NEW POST: If you missed my email etc I have written a new ‘diary’ post. If you plan on betting in a handicap chase in the coming months you may find it of some interest. Read that HERE>>>
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Three from the flat with some stats of interest, to use as a starting point. Albeit having said that given the type of stats and profile of horses, what they have done on paper to date may not help too much…
- 2.30 Notts – Mistress Quickly 9/2- (UP 9/2> 9/4) Beckett is 3/11, 5 places with 2yo newcomers here and the trainer is ‘in form’. And, that is about it really. Before his third winner here with these types his stats were good, 2/9, 4 places. The last qualifier turned up when the trainer was also in form. I left him as he was 20/1. The market was no guide as he bolted up. That was earlier in the season. So, no doubt this micro will pay over-time.
- 5.00 Notts – Versant – 9/1 – (UP 8/1, pulled hard for 10f,faded) The trainer is 2/8, 4 places with handicap debutants in the last year which suggests some kind of change in approach given I don’t think the stats before that were much to shout home about. The horse steps up in trip which at least is doing something different. I have no idea as to the soft ground and he is usually held up, or has been. Could be tough coming from the back in a slog here. Trainer is 1/7, 3 places last 14 days and 1/1 all runners at the track to date. 0/6, 1 place with jockey on flat, has won for him on AW.
- 5.10 Notts – Cockney Island – 10/1 – (UP, 14/1, 4th) A bit like above, McBride is 3/9, 4 places with handicap debutants in last year, 1/3 at the track. SDS maintains the ride and I wonder if he recommended the drop in trip after the last run. Trainer/jockey are 3/16, 3 places in flat handicaps, 1/3 at track. Interesting enough.
Using my TTP: Jumps 2016/17 for Bangor, the following could be of some interest…
3.10 – Johns Spirit (trainer’s handicap chase record here) (UP 13/8>10/11- you can’t tell anything from that race for me. Three late non runners, including another pace angle, meant GG was left to dictate a very slow pace. Hard to know what ability JS has left but given he is used to winning large field cavalry charges at a stiff Cheltenham,that wasn’t a race run to suit. Poor ride as well though, far too far off the pace for a galloper, rather than a quickener. GG jumped to the left and didn’t look the easiest. Not sure if you would want to back him at a short price again.)
4.50 – Leighton’s Lass (trainer’s record in all handicaps here) (UP, 15/2>14/1…market spoke for this one. Didn’t seemingly improve for handicap debut or step up in trip)
Network Rouge 7/2 | 4/1 ??
Alan Potts… I didn’t go into too much on the novice chasers in that article above but his approach was very much to go with proven chase winners who had shown recent form. With that in mind I had a last minute dabble on the Dalgleish winner at Sedgefield earlier at 11/4, which seemed big given that profile. (coincidentally Dalgleish now 8/13 with his chasers!) But, you don’t want to hear about that. Of more interest could be Net Work Rouge in the 2.40 Bangor who has a similar profile.
Now, he could not be good enough but with the headgear/tongue tie combo LTO he made all and won well. He could try the same again here and might make 7/2 look generous. The fav is fav because of his hurdles form, which if he repeats he probably wins. BUT, he has fitness and more importantly jumping to prove. The Longsdon horse has had a break and didn’t pull up any trees on his debut but may learn from it. Rolling Maul spent an age over hurdles and is 0/3,0 places in this sphere.
So, this isn’t a tip – more experimenting for myself really. Interesting how this simple approach to Novice Chases may develop. I have never looked at these races before with betting in mind. This one should try and make all if responding to the headgear again. If the Vaughan horse jumps he probably takes this. Given how long he spent over hurdles, that is an if at that short price.
Well the outsider took the spoils there, maybe laying the fav was the play,albeit that is an ‘after the race’ thought and that isn’t something I ever do. I won’t be engaging in those races very often but suspect taking on classy hurdlers against more experienced, in form,chasers may pay over time- of course you have to pick the right one to take them on with! Plenty of them will win of course, but the odds on the odd winner may make up for it.
J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds)
8.10 – Indulged
‘Bonus’ – One from the Appleby 3yo handicap micro angle I am tracking…
4.05 Notts – Hijran- UP 25/1
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS