To NOTE: I am busy compiling some York Notes and these will be completed at some point on Tuesday. They will be posted in the Exclusive Downloads bit of the Members Area when done. I will also email out. There are some interesting stats for the likes of Haggas/Ryan/O’Meara and it will be interesting how they get on. I plan to add some daily notes, using the stats, in the Forum also.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +10.5 points)
Cape of Glory – 1 point win– 9/1 | 8/1 (general) 2nd 6/1
This one appears to have a few things going on which indicate that 9/1 could be a decent price here. Firstly Dalgleish is 9/33,17 places with stable newcomers in the last year. He also does well when teaming up with Makin in handicaps here- 5/14,7 places. So, stats wise at least, this one looks interesting. The horse…well he is an unexposed 3 year old who has some winning form over 10/11f already. The last two runs raise some questions. I have no idea what went on at Chester but the last run was ok. In first time blinkers he lead for most of the way, before fading in the last furlong or so. There is no headgear here and his new trainer clearly doesn’t think he needs it yet. The final piece of the jigsaw was pace- there are no natural out and out front runners in this, usually, so Makin could be able to dictate if he wishes. It looks like an open enough race and at 9s I think there is enough there to have a dart. Hopefully Dalgleish has worked his magic and we can see an improvement on recent runs.
Matildas Law – 1 point win – 9/1 | 8/1 (general) UP 16/1
Well the price of this one stands out for a few reasons. I am a bit uncomfortable given it is a 3 year old only handicap and the horse doesn’t have any winning form as yet, combined with needing to excuse a recent run. Anyway, you can see the supporting evidence as follows… in essence this is about the jockey booking first and foremost. Chris Wall and ‘deadly’ Ted (is that a nickname or have I just made that up?!) are 8/26,13 places when teaming up here, 7/19, 11 places in handicaps, for +22 points. So, that may be a partnership to follow. Chris Wall has been in form. Last year I had a basic micro for him of backing his handicappers in August. Those that are 8/1< do particularly well. I thought it was a bit too simple albeit I know a couple of long standing blog/systems/research note takers have kept him onside this month. So far that basic micro angle is 3/12, around +7 SP. 3/8 those priced 8/1<, +12 SP. (Doh!) His last 8 runners… 2,1,1,2,2,9,1,6. So, they are running well. (He has another runner on the day,Always A Dream 8.10 Leicester 10/3) Wall is also 13/68,32 places with all handicappers at the track. Solid.
The horse…she ran well in her first couple of maidens and has twice ran ok on the sand at Lingfield. Arguably her best runs have come on that surface. That penultimate run in a classified stakes has worked out fairly well, producing a few winners. I don’t know what happened the last day but that wasn’t her running. Maybe it was the ground, I am not sure. The 50 day break is therefore interesting, maybe concerning. There could have been a problem or they just gave her more time to strengthen up. The market may well guide here. There will clearly be more to come at some point. The final piece was the fact she is top rated on the geegeez speed figures which adds to the confidence at least.
That will do for today.
Fahey (any odds)
6.40 Leic – Ballymore Castle
8.10 Leic – R Bar Open
J Fanshawe Kempton
4.15 Kepmt – King of Naples- UP
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE
(running total: 8/54, 12 places… +40.625 points)
No bet. Ah I was hoping 6s/5s would still be around for Ballymore Castle as I think that would have been an EW bet to nothing and a decent enough price in the context of this race. Some may think 4s is still ok but really there isn’t much between him and Reputation and at 4s I will leave it for the purposes of this blog. It does look to be between those two for me and both have been backed and/or entered the notebook in recent runs. I would be surprised if one of them didn’t win this but the odds can’t tempt me in now. Hopefully some of you may have got on BC at 6s last evening. If he came back out to 5s I would be tempted in I think. I would want the safety barrier of an EW bet here as bar price, I can’t see why Reputation won’t run a good race. A 1-2 maybe!
TRAINERS IN FORM
Well this new addition is doing ok as a starting point for further research. So far in August the stats read… 5/29, 13 places (inc wins), +9 points if you had just backed them all, 1 point win. Remember the point of this bit is to use the Geegeez Gold racecard ‘trainer form’ indicators to highlight any possible horses of interest in a given race. I am looking for races where only 1 or 2 trainers are ‘in form’ in the last 14 or 30 days according to the geegeez criteria.
With that in mind, let’s head to Kempton…
2.15 – Pendo (14) 9/1 2nd | Rock Palm (14,c1) 14/1 UP
5.15 – Port Gaverne (14) 7/1 UP | Another Day (14) 6/1 UP
That is all for today. Good Luck.