FREE DAILY POST: 23/09/16 (complete)

Post Complete. Three for the stats/angles shortlist and some Jumps notes.

MEMBERS CLUB UPDATE: just to say I have updated the Cambridgeshire post with some stats/trends/pointers for the big handicap. Nick has also kindly added some further stats profile pointers as well. We shall see what kind of shortlist that lot throws up. You can read that in the same place HERE>>>

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FREE SYSTEM: If you missed my emails you can grab this free system from Kieran Ward HERE>>> It looks at 10 trainers who do well with favourites on the AW and was 2/2 yesterday at Kempton. Worth a read if nothing else.

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TIPS 

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

  • 2.10 Hayd – Gnaad 11/1 – (UP 33/1…safe to say market told the story there this time) Some strong enough trainer stats here, the kind that should pay over time, if not with this one…Cowell seems to have changed approach this year with 2 year olds first time out – 5/20, 7 places in the last year. He is also 1/4, 3 places at Haydock with such types and maybe this one is of some EW interest on that basis. The market may well guide as to his chance. The jockey is 2/11,7 places on the trainers non handicappers. The trainer could be in better form which is a slight negative.
  • 3.55 Hayd – Battaash 11/1(3rd 14/1 – one for the tracker for next season maybe-  he is blistering from the gate and if they can ever teach him to settle a bit better,pre race/in race, he could be smart enough. Time for the hood maybe. Exciting run that.) Charlie Hills is 5/11, 6 places at the track with handicap debutants, another of those micro angles that should pay over time. This one has been highly tried and I will leave you to look at recent runs. This looks like an afterthought and he has been a bit disappointing the last twice. Last time he pulled hard but led to around 1f out over 6f LTO. He then hung and looks far from straightforward. Maybe the jockey has recommended dropping him back as he rode him LTO. On ratings he is the best in the race on what they have done to date. A tricky one but those stats are decent. This looks like a track he clearly targets with those on handicap debut.
  • 7.45 Tiga Tuan – 16/1 – A bit of a poke here but I couldn’t get away from the fact that Ryan is 5/15,7 places at the track in the last year and 4/9, 5 places with Stott up at the track. This one likes to get on with it and ran ok two starts ago. Maybe the softer ground was an excuse last time out. He is now 0/8, 1 place so who knows, he may just be no good. Drawn low I thought they may try and make plenty of use of him and he could get the lead here. After that, who knows but maybe an interesting one for an EW wager. A hot fav from the Haggas yard to contend with also. 

 

That will be all for Friday on the shortlist.

 

JUMPS NOTES

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

2.20 Worc- Kerisper (doesn’t tick any of positive boxes, makes chasing debut. Trainer 1/6,2 places in non hncp chases at track)

4.05 – Rock of Leon (doesn’t tick any boxes from my notes, missing out on ‘rest pattern’ by one day. 3/17,7 places when Sam is up on the non-handicap hurdlers)

4.40 – Ballycash (nothing again, one of these off a break of 90+ days will probably go in,as two did at Perth at short prices. Another non handicap hurdle, trainer/jockey stats above)

5.50 – Bendomingo (doesn’t tick rest pattern boxes but does tick the ‘extreme weight’ pointers. NTD only 4/31,10p in handicap hurdles here, -7 SP. Improves slightly to 4/23,7p when Sam is up top)

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None.

 

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EYE-CATCHERS/REVIEW NOTES

21/09/16

4.05 Perth (tipped race)

By The Boardwalk- well he was ultimately poor backed from 10s into 9/2. He travelled enthusiastically here and looked to be sneaking into it. He hit the odd fence up the home straight which he can do and I don’t know if that made any difference. Given how he went first up last season and then how the wheels came off, I can’t say you would want to be with him moving forward. They may find a weak race for him at some point. Still lightly enough raced over fences but you would maybe want to see more now before getting involved. Maybe he used up too much energy through the race.

Kilbree Kid won this, drifting from 7/2 to 5/1. He was the solid, been there and done it horse, whose fitness/recent form was proven. I suppose that was the case with Longsdon winner at Warwick as well a few days before. He was entitled to do that on old form. First ride and first winner for the new stable jockey as well I think.

Kilronan High- not sure what to make of this but probably the one you take from the race moving forward, given her profile. I think she stayed well enough albeit a stiff/well run 2m4f may be perfect. She still made the odd scrappy error here and the jumping needs to sharpen up moving forward. Given how she ran you would think she was fit enough. It may turn out this was a decent little contest as the winner is a solid C3 horse, and has won at C2 level and he looked to be back in tip top shape here. There are handicap chases to be won with her.

