- A Tip in the 6.05 Hexam
- One Stats/Angles horse
- Some Jumps Notes
- Bronze Cup – two test tips plus some thoughts on others
Members Club… Some trends/stats for the Silver Cup have been posted up. The Gold Cup will follow Friday morning at some point.
The trainer notes have had a decent Day 1 as I write. The positive pointers for the five trainers have pointed to winners at 14/1, 14/1, 9/1>4/1, 10/1>9/4, a second at 25s also. The notes have thrown up plenty of horses against the ‘positive’ bullet points for each trainer. Come the end of race 6, looking at every runner… 22 possible bets / 4 wins / 10 wins or places / +29 points or so if you had put one point on them all to win Thursday morning. I certainly didn’t do that but I hope they may have helped point some of you to one or more of those winners. These types of notes don’t always work but they did well enough at Donny. I can’t see a day like that being repeated and it will be interesting to see how they get on for the next couple of days.
I was feeling a bit gloomy after the Listowel race. Sometimes it appears I have never looked at a horse race before in my life given some of the results. I did try and give myself a confidence boost by looking at results for 2016 in 3m+ handicap chases. Clearly it has been a bit awful in the last few months but with any luck I can repeat the following figures in the months ahead, fingers crossed…
132 bets / 22 wins / 42 places / 16.6% win SR / 32% win|p sr / +99.45 points to advised prices/stakes
168.5 points staked, 59% ROI.
Hopefully it all picks up a bit from October, or maybe even Friday…
Ueueteotl – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (general)
I wouldn’t be tempted in on this one at 5s/6s say but 9/1, 10/1 seems a bit big to me. It may be an indication of his fitness and any walk in the market would be a concern but I am happy to take a chance at these odds.
This is only the 9th chase start of his life and he seems to like it around here. He won his Novice Chase here, ran ok NTO here as well going down 2L having got tapped for toe by the front two when turning in. He has also won a handicap hurdle race two starts ago at around this distance. In November last year he ran well in defeat at Doncaster in a big field chase which had a bit more depth than this one I think. He was brave and kept fighting them off from the front, succumbing to an Evan Williams horse who had loads in hand. The rest were well enough beaten and the front three were some way clear. Following that the wheels somewhat came off and maybe his confidence went or whatever. I am not sure but he was inexperienced. I suspect the greyhound track at Cartmel may not have suited LTO. He can be a bit of a thinker it seems but I have watched a few of his videos and he always seems to respond to a rider’s encouragement. He looks like a trier. In that Donny race his jumping got better as they went along and hopefully in this smaller field he has enough daylight and can get into a rhythm. He can be a bit awkward but 10s allows that chance I think, in the context of this race. I would hope they have spent some time schooling him plenty. I also found it intriguing that they return to fences, after the break, at a track they know he likes and where the trainer does welll…
Ewart has a solid record with his handicap chasers here and is 3/11, 4 places in the last 730 days. He is 2/8 in the last 5 years with handicap chasers returning here after a break of 60+ days. The horse has ran well after longer breaks for this trainer and I think if he wants him fit he will be. As I said the market may indicate whether he is here to blow some cobwebs away but while Mr Nevison on RUK may wait all day at Ayr for the market to move before informing us which one ‘looks fancied’, that isn’t really the way to do it 🙂 Not for me anyway. Maybe ‘following the money’ and backing a horse at 5s when he was 10s is the way to go, who knows!! The jockey knows the horse well also.
Pace… well he can race prominently and in this field I hope they bump him out. That will be his best chance. I don’t like it when he has to chase down horses really as you will be holding your breath a bit at the odd fence as he is fired into it. Penda Dorada can be up there but I think our boy may be quicker than him, if sent forward. Ballyben can also be up there but after the break I hope they ease him in! Either way he should be front rank so no real excuses. That is generally the place to be here, very hard to make up too much ground- especially after the last. Unless you have more class of course.
