FREE DAILY POST: 31/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Members Club... there is a new post in the Members Area- your monthly research piece. This one looks at 3 year old only handicaps and there are a couple of decent micro angles for Mick Appleby (the odd biggie) and Jim Bolger. Hopefully some of you find that of interest. Next month there is a whole piece on handicap hurdles Oct-April and I think there are some cracking angles in there. So, there is that to look forward to also.

 

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TIPS

None. I have looked at the 5.40 in some depth and can’t work out whether I want to be with Wiffy Chatsby or not. He is the only one I would be interested in and I think 4s is ok. But, he just keeps placing and having watched the videos again of recent runs I am edging towards the conclusion that he just doesn’t put it in when asked at the moment. He stays on again most of the time, or did in his recent chase runs, but this short run in may not play to those ‘strengths’. He gets a hood and cheekpieces this time and the 7lb claimer. He looks a tidy enough jockey and his hunter chase record shows he can ride jumpers. But, Sean Bowen has struggled to get his head in front so it will be tough for him. In the end just a couple of niggles. But, the race is full of horses with questions over certain race conditions and I have stamina doubts/questions about a few. So, I will sit on the fence. One of these days WC may walk all over a race like this. The Hobbs horse has an obvious chance but he needs to prove he stays and truly relishes rattling fast ground. Has had 45 days off also so I wouldn’t take 11/4, albeit he looks the most solid. Pure Poteen is the other of interest. He can be a dodgy jumper but has some decent placed form from the winter game. He is usually held up which I don’t especially like in general, esp with one who can clout a fence if having to close. But, he may run a good race. I will just watch with interest and see if I have read it right or not.  Given how it is going I will have backed a 7/2 shot recently who ran no sort of race and just talked myself out of a 4/1 shot here who will bolt up. We shall see.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

5.50 Carlisle

Rita’s Girl – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)

The trainer/jockey combo stats here are pretty decent and improve to 4/6,5 places in non handicaps for the few times they have teamed up. This one has two things going for it that make her a bet really- she steps up in distance. She looked to be out-paced at times the last day so in theory that should suit and maybe this stiff test will be the making of her. Secondly she has the highest speed rating in the race and it is quite a bit bigger than the fav. These geegeez/Dr Peter May ratings have been a decent guide in 2yo races from memory. The trainer’s horses are going OK also. They are not out of form while maybe not being red hot. (5/31,9 places last 14 days). He is also 8/27,12 places with all runners here in last year.. It may well be asking too much to get these two shorter priced horses beaten but at the prices I think there is enough there. She is ‘doing something different’ (distance/track) from recent runs and will be getting more experienced each time.

 

6.10 Newton Abbot

Kovera – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) NR

This one seems to tick all of the boxes you want to be ticked for a handicap debutant really: trainer does well here with this type, trainer is in form,horse steps up in distance, and the race looks mediocre. This is a very poor race and this one wont have to be much to take this you wouldn’t think. He is in the ‘could be anything’ category and is just about worth chancing at 6s for me. Jonjo is also 15/46,19 places with his handicap hurdlers here in the last 5 years and Aidan Coleman rides the track pretty well also. I can’t really find any faults on paper. Backing handicap debutants that tick all of these boxes in handicap hurdles should pay over time- we will find out in the coming months. Of course the horse may just be moderate, it is just too hard to tell. You can see from his prices in his races to date that he was only making up the numbers. The market may well guide for this one. If he is just moderate I have no idea what else will win as it is just a moderate race where nothing would ever totally surprise.

Maybe Pembridge will follow up after his shock win and may therefore look like the ‘solid/obvious’ option but it is hard to gauge how strong that race was. He may build on it though. Double Court is consistent at a modest level but is struggling to get the head in front.

 

That will do for me from that list below but no doubt I have left something lurking. The Dalgleish runner in the 6.20 is interesting and I think I would want to see some market support after the 90 day break I think. She has the second highest speed figure in the race and is stepping up in trip by 2 furlongs on handicap debut here. Trainer and jockey are not that prolific together though, 2/24 in handicaps, although 0/1,1 place at the track. His record in these types of races and with horses returning after 60+ days is also ok. You are guessing over plenty of them though and many in here could be about to leave old form behind. A tricky one. I have just dodged it but these two above perform, and there is some signs of life in the market, I may have a nibble.

I personally wasn’t keen to back any of the rest but we shall see how they get on.

