FREE DAILY POST: 21/09/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete. Chasing tip, stats/angles shortlist, jumps notes…

 

Guest Post: Reminder that you can read Paul Ferguson’s three jumpers to follow HERE>>> 

 

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TIPS

4.05 Perth

By The Boardwalk – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365) 9/1 (WH) 8/1 (general) UP 9/2 *

*No excuse there. Was well enough backed and travelled well for the most part, if a little too well for most of race. Unsure if used too much energy or not. Not much there when asked. Disappointing in the end given how he looked to be creeping into it. Twister horse ran well in second. KK was the solid, in form, fit horse drifted out from 7/2>5/1 and won well enough. Maybe a sign to take it easier until the season gets going properly. That summer/recent form vs winter returners is a tricky one. 

Not much of an effort from Twirling Magnet who ran a strange sort of race. At one point down the back he looked like he may play a part and then there was nothing. I will keep an eye on him and hopefully I may get my money back one day. Master Dee made one too many scrappy errors that cost him I think, emptying out late. Anyway, onto this race..

Why him?

This price just looked big to me given that he hacked up in this race last year off a similar mark and after a similar break. The trainer has only sent 7 horses up here in the last 5 years and 4 have won, including this one. Conditions look ideal for him and he is the trainer’s only runner at the track. I can only think this has been the target. The trainer also had a winner at Warwick on Tuesday.

Now, clearly the wheels need to have been screwed back on here as they somewhat fell off after this race. He clearly isn’t the easiest but I struggled to leave him at these odds. He can be a scrappy jumper and that may be the reason for his more recent poor form. At Kempton he was going well enough when clouting one. That fall may have had some impact on his next start. I can’t think 20f on soft around Ludlow was ideal and good to firm may have been too lively for him at Wincanton. That could be a case of looking for excuses. In any case he has had a break and if he repeats the run in this race last year he clearly is no 10/1 shot. The market may guide as to confidence. He hasn’t been shorter than 12/1 on his last four starts and has run as such. His mark is back down now also.

Of the rest?

Kilronan High…having pondered, and read Nick’s decent views, I will be a bit more enthusiastic as to this ones chance and go as far to say as she probably looks the main danger here. I have had a 1/4 point saver on at 7s which is arguably too big. Of the more lightly raced ones she has the most interesting profile and potentially the most improvement to come. She is stepping up in trip which is an unknown but the way she has ran suggests it could be what is needed and this isn’t the stiffest 3 miles. This is the easiest chase she has contested in her last four and the form has worked out well in a few of them. The price, in the context of the race (i couldn’t back the top three really), may allow a chance to be taken on those questions. She can make the odd error but…those were in races at a shorter distance where they will have been going quicker than they will here I imagine. She should have time to get into a rhythm. Market support may be significant given the break but there isn’t much I can say to put you off that one. The selection was no 10/1, 8/1 shot for me, and maybe this one isn’t an 8/1 – 15/2 shot either.

Kilbree Kid could follow up but 7/2 is short enough given his profile. The new stable jockey rides him for the first time and maybe he will follow up. He is back up in class and up the handicap. He likes it here and if back to his best won’t be far away. Western Home is unexposed but does step up in class here. He is entitled to improve at some ponit but is now 13lb higher than his last chase win. Tangolan has a few questions especially in the jumping department and for those reasons 4s seems only ok. That run 3 starts ago in similar conditions was poor and he needs to step up a bit for me.

Heist is 12lb higher than his last win over the water and I don’t know how strong that form may turn out to be. He only scrambled home that day and again ran in that Tangolan chase three starts ago when not doing too much. There is a bit of cut in this ground here. He is in form at least and unexposed over this distance.

This feels a bit like the Warwick race where you could give a chance to a few and where there are a few without many miles on the clock over fences. 10s has just tempted me in with this one. Clearly he needs to bounce back to form but I am happy to take the chance. There is a bit of pace to take him into this also. The market will be informative I think as will how he travels over the first few fences.

