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Today, at various points, I have been listening to the latest Final Furlong Podcast. I have’t listened to that many but their latest one is a belter for me. A wide ranging discussion on betting that I found fascinating. You can catch it on AtTheRaces HERE>>>
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total… +6.5 points)
7.00 Newcastle- Flinty Fell – 1 point win – 7/1…
This one looks solid enough on the stats as below and the race has a fairly open feel about it. The market may well guide over time but in a race where a few have questions now this one does have a different profile. The trainer’s have been going ok- I would like a bit better form for confidence but there are enough positives on the stats at least. It may be she wants further but I think 7s allows a stab.
I will leave the rest. Three seconds yesterday but the decision making was just about correct in deciding to dodge them all. Only just on a couple of occasions. Warm Love- well the ground is an unknown and could be hard work for your first start- two above him at much shorter odds and the market suggests they could be slogging it out. Harry Beau- is weak in the market at the moment and has gone out to 10s- that doesn’t fill me with confidence and I want a bit more to go in with him. Toola Boola just a tad on the short side for me personally. We shall see how they all go.
- 2.20 Thirsk: Warm Love 6/1 – O’Meara is 5/24,9 places with first time out 2 year olds in the last year, 1/5, 2 places at this track in last 5 years. And, that is all we have to go on. Breeding looks ok? And arguably while everything else has experience in here many look fairly modest, a few running for a nursery mark maybe. Fav is there to be shot at I think. Market may well guide. Wouldn’t be shocked if this one gets piled into really. Trainer isn’t in the best of form which is a bit off-putting. 6s feeling fair at the moment. Normally I would want something else to go on,esp at around this price- like red hot trainer form. Unsure if we are in ‘guessing game’ territory in terms of the ground again.
- 2.10 Ffos Las – Harry Beau 8/1 – 13/2 (only 2 priced up) – Hannon is 2/3,2 places with his first time out 2 year olds here- small numbers but they look interesting. He is 5/22,6 places with all runners here. This is his only runner on the day here. Maybe significant, maybe not. Market may well guide. Again not much else to go on which makes me uncomfortable. Bar the fav I am not sure if too many of the others are here to run well, EW bet to nothing maybe?
- 7.00 Newcastle- Flinty Fell 6/1 (one bookie at moment) Looks good on the stats… trainer 9/35,18p with newcomers from other yards last year,1/6 2 places at the track. 10/52,14 places with 1st time handicap runners last two years, 31/150,50 places those returning after break of 60 days+. Fitness can be taken on trust- if he wants him fit, he will be. 3/15,4 places in last year at track. With Gibbons riding in handicaps – 5/22,9 places. His horses are going ok. Race lacks pace a bit- Burke horse could get another easy lead. A few 3 year olds in here, doesn’t look a great race. But, maybe stats, collectively, are enough at that price…
- 6.00 Newcastle – Toola Boola – 5/1 – O Keefe is 3/10,4 places with handicap debutants in last year. (in that code,this one has run in handicaps over jumps)He is 2/6,3 places with Lee at Newcastle (none on AW as yet) He is 13/76,33 places in all handicaps with Lee up top, 6/21,12 places in C5 handicaps. Trainer is also ‘in form’ the only one in the race- 1/7,4 places last two weeks. He is 0/11,3 places on the AW here so far. There is plenty of stamina in the blood so the step back up should suit. Looks interesting enough albeit not sure if 5s is overly generous. Only one bookie priced up so far. The others look to have a few questions.
Do as you please with that information! Bar the stats, the rest of the comments are my own subjective views that you may disagree with etc.
