Post complete…three shortlist horses and a few jumps notes of interest…

NEW POST: If you missed my email etc I have written a new ‘diary’ post. If you plan on betting in a handicap chase in the coming months you may find it of some interest. Read that HERE>>>








Three from the flat with some stats of interest, to use as a starting point. Albeit having said that given the type of stats and profile of horses, what they have done on paper to date may not help too much…

  • 2.30 Notts – Mistress Quickly 9/2- (UP 9/2> 9/4) Beckett is 3/11, 5 places with 2yo newcomers here and the trainer is ‘in form’. And, that is about it really. Before his third winner here with these types his stats were good, 2/9, 4 places. The last qualifier turned up when the trainer was also in form. I left him as he was 20/1. The market was no guide as he bolted up. That was earlier in the season. So, no doubt this micro will pay over-time. 
  • 5.00 Notts – Versant – 9/1 – (UP 8/1, pulled hard for 10f,faded) The trainer is 2/8, 4 places with handicap debutants in the last year which suggests some kind of change in approach given I don’t think the stats before that were much to shout home about. The horse steps up in trip which at least is doing something different. I have no idea as to the soft ground and he is usually held up, or has been. Could be tough coming from the back in a slog here. Trainer is 1/7, 3 places last 14 days and 1/1 all runners at the track to date. 0/6, 1 place with jockey on flat, has won for him on AW. 
  • 5.10 Notts – Cockney Island – 10/1 – (UP, 14/1, 4th) A bit like above, McBride is 3/9, 4 places with handicap debutants in last year, 1/3 at the track. SDS maintains the ride and I wonder if he recommended the drop in trip after the last run. Trainer/jockey are 3/16, 3 places in flat handicaps, 1/3 at track. Interesting enough. 



Using my TTP: Jumps 2016/17 for Bangor, the following could be of some interest…

3.10  – Johns Spirit (trainer’s handicap chase record here) (UP 13/8>10/11- you can’t tell anything from that race for me. Three late non runners, including another pace angle, meant GG was left to dictate a very slow pace. Hard to know what ability JS has left but given he is used to winning large field cavalry charges at a stiff Cheltenham,that wasn’t a race run to suit. Poor ride as well though, far too far off the pace for a galloper, rather than a quickener. GG jumped to the left and didn’t look the easiest. Not sure if you would want to back him at a short price again.) 

4.50 – Leighton’s Lass (trainer’s record in all handicaps here) (UP, 15/2>14/1…market spoke for this one. Didn’t seemingly improve for handicap debut or step up in trip) 


Network Rouge 7/2 | 4/1 ??

Alan Potts… I didn’t go into too much on the novice chasers in that article above but his approach was very much to go with proven chase winners who had shown recent form. With that in mind I had a last minute dabble on the Dalgleish winner at Sedgefield earlier at 11/4, which seemed big given that profile. (coincidentally Dalgleish now 8/13 with his chasers!) But, you don’t want to hear about that. Of more interest could be Net Work Rouge in the 2.40 Bangor who has a similar profile. 

Now, he could not be good enough but with the headgear/tongue tie combo LTO he made all and won well. He could try the same again here and might make 7/2 look generous. The fav is fav because of his hurdles form, which if he repeats he probably wins. BUT, he has fitness and more importantly jumping to prove. The Longsdon horse has had a break and didn’t pull up any trees on his debut but may learn from it. Rolling Maul spent an age over hurdles and is 0/3,0 places in this sphere. 

So, this isn’t a tip – more experimenting for myself really. Interesting how this simple approach to Novice Chases may develop. I have never looked at these races before with betting in mind. This one should try and make all if responding to the headgear again. If the Vaughan horse jumps he probably takes this. Given how long he spent over hurdles, that is an if at that short price. 

Well the outsider took the spoils there, maybe laying the fav was the play,albeit that is an ‘after the race’ thought and that isn’t something I ever do. I won’t be engaging in those races very often but suspect taking on classy hurdlers against more experienced, in form,chasers may pay over time- of course you have to pick the right one to take them on with! Plenty of them will win of course, but the odds on the odd winner may make up for it. 



J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds)

8.10 – Indulged

‘Bonus’ – One from the Appleby 3yo handicap micro angle I am tracking…

4.05 Notts – Hijran- UP 25/1





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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. I subscribed yesterday to keiran woods morning value service. has made + 3540 points profit to 1 point stakes in 5 years 2months, that is an average monthly profit of + 57 for 62 months @ 1 point win! truly impressive.
    it is expensive, paid £320 for 3months, received tips late, so he said can have free, will start subscription from today. I made +5.2 profit @ £17 wins = + £88 on main bets. he the gave 2 “of interest bets” both in 540 @ wolverhampton, both over 100 to 1 on betfair. not sure about what staking these are meant to be if at all?
    anyway put £2 win on both on betfair, one was quinteo, got 109 to 1. that won! sp only 12 to 1. total won on day was £304 for free bets! now only need win £17 in next 3 months to show profit. I have e-mailed him about what
    the staking for of interest bets, what a start !

