Well I don’t believe there are any sprint handicaps this Saturday with stats/trends to support them so I have had a dip into the Ebor handicap. I doubt I will tip in it but you never know. I have promised to provide at least one trends race each weekend for Members so with that in mind….
Note: some caution given the weather. It looks like rain is on the way so there may not be much point in looking just yet. It could well be run on soft…
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York Ebor Handicap: 2016
19 renewals
378 horses, 75 places
CHECKLIST
TRENDS
Previous Place
- 12/19 Top 3 LTO
- 12/202 runners, 48 places…63% winners…53% runners…64% places
Horse Age
- Not too much, winners aged 3-7.
- 5 year olds have done best: 10/104,24 places
- 3 YO: 3/21,10 places
- 4 YO: 3/157,26 places
- 6/7 YO: 3/83, 14 places
- 8+ : 0/13, 1 place
- 5 year olds have done best: 10/104,24 places
Days Since Run
- Nothing much here either.
Horse Weight (exc jock claims)
- 9-5 + : 1/81, 11 places
Horse Official Rating
- 103+ : 1/85, 16 places
Season Runs
- Nothing significant
Wins (Distance)
- Nothing significant
Position In Market
- Nothing significant
Odds
- Nothing really significant, regular winners at all sorts of odds.
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OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
- Nothing significant
Headgear
- CP: 1/17, 2 p
- Blinkers: 0/22, 2 p
- Visor: 0/20, 3 p
Pos Wgts (ex Clm)
- Top (inc joint): 0/22, 4 places
- 12/19 11th or worse in the weights
Stalls/Draw
Stall
- Nothing overly significant, no reason to be put off by any stall, really, winners spread across. Some pointers of interest…
- Stalls 1-5: 2/90, 17 places
- 18+ : 5/81, 18 places
- Stalls 8-13: 2/106, 15 places
Draw Segment
- Quarter 1 fares ‘worse’: 2/93, 17 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
- 0-3: 0/19, 5 places
- 4 runs only: 3/8, 4 places…+49 SP
H-Run (Last Placing)
- 19/19 Had placed on at least one of last three starts
- Had Not: 0/53, 3 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
Nothing significant for any of stats areas in this section.
Miscellaneous 2
Best in Three Runs
- 14/19 had won at least once in last three starts
- 19/19 had come top 3 at least once in last three starts
Best in Five Runs
- 18/19 had won at least once in last 5 starts
- 19/19 Top 2 in at least once of last 5 runs
Highest Class Run
- Had run at G2 or G1 level: 2/92, 10 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Odds
- Bigger than 11/1 on last run: 1/103, 14 places
- 12/1-16/1: 1/59. 12 places
- 18/1+ : 0/44, 2 places
(LR) Track
- Ascot: 6/76, 14 places
- Goodwood: 5/103, 22 places
- Galway: 2/15, 4 places
- Leop: 2/10, 2 places
- Lingfield: 1/7, 2 places
- Haydock: 1/23, 4 places
- Newmarket (july): 1/14, 4 places
- York: 1/56, 9 places
Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics
1st Run Race Code
- National Hunt: 0/25, 5 places
1st Run Distance
- 19/19 ran over at least 7f on debut
- 0/50, 8 places ran over 5-6 furlongs on debut.
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Trainer Yard Location
- Yorkshire: 1/59, 7 places
Trainers (of interest)
Only two trainers have won this more than once
- L Cumani: 3/14, 6 places… +10 SP
- S Bin Suroor: 2/11, 3 places… +28 SP
- One winner…many… (Tuite/Mullins/Ellison/Elliot/Given/Murtagh/Eyre/Millman/Elsworth/Obrien/Perrett/J Chapple Hyam)
Jockeys (of interest)
- J Spencer: 2/13, 7 places…+ 7 SP
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That is all for this post.
12 Responses
I don’t know if anyone reads Mark Howards free blog, but on Wednesday he eluded to a selection he has given to paying subscribers of his York update for the Ebor as being stabled at Fahey’s for the week and with reference to the booked jockey A. McNamara. The reference to the jockey has since been removed from the post, I assume at the request of a subscriber, but in last nights blog he stated the forecast rain would increase confidence. A. McNamara is riding Heartbreak City for Tony Martin, currently 16/1 in places. Just for anyone interested, although I haven’t checked its profile to the stats.
Thanks for this – I don’t read his blog but maybe I should, he certainly knows his stuff. That is a good spot and information like that all helps in the end. May be a right old slog if the rain arrives and having a NH/dual purpose trainer on side may be no bad thing.
I have been following all his paid stuff including his online updates and his books since the start of the 2015 flat season and would recommend it to anyone serious (although I use it as a guide as opposed to following literally). A whole lot of information for not a lot of cost.
I couldn’t agree more Nick. I have his flat & jumps books going back to 2005, and also subscribe to his NH updates (not so keen on the flat), but his free blog is certainly worth a read for potential future winners for anyone who keep alerts.
Looking at this horses profile it would appear that wet conditions are required Josh and that looks a distinct possibility. A. McNamara is a lad going places and his five pound claim suggests a big run is expected.
I am on Ivan Grozny each way ante post and so I am either £200 down or £2,600 up?
Thanks for the stats Josh, I will take a look and may pick out something else? I wont be watching it as the Lions are at home to Sheffield United at The Den.
Ah I think your pick is now a non-runner! Was it no runner no bet?? Lame i believe.
Yep I am yet to look through. IF any ‘profile’ throws up a decent shortlist I will dive it but if I am left with 8+ runners say I probably won’t bother.
Hi Martin
Will that be a welcome win for the BLADES ;-0
I think I have it narrowed down to Top Tug and She is No Lady (also happens to be Mark’s other pick) with a preference for the former. Alan King has won a number of these long distance flat races in the past 12 months so suspect he wants this prize as well. It’s his first runner in the race since 2010. Won with his first Ebor Festival race yesterday.
Hi Nick Agree with comments about A King slight concern for Top Tug he doesn’t want it getting any softer according to sources.
Broadsword, your due a big thanks for spotting that about Heartbreak Hotel and after having a look at the horses profile was more than enough to get on yesterday at 14/1. This is the sort of occasion which makes being member on here a no brainer…
Sorry. Meant Heartbreak City and I’m not even an Elvis fan…