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

A few starting points of interest today…

  • 2.10 Redcar Luv U Always UP 10/1- maybe these big field, low grade, 2yo handicaps are to be left well alone but the trainer is 2/6, 3 places with his handicap debutants in the last year. He doesn’t run many but half of them to date have given backers a run for their money. The trainer is also ‘in form’, 3/13, 6 places in the last 14 days and is 3/15, 6 places at the track in the last year. He is 3/19, 7 places with this jockey in flat handicaps also. So, there are a few things of some interest there, as a way in. Is should be noted that Where’s Stewart 40/1 – UP represents Tinkler who is 2/8, 4 places with his handicap debutants at the track in recent years. This one has shown nothing on the race track and isn’t moving up in trip or anything. But, he does get the first time visor. Probably nowhere near good enough but he is on my stats shortlist and he is 40/1 so I really had to mention him. Stranger things have happened. 
  • 3.55 RedcarSea View – 8/1 – (NR) A similar sort of race again, this time over 8f. Two positives for this horse, stats wise… The trainer is 3/10, 5 places with stable newcomers in the last 2 years, seemingly able to improve them/spark them into life. He is also ‘in form’ 2/9, 3 places in the last 14 days. One of only two such ‘in form’ trainers in the race (C Dwyer being the other) The trainer isn’t prolific at this track and nor with handicap debutants, but he does win with them every now and then. This one has the second best speed figure in the race and based on that last run, this step up looks sure to suit. Crystal Dome 10/1 (WON) – goes for Dunlop who has sent this horse up here, the only runner for him at the track on the day. He is 2/4, 2 places with handicap debutants at the track. He is 3/15, 6 places all runners at the track, 5/33, 11 places in handicaps with this jockey up. This one’s form on paper doesn’t look as good as the selection but he has been 50/1+. Market support may be interesting and he steps up another furlong. Not much more to go on than that really. 
  • 5.20 Naas – Admiralty 10/1 – (UP) another where the market may be of some use. Murtagh is 2/3, 2 places with handicap debutants here. Small numbers but in the context that he is 4/43 with all such runners that may be of more interest. He is ‘in form’ 4/19, 5 places in the last 30 days and is 4/19, 7 places in handicaps at the track. The horse also steps up in distance by one furlong. So, some things of interest there in another poor looking race. This one could well improve on handicap debut. 
  • 6.05 Redcar- Ponty Royale– 10/1 (4th 7/1)- this one may be worthy of closer inspection in a poor race. I have just been flicking through with the ‘geegeez’ instant expert tab and this one caught the eye at the track… he looks to suit all race conditions where not many others do. He is 1/2, 2 places in C6 and drops to this class for the first time since his nursery days around 1 year ago. He is also 1/2, 2 places at the track. He gets cheekpieces first time here and this should be easier than his recent assignments. He could be worth a closer inspection…

 

A bit there to get stuck into. Hopefully a winner or two buried in there somewhere and with any luck you find them 🙂

 

JUMPS NOTES 

Sept/Oct Trainers

All the runners from all the trainers for now, before further digging against my notes…

NTD

2.55- North And South UP (doesn’t tick my positive stats but NTD has winners outside of those during Twister season. Not run in last 90 days but trainer’s horses that have had 60+ days off here do well in handicaps. Possible pick of STD and the horse himself goes well fresh) / Sword of The Lord WON 13/2 (ticks run in 90 days, rest pattern, and ‘weight’ positives. STD rides the other one and I don’t know if that is significant/had the choice. You would assume he did)

4.05 – Kiloran High 2nd  (much like North and South really. This one does look interesting here and could be main danger to my 10/1>4/1 poke)

4.40 – Frontier Vic UP/ Goodbye Dancer 2nd(neither tick any rest pattern positives of mine, as I have said before plenty win after a break, including at this track- 3/6, 4 places with handicap hurdlers here returning 60+ days. Frontier Vic ticks the weight box. STD may have had the choice again albeit they may have wanted weight off his back)

Dobbin

5.45 – Donapollo 3rd 25/1>12/1 (some caution given stats for trainer last year during this period. Hasn’t had a runner for a while so no idea if string is ‘in form’ or not. Doesn’t tick any of the positives boxes really. Dobbin is 3/9 4 places with those in the 18/1-40/1 category so the market may not be a guide for this 20/1 poke. Plenty of letters than numbers in his formline)

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

none.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

6.05 Red – Coquine (12/1<) DNQ

 

 

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EYE-CATCHERS/REVIEW NOTES

I really need to up my game on the eye-catchers/tracking front and with any luck these notes will highlight the odd winner over time. I will get in the habit of writing them the day after anything enters my notepad and I will try and keep them fairly brief…

20/09/16

2.50 War- Bally Lagan – I read something about the Dickin yard which suggested he had a virus/major problems last season and really struggled for consistency. So, firstly, a lot of his runners this season may be worth a second glance and some poor form last year for his runners could be forgiven. Worth noting. Before his two runners at Warwick his last four runners had won. This is a poor horse who was running in a poor race but he jumped really well here to my eye and was leading/looking like the winner as they approached the last two fences. He somewhat flopped over that and then started treading water. This was his first run in 110 days and there wasn’t really any money for him. Now he could just be a weak finisher and he doesn’t win very often. If this fitness theory is correct then he could be of some interest on his next run. I thought it was a decent enough effort. He seems versatile ground wise, winning form on soft. Around 20f looks his trip.

