STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Fahey (any odds)
7.30 Wind: Young John
2.30 Chelm: Jack The Laird 2nd
7.30 Wind: Rosies Premiere
Pam Sly (any odds)
7.00 Wind: Ghinia
TTP:MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total: 8/52, 12 places… +44.625 points)
Kommander Kirkup – 1 pt EW– 20/1 (SkyB/Coral) 16/1 | 14/1 (general) * UP
Silvanus – 1 pt EW– 8/1 (SJ), 15/2 (SB/BetW/BetBr) 7/1 (general) UP (4th) *
*well that was poor- a bit more effort from Mulrennan would have been welcome, to manoeuvre into some space and at least place, to limit the damage. A bit of a nothing ride, seemed to have plenty there. The less said about KK the better.
This is far from a confident poke but I have decided that 20s-16s just feels too big for this one. Firstly he is a tricky horse who needs plenty to go right and who needs plenty of cajoling. He also looks like he is best fresh- I couldn’t help but notice that he is 1/5,5 places when returning after 60+ days. It looks like his new trainer has cottoned onto that and he returns here again after a decent enough break. He won two starts ago at 40/1 over 6f on soft. The conditions may have played a role that day but he did beat Best Trip who was running well at the time and subsequently, and he did it fairly well. This is only his 19th flat start and he is 2/18,10 places so far, showing some general consistency. IF we subscribe to the ‘best fresh’ profile then that can excuse his last run. The 5f here is also a question and I don’t know if he will cope. He won his maiden over CD but that may be no indication. However there isn’t loads of pace on paper in this for me- well not loads of front runners anyway- well there are no out and out front runners in here- and it could be possible that he can track whatever pace there is from his draw. The trainer is also in form – 1/5,2 places last 14 days, 2/10,3 places last 30 days, 3/10,5 places at the track in last year. So, there are a few positives and a few major questions, but there was just enough there, at the price, for me to have a go. He may well be scrubbed along early and we will need the binoculars to find him, game over. But, worth a risk at this price for me.
Silvanus- well I have deliberated for long enough on this race and I can’t fully make up my mind on this one either. Maybe a race I should have sat out but it is still a test section and there is enough here for me to test myself out on. My gut says he is getting on, there are plenty of younger ones in here, the trainer is a bit hot and cold, and those last two runs don’t inspire much confidence. My head says the handicapper is relenting and he drops in class. 6 runs ago here this season he was coming third in a C2 off 95. This is a C4 off 85, in a race where plenty have questions. That run was also after a similar length break. If he repeats that he must run well here. When he is there to do business he usually runs up with the pace, which I like given the lack of it in here. He has been held up the last twice and never really put into it. The Ayr run was ok. Mulrennan comes back on for the first time in 15 starts and he is 2/14,4 places on him in handicaps. I do wonder whether he is just regressive now and is losing some of his speed. But, there has been a bit of money and he has a solid record in the 9/2-8/1 range 7/20,9 places. All wins 12/1 or shorter.
This looks a weak enough race. The favourite may follow up but the capper could start getting his measure soon enough. He could have been well placed here though. Fredricka could take this and his price is OK but he needs cajoling and is a tricky one to win with also. Where there is pace it looks to be high, unless the Goldie horse blasts off from low. There are a few hold up types in here and I am unsure if the race will be run to suit.
We shall see. This looks tricky but I just about convinced myself to go with these two at the prices.
TRAINERS IN FORM
A trip to Chelmsford for these trainer in form starting points…
3.00 – Intercepted (14,30) 5/2 WON 15/8 | Sky of Stars (14) 9/2 UP
5.00- Romantic Angel (14) 15/2 UP
That is all for today.