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That is all for Friday. Good luck with your bets.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    I have been following Perfect Madge most of this year, she has been crying out for a step up to rhis distance, while she could run a good race and finish 6th,I think 100/1 is way to big! 3 05Nm

    Dan

    1. Hi Dan, well rarely do 100/1 pokes get put up on these pages. I may have to have a small EW nibble just in case! Will have a look at race. Can take plenty of chances at those odds and if you have been following most of year waiting for step up, you have to have something on! GL.

    2. Interesting French raider in that race, seems to have improved for better going and needs this extra furlong, as per breeding – with Frankie booked @16/1. Stable had a second in a G3 in 2012 at Goodwood so know their stuff.

  2. Will be sticking with Tom Dascombe at haydock 1.40 Top of The Rocks,has been a good money spinner this season,Liam Jones takes ride probably because of weigh,has had winner for trainer this week,12/1 generally worth a stab

  3. Newcastle sires…2 qualifiers for me;

    545 Breton Blues (Street Cry) 12/1 too short for me at that price
    715 Doctor Cross (Cape Cross) 13/2 much more interesting first time on the aw

    Paul

  4. I am taking a look at Friday racing and was drawn to Miss Carbonia, 1.55 HP. OK he is up in class but has done his winning at this distance and the 33/1 on Bet 365 was worth taking for an each way stab.

    1. Sorry, I gave a non runner today.

      I hear Dovil’s Date is ready to in the 5.15 at Worcester. 4/1 still about. I got 5/1 and so am in each way.

  5. No time for writes up tonight but Gifted Master looks a cracking price in the 15:40 at Newmarket (even better when bookies rollback their prices tomorrow at 8:30am). Also have to have a small e/w bet on Fort Bastion tomorrow in the 17:05 at Haydock. Drops down a level and has his ideal rest pattern given his last 2 wins have come on 7 days rest. Stablemate Rousayan and Gratzie look the main dangers. My main bet for the Cambridgeshire is Treasury Notes.

  6. Have had my attention drawn to one in the Silver Cambridgeshire from an in form source, they point out the Rowley Mile Course form of Squire in the 5.55 and the fact that Rab Havlin, who surely knows every yard of the Heath (their words) has been booked. Having had a look, it seems to have a nice mark and a tongue tie for the first time so had a small poke at 16/1 – odds to 4th

        1. Thx for the Sky info – managed to get a few more quid on at 14’s b4 Hugh Taylor tipped it up too – so at least I was on an hour before the flood of HT fans killed the price.

  7. Any ‘members’ have that Johnny G winner, Laugh Aloud, 12s>9s… hoping someone may have noted his record in Listed races at Cambridgeshire meeting last three years, was 5/9, 7 places before the 1.55 today…

    1. Afraid not mate. Was looking at his 2 (finished 1st/2nd) in the 2:30 but figured Journey was too short for me even if she was the likely winner. Hope you had some on yourself.

      1. Ah shame, I thought it was one of the stand out stats, even put it in caps haha. Only 1/2 on EW, didn’t have time to look at race and just followed stats – which on that occasion worked. Not always the case of course!

  8. Hi Josh / All

    Using the updated “Newcastle Stallions” data we have the following qualifiers for this evening with a price cap of 20/1 SP

    5.45 Breton Blues 11.0, Jan De Heem 8.4,
    6.15 Table Manners 15.0
    7.15 Doctor Cross 6.8
    7.45 Barwah 5.5, La Celebs Ville 24.0, Tiga Tuan 30.0
    8.45 Young Tiger 4.9
    9.15 Intense Starlet 10.0

    2 x qualifiers for Josephine Gordon

    5.45 Newcastle – Hope is High 2.6 for John Berry 10 runs 5 wins 50% win SR 8 places 80% place SR
    7.15 Newcastle – Tamayef 9.0 for Hugo Palmer 11 runs 6 wins 54.55% SR 7 places 63.64 % place SR

    1 x qualifier for Adam Mcnamara

    8.45 Newcastle – Nuala Taqula 9.8 for JJ Quinn 14 runs 4 wins 28.57 win SR 7 places 50% place SR

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Cheers Steve. Good Luck. Good to see the Ryan horse on the list, albeit if the market/price is a guide I am not too expectant with my little EW wager.

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