FREE DAILY POST: 31/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Members Club... there is a new post in the Members Area- your monthly research piece. This one looks at 3 year old only handicaps and there are a couple of decent micro angles for Mick Appleby (the odd biggie) and Jim Bolger. Hopefully some of you find that of interest. Next month there is a whole piece on handicap hurdles Oct-April and I think there are some cracking angles in there. So, there is that to look forward to also.

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TIPS

None. I have looked at the 5.40 in some depth and can’t work out whether I want to be with Wiffy Chatsby or not. He is the only one I would be interested in and I think 4s is ok. But, he just keeps placing and having watched the videos again of recent runs I am edging towards the conclusion that he just doesn’t put it in when asked at the moment. He stays on again most of the time, or did in his recent chase runs, but this short run in may not play to those ‘strengths’. He gets a hood and cheekpieces this time and the 7lb claimer. He looks a tidy enough jockey and his hunter chase record shows he can ride jumpers. But, Sean Bowen has struggled to get his head in front so it will be tough for him. In the end just a couple of niggles. But, the race is full of horses with questions over certain race conditions and I have stamina doubts/questions about a few. So, I will sit on the fence. One of these days WC may walk all over a race like this. The Hobbs horse has an obvious chance but he needs to prove he stays and truly relishes rattling fast ground. Has had 45 days off also so I wouldn’t take 11/4, albeit he looks the most solid. Pure Poteen is the other of interest. He can be a dodgy jumper but has some decent placed form from the winter game. He is usually held up which I don’t especially like in general, esp with one who can clout a fence if having to close. But, he may run a good race. I will just watch with interest and see if I have read it right or not.  Given how it is going I will have backed a 7/2 shot recently who ran no sort of race and just talked myself out of a 4/1 shot here who will bolt up. We shall see.

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

5.50 Carlisle

Rita’s Girl – 1 point win – 10/1 (general)

The trainer/jockey combo stats here are pretty decent and improve to 4/6,5 places in non handicaps for the few times they have teamed up. This one has two things going for it that make her a bet really- she steps up in distance. She looked to be out-paced at times the last day so in theory that should suit and maybe this stiff test will be the making of her. Secondly she has the highest speed rating in the race and it is quite a bit bigger than the fav. These geegeez/Dr Peter May ratings have been a decent guide in 2yo races from memory. The trainer’s horses are going OK also. They are not out of form while maybe not being red hot. (5/31,9 places last 14 days). He is also 8/27,12 places with all runners here in last year.. It may well be asking too much to get these two shorter priced horses beaten but at the prices I think there is enough there. She is ‘doing something different’ (distance/track) from recent runs and will be getting more experienced each time.

6.10 Newton Abbot

Kovera – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) NR

This one seems to tick all of the boxes you want to be ticked for a handicap debutant really: trainer does well here with this type, trainer is in form,horse steps up in distance, and the race looks mediocre. This is a very poor race and this one wont have to be much to take this you wouldn’t think. He is in the ‘could be anything’ category and is just about worth chancing at 6s for me. Jonjo is also 15/46,19 places with his handicap hurdlers here in the last 5 years and Aidan Coleman rides the track pretty well also. I can’t really find any faults on paper. Backing handicap debutants that tick all of these boxes in handicap hurdles should pay over time- we will find out in the coming months. Of course the horse may just be moderate, it is just too hard to tell. You can see from his prices in his races to date that he was only making up the numbers. The market may well guide for this one. If he is just moderate I have no idea what else will win as it is just a moderate race where nothing would ever totally surprise.

Maybe Pembridge will follow up after his shock win and may therefore look like the ‘solid/obvious’ option but it is hard to gauge how strong that race was. He may build on it though. Double Court is consistent at a modest level but is struggling to get the head in front.

That will do for me from that list below but no doubt I have left something lurking. The Dalgleish runner in the 6.20 is interesting and I think I would want to see some market support after the 90 day break I think. She has the second highest speed figure in the race and is stepping up in trip by 2 furlongs on handicap debut here. Trainer and jockey are not that prolific together though, 2/24 in handicaps, although 0/1,1 place at the track. His record in these types of races and with horses returning after 60+ days is also ok. You are guessing over plenty of them though and many in here could be about to leave old form behind. A tricky one. I have just dodged it but these two above perform, and there is some signs of life in the market, I may have a nibble.

I personally wasn’t keen to back any of the rest but we shall see how they get on.

2 year old- first start

• Cowell: 5/17,8 p in last year: 4.10 Ling – The Night Before (0/3,0p at track)
• J Portman: 2/11,2 p in last year: 4.40 Ling – Implausible (also 1/4,2p at the course with such runners)
• Evans/Bath: 2/7,2p with 1st time out 2 year olds (5 years): 2.00 Trump’s Magic 

Trainer Change

• Pipe…4/13,7 places in last year… 1.50 South: Mr Burgess (1/1 at track with such runners) NR

First Time Handicap (5 years)

• Jonjo O’Neill/Newton Abbot: 2/4,2 p… 6.10  Kovera
• Dalgleish/Carlisle: 4/11,4 p… 6.20 Neigh Kid
• Haggas/Lingfield: 5/13, 9 places… 3.10 In The City (trainer jockey also 11/37,23 places all runners)

Trainer/jockey combos (all races) (last 5 years max)

• Burke/Costello/Carlisle: 4/9, 6 places… 5.50 Rita’s Girl
• Williams/Murphy/Lingfield: 4/11, 5 places… 4.10 Lady Cleo
• Millman/Wood/Bath: 2/7, 4 places… 5.00 Azure Amour
• Flint/Muscutt/Bath: 4/15, 7 places… 4.30 Prim And Proper

Other (stats for wto years)

• A Wintle/last time out winners: 4/9, 4 places… 6.10 Newton Abbot… Pembridge
• Flint/last time out winners: 7/22, 10 places… 4.30 Bath… Prim And Proper

I may just leave this lot like this for tomorrow but it will depend on how much time I have in the morning. Hopefully there is a winner or two in there and hopefully some of you pick out the right ones. That little lot was compiled in about 15 minutes using the reports within Geegeez Gold. (it is the next bit that takes up the time!) You can take a trial of that for 30 days for £1 (much more than just these reports) using the banner below…

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

6.20 Carl- Rubies N Pearls

6.50 Carl – Bahamian Bird / Sunnua

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Carlisle (15/2<)

6.50 – Glengarry

7.20 – Crazy Tornado / Tectonic

7.50 – Ryan The Giant

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

None.

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That will be all for today.