FREE DAILY POST: 20/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete. A fairly quiet day but a Stats/Angles tip at Perth…

 

It looks like being a quiet Saturday in these parts. There are no big handicap sprints to get stuck into with trends/stats etc and my Ebor stats/trends don’t help too much I don’t think! – I would only attack that race if I could get some kind of confident shortlist to help, but I think I will keep my money in my pocket. Times suggest the ground is still quick at York and they are not now forecast too much rain so in theory it shouldn’t be in the soft side, but who knows. The likes of Chester/Sandown/Perth could get more rain and their ground could change. Too much guessing again the evening before.

 

NEW!: There is a new post on the home page and in the Free Reports/Systems bit. It is the draft ‘Trainer Track Profile’ for Warwick (their first jumps meeting is next month, hooray!) and your thoughts are welcome. I plan to be more active using this report and will be compiling a ‘daily notes’ post, in the Members Area highlighting potential bets from the report etc. So, have a read of that and let me know what you think.

I will also start looking at any early jumps season pointers and trainers who do well in the Sept/Oct/Nov period- Nigel Twiston Davies is the obvious place to start but whether he is over-bet now I am not sure. Worth a closer look. So, plenty to look forward to, with any luck.

***

Onto Saturday…

 

TIPS

None. 5.50 Perth looks a bit trappy and you would expect one of the top 3 to take this – I am not sure which one and given their profiles/form etc 7/2 is only fair for each one. Presented could lead all the way but I would have been more convinced if it was softer (apparently it is still ‘good’ but who knows) mainly to slow the others down- he is a slogger and if testing would go closer. Johnson’s strength may make the different on his mount who is a reluctant racehorse who hates putting his head in front. He will look like the winner at one point. George has sent KK up here and we know he is well handicapped and this race doesn’t have much depth. He wants decent ground so if it is worse than good he could be in trouble. If i had to bet it would be on Presented to lead all the way again but the odds are skinny enough for me I think.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

3.30 Perth

Misfits – 1 point win – 8/1 | 7/1 (general) UP (4th)*

*strange run – he was keen for most of the race and is clearly a current trait, as opposed to just being ‘fresh’ LTO after a break. The market didn’t scream confidence and he looks like he still has a fair bit to learn, odd head carriage at times. He came into it up the straight and looked like he may play a part before fading slightly/failing to pick up, on the run in. His good jumps were rather decent – a long term chasing prospect no doubt. Wyfield Rose went from 11/2 or so to 17/2 and just about clung on, making all.

The rain was pelting down during that race. Presented has been weak in the market but conditions coming right for him maybe,if it turns into more of a stamina test. 

Lucinda Russell is 4/11 with handicap debutants at Perth in the last 5 years which makes this one of some interest. She also has a decent enough record in handicap novice hurdles here which adds to the confidence. I like to see horses doing something different when making handicap debut and this one steps up in trip by around half a mile. He is a point winner and was outpaced at times over 20f so in theory this should unlock more. He returned last time after a break and took a keen hold, weakening a couple of furlongs out. He could be spot on for this run and Russell has had a welcome winner in the last two weeks and maybe a revival could be on the horizon after a quiet period. He looks versatile ground wise also. This is a fairly weak race where Wyfield Rose may try and make all again and I wouldn’t dismiss him. But, this one is doing something different and has an interesting profile. All in all looks worth a stab at 8s for me. Hopefully he settles and has a bit in hand come the finish. The market may well guide and we may know our fate before the tapes go up!

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

4.25 Chest: Powerallied UP

Ivory (16/1<)

4.15 Sand: Stake Acclaim NR

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

Chester (12/1<)

3.15- Gabrial The Hero DNQ

3.50 – Gabrials Kaka  DNQ/ Right Touch 2nd

5.00 – Gabrials Star 3rd

York (9/1<)

1.45: Chancery DNQ

4.00: Tawdeea DNQ

5.05: Lathom UP

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None today.

I do need to update my notes but that will be early next week, times appears to have evaporated this week.

***

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None today.

