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By The Boardwalk – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (WH) 8/1 (general) UP 9/2 *
*No excuse there. Was well enough backed and travelled well for the most part, if a little too well for most of race. Unsure if used too much energy or not. Not much there when asked. Disappointing in the end given how he looked to be creeping into it. Twister horse ran well in second. KK was the solid, in form, fit horse drifted out from 7/2>5/1 and won well enough. Maybe a sign to take it easier until the season gets going properly. That summer/recent form vs winter returners is a tricky one.
Not much of an effort from Twirling Magnet who ran a strange sort of race. At one point down the back he looked like he may play a part and then there was nothing. I will keep an eye on him and hopefully I may get my money back one day. Master Dee made one too many scrappy errors that cost him I think, emptying out late. Anyway, onto this race..
This price just looked big to me given that he hacked up in this race last year off a similar mark and after a similar break. The trainer has only sent 7 horses up here in the last 5 years and 4 have won, including this one. Conditions look ideal for him and he is the trainer’s only runner at the track. I can only think this has been the target. The trainer also had a winner at Warwick on Tuesday.
Now, clearly the wheels need to have been screwed back on here as they somewhat fell off after this race. He clearly isn’t the easiest but I struggled to leave him at these odds. He can be a scrappy jumper and that may be the reason for his more recent poor form. At Kempton he was going well enough when clouting one. That fall may have had some impact on his next start. I can’t think 20f on soft around Ludlow was ideal and good to firm may have been too lively for him at Wincanton. That could be a case of looking for excuses. In any case he has had a break and if he repeats the run in this race last year he clearly is no 10/1 shot. The market may guide as to confidence. He hasn’t been shorter than 12/1 on his last four starts and has run as such. His mark is back down now also.
Of the rest?
Kilronan High…having pondered, and read Nick’s decent views, I will be a bit more enthusiastic as to this ones chance and go as far to say as she probably looks the main danger here. I have had a 1/4 point saver on at 7s which is arguably too big. Of the more lightly raced ones she has the most interesting profile and potentially the most improvement to come. She is stepping up in trip which is an unknown but the way she has ran suggests it could be what is needed and this isn’t the stiffest 3 miles. This is the easiest chase she has contested in her last four and the form has worked out well in a few of them. The price, in the context of the race (i couldn’t back the top three really), may allow a chance to be taken on those questions. She can make the odd error but…those were in races at a shorter distance where they will have been going quicker than they will here I imagine. She should have time to get into a rhythm. Market support may be significant given the break but there isn’t much I can say to put you off that one. The selection was no 10/1, 8/1 shot for me, and maybe this one isn’t an 8/1 – 15/2 shot either.
Kilbree Kid could follow up but 7/2 is short enough given his profile. The new stable jockey rides him for the first time and maybe he will follow up. He is back up in class and up the handicap. He likes it here and if back to his best won’t be far away. Western Home is unexposed but does step up in class here. He is entitled to improve at some ponit but is now 13lb higher than his last chase win. Tangolan has a few questions especially in the jumping department and for those reasons 4s seems only ok. That run 3 starts ago in similar conditions was poor and he needs to step up a bit for me.
Heist is 12lb higher than his last win over the water and I don’t know how strong that form may turn out to be. He only scrambled home that day and again ran in that Tangolan chase three starts ago when not doing too much. There is a bit of cut in this ground here. He is in form at least and unexposed over this distance.
This feels a bit like the Warwick race where you could give a chance to a few and where there are a few without many miles on the clock over fences. 10s has just tempted me in with this one. Clearly he needs to bounce back to form but I am happy to take the chance. There is a bit of pace to take him into this also. The market will be informative I think as will how he travels over the first few fences.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
A few starting points of interest today…
- 2.10 Redcar – Luv U Always UP 10/1- maybe these big field, low grade, 2yo handicaps are to be left well alone but the trainer is 2/6, 3 places with his handicap debutants in the last year. He doesn’t run many but half of them to date have given backers a run for their money. The trainer is also ‘in form’, 3/13, 6 places in the last 14 days and is 3/15, 6 places at the track in the last year. He is 3/19, 7 places with this jockey in flat handicaps also. So, there are a few things of some interest there, as a way in. Is should be noted that Where’s Stewart 40/1 – UP represents Tinkler who is 2/8, 4 places with his handicap debutants at the track in recent years. This one has shown nothing on the race track and isn’t moving up in trip or anything. But, he does get the first time visor. Probably nowhere near good enough but he is on my stats shortlist and he is 40/1 so I really had to mention him. Stranger things have happened.
- 3.55 Redcar – Sea View – 8/1 – (NR) A similar sort of race again, this time over 8f. Two positives for this horse, stats wise… The trainer is 3/10, 5 places with stable newcomers in the last 2 years, seemingly able to improve them/spark them into life. He is also ‘in form’ 2/9, 3 places in the last 14 days. One of only two such ‘in form’ trainers in the race (C Dwyer being the other) The trainer isn’t prolific at this track and nor with handicap debutants, but he does win with them every now and then. This one has the second best speed figure in the race and based on that last run, this step up looks sure to suit. Crystal Dome 10/1 (WON) – goes for Dunlop who has sent this horse up here, the only runner for him at the track on the day. He is 2/4, 2 places with handicap debutants at the track. He is 3/15, 6 places all runners at the track, 5/33, 11 places in handicaps with this jockey up. This one’s form on paper doesn’t look as good as the selection but he has been 50/1+. Market support may be interesting and he steps up another furlong. Not much more to go on than that really.