4.30 Warwick – not too much to say on the tip in this, Twirling Magnet flattering to deceive. He jumped well and I thought was going to creep into it down the back. He jumped one and went backwards. It will be interesting if they persist with him in regulation chases. He has some ability and will pop up somewhere no doubt. Garrahalish– was the eye -catcher. He was able to lead this which surprised me but I suppose he does have 2m4f speed. He bounced along here, jumping well, and led them for a long way into is. He faded turning home from memory (need to watch again) which could have been a mix of the days rest and the trip. He is well handicapped and his best form has been around 2m4f. If he is dropped in trip and has the benefit of being able to lead, he could reward backers. Leading not essential though. I will be keeping an eye on him.

16/09/16

6.05 Hex – Ueueteotl – tipped here at 10s he somewhat out-ran those odds and was a shade unlucky having watched it again. He jumped well for the most part, bar one fence, where he made a scrappy error and lost some momentum. I missed it at the time but he somewhat regathered himself after that, or was in the process of doing so. He then had to snap up to avoid being carried out and that lost him a few lengths. He rallied up the run in and didn’t lose by much. It wasn’t a strong race and he does have the odd error in the locker. Still, I expect they will find him a decent race and if he can find one with no other front runners in even better. Hopefully he will be a decent price on his next few starts as I would hope they can find him a weak chase to take. Pena Dorada is just worth noting as an out and out front runner, which is always useful to know. In the right grade, at the right track (some summer form around the likes of Cartmel) this one will win again, making all. That may be next summer or maybe they will find a weak race for him as he is running well enough.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Currently in the doldrums of poor form this September after a fairly decent and profitable flat season. Will be reviewing my September strategy next year especially after the St Leger festival as the flat season draws to an end.

    Josh, I agree By the Boardwalk looks a point or two too big at 9’s/10’s especially as it won the race last year off 3lb higher and goes well fresh (last years race also looked much stronger). I’ll go in with a new bet given my current form.
    Just wanted to put a stat or two past you and the forum having looked at the Perth card tomorrow.
    David Pipe sends Mango Cap up in the 16.40 which his only runner on the card making the 400 odd mile trip to the course. since 2011 Pipe is 13/29 at the course to an lsp of £12.89. interestingly when he sends just the one runner on the journey the stats improve to 11/18, 2/4 3 places in handicap hurdles. Mango cap was fairly highly tried last year contesting listed and class 2 races making little impact. Here it drops into class 3 company for the first time and steps up in trip to 3 miles, where Pipe is 17/85,18 places last two years with horses stepping up in trip (geegeez trainer snippets). Without much knowledge of the horse, Pipes intentions look fairly serious going all that way and take some prize money in order to pay the petrol for the travel up.

    Given its “Twister season” NTDs runners need taking seriously and also Top Billings record fresh make for a competitive heat , but I’m hoping the stats and Pipes shrewd nature are a positive in highlighting this one as a bet.

    Thoughts appreciated from all.

    1. Hi Leon, glad you have an decent enough flat season. Mine has been rather poor. Much to ponder for next season. Anyway, your Pipe horse… well you won’t get much better reasoning than that and he deserves to win at 8s/7s. That looks a decent price to me. Yard is in form and the horse really ‘could be anything’ and is doing plenty differently. It is a long way to send one if he isn’t expected to do much. I am sure there would have been many options closer to home. Logically it all makes sense to me and I have followed you and had a nibble at those odds. Good luck.

      1. Good work Leon and well done Martin. Atlantic King was disappointing but will keep on going with Hawke Juveniles for the time being!!

        1. Hope a few got on Mango Cap amongst the other winners on Josh’s stats and/or those highlighted on the forum today.
          Shame my “eye-catching runner” eye wasn’t on song with Berry Du Carjac so apologies for that one.
          Really looking forward to the battle between Ballyandy and Moon Racer tomorrow whetting the NH appetite as the season draws closer. I’m also interested to see how Flying Angel gets on in the novice chase, in which NTD has a fairly decent record in the race winning 3 times in the last 6 years.
          With a lack of value tomorrow at Perth it looks a day that NTD/Pipe could quite easily scoop 3/4 races between them but loathe to put their runners in some form of multiple given the odds and aren’t backable generally in singles.
          Away from Perth two horses run which I’ve followed / backed throughout the flat season. They are Royal Brave in the 17.10, reunited with Tudhope and back at the course where it ran its best race since catching my eye at Catterick in May. Will need plenty of luck in running given its hold up style but theres a bit of pace here in the race for it to track and hopefully pick up the pieces in the final furlong.
          Also Ferndale runs in the 17.40. Not a fancy price but ran a cracker in the Ayr Bronze Cup last week and its 2 length 5th to Roudee being franked by the winner stopping the Sliver Cup the same weekend. Not a fancy price and a couple of well handicapped animals in the race but along with Highly Sprung is the only sprinter in any recent form. Somehow dropped 2lb for its 2nd in the Bronze Cup last weekend and the fact that the flat season is drawing to an end surely Dods is seeking a win out of this one before the season end and this class 4 is the weakest race Ferndale’s contested for a long time

