NEW: Saturday Trends… are up HERE>>>.
NEW REPORT…HERE>>> (if you missed it in emails or posted earlier)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Blimey, a winner on Wednesday at 5/1 and the three I couldn’t decide between at Haydock finished 1st (9/1), UP, and 3rd (28/1). Hopefully someone out there had one or both of them.
Let’s stick withe the shortlist approach again and as it happens I couldn’t decide anyway between this lot I don’t think…
- 2.20 Newc: Jebel Tara 16/1… (UP, 4th, 12/1) A Whillans has been a dab hand with stable newcomers in the last year – 2/8, 4 places..and 3/13,6 places in the last two years- so this one could be an interesting EW proposition. He is 1/4,1 places at Newcastle, albeit those stats not for the AW track. He is 1/5 on the AW surface here all runners to date. The horse… well he stands out on the ‘instant expert’ tab which is a positive, along with a couple of others. He is 5lb below his last winning mark and a few runs ago he came decent enough thirds a couple of times which suggested there may be some wins in the old legs, at a moderate level. His recent form isn’t much to shout home about but then again the ‘trainer change’ angle is a reason to ignore recent form, the idea being that a horse may spark into more life for a change of scenery. This one only ran 11 days ago for his old stable and I used to think a horse may need longer in new surroundings but I have left big priced winners in the past with a similar rest profile so I will deem it irrelevant. This one may be a bit of a stab but Whillans lands the odd decent price within this angle and is one to keep onside moving forward. A micro angle that should pay in time. Oh, and he is also ‘in form’ in the last 30 days.
- 7.00 Kempton: Warm Words 7/2… (UP)Beckett is 9/46, 16 places with his first time out 2 year olds here. He also has one in the 6.00 at a bigger price- he may run well but that looks a hotter race on paper and given Charlie Appleby’s impressive record with second time starters, I thought I would leave that race. The market may guide. This one is related to others who won as 2 year olds and those that have raced once don’t look like they are here to win (subjective, famous last words) Stoute’s looks a danger and Cowell has one also, but he is 0/11,2 places at the track with first time out 2 year olds and, along with going a tad cold, that put me off. The market again may guide. 7/2 looks ok for this one. Trainer is 5/26, 9 places in last 14 days also. Decent enough.
- 7.50 Muss: Windforpower – 15/2, 7/1… (UP, still running, awful) his one looks interesting here… trainer and jockey are 4/7, 5 places in handicaps at the track. The horse stands out on the ‘instant expert’ against all race conditions and is 3/5 at the track. He is a CD winner and came a decent second 9 days ago. All in all he looks rather solid to my eye with the usual luck in running needed here. He is a prominent racer and there is a bit of pace on. Clearly those with less exposed profiles are to be feared.
- 8.30 Kemp: Kristjano – 5/1… (2nd, 9/4) Trainer/jockey are 12/37, 20 places when teaming up here in handicaps. There isn’t much more to add to that other than the fact his speed figure is massive compared to all of these and if that is a true reflection of his ability against this lot, in a race that should be truly run, he should be going close.
That is all for this shortlist. I will just leave it like this again for you to interpret/inspect/scrutinise how you see fit.
J Fanshawe Kempton: 8.00 Lord George WON 5/2>7/4
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.20 – Ustinov- WON 8/1 …(after-timing,having looked at him just before race, but was an eye-catcher 2 runs ago in a sprint test race, pulled LTO,first time hood does the job.)
4.30 – Hit The Jackpot DNQ
5.00 – Hes No Saint UP
3.45 Ascot – Renfrew Street (any odds) 2nd
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
None. There are some big field juicy races to get stuck into,. I could use the going as an excuse (Ascot/Haydock expecting rain, so who knows what it will be) but I have other things I need to be cracking on with (blog/national hunt related) Not long until the 3m+ chases.
TRAINERS IN FORM
An easy enough winner for the most in form horse of the three put up on Wednesday, 11/4?7/4. I hope some of you had a nibble albeit that may have been too short for some. A 13/2 third in the race also and the less said about the McCain flat runner the better. The market told that story…
Nothing catching the eye on Friday. Maybe I will wait for the jumpers.
A couple of possibles for the re jigged ‘one track trainers’ (that post is HERE>>)
2.35 Ascot – Classic Pursuit (16/1<) UP
2.45 Hayd – Moonlit Show (16/1<) WON 12/1