TIPS
The Cambridgeshire Handicap
I don’t know if I can tip in this given my form/confidence/race type/no real appetite to look through all the runners properly etc… but I will give you my stats profile shortlist and notes. On that basis there are three I like and will probably have a passing interest in…
In order of my own preference…
- Banksea , EW
- American Artist , EW
- Treasury Notes, EW
How did i get to those three…
My ‘winning profile’…
- 3-8 runs this season
- OR 104 or lower
- 8+ career runs
- 4+ handicap runs
- 1+ handicap wins
- 3-10 places in handicaps, inc wins
- 2-6 career wins
Now, that cuts the field in half and leaves 14 horses. I won’t list them all here. In order to cut that down I have gone with those who were Top 5 LTO, drawn 21 or lower and did not run at York LTO.
That leaves 5:
Treasury Notes / Examiner / Dolphin Vista / Banksea / American Artist
This profiling approach has done ok at times this flat season. Well it found the 1-2 (from shortlist of 2 in Skybet Dash), found the 1-3 (28/1, 20/1) in the Great St Wilfred from shortlist of 6, and found the 2nd (6/1) and 4th (16/1) from a shortlist of 3 in the Ayr Gold Cup last week. It also found the winner of The Portland Handicap at Donny, 8/1. So, it can work, and it can be hit and miss.
Hopefully one of these 5 can do the business. There are two I will leave I think…Examiner was 3rd in this race last year but is 8lb higher and has had a longer break than last year,113 days off here. He is 0/5, 1 place after breaks 60+ days. That would be a concern but they are the only negatives, profile/form wise. Dolphin Vista- well all his best form is on good or with cut. There is a concern over Good to firm for me but then again he is 40s- just in case change maybe.
Treasury Notes- he looks decent enough at a price. His trainer doesn’t do that well here but at 25s you could probably overlook. The other two look more interesting to me…
Banksea – Well he keeps knocking on the door in big handicaps and it could well be that this 9f is perfect for him. The trainer is in cracking form- 6/25, 11 places in last 14 days and he is 0/7,3 places in distance handicaps here, including a second in this race in 2014. I am a big Spencer fan,(sorry if you’ve just spat your tea all over your computer, but I am) especially in these races. EW is always best with him if the price allows as he can get his timing wrong sometimes. But, he likes to settle a horse and get them finishing off their races. He gets it right more than he gets it wrong for me. This one ticks a lot of boxes and looks sure to run a big race to my eye, with luck in running.
American Artist – I wonder if he is good enough here but he is lightly raced really, goes well on quick and is another where a strongly run 9f here looks sure to suit. He stays 10f. Varian is also in cracking form, 10/41, 20 places last 14 days. He should race handily. The only out and out front runners are in 5 and 8 here i think but you can be sure, with this many runners, that it shouldn’t be a crawl. But, I don’t think you want to be too far back either. 25s looks worth a poke.
S0, they are my thoughts. I am not confident tipping on that profile basis alone. But then again, I would be lost attacking this race any other way! I may not have even mentioned/looked at the winner. He may well have fallen down on one of my profile pointers. I won’t be going mad in this race and will be intrigued to see how they all go.
***
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Firstly, three for the shortlist…
- 2.45 Haydock- The Jean Genie – 14/1 – Cox is 3/7, 4 places with his 2 year olds first time out at the track and looks to be one of the tracks he targets with such types. The trainer is in form – 5/24, 10 places last 14 days. He is 1/10, 3 places with the jockey in non-handicaps. The trainer won this race in 2014 with a sibling of this one. As always with this type the market may guide, albeit sometimes it has no idea. From memory I think he has won with a 20/1 shot here first time out.
- 3.20 Haydock – Crowned Eagle- 13/2 – Likewise Gosden is 6/14, 7 places with his first time out 2 year olds here. The trainer’s horses are going ok in the last month. This one has a Derby entry which may or may not be significant. Those are decent micro angle stats I think and should pay over time.
- 5.25 Chester – Talent To Amuse – 7/2 – Varian does’t send out many within 7 days of their last run but they appear to be worth following when he does- 3/8, 5 places, +14 SP with such runners. He is in cracking form – 10/44, 20 places and has a decent record in staying handicaps and at the track. 10/44, 20 places at the track with all runners. This one has the highest speed figure in the race and also won his maiden on soft ground.
Now onto…
Market Rasen
I have used my Trainer Track Profile to highlight the following horses. The trainer stats underpinning these potential bets have been decent since the start of 2013. I would always advise having a look at the horses/races if you wish to follow albeit during the season these stats will throw up winners that may not have made sense on paper.
This stats pack is nearly complete and will be available by the end of the week.
All Handicaps
2.35 Red Tornado / Sir Toby / Hassle
3.10 – Seefood
Handicap Hurdles
4.55 – Frederic
Handicap Chases
3.10 – Seefood
NHF
none.
