FREE DAILY POST: 29/09/16 (COMPLETE)

 

 

TIPS 

4.10 War – No Bet.

I don’t think there is a bet in here for me personally. I think you could give all of them bar the Sherwood horse some sort of chance. My preference, if I had to bet, would be for Ready Token, (WON, touched 7/2 and 4/1. Wish he was 4s this morning, in end made 11/4 look decent enough,albeit market rival fell early)  and if he was 4/1 or something I may have put him up. 11/4 could be ok but that is just on the short end for me. I think he will try and lead – he will be up there with Velator in any case- he is a progressive CD winner who is open to more improvement. He has won after similar breaks and I don’t think fitness will be a problem. Velator isn’t getting any quicker and is a bit of a plodder these days. That may be enough but given his profile, against some less exposed sorts, I wouldn’t want to be with him. Follow The Swollow could be anything but clearly is a tricky beast having run out LTO. That was a weak enough chase at Hexham but he hadn’t been asked for his effort at the time. I couldn’t back Benzel at 9/4. That is short enough. He hosed up in a novice handicap chase LTO and I am cautious as to form from those races given the types of horses in them. But, he is open to progress and clearly won’t be a shock winner. It could be that he is just a ‘summer horse’ whereas the Longsdon runner could be a ‘winter horse’ if that makes sense.No Buts would have the ability but has fitness to prove and a liking for a sound surface. He may be one to follow on his next few starts as the trainer’s horses seem to be going well. If he is ready to go he may not be far away.

So, a tricky race I am happy to leave. Analysis wise it would be good to see Ready Token take this. 11/4 is just a tad too skinny for me. You may think it is a decent price.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

  • 7.10 Chelm: Jumping Jack 5/1 | 4/1 -(UP Bloody AW racing, one day!) is it just me or is this price a shade too big in here? I was drawn in by the fact his speed figure is the best but given this race has a few in open to further improvement (mainly the Haggas horse but he is short enough) that may not count for much. But, three starts ago at Wolvs he won rather comfortably and is now 8lb higher here. He then ran twice on turf. The first when there was cut, and that may be an excuse albeit he travelled well for a long way. LTO was in a decent little C2 contest. Returned to an artificial surface may seem him in a better light. Trainer is 5/23,9 places those returning within 7 days of last start also. I thought he was worth a second glance anyway. Maybe the Haggas horse will prove to strong but if there were any chinks (too keen, distance, doesn’t take to surface etc) you would like to think this one is next best. 

 

That is the only one of interest today.

 

JUMPS NOTES

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

2.30 War – Wholestone -(WON, market suggested he meant business, outclassed them) (no ticks against my positive notes. NTD is only 3/31, 13 places in non handicaps here. He remains ‘in form’. Interesting what the market does as I think he would qualify for a mark after this, provided the ‘capper feels he has enough to go on)

 

Trainer Track Profile: Jumps 2016/17: Daily Jumps Notes 

Warwick

3.05 –

Foundation Man (12/1)  WON 12/1>7/1 SP

(all handicaps, micro angles – class + going) (Jonjo 2/15, 2 places last 14 days, before Wednesday’s action)

The Snappy Poet (14/1) (UP– poor bugger, he doesn’t look like a chaser- for his own safety I hope they never try that again,hurdles/flat for him surely. He must school ok at home but that wasn’t fun to watch)

(all handicaps)

3.40 – Nice Thoughts (9/2) 

(micro angle- handicap hurdle debut, Pipe 2/4,4 places such types since 2013- . Pipe is ‘in form’ 4/12, 4 places last 14 days. Trainer jockey combo 2/5, 2 places here in hncp hurdles)

4.10 – Benzel (9/4) 

(all handicaps, micro angle- going, ‘good’)

4.45 – Kid Kalanisi (22/1)

(all handicaps, micro angle- 90+ days off at track. Trainer only had one runner last 30 days, hard to know if string are in form or not)