 

2 year old- first start

  • Cowell: 5/17,8 p in last year: 4.10 Ling – The Night Before (0/3,0p at track)
  • J Portman: 2/11,2 p in last year: 4.40 Ling – Implausible (also 1/4,2p at the course with such runners)
  • Evans/Bath: 2/7,2p with 1st time out 2 year olds (5 years): 2.00 Trump’s Magic 

 

Trainer Change

  • Pipe…4/13,7 places in last year… 1.50 South: Mr Burgess (1/1 at track with such runners) NR

 

First Time Handicap (5 years)

  • Jonjo O’Neill/Newton Abbot: 2/4,2 p… 6.10  Kovera
  • Dalgleish/Carlisle: 4/11,4 p… 6.20 Neigh Kid
  • Haggas/Lingfield: 5/13, 9 places… 3.10 In The City (trainer jockey also 11/37,23 places all runners)

 

Trainer/jockey combos (all races) (last 5 years max)

  • Burke/Costello/Carlisle: 4/9, 6 places… 5.50 Rita’s Girl
  • Williams/Murphy/Lingfield: 4/11, 5 places… 4.10 Lady Cleo
  • Millman/Wood/Bath: 2/7, 4 places… 5.00 Azure Amour
  • Flint/Muscutt/Bath: 4/15, 7 places… 4.30 Prim And Proper

 

Other (stats for wto years)

  • A Wintle/last time out winners: 4/9, 4 places… 6.10 Newton Abbot… Pembridge
  • Flint/last time out winners: 7/22, 10 places… 4.30 Bath… Prim And Proper

 

I may just leave this lot like this for tomorrow but it will depend on how much time I have in the morning. Hopefully there is a winner or two in there and hopefully some of you pick out the right ones. That little lot was compiled in about 15 minutes using the reports within Geegeez Gold. (it is the next bit that takes up the time!) You can take a trial of that for 30 days for £1 (much more than just these reports) using the banner below…

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

6.20 Carl- Rubies N Pearls

6.50 Carl – Bahamian Bird / Sunnua

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Carlisle (15/2<)

6.50 – Glengarry

7.20 – Crazy Tornado / Tectonic

7.50 – Ryan The Giant

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

None.

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That will be all for today.

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

12 Comments

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  • Two for me tomorrow. Firstly I like Tom Wade in the 14:50 at Southwell. His previous race has thrown up winner after winner with the 2nd,3rd, 4th and 6th all winning and going 4/12, 8 places cumulatively since (selection was 5th). Now gets the services of Richard Johnson which is very eye-catching. He also gets a tongue tie for the first time for his trainer. The last time it was first applied he won so hopefully it will have a simular effect (2/6, 3 places overall in hurdles with a TT). Has also won at the track before. The only question is trainer form given he doesnt have many runners.

    Secondly I want to have a go on Twentysvnthalncers in the 16:45 at Carlisle. Went close in a class 5 LTO and is effectively 4lbs lower than his last winning mark which happened to be over course and distance in a higher class so this class 6 apprentice race should be easier. McNamara is clearly one of the better jockeys in the race. He is also 2/3 on the flat ridding for Midgley.

    nickmazur 10 months ago Reply


    • Good luck Nick- you deserve one/both of those to go in based on that more than solid reasoning. You may be about to hit a run now after Pipers Note.

      Josh 10 months ago Reply


    • great call

      aallen 10 months ago Reply


      • Thanks. One out of 2 isn’t bad and missed out on the place double by a nose. Was a little concerned about the rain but than I noticed the form of that Class 4 he placed with. Would have felt even more confident if I spotted that last night.

        Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


        • Super,nice little drift as well? Was 5swhen I had a look this morning. Sometimes the market is clueless.

          Josh 10 months ago Reply


          • Yeah I think the market was latching on to the fact his two wins were on good/firm but that good/soft 3rd he was ahead of Excessable which has won a class4 and just behind Midnight Mailbu who has won 2 C4’s on the bounce.

            Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


    • Great shout Nick.. I just got in…I took 10s last night at betfair.
      Cheers mate.

      Tony Mc. 10 months ago Reply


  • Ritas Girl was the one i picked out from the list last night Josh,all the stats point to a value bet,espcially choosing Costello who is 3/6 with 2yo at the course this year.I do like pure poteen too but at 6 maybe just watch,think maybe whiffy chatsby has been to the well a bit often,gone over 3 years without winning

    gerry 10 months ago Reply


  • Any thoughts on Best Boy Barney 11/2 1.50 Southwell?

    First time visor and Scholfield booked

    aallen 10 months ago Reply


    • Personally the bookies have had enough of my BBB money so unless he is the only front runner in the field which I don’t think is the case today I am leaving him alone. No doubt he will now go in but you have to draw the line at some point.

      Nick Mazur 10 months ago Reply


      • Yep I looked at him/the race but there are 3/4 front runners in here so I left him. He is looking a bit regressive now and is always going to have problem of facing younger legs now. Maybe they will find a little race for him at some point but doubt I will be on. (famous last words) visor may spark him up. Jockey booking isn’t as significant for me as other jock had great record on him.

        Josh 10 months ago Reply


  • A couple of races of interest for me this evening

    7.20 Carlisle – Tectonic 17.5 & Cara’s Request 55.0

    Both EW for these…..conditions look good for both & draw and just look too big so hopefully a place at least

    7.50 Carlisle – Sebastians Wish 10.0

    Mainly for the hot Richard Whitaker as pointed out by Nick yesterday 4 winners from 5 last 2 days & George Chaloner takes the ride won on both his yesterday….Shown little in 5 runs at double figure odds but 1 of only 3 3yr olds in the race and at the price had another EW nibble.

    Steve Wiseman 10 months ago Reply


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