in a chase the last day, to my eye at least. That winner has since come out and won since, and looks a nice type.

4.00

The Vocalist 2nd (NHF- some of smaller numbers,trainer 2/3)

NOTE: trainer 0/3,1 place last 30 days. Not much else to go on, market may guide but suspect this one has been sent to run a good race.

 

WINCANTON 

2.10

Zubayr (hncp h) Fell

NOTE: Nicholls 8/29.17 places last 14 days. Horse has an unexposed profile. My reading of form in general can be questionable, esp in a hurdle race, but if the King horse runs as he did the last day I would have thought he will take the beating here. Of course if he falters this one could be there to mop up.

2.45

Antartica De Thaix (hncp h) 2nd

NOTE: Nicholls again. This one is unexposed and if market believe this is between two of them, him being one. The only two that are below 7/1 at moment i believe.

On Demand (micro – runs this season) WON 4/1 (after R4)

NOTE: Tizzard in form, 9/38,17 places. This one has fitness on his side and jockey rode first winner recently, on his first ride. Quite a step up in class though. Interesting.

 

3.20

Gentleman Jon (micro – runs this season) WON 10/1 (after R4)

NOTE: Tizzard stats again. I have ‘tipped’ in this race and I can’t quite see him overturning form with Present Man. BUT, having said that his win LTO was his first over a trip, that time 27f. Albeit a small runner race he seemed to enjoy it and he is 12s. I wont sit here and say he cant win given his profile. If Present Man doesn’t stay, and this one does, you never know.

3.55

As And When (NHF) 2nd

NOTE: Nicholls again. 5/4, clearly fancied to go well.

***

BONUS 

1.10 Kelso – Misfits (novice handicaps) 2nd 9/1

NOTE: Well Hexham demonstrated that Russell seems to be coming into form well enough. This one is having his first chase and at around 9/1 may look of some interest. A decent price on which to take a chance on one with this profile maybe.

 

My View:

Well my gut wont be trusted again having mused that Russell may have a poor day- only the treble up – pretty dire if you ask me! 🙂 There seem to be plenty of short priced horses here and I don’t think there is a single horse you could confidently rule out- I have my doubts about Gentleman Jon but even I may have a saver at that price- he could run a good race albeit I prefer a couple of others. But, last Saturday is still in my mind.

My Aintree based sources – Paul Ferguson to be precise – inform me that it has been raining on and off all day- it certainly has in Liverpool. It looks like we will want horses there who handle ground on the soft side but you can never truly tell given it has been very dry.

There isn’t much more to add to that lot. All look worthy of some consideration and again a lot will come down to price.

As we move through week 6 it is becoming clear that as systematic approaches go, this portfolio of track stats is working very well.

Good Luck with your bets.

 

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