FREE DAILY POST: 16/09/2016 (COMPLETE)

Complete… A chase tip, a shortlist pointer, two horses for Bronze Cup…

Summary…

  • A Tip in the 6.05 Hexam
  • One Stats/Angles horse
  • Some Jumps Notes
  • Bronze Cup – two test tips plus some thoughts on others

***

 

Members Club… Some trends/stats for the Silver Cup have been posted up. The Gold Cup will follow Friday morning at some point.

The trainer notes have had a decent Day 1 as I write. The positive pointers for the five trainers have pointed to winners at 14/1, 14/1, 9/1>4/1, 10/1>9/4, a second at 25s also. The notes have thrown up plenty of horses against the ‘positive’ bullet points for each trainer. Come the end of race 6, looking at every runner… 22 possible bets / 4 wins / 10 wins or places / +29 points or so if you had put one point on them all to win Thursday morning. I certainly didn’t do that but I hope they may have helped point some of you to one or more of those winners. These types of notes don’t always work but they did well enough at Donny. I can’t see a day like that being repeated and it will be interesting to see how they get on for the next couple of days.

***

I was feeling a bit gloomy after the Listowel race. Sometimes it appears I have never looked at a horse race before in my life given some of the results. I did try and give myself a confidence boost by looking at results for 2016 in 3m+ handicap chases. Clearly it has been a bit awful in the last few months but with any luck I can repeat the following figures in the months ahead, fingers crossed…

132 bets / 22 wins / 42 places / 16.6% win SR / 32% win|p sr / +99.45 points to advised prices/stakes

168.5 points staked, 59% ROI.

Hopefully it all picks up a bit from October, or maybe even Friday…

***

***

TIPS

6.05 Hexham

Ueueteotl – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (general)

I wouldn’t be tempted in on this one at 5s/6s say but 9/1, 10/1 seems a bit big to me. It may be an indication of his fitness and any walk in the market would be a concern but I am happy to take a chance at these odds.

Why?

This is only the 9th chase start of his life and he seems to like it around here. He won his Novice Chase here, ran ok NTO here as well going down 2L having got tapped for toe by the front two when turning in. He has also won a handicap hurdle race two starts ago at around this distance. In November last year he ran well in defeat at Doncaster in a big field chase which had a bit more depth than this one I think. He was brave and kept fighting them off from the front, succumbing to an Evan Williams horse who had loads in hand. The rest were well enough beaten and the front three were some way clear. Following that the wheels somewhat came off and maybe his confidence went or whatever. I am not sure but he was inexperienced. I suspect the greyhound track at Cartmel may not have suited LTO. He can be a bit of a thinker it seems but I have watched a few of his videos and he always seems to respond to a rider’s encouragement. He looks like a trier. In that Donny race his jumping got better as they went along and hopefully in this smaller field he has enough daylight and can get into a rhythm. He can be a bit awkward but 10s allows that chance I think, in the context of this race. I would hope they have spent some time schooling him plenty. I also found it intriguing that they return to fences, after the break, at a track they know he likes and where the trainer does welll…

Ewart has a solid record with his handicap chasers here and is 3/11, 4 places in the last 730 days. He is 2/8 in the last 5 years with handicap chasers returning here after a break of 60+ days. The horse has ran well after longer breaks for this trainer and I think if he wants him fit he will be. As I said the market may indicate whether he is here to blow some cobwebs away but while Mr Nevison on RUK may wait all day at Ayr for the market to move before informing us which one ‘looks fancied’, that isn’t really the way to do it 🙂 Not for me anyway. Maybe ‘following the money’ and backing a horse at 5s when he was 10s is the way to go, who knows!! The jockey knows the horse well also.

Pace… well he can race prominently and in this field I hope they bump him out. That will be his best chance. I don’t like it when he has to chase down horses really as you will be holding your breath a bit at the odd fence as he is fired into it. Penda Dorada can be up there but I think our boy may be quicker than him, if sent forward. Ballyben can also be up there but after the break I hope they ease him in! Either way he should be front rank so no real excuses. That is generally the place to be here, very hard to make up too much ground- especially after the last. Unless you have more class of course.

The oppo…

Well maybe I don’t want to be against Present Lodger but then again I wouldn’t want to be with him at those odds. He still has to prove he really stays for me and this isn’t flat like Perth. He has a good record fresh and I think was outstayed. He is a decent horse who may come on for the run and if he stays is the one to take all the beating. He is better than this lot and if it was over 2m4f he would be an even money, odds on shot I think. He could improve further this season and I wont be dogmatic as to his stamina- just in the context of his price it is a question mark. His ability may make that irrelevant though as he can clearly run well around this distance. Russell hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for months it seems – no consistency. She is 1/16, 2 places in the last 14 days. The Tim Vaughan of the north!