Fahey (any odds)
4.05 Thirsk: El Viento UP / Khelman UP
4.50 Newc: Springwood WON 7/1
5.20 Ham: Gabridan UP
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.05 Thirsk- Magic City (28/1<) DNQ
4.55 Newm- Kiltara (12/1<) UP
5.05 FFos Las – Air of York DNQ / Sir Billy Wright UP (both 16/1< guide)
5.15 Thirsk- Space War (28/1<) UP
6.25 Ham- Amy Blair (any odds) Oh my. WON 50/1 SP
6.55 Ham – Forever A Lady (any odds)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Handsome Dude- 1.5 points win – 16/1 (BF/PP/Betf) 14/1 | 12/1 (general) UP
Intense Style – 1.5 points win– 12/1 (Betfred/BV/PP/others) 11/1| 10/1 (general) UP
Fendale – 1 point win – 7/1 | 13/2 (general,7s in a few places) NR (assume ground related- so,maybe 1 point saved- trainer clearly has doubts)
(UPDATE: can’t tip him now really but I may reinvest half point in Ocean Sheridan to replace my Fendale wager- suspect Mulrennan may well now switch also? Did think he may want further/strongly run 6f and/or stiff 6f but he may not be far away at 9s. Also means not just left with two drawn in same place. We shall see) WON
Well this is a cracker and while the head is a bit sore from looking at it I think these three should give us a good run for our money. My staking needs work in these races, and probably in general, but I wanted these three onside and I didn’t want to bet more than 4 points in this race. Fendale also has a ground question – an unknown- hence the smaller staking than the other two…
Handsome Dude- well 16s seems rather big for this one. There were clear signs last time, in a decent race, that he was coming to himself and that run can be marked up. He came under pressure fairly early but stuck to his task while being carried into the centre of the course- not where you want to be. If he had stayed in a straight line he would have been closer. He has decent form on Soft and ties in with Intense Style on that Doncaster run a few starts ago. He is 5lb lower than that run. He also has some decent course form to his name- a decent second earlier in the season in a big field class 3 race. Gibbons is on and there is plenty to like for me at the price. This is only his 19th start and this 4 year old may have more to come at some point also as a sprinter. I will get onto pace in a moment which is also a tick I think but the draw is fine also. A lot of winners come from the middle stalls over this straight track and it may be the place to be. High against the rail doesn’t do as well as you may think but it also seems to change depending on the ground. I wouldn’t be put off by any horse on draw alone here today.
Intense Style- well he just hasn’t done much wrong and while I think there may be others better treated, again as a 4 year old sprinter he may have a bit more to come at some point. These are his conditions and I think you can ignore the last run based on the going. He relishes soft ground. The two runs before that last one, in better races than this, give plenty of hope. He was close to Hoof It on both those occasions which is decent enough form. He usually finds plenty for pressure on this ground and a repeat of those two runs should put him right there in this field. He was also on my stats longlist- trainer jockey are 2/9,3 places here in handicaps which is another positive. He should run his race from up the middle also. These two to dominate at the death, maybe…
Fendale- well I think 7s is decent enough here given his form. I backed him at Ponte earlier in the season where he was a bit poor but he was much better LTO and maybe that was a sign he is about to strike. He ‘won’ his side at Ripon on a day where both the sprints were dominated by the nearside. In part that was due to pace but it suggests the ground may have been slightly quicker also. He travelled well on the far side that day and found plenty for pressure. This is only his 14th career start and is another 4 year old who should show more at some point. The ground is the question – it is an unknown really. You can’t tell from his few runs on it whether he handles it or not really. He stayed on at Donny in the race those two above contested. He stayed on from the back, rather than going backwards, to suggest it may be ok. I simply don’t know. His sire’s offspring are better on firm but he has had plenty of soft ground winners. 7s was worth a chance given how he ran LTO for me.
PACE…is interesting… with Highland Acclaim now out there isn’t really any and I wouldn’t want to be on anything that likes to come from behind here. The three above all race mid division at worst- usually- but importantly have all raced prominently at some stage or indeed led in the odd race. If the jockeys have their brains switched on there should be no excuse. They should all be up there in the van from the off for me. It may transpire there is a ground bias but I can’t predict it at this moment in time. Maybe up the rail will be a golden highway today but that is the chance you take.
Of the rest…
Well, clearly my pins may not have landed on the winner here. Eccleston is rather short at 4s in a race like this. He can be held up which may spell trouble but Tudhope will be aware of the pace problem and I suspect will get him up there. Those above have better recent form in better races for me and his price is enough. He did win this race last year off the same mark so clearly I won’t fall of my seat if he wins. The trainer is quiet again at the moment and that last run was a bit odd. Escalating looks interesting and conditions look ideal for him He needs to progress again and is entitled to. Again on paper the selections have better form but he is entitled to show more at some point, maybe today. The trainer’s horses have done well here in the last year. Lucky Beggar is interesting but is a tricky bugger to win with . His new trainer will no doubt get a win out of him but two stats put me off. In the last two years DC is 0/14,1 place with stable newcomers and 0/49,5 places with those returning after 60+ days. Ocean Sheridan is interesting but the jockey booking was odd (Beaseley must have had choice) and he is only running ok. A horse without a trip maybe. Again, the others have better form/profiles on paper for me in this race. He may not be far away. Magical Effect is also open to improvement but needs to after that maiden win. This big field will be a new experience and it is a hot race. He could go close but I prefer a battle hardened profile for these tests really.
The rest look badly out or form and/or need a lot to go right, plus a few have ging questions If one of them wins I wasn’t destined to be a winner today. There are a few hold up types that usually need a strong pace to be seen to their best – My Name Is Rio and Mushariff chief among them. I don’t think they will get that here but I could be wrong.
So, we shall see. These three should give us a run for our money in theory and it would be nice if one of them went in, with obvious preference for the bigger priced ones.
Good Luck, we will need plenty.
TRAINERS IN FORM
None. Plenty going on today without anymore I think.