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Aug/Sept Trainer

5.40 Chelm – Surfina (16/1<)

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.50 Bright: East India / Secular Society (both any odds)

3.25 Bright: Cranwell (any odds) / Rennie Mackintosh (7/1<)

4.00 Bright: Megalala (7/1<)

5.05 Bright: Welsh Inlet (7/1<)

 

***

Post complete.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

14 Comments

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  • Hi all

    A quick recap from last two evenings, firstly using data on the track / surface, over a given distance and breaking it down by the best performing sires produced only average results at Wolverhampton with 1 winner and a couple of close 2nds….taking this a little further at Kempton this evening and applying the race class for that particular race before breaking down the stallions produced these figures:

    8 races, 19 selections, 6 winners, 2 2nds, 2 3rds, 3 4ths, 2 5ths, 2 6ths, 1 7th & 1 12th

    With the above results it seems this is worth investigating further and the best way to test this is with ongoing selections, I feel that it may be worth sticking to the AW for now and see how it fares over the next few weeks….There is 2 x AW meetings tomorrow at Newcastle & Chelmsford City and I will post up the Newcastle selections below and come back tomorrow afternoon with Chelmsford ….

    With Newcastle being new on the tapeta this year there is limited data and not all races will have selections but there is 3 races we can look at:

    4.55 Newcastle – Beadlam 6.2 (Frozen Power 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    4.55 Newcastle – Barwah 9.8 (Discreet Cat 1 run, 0 wins 1 place)

    5.25 Newcastle – Intense Starlet 3.9 (Intense Focus 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

    5.55 Newcastle – Indastar 3.5 (Indesatchel 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    All odds are Betfair Exchange current prices

    Good luck if your involved

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 12 months ago Reply


  • War. 4:45 – Quebec 4/1.
    Was unlucky last time when making a decisive run off the final turn to go clear only to be caught on the line by an in form horse, with 15L back to the third. There could be some improvers lurking, but with the advantage of the recent run I’m hoping he will get the job done. Has a very able claimer who has a good record when riding for Charlie Mann, and is due to go up 6lb in the future.

    broadsword 12 months ago Reply


  • Cheers for those, Steve. Have had a speculative punt on Drago (Cape Cross) in the 420 at Newcastle. Apparently flattered by his proximity to the winner only previous time on tapeta, his only place to date and worth a small investment at 36.0 at Betfair (drifting with the layers, so may be higher offers matched). Geegeez speed rating of 11 does temper enthusiasm somewhat.
    Others;
    350 Clear Evidence (Cape Cross)
    420 (again) Qaffaal (Street Cry)

    Paul

    blueboy199 12 months ago Reply


    • I believe that’s 4/9 on Newcastle tapeta for Street Cry…Qaffaal bloody opened at 16s yesterday. Typical I had other plans and didn’t check until this morning (Andrew Mount had to tip it for me, at least at 10s). Looks like he’s the one to follow here.
      Paul

      blueboy199 12 months ago Reply


      • Well done with Qaffaal Paul was indeed well backed forecast to go off at 15.0 and first time a “street cry” has tried / won over that trip at Newcastle clearly loves the suface

        Steve Wiseman 12 months ago Reply


  • Hi josh ,just joined your membership ,but when i try to reseave trainers record,just puts up reg fees.so i take it i am not a member yet ,

    Tony cooke 12 months ago Reply


    • hi Tony, I do enjoy a technical problem or two! sorry about that…

      I have had a look in my system, and in my paypal account, and it doesn’t indicate you have joined the paid membership. You can register for free i think, including adding username etc but unless you join one of payment option, £10 per month or £97 per year, you won’t be able to access any members only content.

      Hopefully you don’t believe you have paid – as I can see no record of that. You should have gone through Paypal at some point to pay.

      You will have to click on ‘renew subscription’ or ‘become a member’ to the top right in order to go through that.

      I hope that all makes sense. I will keep an eye out for any more problems etc. I am about to press the ‘sell’ button but you have me worried that all may not be working as it should!