Follow The Swollow is unexposed but enough questions for me. He returns for a new trainer who is 2/25 with newcomers in the last two years and 3/32,6 places with handicap chasers returning after breaks of 60+ days. He is unexposed so not a shock winner. His jumping was shoddy for old connections. Interested how he runs but enough for me to want to watch at around 5s. Ballyben – well the market may guide as he ticks plenty of boxes and has the ability to win this well. He returns after a long break for new connections and fitness if the question. Jefferson can ready them but 7/2 is not 10/1 when you are guessing a bit as to their sharpness. With a run under his belt this price would look quite big I think. He finished ahead of the selection in one of those Donny races and has ability. A been there and done it horse who has won at C3. All about whether he is ready I think. It is also his first run over fences here and it is an idiosyncratic chase course. He won over hurdles at the track and undulations are no concern.

I was struggling to make a case for any others. Dursey Sound doesn’t look to like undulating tracks over fences and has a bit to prove at the moment. His only win in recent times was when galvanised by an inspired Dickie Johnson. Happy to leave him. I would hope Pena Dorada is not good enough. A repeat of those recent runs should not be good enough with the fav, BallyBen and the selection in here. I would think one of those three is winning this. But, he has been consistent to a point this summer. Eggs, sourced from Listowel, at the ready! Officer Cadet- there seems to be money for that one and I can’t see it. That makes you wary but he has done nothing to date over fences or for this trainer and I am struggling to see what he is doing different. Unexposed, Brennan up and handicap mark down. But, I can’t have him. Backing that type consistently in races like this won’t lead to a growing bank I don’t think. More egg at the ready.

So, hopefully we get a run for our money here. He will progress past previous chase form at some point at around this level and has some ability. There are reasons why the two principles may not run their race and why others may not either. He may not be good enough, may not be sharp enough, may hit a fence. At 10s, in the context of this race and the trainer’s record, I was happy to take a chance.

 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Only one for the shortlist on Friday but he looks interesting on the stats…

  • 2.45 Newbury…Not Never (2nd) 8/1 | 7/1… this looks like a decent EW bet to me I think… Palmer is 19/65, 36 places…+32 SP wit horses after a break of 60+ days. Having had a deeper look in HRB-those 365+ days off are 0/5, 3 places. 121-364 days are 18/81, 22 places…+65 SP all runners. If he wants him fit he should be here. The trainer is in form again…is he ever out of form?? 5/20, 9 places in the last 2 weeks. He doesn’t send many up here either but has done well…4/10, 7 places in the last year, 5/21, 8 places in total. Finally, stats wise, there is Ryan Moore. The pair are 4/10, 8 places when teaming up in handicaps. The horse was/is a classy type who has run well in decent C2s so this is a drop down in class. Clearly there have been problems and the market may well guide as to his readiness. Any money and I think we can get excited. There will be more to come at some point. Finally- it looks like he needs some cut and there is rain/thunderstorms forecast. His chance may well depend on whether that comes or not. If it remains firm I would hope they take him out. If not he will take his chance. He is also one of the pace angles in this and should be in the right place whatever happens. So, horse/trainer wise etc everything looks good for an 8s/7s shot. I haven’t looked at the oppo though….

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.45 Newb: Silver Quay (6/1< guide)

4.50 Ayr: Great Fighter (16/1<)

5.30 Newb: Torch (6/1< guide)

 

JUMPS NOTES

A few for me to check against my notes from the Sept/Oct trainers…

4.05 NA – Pawn Star 5/2 UP – (ticks 1+ run 90 days box) / Belmont WON (within the odds but not the rest pattern stats. Has winners after break but have to pick them carefully. Wouldn’t be put off if you like his form chance, but not one to back ‘systematically’ as such)

4.40 NA – Guiting Power – (same as above, nothing in terms of my ‘positive’ stats. NTD can get them fit if he wants but stats not there to back them all blind at this time of year)

7.05 Hex – Civil Unrest (ticks box- well it is a simple box of all his handicap runners at this time of year, small numbers but they usually go well. 9/22,11 places all cappers before this year)

 

HEXAM….

Some notes using my stats profile. I won’t repeat the stats but we can see how they get on. A decent 8/1 winner at Fontwell from the handful there and complete blowout at Kelso so far, albeit some close places and the ground went against a couple. This guide should be ready by this time next week all being well….