 

 

***

 

 

***

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Josh
    I live 30 mins from Perth, it has been raining since mid afternoon friday and set to continue overnight if it helps with your assessment.

    Mike

    1. Ah cheers Mike- very helpful- safe I can call it on the soft side! Just then a question of non-runners etc. I will have a glance in the morning- pace wise Presented could get an uncontested lead but doubt he will be much of a price, as may be the case for a few. But, certainly doesn’t look like it will be Good anyway!

  2. Josh
    Had a closer look at Perth runners.
    T George has sent one with Brennan in a Hcp Ch, Brennan has only one other ride. 4/1
    P Nicholls has one only Moabit with STD his only ride onboard 3/1
    I will have a wee double on those.

    Mike

    1. Good luck Mike- if the ground is genuinely good (which it is apparently) the George chaser has a chance. An interesting race but at the odds I will sit it out.

  3. Found 4 items of interest.
    J Gordon/ J Berry Combo Hope is High 6.05 Bath…..3/1
    E Lynam 5f/6f within 45 days Future Icon 4.30 Curr..14/1
    2 M Johnston LTO winners running in same class
    Geophony 1.55 sandown……………………………………6/1
    Fire Fighting 3.40 Sandown………………………………..10/1

    Hope these helps.
    Mike

  4. Looking through the Newton Abbot cards and specifically the 4.20,the horse thats of interest is Relkwoood,the trainers record with chasers is 40%,i think he is relative new to training,he sent out 7 winners from 12 chasers 15/16 jumps season,horse is course and distance winner,Morgan is profitable at track,jockey is profitable too as is jockey/Trainer combo with chasers,the original one i looked at was Mrsrobin but 9/2 as opposed to 14/1,Kim Bailey is in form and has Patsys Castle,the fact that Bass is 0/14 here is off putting ,they also have Court Frontier in the 2.35,might just back both

  5. Fascinating! I been learning some new tricks on Betfair – according to the weight of money, Shrewd, who is being backed should be a sorter price than the favourite in the Ebor Yor 4.00 but for me, an interesting EW bet is Havana Beat. Tops all columns for cdg, most recent & last 3 runs combined, new jockey on board with 17% SR here & at 33/s……

    1. Inspired by you, I read the form and found that in 08/14 was sent to US for another huge prize over 13.5f and was an unlucky third, given too much to do. The stable have previous with Sergeant Cecil, too.
      Ran in this last year and was unplaced on the softened going; needs fast ground so the rain might have been a nuisance y’day.

      1. Interestingly the trainer is 4/14,6 places with runners returning within 7 days, in the last two years according to a great new report on geegeez with even more trainer snippets. Varian has an ok record with such types as well.

  6. In the Ebor She is no Lady fits the weight requirement of 9 4 or less. Stable form an issue? Ia Antiquarium better than a handicapper? Is it is then he should be able to carry the weight?

    I like Mubtasim in the 3,25 at York, 5/1 about.

  7. Hi
    Nice to meet you one time again,not so much betting last time,i had some break
    There is overpriced horse at Chelm 19:20 today Street Artist 21/1
    very much AW horse,had two poor runs on turf but he is cool on AW
    jock is 7lb off
    yet another my bet is Sharp Rise 15:45 Newton Abbot 5/1 intersting race
    by the way Paul Jacob tipped Presented like his bet of year but with that price it is nothing great

    Kalibre Kid i am going to wait on more info about weather
    Regards
    P

  8. PATANJALI 8.05 bath is interesting at 10/1 paddy power LTO was a good run fav win LTO was a weak race trainer in great form as well as the jockey and shows up in a Geegeez new report trainer snippets distance move cant see why its been drifting in the betting but worth mentioning now at 10s its al so dropped in class antony

    1. Hi Antony… I agree with you..dropped in class and is one of only 3 in the field who has won on the going……Change of jockey as well for an in form yard. Strange…unless somebody knows something we don’t lol.

      1. late n/r someone did know something tony waited all day for that horse to run theres always anther day to have a bet

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.