FREE DAILY POST 19/09/16 (COMPLETE)

post complete. A couple of stats/angles of interest…

 

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

  • 2.30 Leic – Infinity – 5/1… (2nd 3/1) I was going to put this one in the ‘trainers in form’ bit but when I started digging there were a few more pointers of interest…Guest is the only trainer ‘in form’ in this race (using Geegeez trainer form indicators as a guide), 3/7, 3 places in the last 14 days. G Wood gets the leg up which is interesting. It is a shocker of a race but the horse’s best two runs of his last four have been over 7f on decent ground. The claim may make some difference. The trainer is 11/44, 19 places at the track in the last 5 years also- 5/11,9 places in C6 races at the track. Decent. The horse is top three in the speed ratings and gets cheekpieces for the first time. A bit there to go on I think, as a starting point..
  • 2.50 Hamilton- Cruise ToTheLimit (NR) – 4/1… I thought I would flick through the Hamilton card and see if there were any potential lone front runners who could stay there. This one is the only out and out front runner in the race from what I can see and he also has a decent speed rating. He may well try and make all up the stand side rail. I noticed him at Thirsk on his last run where he tried to make all up the rail and led for 4f or so. That day was strange as most winners ran off the rail or were drawn low which was odd given the going/history. Maybe the nearside was ‘softer’ that day. This one is 4/20,11 places when returning within 10 days of last run, 3/11, 7 places when that run is over this distance. He is 19lb below his last win and this looks a good opportunity. Given he should get an easy lead he will be running out of excuses if he can’t go close here I think. Albeit I haven’t looked at the rest of them…

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

Hamilton (any odds)

2.50 – Lady Wootton

5.50 – New Abbey Angel

 

SYSTEMS TEST 

OTT- 3.00 Leic – Permanent (16/1< guide)

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE

None. This bit will wind down a bit now as my attention/time etc slowly turns to the jumps. My tipping in sprint handicaps has been rather mixed this flat season, which has been rather torrid in general. Much to learn and improve on and I suspect this section will return next flat season where I will be trying my best to improve and offer something of value.

***

That is all for Monday.

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. An angle that may be under the radar, given it’s in hunter chases; trainer Steve Flook is profitable to ISP with a sr at 19.6% (22/112), + 27 pts (44% placed, – 12 pts)…think I’ll put him on the watch list. If anyone fancies trying to dig out an “in” for the season – I’ve not got a HRB account – please feel free.
    Paul

      1. Cheers Mozzer. Didn’t realise he’d been champion hunter chase trainer 10 years ago…should have done a bit more checking. Profitable over all timescales though, even if only + 1 pt for the last 12 months, so may still follow. Thanks for the research.
        Paul

        1. Has a flat runner today, Dubai Mission (400 L), ex Richard Hannon (“plenty of ability in four maidens” says the geegeez comment) first time tongue tie, upped half a mile plus (stayed on same pace says the last couple of reports), currently 20/1 but I’ll chuck a few pennies at it on the exchanges to see if it gets matched at 40. Maybe just getting him warned up for HCs, who knows.
          Paul

  2. Jim Crowley has 3 2yo bookings for Hugo Palmer at Kmpton
    2.40 Spring Jig 4/1 bet365
    3.10 Oudwood 14/1 betvic
    3.40 Choumicha 5/1 betvic
    hopfully one will oblige

  3. Hi all

    2 x qualifiers for tomorrow

    2.00 Leicester – The Stalking Moon 13.0 (Adam Mcnamara) 33% win SR, 58.33% place SR for JJ Quinn
    5.10 Kempton – Imperial State 9.0 (Josephine Gordon) 33.33% win SR, 100% place SR for G Scott

    JG had another winner on Saturday for H Palmer on Baydar to boost that already impressive 55% SR for the trainer with what could arguably be the ride of the season, It was k fallon…esque the way she galvanised and lifted that horse home…The comments from James Willoughby pretty much summed up the ride..”There will be no dust in the Gordon carpets at home” as she proved she can mix it with the best brilliant stuff

    Cheers
    Steve

  4. Hi, I hear that Stepper Point has a fair each way chance at 16/1 today, 3.30 Lei.

    Also the Gary Moore stable are concerned over the draw for German Whip, 5.40 KP. I would suggest not going too short on this horse. As an each way alternative Ubla should be suited by the track and distance. Some 10/1 about.

    Good luck.

    1. Cheers Martin – and thanks for the point of view on the Moore stable yesterday. Didn’t back either in the end but perspective was helpful.

      1. We missed Osgood though! My source did not fancy it, the fool! Still we had a 3/1 winner and avoided Golanova.

        I have some contact with the Gay Kelleway stable that I hope will pay off come the all weather in particular.

    2. Thanks Martin. Stepper Point 5/1 to place (Betfair SB) which seems overly generous…I could only get £1 on, mind, but that’s them all over.
      Paul

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