6.05 – Ueueteotl

6.35 – DownTime

7.05 –

-Civil Unrest

-Gunner Lindley

-Mrs Grass

-Definitely Glad

-Morning Time

…I don’t like it when there are that many. I haven’t looked in any depth but the stats are decent enough behind all of them and may help point the way if you look at the race/horses in more depth. Backing them all isn’t really an option!

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

4.15 Ayr  – (-4 points)

Dark Defender – 1 point EW – 10/1 – 12/1 (UP) (5 places around) (result will be recorded to 5 places- 6 bookies)

Ocean Sheridan – 1 point EW – 10/1 (UP, 11/2) (general, 5 places around)*

*that was enjoyable to watch for two thirds as Ocean Sheridan cantered all over them. Then slam went the door, twice. Game over. Bugger.  Bloody sprint handicaps. Looks like jockeys have decided all to come up the middle and shun the rails either side. No one has raced up near side so hard to say how it is riding. That will mean plenty more bad luck in running as all on top of each other.  

Well I was going to sit on the fence for this one but I may as well test the theory here… it looks like you want a middle to low drawn horse who races prominently. Tick and tick.

Dark Defender- he is in form, will relish conditions, is unexposed, comes from a trainer in form (10/39,17p last 14 days) and whose horses ran well at this meeting yesterday. Crowley stays in the saddle. There are plenty of positives for one at a double figure price.

Ocean Sheridan- well I would repeat the exact write up above for this one as well really. He will relish conditions, will be up there, looks progressive and is in form. He may have had the favoured far side but it was still impressive enough. There could be more to come and he looks an OK ew bet.

Now, some caution…I haven’t looked through every runner in great detail here and that may cost me, we shall see. This remains a test section for a reason and there is still improvement to be made- in general, in tracking horses, and finding ways to go with horses without spending 1-2 hours looking at a race. I will get there, one day.

Of the rest… well Twin Appeal was tipped LTO and I have had some change on at 25s just in case. Has this been a plan? I am unsure. He has some class questions on turf and recent form at this distance. He is better over further but gets his ground and there could be a strong pace. The jockey should go low if he can and he may well out-run these odds. A few niggles. But he is 25s and will win at some point this autumn I feel. Fendale has been tipped previously but I do have some ground questions. But he gets first time headgear – one of trainer’s horses yesterday ran well in first time blinkers at 25s – and that may help. He is on the right side from what we know. He does need to bounce back into some form after that last run, but two starts ago he ‘won’ his side at Ripon. Not without a chance. Finally Ballymore Castle was an eye-catcher way back when at Pontefract. He looks a tricky bugger with his own ideas. IF there is no track bias- maybe it was just a pace bias yesterday- he could build on that better run LTO. He has a ground question also.

I can see why Giant Spark is the price he is. Progressive, in form, winning races well. He won’t be far away I shouldn’t think but 5s is plenty short enough in a race like this.

I probably haven’t mentioned the winner. An interesting race, not one to go mad on by any means but they are my thoughts, for what they are worth.

 

***

That will do for today.

Any ‘tips’ or ‘test tips’ for the Gold Cup and Silver Cup will be posted by 5.30 pm this evening due to weekend plans. I will pull my finger out.

Gold Cup trends/stats should be posted by 11am.

Good Luck with your bets.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

    1. Cheers Chris. Just had a quick look – very interesting that all headgear etc is removed for the first time in a very long time. I wonder what impact that will have on him. He may try and blast off and if travelling well over the first couple you could be in. Ability is there somewhere, just a bit of a monkey.

  1. hi josh will you be having something on TWIN APPEAL in the bronze cup tomorrow looks interesting at 25s it helps to get a bit further than 6f at ayr that run the other day could have been a freshner antony

    1. Hi Antony- given his price I will probably have to have £5 on or something. Not sure I could be confident. Seems odd to come out so quick. Middle to low was the place to be in the last at Ayr on Thursday- whether or not he is quite low enough we shall see. What pace there is is drawn 10 or below, and boxes 1-4 all like to get on with it. On paper it seems a race for the low numbers and I suppose if you cut off down the middle, at Twin Appear, it makes it an easier race to analyse! I will watch with interest for Saturday. I would be sick if he won at 25s so will have to throw something at him just in case. Dark Defender 14s EW and Giant Spark 6s (skinny enough) stand out to me having had a 3 minute look at pace/IE tab etc/ speed ratings. I couldn’t find any trends for it so doubt I will look at it properly as you need some help in a race like that if you are not to spend hours on it.