Well maybe I don’t want to be against Present Lodger but then again I wouldn’t want to be with him at those odds. He still has to prove he really stays for me and this isn’t flat like Perth. He has a good record fresh and I think was outstayed. He is a decent horse who may come on for the run and if he stays is the one to take all the beating. He is better than this lot and if it was over 2m4f he would be an even money, odds on shot I think. He could improve further this season and I wont be dogmatic as to his stamina- just in the context of his price it is a question mark. His ability may make that irrelevant though as he can clearly run well around this distance. Russell hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for months it seems – no consistency. She is 1/16, 2 places in the last 14 days. The Tim Vaughan of the north!
Follow The Swollow is unexposed but enough questions for me. He returns for a new trainer who is 2/25 with newcomers in the last two years and 3/32,6 places with handicap chasers returning after breaks of 60+ days. He is unexposed so not a shock winner. His jumping was shoddy for old connections. Interested how he runs but enough for me to want to watch at around 5s. Ballyben – well the market may guide as he ticks plenty of boxes and has the ability to win this well. He returns after a long break for new connections and fitness if the question. Jefferson can ready them but 7/2 is not 10/1 when you are guessing a bit as to their sharpness. With a run under his belt this price would look quite big I think. He finished ahead of the selection in one of those Donny races and has ability. A been there and done it horse who has won at C3. All about whether he is ready I think. It is also his first run over fences here and it is an idiosyncratic chase course. He won over hurdles at the track and undulations are no concern.
I was struggling to make a case for any others. Dursey Sound doesn’t look to like undulating tracks over fences and has a bit to prove at the moment. His only win in recent times was when galvanised by an inspired Dickie Johnson. Happy to leave him. I would hope Pena Dorada is not good enough. A repeat of those recent runs should not be good enough with the fav, BallyBen and the selection in here. I would think one of those three is winning this. But, he has been consistent to a point this summer. Eggs, sourced from Listowel, at the ready! Officer Cadet- there seems to be money for that one and I can’t see it. That makes you wary but he has done nothing to date over fences or for this trainer and I am struggling to see what he is doing different. Unexposed, Brennan up and handicap mark down. But, I can’t have him. Backing that type consistently in races like this won’t lead to a growing bank I don’t think. More egg at the ready.
So, hopefully we get a run for our money here. He will progress past previous chase form at some point at around this level and has some ability. There are reasons why the two principles may not run their race and why others may not either. He may not be good enough, may not be sharp enough, may hit a fence. At 10s, in the context of this race and the trainer’s record, I was happy to take a chance.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Only one for the shortlist on Friday but he looks interesting on the stats…
- 2.45 Newbury…Not Never (2nd) 8/1 | 7/1… this looks like a decent EW bet to me I think… Palmer is 19/65, 36 places…+32 SP wit horses after a break of 60+ days. Having had a deeper look in HRB-those 365+ days off are 0/5, 3 places. 121-364 days are 18/81, 22 places…+65 SP all runners. If he wants him fit he should be here. The trainer is in form again…is he ever out of form?? 5/20, 9 places in the last 2 weeks. He doesn’t send many up here either but has done well…4/10, 7 places in the last year, 5/21, 8 places in total. Finally, stats wise, there is Ryan Moore. The pair are 4/10, 8 places when teaming up in handicaps. The horse was/is a classy type who has run well in decent C2s so this is a drop down in class. Clearly there have been problems and the market may well guide as to his readiness. Any money and I think we can get excited. There will be more to come at some point. Finally- it looks like he needs some cut and there is rain/thunderstorms forecast. His chance may well depend on whether that comes or not. If it remains firm I would hope they take him out. If not he will take his chance. He is also one of the pace angles in this and should be in the right place whatever happens. So, horse/trainer wise etc everything looks good for an 8s/7s shot. I haven’t looked at the oppo though….
