UPDATED: AYR Silver Cup + Gold Cup Stats/Trends/Pointers

Silver Cup to start with…

Two races of interest this Saturday: The Ayr Silver and Gold Cups. 

I have looked at the last 8 renewals again as a guide. 

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Ayr Silver Cup 2016

Looking at the last 8 renewals

2008-

202 runners, 32 placed horses

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 7/8 Top 10 LTO
    • 11th or worse: 1/39, 1 place

Horse Age

  • 6/8 aged 3-5 (6/118, 22 places)
    • 2/8 aged 6-9 (2/74, 1 0 places)

Days Since Run

  • 7/8 ran within last 25 days
    • 26+ days: 1/62, 7 places

Horse Weight (exc claim)

  • Nothing significant

Horse Official Rating

  • Not much of note

Season Runs

  • Not too much but…
    • 5/8 had 7-9 runs this season

Wins (Distance)

  • 8/8 had 0-3 wins at the distance

 

Position In Market

  • Not much here.

Odds

  • Not much, some decent priced winners.

 

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Headgear

  • CP: 1/22, 6 places
  • Blinkers: 0/18, 0 places
  • Visor: 0/16, 1 place

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top weights (inc joints): 38… (3/17, 4 places…+53 points)
  • 11th or lower: 5/8… (5/107, 18 places)

 

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 4/8 drawn 1-7
  • 4/8 drawn 20-27
    • Stalls 8-19 (‘the middle’) : 0/92, 8 places

Position in Stalls

  • ‘Quarter 2’ : 0/54, 6 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H-Run (distance)

  • 7/8 had 9 or more runs at distance
    • 8 or fewer: 1/74, 9 place

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career).

  • 7/8 had 1-5 career wins
    • 5/8 had 2 or 3

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 6/8 had 1-3 wins in handicaps

H-Win (Season).

  • 8/8 had 0-1 wins this season
    • 2+ : 0/65, 10 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • 6/8 ran in C2 LTO
    • C3: 1/60, 9 places
    • C4: 1/14, 2 places

 (LR) Track

  • Ascot: 0/8, 0 places
  • Chester: 0/13, 1 place
  • Ripon: 0/20, 4 places

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st  Run Distance

  • 1st start over 7f or further… 6/36, 9 places…+64 SP
    • 5-6f: 2/165, 22 places

***

Trainers (of interest)

  • R Fahey: 2/31, 5 places
  • 1 win: M Easterby/R Price/M Dods/T D Barron/R Charlton/L Lungo
  • D Nicholls: 0/18, 3 places
  • K Ryan: 0/18, 4 places

***

Winning Profile?

  • Top 10 LTO
  • Ran within last 25 days 
  • 0-3 wins at distance
  • 0-1 wins this season 

Of some interest…

  • Drawn 1-7 or 20-27 
  • 9 or more runs at distance 
  • mark up top/joint top weights
  • mark up/note those who made debut over 7f. 

 

***

Ayr Gold Cup 2016

8 renewals

209 runners, 32 places

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 6/8 Top 4 LTO
    • 8/8 Top 10 LTO
    • 11thor worse: 0/41, 4 places

Horse Age

  • 8/8 Aged 3-6
    • 7+ : 0/35, 2 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing too much but
    • 6/8 ran 26-60 days ago… 6/88 runners, 16 places
    • 2/8 ran 6-15 days ago… 2/80 runners…12 places
    • 61+ days: 0/20, 2 places

 

Horse Weight (exc claims)

  • 8/8 carried 9-00 to 9-6
    • 8-13 or less: 0/58, 4 places
    • 9-7+ : 0/31, 4 places

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing much.
    • 96<: 0/16, 1 place
    • 106+ : 0/23, 3 places

 

Season Runs

  • 6/8 had 6-8 runs this season
    • 9+ : 0/23, 4 places

 

Wins (Distance)

  • Not too much but don’t be put off by those yet to win at distance: 4/33, 4 places

Position In Market

  • 8/8 Top 10 in market
    • 11th or lower: 0/118, 9 places

Odds

  • 8/8… 20/1 or shorter SP
    • 22/1+ : 0/105, 7 places

 

***

OTHER STATS

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 8/8 drawn 8-20 (in stark contrast to Silver Cup. Odd- albeit maybe come this race, after three days of racing, the middle is the best ground?)
    • 1-7: 0/55, 6 places
    • 21+ : 0/52, 6 places