  2. Evening all,

    My luck continues although only thing to do is plug on. (although if this continues I may need you to return to Croatia Josh since I think you accidently took my luck with you and left it there by mistake mate, considering I havent had any since last Tuesday)

    Firstly I love the look of Belmount in the 16:05 at newton Abbot. Twister season is upon us and Newton Abbot is one of the top 3 tracks he does well during this time. He is actually 2/5 in Newton Abbot handicap chases in the past 2 years. The horse himself seems to be best when running fresh with a record of 12 the past 2 years on re-appearance. Last season he lost by half a length in a simular sort of race off 3lbs higher. He is also 1/3, 2 places over distance.

    I am going to give Fendale another chance in the Ayr Bronze Cup. As Josh pointed out above all the pace is low and also there appears to be a decent sized bias to horses drawn low based on today’s 5f race. Hopefully the cheekpieces will help as well. I dont view Beasley on board as a negative since he is currently in cracking form and rides well both at the track (1st,2nd and a 3rd today at Ayr) and has shown he does well in these big field handicaps.

    The 15:05 at Ayr is trickier particularly given there is considerably less pace and it appears to be evenly spread. However putting the theory that its an advantage to be drawn low I have gone for Bogart. Its actually the first time he has ran in a class 4 since his debut which he won at this very track. That York run makes me think there is still plenty of ability there. He also came 3rd in the Silver Cup 2 years ago so he clearly likes the track. Eaves has really be riding well at the moment. He should get a nice tow into the race with I’ll Be Good drawn next to him. I do want to have a small saver on Arctic Feeling who with McNamara on is effectively racing off 80 so 9 lbs lower than his win at the start of the season. All the conditions seem perfect. Whilst he has yet to win a handicap here (did win a listed race as a 2 yr old) he has ran consistantly well with a 6th and 7th in the Bronze/Silver Cups the past 2 years. The main concern is the draw although at least the pace on the high side should come from stalls 18 and 21 so at least he wont be far away from that.

    I was tempted to back Not Never particularly since Palmer clearly rates this horse and was hoping he would be a Chester Cup and Ebor horse this year and thought he would be a proper long distance horse. He did however say that he needs cut in the ground and tommorow looks to be Good/Firm. Obviously the Ryan Moore booking doesnt make sense if he isnt fancied so if he does win tomorrow than the run should be marked up. Either way it will be interesting what targets he has for the end of the season.

    1. Haha. If your bad luck continues I will get booking,wouldn’t need an excuse to head back there!
      Just on Not Never is ground is one thing putting you off…someone tweeted me saying it was pouring down at Newbury. Rain was/is forecast so hopefully there is some cut. If it is firm I hope he is a NR! We shall see. Maybe best waiting until morning.
      I will have a look at sprints and see how many I have previously tipped! Fendale is from one of my top 5 trainers at track and most of hos ran well on day 1. Ocean Sheridan looks ok from 9 in one of them as well. He could build on that win and will be up there. Much to ponder.

      1. Yeah thats probably not a bad plan on Not Never. Hopefully the price doesnt drop too much until than. I know what you mean about the sprints. I think I might shoot myself if Ballymore Castle wins. Has been a proper cliff horse for me this year.

        1. Appears to now be Heavy!! Blimey, that may temper enthusiasm the other way. Guessing game for most in here as to how they may handle that and far from ideal after the break if it takes some getting. Conundrum. Will take a chance but not as confident as I was. Was hoping rain would just take edge off.

          1. I thought we were definitely getting cut after the showers were so bad they woke me up in the middle of the night but fuck me it’s gone heavy!

      2. I guess you can shelve those travel plans for the moment even if I am currently torn between the elation of getting a winner and Bronze Cup 2nd to the pain of just missing out on a 100/1 double. Nice to be back on track though.

  3. Now that Paddy Brennan is a free agent (could he be thinking along same lines as Jim Crowley?) i will be following his rides,you have down time up there which is one of his rides at hexham tomorrow,had 2 wins from 7 for ellison last season,horse is fine for ground and distance,although not winning often,hopefully Paddy can get him over line in front

    1. Yea that is the one that looked interesting at odds to me. Can be a monkey and finds it hard to win but did like Brennan being booked. Trainer in form also and he should be right up front,if not leading. This trip on this track could be ideal,just emptied over last 2 LTO. Light weight but then he may not have class. 9s looked worth a little tickle in a poor race. Questions,inc stamina,over a few.