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.45 Newb: Silver Quay (6/1< guide)
4.50 Ayr: Great Fighter (16/1<)
5.30 Newb: Torch (6/1< guide)
A few for me to check against my notes from the Sept/Oct trainers…
4.05 NA – Pawn Star 5/2 UP – (ticks 1+ run 90 days box) / Belmont WON (within the odds but not the rest pattern stats. Has winners after break but have to pick them carefully. Wouldn’t be put off if you like his form chance, but not one to back ‘systematically’ as such)
4.40 NA – Guiting Power – (same as above, nothing in terms of my ‘positive’ stats. NTD can get them fit if he wants but stats not there to back them all blind at this time of year)
7.05 Hex – Civil Unrest (ticks box- well it is a simple box of all his handicap runners at this time of year, small numbers but they usually go well. 9/22,11 places all cappers before this year)
Some notes using my stats profile. I won’t repeat the stats but we can see how they get on. A decent 8/1 winner at Fontwell from the handful there and complete blowout at Kelso so far, albeit some close places and the ground went against a couple. This guide should be ready by this time next week all being well….
6.05 – Ueueteotl
6.35 – DownTime
…I don’t like it when there are that many. I haven’t looked in any depth but the stats are decent enough behind all of them and may help point the way if you look at the race/horses in more depth. Backing them all isn’t really an option!
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
4.15 Ayr – (-4 points)
Dark Defender – 1 point EW – 10/1 – 12/1 (UP) (5 places around) (result will be recorded to 5 places- 6 bookies)
Ocean Sheridan – 1 point EW – 10/1 (UP, 11/2) (general, 5 places around)*
*that was enjoyable to watch for two thirds as Ocean Sheridan cantered all over them. Then slam went the door, twice. Game over. Bugger. Bloody sprint handicaps. Looks like jockeys have decided all to come up the middle and shun the rails either side. No one has raced up near side so hard to say how it is riding. That will mean plenty more bad luck in running as all on top of each other.
Well I was going to sit on the fence for this one but I may as well test the theory here… it looks like you want a middle to low drawn horse who races prominently. Tick and tick.
Dark Defender- he is in form, will relish conditions, is unexposed, comes from a trainer in form (10/39,17p last 14 days) and whose horses ran well at this meeting yesterday. Crowley stays in the saddle. There are plenty of positives for one at a double figure price.
Ocean Sheridan- well I would repeat the exact write up above for this one as well really. He will relish conditions, will be up there, looks progressive and is in form. He may have had the favoured far side but it was still impressive enough. There could be more to come and he looks an OK ew bet.
Now, some caution…I haven’t looked through every runner in great detail here and that may cost me, we shall see. This remains a test section for a reason and there is still improvement to be made- in general, in tracking horses, and finding ways to go with horses without spending 1-2 hours looking at a race. I will get there, one day.
Of the rest… well Twin Appeal was tipped LTO and I have had some change on at 25s just in case. Has this been a plan? I am unsure. He has some class questions on turf and recent form at this distance. He is better over further but gets his ground and there could be a strong pace. The jockey should go low if he can and he may well out-run these odds. A few niggles. But he is 25s and will win at some point this autumn I feel. Fendale has been tipped previously but I do have some ground questions. But he gets first time headgear – one of trainer’s horses yesterday ran well in first time blinkers at 25s – and that may help. He is on the right side from what we know. He does need to bounce back into some form after that last run, but two starts ago he ‘won’ his side at Ripon. Not without a chance. Finally Ballymore Castle was an eye-catcher way back when at Pontefract. He looks a tricky bugger with his own ideas. IF there is no track bias- maybe it was just a pace bias yesterday- he could build on that better run LTO. He has a ground question also.
I can see why Giant Spark is the price he is. Progressive, in form, winning races well. He won’t be far away I shouldn’t think but 5s is plenty short enough in a race like this.
I probably haven’t mentioned the winner. An interesting race, not one to go mad on by any means but they are my thoughts, for what they are worth.
That will do for today.
Any ‘tips’ or ‘test tips’ for the Gold Cup and Silver Cup will be posted by 5.30 pm this evening due to weekend plans. I will pull my finger out.
Gold Cup trends/stats should be posted by 11am.
Good Luck with your bets.