My thanks to Karl and Ali for posting up various system qualifiers. No winners but the day nothing is posted you know what would happen. Well done to Martin on Saturday who fancied Alpha Delphini at 16s. He went off at 13/2 indicating what a silly price that turned out to be. He was a winner LTO in the testing zone, and was fancied in his race before that- nice to see ‘tipped’ horses progress through the ranks and he continued Bryan Smart’s decent record in that race. Well done if you were on. Chris R deserves a mention for putting up 5/1 winner Mountain Tunes from an old micro angle shared on these pages I believe.
Top stuff all round, as always… Oh and Steve who shared some interesting sire stattage for Yarmouth on Sunday and I believe that threw up a handful of decent priced winners also. That sire/distance/going in current year looks like something to work with moving forward.
So, having had a quiet Saturday/Sunday it’s my turn to try and provide something to get stuck into…
Pair of Jacks – 1 point win – 7/2 (general)
This is as short as I like to go really in my punting but 7/2 looks a value price to me- He could easily be 5/2 – 2/1 in this field in my opinion. He is the only upwardly mobile horse in this race who is proven in all of the conditions (bar class,but this is never a strong C2 and he is top rated) and who is open to further improvement. To my eye he looked to have a bit up his sleeve when winning here the last day – delivered to perfection by Hughes (who may have been cursing for hitting the front too soon at Hexham the time before that) and I don’t think he had the kitchen sink thrown at him. He gets exactly the same race conditions here and re-opposes against four of the horses he beat that day. I just can’t see a chink in his armour and wouldn’t want to be taking him on. Having looked at the rest I am more than happy to be with him. He should get some pace to aim at also with a couple of front runners in here and a couple of pace pushers. This should be truly run. He was held up the last day and I was impressed by how smoothly he came into it and the fact that he went wide for a lot of the way also. I wouldn’t mind it if Hughes sits him a bit closer. The only niggle is whether he get’s round/times it right. He jumped really well on the whole the last day but when you are asking a horse to go quicker and close on those in front anything can happen. He has a long run in to use his stamina here and I can’t think 3lb will stop him. You would think this has been the target since the last run. He ticks every box and I do need to improve my judgement of 7/2 shots like this. He looks solid to me.
Of the rest? Well if Pair of Jacks comes to grief then Alderbrook Lad- who chased him home the last day- could capitalise. He clearly likes it here and will be right up in the van. The Pipe horse is interesting and if money comes I may well be running for cover. He is unexposed but has some stamina questions/jumping questions. He looks an interesting purchase and they will win races with him. But, what with the long break and those questions I was happy to leave. 7s is ok, but it isn’t 16s or something. Russian Regeant isn’t getting any younger and I can’t see a repeat of recent runs being enough IF the selection runs his race. If you like him then you have to give a chance to Presented but he was poor the last day and I don’t think this track really suits. He is just a bit slow and wont be able to dictate here. I can’t see why he should over-turn recent form with the selection. Silver man is interesting but has some questions now and may not want this rain softened ground. If there were no other pace pushers in here I would have been more tempted. He will be up there from the off and may try and make all. If he gets an easy time he may not be far away. I have no idea why they ran him over hurdles LTO unless this has been a plan. Of the bigger priced ones he interests me most albeit the handicapper may have him also.
Dreamsoftheatre could take this but is a character and who knows what frame of mind he is in today. This looks a deeper renewal than the one he won last year. He would have a chance but his recent win came in first time headgear, which didn’t seem to work again after that. Questions to answer now, and again one who doesn’t like it that soft. It is just about ok I think, but far from ideal. Danimix would have a chance on some old form but seems to have lost his way. He isn’t getting any younger and I can see why some would take a chance at 14s but not for me. He has had another lengthy break which suggests he has been hard to train/something went wrong last time. I would want to see a bit more before backing him but a repeat of that Chepstow run puts him in the mix. Munsaab has some questions after that last run and this is a much deeper race than the one he won on his return. He probably bounced the last day and may run better here- but even at his best I have doubts whether he would be good enough if a couple of these run their race. Mias Anthem is another character who likes to take the odd fence with him. No excuses the last day from what I can see. 25s may be a bit harsh but in any case the handicapper may have him. Unpredictable.