 

Draw Segment

  • Quarter 1: 0/50, 6 places
  • Quarter 4: 0/48, 5 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

 

H -Run (90 days)

  • 7/8 had 2/3 runs in previous 90 days
    • 0/1: 0/33, 6 places

H – Run (career)

  • 7/8 had 16 or more career runs
    • 15<: 1/46, 7 places

H-Run (distance)

  • 6/8 had 0-7 runs at distance

H- Run (track)

  • 8/8 had 0-2 track runs
    • 3+: 0/27, 2 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 6/8 placed on last run. (6/78, 21 places)

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

 

H-Win (Career).

  • 0-2 wins : 0/23, 2 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 0: 0/24, 3 places
  • 6+ : 0/32, 2 places

H-Win (Class)

  • 8/8 had 1-2 class wins
    • 0: 0/47, 3 places
    • 3+ : 0/43, 6 places

H-Win (Track)

  • 8/8 … 0 wins at track
    • 1+ : 0/40, 3 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 7/8 had been top 3 on at least one of last three starts

Class Move

  • 8/8 running at same class or up 1
    • Dropping in class: 0/57, 8 places

Distance Move

  • 8/8 running at same distance or dropping
    • Up 0.5f+ ….
    • 0/54, 3 places

 

Highest Class Win

  • 8/8 had won C2 or above
    • Had not: 0/24, 0 places

H-Places (Hncp/Non)

  • 0-2: 0/29, 3 places
  • 14+ : 0/32, 3 places

Jockey Claims

  • 3lbs: 0/21, 1 place
  • 5lbs: 2/24, 6 places
  • 7lbs: 0/8, 0 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non handicap: 1/61, 10 places

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • Class 1: 0/57, 8 places

(LR) Odds

  • 8/8 … 20/1 or shorter LTO
    • 22/1+ : 0/34, 4 places

 

(LR) Track

  • Ripon: 3/31, 6 places
  • 1 win: Donny (1/42) / Goodwood/Chester / Ascot/ Warwick
  • York: 0/22, 4 places
  • Haydock: 0/13, 1 place

 

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st Run Distance

  • 5f: 0/44, 1 place

 

***

 

Jockeys (of interest)

  • Dettori: 2/2

Trainers (of interest)

  • D Nicholls: 2/20, 5 places
  • K A Ryan: 2/27, 3 places
  • 1 win: Cox/Fahey (1/30,5p)/O Meara/A Balding
  • J Goldie: 0/11, 1 place
  • T Barron: 0/10, 2 places

 

The Winning Profile? 

A few to go with…(you may focus on others)

  • Top 10 LTO
  • Age 3-6
  • Carried 9-00 to 9-6
  • 0-2 track runs
  • 1-5 handicap wins
  • 1-2 class wins
  • NOT dropping in class from last run
  • NOT going up in distance from last run

Mark up…

  • ran 26-60 days ago
  • 6-8 runs this season
  • Top 10 in market
  • Drawn 8-20 (not sure what to make of this, pace will be important as always) 
  • 2/3 runs in last 90 days (18th / 19th June is around 90 days go)
  • 3-13 places (inc wins) in handicaps
  • DID NOT make race debut over 5f

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

2 Responses

  1. Blimey Josh – just looked through stats and trends and virtually all of them are in Lexington Abbey’s favour. I was very disappointed with his run in the Portland and that was supposedly the target with the Gold/Silver Cup very much as a ‘might as well give it a go’ option. Mind you the stats for the Portland were against him. Reading between the lines I think the trainer and syndicate manager have had different ideas about how best to campaign him this year. Should he come up trumps you might well have a convert to this stats and trends stuff!!

    1. That does deserve a blimey haha. Just about to start looking myself. The ‘winning profile’ approach has its ups and downs but has found me some decent winners before- the shortlisting can work wonders…Kimberella (a rare tipped winner), NameItWhatYouLike (28s), the 40/1 second in Kerry National have been on shortlists. Also had 8/10 handicap winners at Cheltenham Festival from my ‘shortlists’ – I only tipped one of them. Gulp. But, it can point the way. Same types of profiles do win certain races year after year. Approaching a 27 runner race cold I find hard!

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