  2. Fully with you on By The Boardwalk at Perth. I backed him last year in what I agree was a stronger race and have gone in again.
    Also on Perth I can’t resist a bet on Atlantic King in the Juvenile Hurdle. Now this appears to be a pretty poor quality race. Trainer has had some success with his Juveniles so far – Nachi Falls, who beat Milrow the 2nd favourite for this race, into 3rd last time out. After that race Hawke said “I think Nachi Falls is nice. He is probably the best juvenile I´ve had out this season but I think I might have two or three nicer”. Now I don’t know whether Atlantic King is one of these but I don’t think he can have much more than 4 Juveniles in training – at least when I last looked at his website. At 9/1 Atlantic King is definitely worth a decent bet for – if he is anywhere near the form of Nachi Falls then you think he’d win this. The favourite Trespassed looks pretty ordinary, albeit need to respect connections around Perth, and the rest really look like poor ex flat horses.

    1. GL JV, have had to follow you in as well there with that one at 9s- hopefully we have three winners in a row! Very sound reasoning and having looked at those with a run they don’t look the greatest bunch. Trainer has only sent 3 up here before and one has one. It is a positive that Tom Scu is on as he does well for him in general. Money would be significant I think – the pair have a good record with fancied ones in non-handicap hurdles having had a quick look through.

  3. hi Josh,

    Well here’s hoping, I appreciate Pipe will most likely have a runner or two on Thursday sharing the cost of travel amongst his sting (including the exciting Moon Racer) however the one runner track stat really swayed it. It looks a race full of exposed sorts and Sun Cloud (distant 3rd in this last yr) prepping for a chase campaign and a run in the Durham national next month. Not a great insight but a snippet from Pipes website regarding Mango Cap “Mango Cap is likely to run in the 3m handicap hurdle – he had some decent form in France and hopefully the longer trip will help to bring about some improvement.” So we’ll see.

    Good luck all

    1. Yep good point about shared travel. Still, I think there is plenty to go on there and at 8s he is worth some interest having looked at it. Time will tell! The distance move stats are interesting.

  4. Hope so to Josh, Pipe knows the time of day and hopefully we see improvement for the step up in trip.

    Interesting read from JV and yourself re Hawkes juvenile runner and money so I may throw a few quid on it too. Think Hawke could have an ok trip to Perth and has a runner in the novice chase in the last – Berry De Carjac. I backed this in its hurdle race two runs ago where Scudamore held the horse together around the tight Market rasen bend coming into the home straight, it made fairly eye catching headway but didn’t have the pace to get to the front two as the bird had flown as they say, keeping on at one pace.

    I left it on its chase debut at Worcester a few weeks back as I don’t tend to back first time novice chasers. It jumped quite well in the whole putting in an encouraging run under Scu. Again at the business end of the race he seemed to look a little one paced but was keeping on at the end with a bit left in the locker. The step up to 3m may suit this one and having a spin round the Worcester fences a few weeks ago to build its confidence over the bigger obstacles he could go well tomorrow at a course not too dissimilar to Worcester.

    The form of its last race in the context of tomorrow’s weaker race isn’t too bad, with the winner Fact of the Matter potentially a mid 120’s rated chaser. The 3rd jarlath finished second 7 lengths behind class dropper Well Du Line today at Warwick. 10’s are still available but a bit of market confidence would be nice to see tomorrow.

    Leon

    1. Very interesting Leon. Will go in on the other Hawke runner Berry de Carjac. I know Jamie Snowden has thought a lot of Fact of the Matter for a while so possible that this one might be even better than a 120s chaser.

      For what it’s worth the other theory on Pipe 1 runner trip to Perth is the owner (Mrs Jo Tracey) will regularly ride up in Scotland for the owner especially for Lucinda Russell / his Dad as the owner seems to have had a few horses with her as well David Pipe. Not sure whether there is a formal agreement but it’s not impossible that they are making the journey out of loyalty to her.