- 5.20 Naas – Admiralty 10/1 – (UP) another where the market may be of some use. Murtagh is 2/3, 2 places with handicap debutants here. Small numbers but in the context that he is 4/43 with all such runners that may be of more interest. He is ‘in form’ 4/19, 5 places in the last 30 days and is 4/19, 7 places in handicaps at the track. The horse also steps up in distance by one furlong. So, some things of interest there in another poor looking race. This one could well improve on handicap debut.
- 6.05 Redcar- Ponty Royale– 10/1 (4th 7/1)- this one may be worthy of closer inspection in a poor race. I have just been flicking through with the ‘geegeez’ instant expert tab and this one caught the eye at the track… he looks to suit all race conditions where not many others do. He is 1/2, 2 places in C6 and drops to this class for the first time since his nursery days around 1 year ago. He is also 1/2, 2 places at the track. He gets cheekpieces first time here and this should be easier than his recent assignments. He could be worth a closer inspection…
A bit there to get stuck into. Hopefully a winner or two buried in there somewhere and with any luck you find them 🙂
All the runners from all the trainers for now, before further digging against my notes…
2.55- North And South UP (doesn’t tick my positive stats but NTD has winners outside of those during Twister season. Not run in last 90 days but trainer’s horses that have had 60+ days off here do well in handicaps. Possible pick of STD and the horse himself goes well fresh) / Sword of The Lord WON 13/2 (ticks run in 90 days, rest pattern, and ‘weight’ positives. STD rides the other one and I don’t know if that is significant/had the choice. You would assume he did)
4.05 – Kiloran High 2nd (much like North and South really. This one does look interesting here and could be main danger to my 10/1>4/1 poke)
4.40 – Frontier Vic UP/ Goodbye Dancer 2nd(neither tick any rest pattern positives of mine, as I have said before plenty win after a break, including at this track- 3/6, 4 places with handicap hurdlers here returning 60+ days. Frontier Vic ticks the weight box. STD may have had the choice again albeit they may have wanted weight off his back)
5.45 – Donapollo 3rd 25/1>12/1 (some caution given stats for trainer last year during this period. Hasn’t had a runner for a while so no idea if string is ‘in form’ or not. Doesn’t tick any of the positives boxes really. Dobbin is 3/9 4 places with those in the 18/1-40/1 category so the market may not be a guide for this 20/1 poke. Plenty of letters than numbers in his formline)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
6.05 Red – Coquine (12/1<) DNQ
I really need to up my game on the eye-catchers/tracking front and with any luck these notes will highlight the odd winner over time. I will get in the habit of writing them the day after anything enters my notepad and I will try and keep them fairly brief…
2.50 War- Bally Lagan – I read something about the Dickin yard which suggested he had a virus/major problems last season and really struggled for consistency. So, firstly, a lot of his runners this season may be worth a second glance and some poor form last year for his runners could be forgiven. Worth noting. Before his two runners at Warwick his last four runners had won. This is a poor horse who was running in a poor race but he jumped really well here to my eye and was leading/looking like the winner as they approached the last two fences. He somewhat flopped over that and then started treading water. This was his first run in 110 days and there wasn’t really any money for him. Now he could just be a weak finisher and he doesn’t win very often. If this fitness theory is correct then he could be of some interest on his next run. I thought it was a decent enough effort. He seems versatile ground wise, winning form on soft. Around 20f looks his trip.
4.30 Warwick – not too much to say on the tip in this, Twirling Magnet flattering to deceive. He jumped well and I thought was going to creep into it down the back. He jumped one and went backwards. It will be interesting if they persist with him in regulation chases. He has some ability and will pop up somewhere no doubt. Garrahalish– was the eye -catcher. He was able to lead this which surprised me but I suppose he does have 2m4f speed. He bounced along here, jumping well, and led them for a long way into is. He faded turning home from memory (need to watch again) which could have been a mix of the days rest and the trip. He is well handicapped and his best form has been around 2m4f. If he is dropped in trip and has the benefit of being able to lead, he could reward backers. Leading not essential though. I will be keeping an eye on him.
6.05 Hex – Ueueteotl – tipped here at 10s he somewhat out-ran those odds and was a shade unlucky having watched it again. He jumped well for the most part, bar one fence, where he made a scrappy error and lost some momentum. I missed it at the time but he somewhat regathered himself after that, or was in the process of doing so. He then had to snap up to avoid being carried out and that lost him a few lengths. He rallied up the run in and didn’t lose by much. It wasn’t a strong race and he does have the odd error in the locker. Still, I expect they will find him a decent race and if he can find one with no other front runners in even better. Hopefully he will be a decent price on his next few starts as I would hope they can find him a weak chase to take. Pena Dorada is just worth noting as an out and out front runner, which is always useful to know. In the right grade, at the right track (some summer form around the likes of Cartmel) this one will win again, making all. That may be next summer or maybe they will find a weak race for him as he is running well enough.