The Cambridgeshire Handicap
I don’t know if I can tip in this given my form/confidence/race type/no real appetite to look through all the runners properly etc… but I will give you my stats profile shortlist and notes. On that basis there are three I like and will probably have a passing interest in…
In order of my own preference…
- Banksea , EW
- American Artist , EW
- Treasury Notes, EW
How did i get to those three…
My ‘winning profile’…
- 3-8 runs this season
- OR 104 or lower
- 8+ career runs
- 4+ handicap runs
- 1+ handicap wins
- 3-10 places in handicaps, inc wins
- 2-6 career wins
Now, that cuts the field in half and leaves 14 horses. I won’t list them all here. In order to cut that down I have gone with those who were Top 5 LTO, drawn 21 or lower and did not run at York LTO.
That leaves 5:
Treasury Notes / Examiner / Dolphin Vista / Banksea / American Artist
This profiling approach has done ok at times this flat season. Well it found the 1-2 (from shortlist of 2 in Skybet Dash), found the 1-3 (28/1, 20/1) in the Great St Wilfred from shortlist of 6, and found the 2nd (6/1) and 4th (16/1) from a shortlist of 3 in the Ayr Gold Cup last week. It also found the winner of The Portland Handicap at Donny, 8/1. So, it can work, and it can be hit and miss.
Hopefully one of these 5 can do the business. There are two I will leave I think…Examiner was 3rd in this race last year but is 8lb higher and has had a longer break than last year,113 days off here. He is 0/5, 1 place after breaks 60+ days. That would be a concern but they are the only negatives, profile/form wise. Dolphin Vista- well all his best form is on good or with cut. There is a concern over Good to firm for me but then again he is 40s- just in case change maybe.
Treasury Notes- he looks decent enough at a price. His trainer doesn’t do that well here but at 25s you could probably overlook. The other two look more interesting to me…
Banksea – Well he keeps knocking on the door in big handicaps and it could well be that this 9f is perfect for him. The trainer is in cracking form- 6/25, 11 places in last 14 days and he is 0/7,3 places in distance handicaps here, including a second in this race in 2014. I am a big Spencer fan,(sorry if you’ve just spat your tea all over your computer, but I am) especially in these races. EW is always best with him if the price allows as he can get his timing wrong sometimes. But, he likes to settle a horse and get them finishing off their races. He gets it right more than he gets it wrong for me. This one ticks a lot of boxes and looks sure to run a big race to my eye, with luck in running.
American Artist – I wonder if he is good enough here but he is lightly raced really, goes well on quick and is another where a strongly run 9f here looks sure to suit. He stays 10f. Varian is also in cracking form, 10/41, 20 places last 14 days. He should race handily. The only out and out front runners are in 5 and 8 here i think but you can be sure, with this many runners, that it shouldn’t be a crawl. But, I don’t think you want to be too far back either. 25s looks worth a poke.
S0, they are my thoughts. I am not confident tipping on that profile basis alone. But then again, I would be lost attacking this race any other way! I may not have even mentioned/looked at the winner. He may well have fallen down on one of my profile pointers. I won’t be going mad in this race and will be intrigued to see how they all go.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Firstly, three for the shortlist…
- 2.45 Haydock- The Jean Genie – 14/1 – Cox is 3/7, 4 places with his 2 year olds first time out at the track and looks to be one of the tracks he targets with such types. The trainer is in form – 5/24, 10 places last 14 days. He is 1/10, 3 places with the jockey in non-handicaps. The trainer won this race in 2014 with a sibling of this one. As always with this type the market may guide, albeit sometimes it has no idea. From memory I think he has won with a 20/1 shot here first time out.
- 3.20 Haydock – Crowned Eagle- 13/2 – Likewise Gosden is 6/14, 7 places with his first time out 2 year olds here. The trainer’s horses are going ok in the last month. This one has a Derby entry which may or may not be significant. Those are decent micro angle stats I think and should pay over time.
- 5.25 Chester – Talent To Amuse – 7/2 – Varian does’t send out many within 7 days of their last run but they appear to be worth following when he does- 3/8, 5 places, +14 SP with such runners. He is in cracking form – 10/44, 20 places and has a decent record in staying handicaps and at the track. 10/44, 20 places at the track with all runners. This one has the highest speed figure in the race and also won his maiden on soft ground.
I have used my Trainer Track Profile to highlight the following horses. The trainer stats underpinning these potential bets have been decent since the start of 2013. I would always advise having a look at the horses/races if you wish to follow albeit during the season these stats will throw up winners that may not have made sense on paper.
This stats pack is nearly complete and will be available by the end of the week.
2.35 Red Tornado / Sir Toby / Hassle
3.10 – Seefood
4.55 – Frederic
3.10 – Seefood
2.35 – Hassle
2.35 – Thunder Shiek (doesn’t tick any of positive pointers in my notes)
3.10 – Ballykan (ticks rest patter positive)
3.45 – Muckle Roe (no ticks against notes, not the best record so far after a break 60+ days)
5.30 – Gulshanigans (no ticks. Only NTDs second NHF runner here in last 5 years, other unplaced. Not sure what you read into that- clearly not a track he targets with that type anyway)
3.10- Fox Appeal (doesn’t tick my stats, horse has ran ok after 60+ days break before)
Sat Trainer/Jockey Jumps Combo
2.35 MR – Mr Kit Cat (any odds)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER BETS
4.50 Chester: Ballesteros / Masamah (both 12/1<)
4.05 Ham – Farkle Minkus (any)
5.50 Ham- Crazy Tornado (any)
6.50 – Lady Wootton (any)
That is all for today. Good Luck.