  5. Evening all,

    I tend to think the 16:05 at Perth tomorrow is between By the Boardwalk and Kilronan High however my preference is for the latter. This is by far the easiest contest she has competed in recently. I think she is also considerably better going right handed (11213). Is 1/1 at the track having won on her re-appearance 2 years ago. NTD is in cracking form 5/13, 7 places in the past 30 days. The form of her 2nd 2 runs ago has been franked with the winner destroying a class 3 handicap field and the 3rd wasnt disgraced in a Grade 3 at the Punchestown festival. She is 3/3 on Good/soft ground. I think the only concern is whether she will stay however she has only had the one race over 3m which was a pretty hot one and runaway leader put everyone out of their comfort zone. On breeding I think she will stay not to mention the fact that she is one year older so should have strengthened over the summer.

    I also am hopefully that Symposium will follow up from her Brighton win in the 16:55 at Goodwood. Tipped up last time round she has been handed a plum draw and there isnt a huge amount of pace on offer. Only 3lbs higher than her win I expect her to make all from stall 2. Form of her last race has been franked with the 2nd winning NO and the 3rd placing. Haggas is still in extremely good form and Georgia Cox has been riding out of her skin and is 8/20, 10 places over the last 30 days.

    1. Hi Nick, yep at the prices that is the other one that looks most interesting and for my part probably worth a saver. She arguably has the most interesting profile out of these and this is an easier race than some of those recent ones contested and this is only her 9th chase start. To early to draw conclusions I suppose as to her ability. She could turn into a C2 horse at 3m+ or this season with another year gone. This isn’t the stiffest of tracks and it could be argued that at times she has ran as if the step up will suit. NTD is 4/13, 6 places (1/7 chasing) with those returning after 60+ days at the track in handicaps. Her jumping has been sticky at times, but then so has the selection, and that may be down to the speed/class of race she was in. Can see why you have gone for her at 8s. Hopefully one of us can have the winner.

      1. Yeah that’s the main thing. Did have a small saver on yours as well before you put it up (and than your advised stake when you did). I think you win hands down on getting the value given yours is a clear 3/1 fav now.

        1. yep, that has happened a few times though, albeit maybe not as much as that, and those horses are still running! Hopefully it is some money from owners/yards etc or some clear signs/the right money, as the reason why now so short,. Unless tipped up by some big boys maybe. I wouldn’t touch that price given the odd question but 10s/8s felt too big so at least that is justified. If you were looking at the race cold now, you would go with yours at the prices I think. Will be disappointing if one of them doesn’t take this. The 1-2 in some sort of order, if they both stay on their feet!

  6. I backed by the boardwalk @ 9/2, before logging in, now is 3/1 fav. I commented about hitman racing on sunday, paid £17.99 for a year. states he pays £5000 a year for top tipsters, then gives 4 to 6 bets daily, said
    to have made over 3000 points profit in 2 years. looked worth a go at price, so for 4 days backed all @ £10 , winning £71, then read reviews where after 6 months lost half bank. so decided to go to £1 bets with limit of -30, to ensure make profit. next day feeling smug when all 4 lost, yesterday 4 tips so 4 £1 bets, got 20 to 1 on lean on pete that won! dont know what to think now!

    1. Well good luck Malcolm. Sounds intriguing – so he pays for Tipsters, collates their info, and ‘tips’ from those original tips. Assume he has permission from said tipsters! You could do a %of bank maybe, or double stake when bank doubles etc. You are relying in him both following the right tipsters and getting his decision right so would expect it to fluctuate a bit. Any reasoning behind them or just ‘tips’? he needs a lot of subscribers to cover his costs and clearly isn’t confident in picking his own bets 🙂
      Given cost, worth persevering with. That kind of approach needs some time but given methodology I can’t think any past results are much guide as to the future. That’s just my take though. If it is working, keep at it.

  7. Hi,

    an each way poke from the Moore stable – 3.10 Go, Imari Kid, 22/1.

    I like Indus Valley, 9.10 KP, 5/1.

    Also apparently Flymetothestares is highly rated, 8.10 KP, but is only 7/2.

    Good luck.

      1. Whooosh!! You were due another biggie from the old contacts 🙂 Lovely stuff. That is 2x 20/1+ winners now? along with Gay Kellaway one a few weeks back, plus a few others at slightly shorter. Keep those contacts sweet,.

  8. Hi All

    Sorry for the late post but there is a qualifier

    6.05 Redcar – Indian Pursuit 10.5 (Adam Mcnamara for JJ Quinn)

    Cheers
    Steve

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