Micro Angles
2.35 – Hassle
JUMPS NOTES
Sept/Oct Trainers
Market Rasen…
NTD
2.35 – Thunder Shiek (doesn’t tick any of positive pointers in my notes)
3.10 – Ballykan (ticks rest patter positive)
3.45 – Muckle Roe (no ticks against notes, not the best record so far after a break 60+ days)
5.30 – Gulshanigans (no ticks. Only NTDs second NHF runner here in last 5 years, other unplaced. Not sure what you read into that- clearly not a track he targets with that type anyway)
Emma Lavelle
3.10- Fox Appeal (doesn’t tick my stats, horse has ran ok after 60+ days break before)
***
MICRO SYSTEMS
Sat Trainer/Jockey Jumps Combo
2.35 MR – Mr Kit Cat (any odds)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER BETS
4.50 Chester: Ballesteros / Masamah (both 12/1<)
4.05 Ham – Farkle Minkus (any)
5.50 Ham- Crazy Tornado (any)
6.50 – Lady Wootton (any)
***
That is all for today. Good Luck.
7 Responses
Just Sky and Hills (Hills!) paying 6 places for the Cambridgeshire. The sponsors, Fred, one of most of the rest paying 5, some – especially the newer entrants – only 4 (including Ladbrokes).
Paul
nb that’s info via oddschecker, so double check with the relevant layer
My Saturday 33/1 shot is Crimson Rosette, 1.50 Newmarket. Has it to do but the trainer likes this horse.
I like Treasury Notes in the Cambridgeshire – I think he has some improvement in him.
My Old favourite Apricot Sky goes at this favourite track, Ripon 4.25. Has course form of 212 I believe. 8/1 about. Another suited by Ripon is Snap Shots, 3.25.
3.50 Ripon, Snap Shots. Correction.
What a cracking day of racing tomorrow! As already mentioned already my main bet for the Cambridgeshire is Treasury Notes (based on my trends I put up I had it down between the pick, Bravo Zolo, Dolphin Vista, Interconnection and Knight Owl). I have also had a saver on American Artist who fell down on failing to win this season (16/19 of winners had including 7 of the last 8 winners have) however considering his 2nd in the Silver Cambridgeshire last year, the fact that he fit the rest of the trends and his liking for fast ground means I had to have a saver. Both have been backed quite well so if you back them suggest you wait until the bookies rollback their prices tomorrow.
Moving on to my main bets I am confident Shady McCoy will return to winning ways in the 17:20 at Newmarket. Has ran 2 absolutely cracking races at Goodwood each time from an absolutely torrid draw at a track which is one of the hardest to do so over 7f. Is only 3lbs higher for his win. The 4th horse from his win has since won 2 on the bounce each time impressively. The Fran Berry booking looked eye-catching.
Moving to the race before Clef looks a very solid pick. Just beaten by a neck on the same mark over course and distance the winner has followed up in a Listed race with the 3rd that day winning a Grade 3. I would be surprised if she was out of the first three.
Moving on the Market Rasen, I cant understand why Cernunnos is such a big price in the 15:10. This looks like a pretty poor Listed race and certainly considerably worse than the Summer Plate he contested over course and distance 2 starts ago, where he was still in contention when falling at the last. (I would arguably have at least half a dozen that contested that over anything here). I would ignore his last run since he is much better going right handed (although he is 6lbs better off with Ballykan and 12lbs better off with Wandswick Court). Heskin had his first ride and winner for Tom George earlier this week and I would hope they can keep the 100% record.
Finally I am hoping that Blue Hussar can win the 17:00 at Ripon which he also won 12 months ago. Is effectively 5lbs lower with the jockey claim. He also went close in a class 2 over course and distance so he clearly likes the track with the same jockey on board. Trainer form the only slight concern although whilst he has only had the one winner in the past month he has still had 30% place in the past week.
Hi All
A bit of a rough ride last evening with the “Newcastle Stallions” with a few BOT’s (Back of Tv) until finally a winner in the last race freely available at 10.00 before going off at 5.5 SP to make a small profit on the day….A good lesson to be learned with that I need to prioritise which stallions perform best at given distances as just going off their record at the track is not enough considering how many finished out of sight!
Much better with the “Apprentice” angles with JG having a 3rd and a winner again for Hugo Palmer was on at 11.5 and a winner for A Mac backed at 10.5 before being hammered and going off at 4.33 SP so overall a good evening….
On to today there is a qualifier for the “Dalgleish / Makin” angle in the 4.10 Newmarket – Lat Hawill although you may have to scroll to the bottom of the page to see its odds currently available at 170.0 on Betfair lol….
One other angle I’ve been looking at is how certain sires have performed this year over 5F on soft ground and there are 28 profitable sires using this criteria with the following figures…..
132 races, 37 wins, 71 places, 28.03% win SR, 53.79% place SR
There is 3 qualifiers today as follows:
3.35 Hamilton – Reckless Serenade 6.2
6.50 Hamilton – Cheeni 25.0, & Rock Canyon 6.2
Cheers
Steve
Great stuff Steve – I was waiting for a comment so I could say well done- those apprentice angles are going well. Good prices as well. The market clearly hasn’t taken much notice of who those jockeys are riding winners for at the moment. Good luck today.
Hi Josh
Yes thanks, the “Apprentices” are doing very well really happy with these angles….Good luck to you too I will be following you on the 3 x Stats / Angles of interest makes perfect sense to me and defo the type of angle I like to use…..Here’s to a good day 🙂
Cheers
Steve