  4. Hi Josh / all

    A good day today with the systems 2 x 8/1 sp winners, 2 x 2nds a 3rd & 4th from the 6 selections with a forecast in the 7.20pm …..but onwards to tomorrow no system bets but an interesting race is the 1.30 Ayr

    The sire “Born to Sea” is new to the breeding scene this year with 56 runners, 5 winners & 12 places at 8.93% win SR, so no great shakes but if we break this down by going we can see that 4 of those wins have come on Soft or Yielding with the other win on good, In fact if we just look at soft & yielding the figures would now be 5 runs 4 wins 5 places and if we further break this down by race distance we have the following:

    6F 1 run 1 win 1 place
    7F 2 runs 2 wins 2 places
    71/2F 1 run 1 win 1 place
    1M 1 run 0 win 1 place

    So as a piece of study we can say fairly confidently that horses bred by “Born to Sea” have ideal conditions if soft or yielding between 6F & 71/2F with 7F being the optimum on all known knowledge….

    The 1.30 at Ayr provides us with these optimum conditions 7F, Soft, Class 4 ( 1 out of 1 in C4) and the horse in question is Naval Warfare (4.33) He has had 2 previous runs a 4th on gd/sft at sandown 7F running green before staying on & a 2nd on gd ground at Ffos Las over 71/2F leading before being caught staying on one pace..He is top rated on HRB and with what should be optimum conditions has to be a play for me.

    Another of interest in the same race is the first time starter Helm Reef (11.00) bred out of the Austrailian sire Helmet with overall stats of 106 races, 18 wins, 39 places….this fellow also has a preference for soft & heavy though not as conclusive with figs of 10 runs 3 wins 4 places….and has proved a liking for both polytrack & tapeta with a 40% SR…Over 7F, Soft, he is 3 runs 1 win 1 place and comes from the combination that won the race in 2015 Mulrennan / Dods so a 1/2 point saver on this one too

    Cheers
    Steve

  5. Have to concur with your analysis of the 4.15 at Ayr especially as my best “paid for” Tipster whose tips always run well when you both concur in the same race has identified your 2 and one other. The “other” is interesting on a few angles and is a nice price – KHELMAN – nice middle draw, OK on soft; decent handicap mark and would not be without a chance based on the Fahey angle – I’ve got a few quid on all 3 each way and a tricast covering all options – numerous bookies going odds to 5th including Sky (also in 3.05) Hills; PP; 365; Coral)

  6. After 75mm Not Never gets ‘cut’!
    I thought Ocean Sheridan, at double the odds of the fav was the bet last night after finishing strongly to beat better oppos lto and I had backed Arctic Feeling 305, before the price was decimated.
    So Beloved 425 won’t mind the heavy going and the drop in class.
    Generous Chief 330 will relish the extra half mile and is my NH bet of the day.
    I’m hoping for profit not egg.

    1. Good luck Chris. Haha- yep aren’t we all. I only get the egg ready when I have semi strong views on a horse not doing something – inevitably the odd one does exactly the opposite to what I thought they might do!

      No idea if Not Never will handle heavy but he will try and make all and dictate which should help if can get a breather in etc. Should be hard to come from behind you would think, in small field- if saving something. Trainer gave positive write up in Betfair column- wont lack for fitness.

  7. Hi, I like two in the 4.15 at Ayr, Giant Spark and Duke Cosimo (25/1). It looks as if are both suited to race conditions today?

    1. Hi Martin- yep Giant Spark looks to have a very good chance but 5s put me off a tad, personally. He should give you a decent run for money on paper. No great views on Duke – plenty of old form that would give him a chance and has been running ok, although last couple runs no better than that. I have gone with idea that there is a pace/draw bias on the low side in this race. That may be wrong, we shall see! GL. Good price.

    1. Yep- based on their going stick and all evidence to date, low seems to be the place to be. Half tempted to ‘unload’ a little on the top three in the 4.15! Hopefully one of my two goes in. Bias seems to be middle to low, on that side. They are shunning rail but seems to be a bog from halfway across to nearside. Horses look like they are running through treacle compared to others. Were all level for most part, final 2f or so lows pulled away.

  8. A nearly day for me Khelman at 20/1 and Classy Anne at 28/1 both nice but of place money and Ocean Sheridan very unlucky in running – it all starts again tomorrow….

  9. Hi Josh

    Unlucky with UeUe thought he jumped well in the main just lost position & momentum at a vital stage and another day I’m sure you would have collected….I did have 1/2 point win & place so doubled my stake

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Yep that was a bit heartbreaking to watch but will take the positives! Jumped well bar that one crunching error. Lost plenty of lengths and took time for jock to get him back into it. Looked like he would go on to lead then a merry dance. Never mind. Hopefully Liverpool can lift the mood!

  10. A word of thanks to Rob who mentioned a couple of days ago about a little system to follow at Listowel. This was to follow horses who had been placed in the first three earlier in the week. The selection that day didn’t place. However, there were four bets today, of which three won, at 2/1, 11/4, and 3/1. Nice one Rob, much appreciated….

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