So,I think 7/2 is quite decent in here. I don’t want to go mad given how he is ridden and the fact he will need some more luck than if he ran up there. But, granted that luck, I can’t see him being far away here. It would be good if he progressed again and won a shade more cosily than the last day.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total… +5.5 points)
Just Isla – 1 point win – 9/1 (as below)
- 1.30 Chepstow- Just Isla – 9/1… I think there is enough here at the price to make this one a bet. Trainer/jockey are 4/6,4 places here when teaming up and this one stands out on the instant expert ‘win’tab as being suited to all race conditions. She is now 5lb below her last winning mark, is one of a few with proven form in good to soft/soft (and also decent ground, a versatile type) is proven over the distance and has course form. Many in here have questions against certain race conditions. This is also her third start for the trainer who is also 6/21, 9 places with all runners here in the last year. He will know her course form so I do find it of some interest that he now sends her here. She is usually held up in mid division or further back if starting slowly and having run well on stable debut at Brighton I don’t think the steady pace will have suited the last day. This is a much bigger field and I think there is a bit more pace on. The draw is a slight concern in the sense that i think more of the pace could be high but at the price I am happy to take that chance. All of her wins to date have come in the July-Sept period so that is also another tick. The trainer’s horses could also be going better but hard to say they are out of form, 1/11, 2 places last 30 days, 0/3,0 places last 14 days. No trainer in here is ‘in form’ as such. Anyway, all in all, 9s looks more than decent here. EW may be the wiser choice given the field size and amount of luck that may be needed but this is a ‘1 point’ level stakes section and I don’t like backing 1/2 points EW on 9/1 shots.
- 1.00 Chepstow – Akkadian Empire – 16/1 – Channon is 2/8, 4 places with his first time out 2 year olds. And, that is it! I am unsure if Eagan has ridden for Channon at all in recent history. Of more concern is the opposition and I think it is asking a lot for the three once raced ones ahead of him to all fluff their lines here, including the 8/13 shot. But, some of you may want to tuck this stat away for the inevitable time that I miss his next 2yo winner here! 🙂
- 4.35 Newc – Connermera Queen – 22/1 20/1… firstly…Flinty Fell- the agonising 2nd place finisher from Saturday returns here. I still can’t believe she didn’t win that. Never mind. Maybe she hit the front too soon and idled a bit or just ran out of gas after the break. They drop in trip slightly here, she is well drawn for how this track has been riding and there is some pace to sit behind. 9/4, 11/4 generally but that is a bit too short for me and when loading up on these types that you have recently backed it can all go wrong. Anyway… back to CQ…trainer/jockey are 4/13,5 places at the track and I think that includes when it was turf also. And, that is it really. The horse won a maiden two starts ago that has produced 6 subsequent winning displays so that looks a half decent race at least. She flopped NTO at a big price and has subsequently had a break. I am put off by the fact that the trainer is 0/8,0 places with horses having 2nd start in a handicap and she is also only 2/43,5 places with those returning 60+ days off. But, she has had winners at least. And this one is 22s. The race is also packed full of 3 year olds and other in form horses/unexposed types. The trainer’s horses could be in better form but a couple have placed in the last two weeks.
I won’t be tipping the other two above. It will be interesting to see how they go!
TTP: MAIN SYSTEM BETS
3.20 – Indy/Newstead Abbey / Tres Coronas
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
None. I had a look at th 3.15 Epsom but it looks a tricky race. Humidor would have a chance and may have the pace to track, but 7/2, 4/1 is short I think for one so tricky. He needs a lot to go right including before he enters the stalls. He wont be far away. Pace was interesting- I wondered if King Crimson may try and make all- but I don’t know if he is good enough to stay there. He looks a C4 animal having failed five times in C3- only second run C2. He may really relish this track. An interesting one as he is speedy and could string these out. But, then again, El Astronaute can get on with it and from his draw, back under SDS, you would think he may also be up there. These two may dominate all the way but his price wasn’t enough to tempt me either. An interesting little contest but nothing really jumped out at me. Everything has some sort of question (s) to answer in here.
That will be all for today. Good Luck.