UPDATED: Stats/Trends + Cambridgeshire Meeting Trainer Notes + Research Article

Some trainer notes for this week’s Cambridgeshire meeting and a research article looking at Handicap Hurdles Oct-April.

A couple of articles for you to flick through today..

-Some trainer notes for this week’s Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting. Grab those HERE>>>

-My monthly research piece. This one takes a look at Handicap Hurdles Oct-April and some different trainer angles. You can read those HERE>>>

I hope they help you all find a few winners.

Josh

***

UPDATED…

Some stats/trends pointers for The Cambridgeshire handicap

Cambridgeshire Meeting

Last 8 runnings

256 runners, 32 placed horses

 

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 7/8 Top 5 LTO
    • 6th or worse: 1/100, 7 places

Horse Age

  • Not too much but…
    • 8/8 Aged 6 or younger
      • 7+ : 0/26, 3 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing much again given numbers but…
    • 7/8 ran 2-45 days ago
      • 46+ days: 1/49, 7 places

Horse Weight (exc claim)

  • 7/8 carried 8-4 to 9-2
    • 9-3 + : 1/73, 8 places

Horse Official Rating

  • OR 105 + : 0/23, 0 places

Season Runs

  • 8/8 had 3-8 runs this season
    • 0-2: 0/25, 1 place
    • 9+ : 0/33, 2 places

Odds

  • All winners 40/1< : 50/1 + : 0/65, 4 places

 

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Headgear

  • Blinkers: 1/12, 3p
  • CP: 2/25, 4 p
  • Visor: 0/13, 1 p

 

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top/joint top weights: 0/11, 0 places
  • 7/8 were 8th or lower in the weights.

 

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 7/8 drawn stall 21 or lower
    • 22+ : 1/98, 11 places

Draw Segment

  • 6/8 drawn in first two quarters of the stalls
    • 6/130, 18 places.. Q1+2 plays…
    • 2/126, 14 places Q3+4

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 0-7 career runs: 0/34, 2 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-3 handicap runs: 0/39, 1 place

H-Run (distance)

  • 6/8 had never run at the distance

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career).

  • 8/8 had 2-6 career wins
    • 0-1: 0/27, 1 place
    • 7+ : 0/0/26, 4 places

 

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 0 handicap wins: 0/36, 2 places

 

H-Win (Season).

  • 7/8 had 1+ wins this season
    • 0: 1/74, 6 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Five Runs

  • 7/8 had won at least once in last 5 starts
    • Had not: 1/74, 7 places

 

Class Move

  • 7/8 running at same or up 1 class
    • Dropping: 1/33, 3 places
    • Up2+ : 0/8, 0 places

 

Highest Class Run

  • G1: 0/17, 2 places
  • Listed highest level ran at: 0/36, 5 places

 

H-Places (Hncp/Non)

  • 0-2 places in handicaps only: 0/55, 3 places
  • 11+ : 0/38, 3 places
  • Which means 8/8 had placed 3-10 times in handicaps (includes wins)

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non handicap: 1/56, 4 places

 (LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

  • G3 or Listed LTO: 0/31, 2 places

 (LR) Race Code (All-Weather..)

  • All Weather: 0/19, 2 places

 

 (LR) Track

  • Doncaster: 2/34, 7 places
  • 1 win each: Newbury/Sandown/GoodW/Thirsk/Ascot/Newmk (Row)/
  • York: 0/26, 1 place
  • Haydock: 0/12, 0 places
  • Kempton: 0/12, 2 places
  • Ayr: 0/19, 1 place

 

 

***

Trainers (of interest)

  • M Tregoning: 2/6, 3 places
  • 1 win each: Morrison/Fahey/Wigham/Tate/I Mohammed/J Gosden
  • A Balding: 0/8, 1 p
  • M Johnston: 0/10, 1 p
  • W Haggas: 0/11, 1 p

 

Winning Profile?

  • 3-8 runs this season
  • OR 104 or lower
  • 8+ career runs
  • 4+ handicap runs
  • 1+ handicap wins
  • 3-10 places in handicaps, inc wins
  • 2-6 career wins

To consider…

  • Top 5 LTO
  • Drawn 21 or lower
  • Age 6 or younger
  • Mark down if ran G3/Listed LTO (small enough numbers, 0/15,0/16)

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Had a had start on the trends for the Cambridgeshire and here is what I found:

    17/19 Top 5 LTO
    19/19 Aged 3-6
    19/19 OR 104 or less
    19/19 Ran on the flat LTO
    19/19 Had 8 runs this season or less
    Avoid visor or hood 0/40, 3 places
    16/19 (out of 424 runners) Had at least 1 win this season-those that haven’t have a much worse record in the race 3/193
    18/19 ran in a class 2 to class 4 LTO
    17/19 had between 1 to 5 handicap wins
    10/19 had between 4 and 6 career wins including 6 of the last 7 winners

    1. Hi Nick, thanks for this. A trends race was one of my jobs today. I will have a flick through any 8 year pointers again to add to your superb effort and maybe have a look at another trends race, if there is one.

  2. I had it down to 5-6 (will go through it agian tomorrow but only just got in and need to look at tomorrow’s cards) however given I expect good to good/firm ground the one which stood out was Treasury Notes (barring O’Meara’s 0/8 record) which given that was the horse I fancied for this before I looked at the trends I was fairly chuffed about. Will probably add a second tomorrow.

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