    1. Yep Kieran is a fine value judge and very profitable over time to boot. His service won’t suit everyone but worth trying if you like tips etc. His approach works but there are a lot of bets on most days and there are log losing runs. That won’t suit some people, but others will enjoy that amount of action and given profits, won’t mind the odd losing run. He knows value when he sees it, for sure. Good luck.

    1. Cheers Martin. Carl Nicholson tipped it up last night at 6s at BFSP. Since, like most I suspect, they’ll only let me have about 25p on I didn’t even bother trying. Best price elsewhere was 9/2 when I logged on – no e-mail for some reason – so I left it. Possibly a bad decision, but you have to make a value judgement and 25% below recommended price is one where I’m happy to save my stake in the long term.

      1. Makes me wonder whether BFSP are in collusion with some of these tipsters that qoute BFSP prices the previous evening.As you say,the small amount they let you have on, allows them to see where the money going with small outlays and essentially allowing the tipsters to boost there p/l.Am always wary of tipsters using sportsbook (night before) prices on their tips, and i would be surprised if more than 10pc or any get on at their prices.Also in this day and age,tipsters should show their figures on prices quoted aswell as BOG as i know that is another thing being made redundant to the regular punter.

        1. To clarify…are we talking Betfair SP, or Betfair Sports Book… I am assuming the latter. BFSP i read as Betfair SP on the exchange, but that is just me! Agree about Sportsbook- you can’t record results just using that bookie alone as the recommended price. Nicholson is in with the Betting School guys I believe – well they promote his service a bit- so would like to think it is all straight!

          1. I would be surprised if he is actually colluding with them however the traders at the bookies aren’t mugs either. You would think the good ones actually make it worth their time to spot the good tipsters who have a large following and restrict the liability on the tips picked (as well as mark up people who clearly follow them). One reason I have never been a fan of following popular free tipsters.

          2. To clarify as blueboy used BFSB as sportsbook as did I. Was not directing my point at carl(used before and very good) it’s tipsters in general.Every descent punter is aware now of the stupid prices sportsbook put up and i just don’t like the fact that some tipsters use this to help their profit margins when they damn well know that the majority of their followers will not get on at prices for love nor money.

          3. Ha, sorry Josh…BFSB I meant. He’s a straight bloke, Carl Nicholson, although I don’t agree with him quoting early BFSB prices when they’re out of synch with the rest of the market, which they can be (they’re usually the first up with 365). Otherwise no problems with him, the Racing Diary service is top class.

  2. Hi Josh
    To clarify re Carl Nicholson it is Betfair Sportsbook, been a member of his for years he’s totally straight just does what do most tipster do and advertise to the best price available. It is of course a paid service so he probably wouldn’t want his tips being given out before they run.

    1. Yep I agree Colin, his services very well respected and he clearly knows his stuff. Yep I quite agree! Don’t think Paul was doing that, it was Martin’s tip from his Moore sources.

    2. I only referenced it ‘cos the price had gone Colin. I can’t see Carl minding the good publicity, mate, tipping a 6/1 price about a general 5/2 shot (even if you can’t get on).

  3. Hi all

    Leading on from last evening and a test post at Wolves I have gathered similar data this evening at Kempton but also included the class of todays race to see if this fares better the first race is below with the rest to follow:

    5.40 Kempton – Westbourne Grove 4.3 & Edith Weston 12.0 (Showcasing 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)


    1. 6.10 Kempton – Dommyah 4.9 (Exceed & Excel 3 runs 1 win 2 places)
      6.10 Kempton – Magical Dreamer 3.25 (Acclamation 8 runs, 1 win 6 places)
      6.10 Kempton – Parlance 8.4 (Invincible Spirit 7 runs, 1 win, 3 places)

      6.40 Kempton – Tundra 15.5 (Bated Breath 1 run 1 win, 1 place)
      6.40 Kempton – Dubai One 2.2 (Exceed & Excel 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
      6.40 Kempton – Bombay Dream 23.0 (Sepoy 3 runs, 1 win, 3 places)

      7.10 Kempton – Total Star 3.1 (Pivotal 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

      7.40 Kempton – Aventinus 3.65 & Glorious Artist 7.8 (Zoffany 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

      8.10 Kempton – Charlies Mate 4.5 (Myboycharlie 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
      8.10 Kempton – Biotic 16.5 & Takheer 400.0 (Aqlaam 3 runs, 1 win 1 place)

      8.40 Kempton – Overlord 9.8 (Lawman 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
      8.40 Kempton – Iballisticvin 3.7 & Power Up 19.0 (Rail link 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)

      9.10 Kempton – Hardy Black 15.0 (Pastoral Pursuits 2 runs, 1 win 1place)
      9.10 Kempton – Swiss Cross 16.0 (Cape Cross 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

      All the above odds are Betfair current prices hopefully a winner or 3 there


          1. Thanks Mozzer that certainly went better than expected just the 6 winners lol…..although mostly shorties up until the last one…still may be onto something will post up the same format for Newcastle tomorrow


          2. Yep top work. Didn’t have a penny on mind, next time! That combination with class app looks worth following some more.

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