      Josh

      Josh 12 months ago Reply


      • I will email you Tony.

        Josh 12 months ago Reply


      • Tony- I think that should all be fixed now. It was a technical issue my end. Hopefully when logged in this time you can open the post and the report.
        All the best
        Josh

        Josh 12 months ago Reply


  • Hi, we hope that our good run with the Gary Moore stable can continue. Purple Party, 3.25 Brighton, steps up in trip and is expected to go well.

    From an each way perspective Whinging Willie, 4.30 BR, may also go well?

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 12 months ago Reply


    • well done Martin

      ian straker 12 months ago Reply


  • Great Start for the Trainer Track Profiles / Jumps.

    Thank You.

    mojojojo 12 months ago Reply


    • No problem! Glad you had a piece. They will find winners, and we shall see how they do over time, collectively. Be interesting how the horses who tick a few stats boxes go- that one had three positives, based on trainer record. Horse had some back class as well. Was a joy to watch – you could tell by the way he jumped early he was on a going day.

      Josh 12 months ago Reply


  • Hi All

    A qualifier for Josephine Gordon this evening for R.Brisland (7 rides 3 wins, 6 places) 42.86% win SR
    85.71 Place SR

    7.10 Chelmsford – Masonic 12.5

    Stallion Qualifiers for Chelmsford City:

    5.40 Chelmsford – Heavenly Cry 11.5 (Dick Turpin 3 runs, 1 win 1place)

    6.10 Chelmsford – Best Away 12.5 (Intikhab 2 runs, 1 win 2 places)
    6.10 Chelmsford – Varuns Bride 11.5 (Lawman 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)
    610 Chelmsford – Acertwo 3.75 (Approve 6 runs, 1 win, 3 places)sford –

    6.40 Chelmsford – Nostalgie 50.0 (Archipenko 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    6.40 Chelmsford – Star of Bristol 5.6 (Speightstown 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    6.40 Chelmsford – Pyjamarama 17.0 (Exceed & Excel 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    6.40 Chelmsford – Jazaalah 22.0 (Hard Spun 1 run, 0 wins 1 place)

    7.10 Chelmsford – Fancy Day 14.0 (Shamardal 3 runs, 2 wins, 2 places)
    7.10 Chelmsford – Keepup Kevin 8.0 (Haafhd 2 runs 1 win, 1 place)
    7.10 Chelmsford – Party Nights 4.7 (Lawman 4 runs, 0 wins, 3 places)

    7.40 Chelmsford – Feed the Goater 6.8 (Fastnet Rock 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    7.40 Chelmsford – Show Me Again 100.00 (Showcasing 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    7.40 Chelmsford – Mezzotint 7.4 (Diamond Green 4 runs, 1 win, 4 places)
    7.40 Chelmsford – Kestreldotcom 15.5 (Oasis Dream 7 runs, 2 wins, 3 places)

    8.10 Chelmsford – Poetic Guest 100.00 (Poetic Voice 1 run 0 wins 1 place)
    8.10 Chelmsford – Majestic Girl 28.0 (Royal Applause 15 runs, 2 wins 5 places)

    8.40 Chelmsford – Mercy Me 23.0 (Mawatheeq 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    8.40 Chelmsford – Tenerezza 6.0 (Shamardal 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    8.40 Chelmsford – Princess Raihana 10.0 (Cape Cross 8 runs, 2 wins, 3 places)
    8.40 Chelmsford – Pivotal Flame 10.0 (Pivotal 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)
    8.40 Chelmsford – East Coast Lady 50.0 (Kodiac 2 runs, 0 wins 2 places)

    9.10 Chelmsford – Betty Boo 24.0 (Thousand Words 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    9.10 Chelmsford – Guapo Bay 30.0 (Showcasing 8 runs, 2 wins, 3 places)
    9.10 Chelmsford – Cytingan 18.5 (Equiano 17 runs, 4 wins, 5 places)

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 12 months ago Reply


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