FREE DAILY POST: 16/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete…a couple of Stats tips being nibbled at and some ‘trainer in form’ pointers that have been doing ok so far this month…

To NOTE: I am busy compiling some York Notes and these will be completed at some point on Tuesday. They will be posted in the Exclusive Downloads bit of the Members Area when done. I will also email out. There are some interesting stats for the likes of Haggas/Ryan/O’Meara and it will be interesting how they get on. I plan to add some daily notes, using the stats, in the Forum also.

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TIPS 

None

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +10.5 points)

4.00 Ripon

Cape of Glory – 1 point win– 9/1 | 8/1 (general) 2nd 6/1

This one appears to have a few things going on which indicate that 9/1 could be a decent price here. Firstly Dalgleish is 9/33,17 places with stable newcomers in the last year. He also does well when teaming up with Makin in handicaps here- 5/14,7 places. So, stats wise at least, this one looks interesting. The horse…well he is an unexposed 3 year old who has some winning form over 10/11f already. The last two runs raise some questions. I have no idea what went on at Chester but the last run was ok. In first time blinkers he lead for most of the way, before fading in the last furlong or so. There is no headgear here and his new trainer clearly doesn’t think he needs it yet. The final piece of the jigsaw was pace- there are no natural out and out front runners in this, usually, so Makin could be able to dictate if he wishes. It looks like an open enough race and at 9s I think there is enough there to have a dart. Hopefully Dalgleish has worked his magic and we can see an improvement on recent runs.

7.00 Wolvs

Matildas Law – 1 point win – 9/1 | 8/1 (general) UP 16/1

Well the price of this one stands out for a few reasons. I am a bit uncomfortable given it is a 3 year old only handicap and the horse doesn’t have any winning form as yet, combined with needing to excuse a recent run. Anyway, you can see the supporting evidence as follows…  in essence this is about the jockey booking first and foremost. Chris Wall and ‘deadly’ Ted (is that a nickname or have I just made that up?!) are 8/26,13 places when teaming up here, 7/19, 11 places in handicaps, for +22 points. So, that may be a partnership to follow. Chris Wall has been in form. Last year I had a basic micro for him of backing his handicappers in August. Those that are 8/1< do particularly well. I thought it was a bit too simple albeit I know a couple of long standing blog/systems/research note takers have kept him onside this month. So far that basic micro angle is 3/12, around +7 SP.  3/8 those priced 8/1<, +12 SP. (Doh!) His last 8 runners… 2,1,1,2,2,9,1,6. So, they are running well. (He has another runner on the day,Always A Dream 8.10 Leicester 10/3) Wall is also 13/68,32 places with all handicappers at the track. Solid.

The horse…she ran well in her first couple of maidens and has twice ran ok on the sand at Lingfield. Arguably her best runs have come on that surface. That penultimate run in a classified stakes has worked out fairly well, producing a few winners. I don’t know what happened the last day but that wasn’t her running. Maybe it was the ground, I am not sure. The 50 day break is therefore interesting, maybe concerning. There could have been a problem or they just gave her more time to strengthen up. The market may well guide here. There will clearly be more to come at some point. The final piece was the fact she is top rated on the geegeez speed figures which adds to the confidence at least.

That will do for today.

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

6.40 Leic – Ballymore Castle

Ivory (16/1<)

8.10 Leic –  R Bar Open

J Fanshawe Kempton

4.15 Kepmt – King of Naples- UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

None.

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SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE 

(running total: 8/54, 12 places… +40.625 points)

6.40 Leicester-

No bet. Ah I was hoping 6s/5s would still be around for Ballymore Castle as I think that would have been an EW bet to nothing and a decent enough price in the context of this race. Some may think 4s is still ok but really there isn’t much between him and Reputation and at 4s I will leave it for the purposes of this blog. It does look to be between those two for me and both have been backed and/or entered the notebook in recent runs. I would be surprised if one of them didn’t win this but the odds can’t tempt me in now. Hopefully some of you may have got on BC at 6s last evening. If he came back out to 5s I would be tempted in I think. I would want the safety barrier of an EW bet here as bar price, I can’t see why Reputation won’t run a good race. A 1-2 maybe!

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TRAINERS IN FORM 

Well this new addition is doing ok as a starting point for further research. So far in August the stats read… 5/29, 13 places (inc wins), +9 points if you had just backed them all, 1 point win. Remember the point of this bit is to use the Geegeez Gold racecard ‘trainer form’ indicators to highlight any possible horses of interest in a given race. I am looking for races where only 1 or 2 trainers are ‘in form’ in the last 14 or 30 days according to the geegeez criteria.

With that in mind, let’s head to Kempton…

2.15 – Pendo (14) 9/1 2nd  | Rock Palm (14,c1) 14/1 UP

5.15 – Port Gaverne (14) 7/1 UP | Another Day (14) 6/1 UP

 

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That is all for today. Good Luck.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Hi All

    2 x Qualifiers tomorrow for The Dalgleish / Makin angle

    2.30 Ripon Assisted
    4.00 Ripon Cape of Glory

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Hi guys.

      Does any one have any stats angle for Hugo Palmer/Graham gibbons combo. I remember when they team up last season they do have a good strike rate. combined today in a maiden at thirsk and got beat on the nose, am not sure if that was the first runner this season.

      1. He hasnt really ridden much for him this season (not sure why) but quickly firing up HRB a simple one would be non-handicaps, Sp 20/1 or less gives you 7/10, 9 places +31.12 before today. Palmer actualy mentioned when interviewed before the 2015 flat season that Graham was 3/3 for him at that point which is how I first found Covert Love last season.

  2. Hi All, Hi Steve,

    I got home late from ‘ossie’ just in time to catch a revenge system runner TEETOTAL 8/1 at Thirsk…..n Tinkler. BF last time out. Top rating of 102 Distance winner…I would have ignored but the next rating below…had a jockey with no wins leaving a gap of 13 pts…and a plum draw of 16% [4] won 3 times on ground + 3 places. The 2 below had never won on ground, so I couldn’t believe the 8s on offer. It was a nice 1 1/2 length winner.
    Sorry I couldn’t put it up earlier…my Irish ew..was 4th.

      1. Hi Ali….it’s just a terminology I use for a system where certain trainers who have a Fav beaten, return quickly and redeem the mistake, sometimes with a really good price. It’s almost like they’ve been shown up in front of friends…lol. and strike right back N Tinkler being one of those trainers.

  3. George Wood is 0-14 at Kempton,now the horses he has ridden might not have been fancied,but until he has had a winner,i will let king of naples run without my money

  4. About once a month I and a couple of friends received texts offering a free bet in a certain race. These are usually in fields of five or six runners and usually we get two or three different selections. Today they go for the 4.45 at kempton. Somebody will get the winner and will no doubt be tempted to join. AVOID.

  5. hi steve

    cape of glory does not qualify on my dalgleish/makin micro angle, as is a class 3, perhaps I have a different version? my version is class 4 5 6.

    1. Hi Malcolm

      Yes I have my own version tweaked it to suit what was happening in 2016
      Josh put up a page under free reports & systems where I mention a few I use

      Cheers
      Steve

  6. Josh,

    I failed to cancel my monthly pay pal £12 payment after paying the annual memebrs subscription. Can I get a refund please?

    One for today – Zain Arion, 4.45 KP.

    Good luck

    1. Hi Martin, yep of course, no problem. I have just done it I think, and cancelled those donations moving forward.
      Cheers
      Josh

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