+34.5 points so far…
Dr Nick Hardman… appears to have kept up his rather good recent form- that form stretching back some 21 months or so! I believe on my maths, to advised stakes/prices…he is +34.5 points up after the first three days of the St Leger meeting. Returns for various members may differ slightly but i think that is roughly right having just been through the selections over the last three days. 5 winners and a few placed horses so far.
Hopefully those of you who took a chance have had a good few days and even to small stakes that is a rather enjoyable return to date. And, there is still one more day to go.
Donny Notes… my own ‘self help starting points’ highlighted Roger Varian and David Simcock’s superb recent record at the St Leger meeting and it was nice to see them have a good Friday- Varian has three winners at the meeting now. He was 5/17, 12 places +31SP with all runners at the last three meetings before this year. Winners at 13/8, 6/1 and 14/1 can be added to that now. Simcock was 4/15, 6 places in the same period before this year’s meeting. 3/4,3 places +14 points with those sent off 7/1 or shorter. We can add another winner to that list now.
Anyway, I hope some Members Club members may have found a few of those winners using those notes. There will have been a few losers highlighted no doubt as well! Fahey has also contributed to the pot also with a couple of winners.
I return from Croatia late Saturday evening so Sunday’s post will be up on Sunday morning. I would recommend a trip to Zadar if you like sun and sea. A great place to relax if you like a ‘sit down’ holiday!
I don’t have the time/desire to look through the Portland Handicap in any depth given I am in ‘re charge’ mode but given there won’t be any tips i will share my ‘winning profile’ from the stats/trends post that Members have had a chance to get to grips with. This is very much a guide but on the stats that stood out to me a ‘winning profile’ may look like…
- OR 95-101
- 1-6 runs this season
- NOT GB Bred
- Drawn 7 or higher
- Pay close attention to more unexposed types: 1-8 career run, 1-6 runs in handicaps
If you ignore the draw for a moment I believe that leaves (but do go through yourselves) Judicial / Red Pike / Captain Colby and…. (drawn 4)… Mont Kiara.
It would be nice if one of those first three could win. Judicial has been tipped before and won LTO at Chester. He is a fractious beast and it depends on the start for him but he seems in form and is open to progress still. Red Pike- I tipped him LTO at Goodwood so naturally he is going to win soon! 🙂 (not carrying any of my money probably!) How he has been raised after that last run is beyond me and the capper could well have him but he is a decent price and will be front rank. Captain Colby ran a belter from arguably the wrong side LTO and I can see why he is 8/1. He also fits that profile of recent winners being more unexposed etc (final bullet point above)
It will be interesting to see how they get on.
What do you fancy?
3.35 Ling – R Bar Open
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
4.30 Chest: Masamah (12/1<)
5.15 Ling Pretty Bubbles (9/1<)
5.55 Muss: La Contessa (any odds)
7.00 Muss: Gabrial The Terror (any odds)
OTT – 3.50 Bath: Khattar (16/1<)