A couple of articles for you to flick through today..
-Some trainer notes for this week’s Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting. Grab those HERE>>>
-My monthly research piece. This one takes a look at Handicap Hurdles Oct-April and some different trainer angles. You can read those HERE>>>
I hope they help you all find a few winners.
Josh
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UPDATED…
Some stats/trends pointers for The Cambridgeshire handicap
Cambridgeshire Meeting
Last 8 runnings
256 runners, 32 placed horses
CHECKLIST
TRENDS
Previous Place
- 7/8 Top 5 LTO
- 6th or worse: 1/100, 7 places
Horse Age
- Not too much but…
- 8/8 Aged 6 or younger
- 7+ : 0/26, 3 places
- 8/8 Aged 6 or younger
Days Since Run
- Nothing much again given numbers but…
- 7/8 ran 2-45 days ago
- 46+ days: 1/49, 7 places
- 7/8 ran 2-45 days ago
Horse Weight (exc claim)
- 7/8 carried 8-4 to 9-2
- 9-3 + : 1/73, 8 places
Horse Official Rating
- OR 105 + : 0/23, 0 places
Season Runs
- 8/8 had 3-8 runs this season
- 0-2: 0/25, 1 place
- 9+ : 0/33, 2 places
Odds
- All winners 40/1< : 50/1 + : 0/65, 4 places
***
OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Headgear
- Blinkers: 1/12, 3p
- CP: 2/25, 4 p
- Visor: 0/13, 1 p
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
- Top/joint top weights: 0/11, 0 places
- 7/8 were 8th or lower in the weights.
Stalls/Draw
Stall
- 7/8 drawn stall 21 or lower
- 22+ : 1/98, 11 places
Draw Segment
- 6/8 drawn in first two quarters of the stalls
- 6/130, 18 places.. Q1+2 plays…
- 2/126, 14 places Q3+4
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
- 0-7 career runs: 0/34, 2 places
H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)
- 0-3 handicap runs: 0/39, 1 place
H-Run (distance)
- 6/8 had never run at the distance
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career).
- 8/8 had 2-6 career wins
- 0-1: 0/27, 1 place
- 7+ : 0/0/26, 4 places
H-Win (Hncp/Non)
- 0 handicap wins: 0/36, 2 places
H-Win (Season).
- 7/8 had 1+ wins this season
- 0: 1/74, 6 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best in Five Runs
- 7/8 had won at least once in last 5 starts
- Had not: 1/74, 7 places
Class Move
- 7/8 running at same or up 1 class
- Dropping: 1/33, 3 places
- Up2+ : 0/8, 0 places
Highest Class Run
- G1: 0/17, 2 places
- Listed highest level ran at: 0/36, 5 places
H-Places (Hncp/Non)
- 0-2 places in handicaps only: 0/55, 3 places
- 11+ : 0/38, 3 places
- Which means 8/8 had placed 3-10 times in handicaps (includes wins)
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
- Non handicap: 1/56, 4 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
- G3 or Listed LTO: 0/31, 2 places
(LR) Race Code (All-Weather..)
- All Weather: 0/19, 2 places
(LR) Track
- Doncaster: 2/34, 7 places
- 1 win each: Newbury/Sandown/GoodW/Thirsk/Ascot/Newmk (Row)/
- York: 0/26, 1 place
- Haydock: 0/12, 0 places
- Kempton: 0/12, 2 places
- Ayr: 0/19, 1 place
***
Trainers (of interest)
- M Tregoning: 2/6, 3 places
- 1 win each: Morrison/Fahey/Wigham/Tate/I Mohammed/J Gosden
- A Balding: 0/8, 1 p
- M Johnston: 0/10, 1 p
- W Haggas: 0/11, 1 p
Winning Profile?
- 3-8 runs this season
- OR 104 or lower
- 8+ career runs
- 4+ handicap runs
- 1+ handicap wins
- 3-10 places in handicaps, inc wins
- 2-6 career wins
To consider…
- Top 5 LTO
- Drawn 21 or lower
- Age 6 or younger
- Mark down if ran G3/Listed LTO (small enough numbers, 0/15,0/16)
5 Responses
Had a had start on the trends for the Cambridgeshire and here is what I found:
17/19 Top 5 LTO
19/19 Aged 3-6
19/19 OR 104 or less
19/19 Ran on the flat LTO
19/19 Had 8 runs this season or less
Avoid visor or hood 0/40, 3 places
16/19 (out of 424 runners) Had at least 1 win this season-those that haven’t have a much worse record in the race 3/193
18/19 ran in a class 2 to class 4 LTO
17/19 had between 1 to 5 handicap wins
10/19 had between 4 and 6 career wins including 6 of the last 7 winners
Hi Nick, thanks for this. A trends race was one of my jobs today. I will have a flick through any 8 year pointers again to add to your superb effort and maybe have a look at another trends race, if there is one.
I am sure you can something to it. Will be interesting how the 8 year and 19 year stats compare.
Yep, think it is the only big handicap race that I can see in my HRB account so will try and add to your work.
I had it down to 5-6 (will go through it agian tomorrow but only just got in and need to look at tomorrow’s cards) however given I expect good to good/firm ground the one which stood out was Treasury Notes (barring O’Meara’s 0/8 record) which given that was the horse I fancied for this before I looked at the trends I was fairly chuffed about. Will probably add a second tomorrow.