Just the 3.55 to focus on today…
Toofi – 1 point win – 14/1 (general)
Mythmaker – 1 point win – 25/1 (general)
Well my tipping in these big sprint races has been abject at best this season with just the one 6/1 winner to show so far. Given the types of race and the competitiveness the win strike rate will never be huge and you usually try and tick along by collecting the odd bit of place money along the way. Sadly the majority of mine have failed to hit the places which has meant prolonged pain. But, we go on. The sprint testing zone should give some promise that at some point I will find a winner or two, hopefully starting in this race.
Stats/trends I used as a guide: Age 3-7, OR 101<, Not top or bottom weights (inc joints,albeit I am cautious given the number of joint bottom weights this year) I think that would leave a shortlist of: Toofi / Moonraker / Nameitwhatyoulike / Mythmaker / Go Far / Pipers Note. That is very much a guide.
Having looked through all the runners, watched a few videos of recent races and looked at the market, these are the two I want to have a dabble on…
Toofi – Robert Cowell is going to win a big pot with this one you would think, at some point. Certainly the ability is there and he is with one of the finest masters of the sprinting art. Around this time last year he was coming a close second to Magical Memory at Goodwood off 98. With the jockey claim he runs off 95 here. He was a 1 length 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup (a possible target?) off 102. The ability is there, for sure. A few things look interesting to me.
Firstly Cowell is now ‘in form’ and there are not too many in this race. In the last 14 days he is 5/23, 0/23 in the 14 days or so before that. The jockey booking looks fascinating – in the sense that I find it odd that Fahey has 3 in here, in a decent race, and he is on none of them- two of those he has ridden recently and the jockey on Tatlisu rides for Fahey for the first time I believe. It gives the impression- and it may be wide of the mark- that Cowell has gone out of his way to get the 5lbs of this one’s back. Who knows. The horse has not been asked a serious question once on any start for Cowell this season, to my eyes at least. He ran ok at York, outpaced, jockey sitting pretty motionless for the whole race, coasting home. At Ascot he ran a bit better with the stable mate winning the Wokingham. He ran ok there in midfield from the back and again no serious question asked. What on earth went on at Goodwood? Someone, a better race reading/jockey watching judge than I, tell me what the hell went on there? Kirby was pushing, lightly touching with the whip, and he was just starting to make some ground and then he just stopped riding. Nothing. Simply stopped and he coasted home. He was on the wrong part of the track, and maybe Kirby felt something- but the fact he is out here 14 days later suggests not. Maybe he thought the race had gone- and he would have been right- but he could have been much closer I think. Hard to fathom. So, he has never been asked a serious question for me and when he does he is going to have something in hand I think.
He is a sprint handicapper to watch and on the basis of all the above, in the context of his price, I wanted to have a dart. He is well drawn for this race/track. He can be held up but he raced more prominently at Goodwood in mid division. He will need luck in running and maybe this isn’t his day. I may have read it wrong and his head just isn’t in racing mode at the moment. I want to pay to find out. If/when he repeats that Magical Memory run, he wins a race like this.
Mythmaker– more speculative but I couldn’t resist a nibble at the odds. I don’t know what went wrong last time at Newcastle but that wasn’t his running. The run at York before that was in a decent enough race and he was staying on again at the end there. A repeat of that run would put him in the mix here I think. He is drawn low and races prominently which is always best for me, in general. I think Mulrennan could have rode Nameitwhatyoulike in here and I think that is a positive. That York neck second was after 90 days so the 49 day break isn’t of great concern, unless due to a problem of course. He is only 4 and this is the 14th turf start of his life. The trainer’s horses are still going well enough and he can train a sprint horse. We have seen that with Tangerine Trees over the years and with Alpha Delphini this season. At the bigger prices he looked the most interesting to me.
So, a couple of pokes- and they very much feel like that. Not horses to go mad on. Given a lot of my flat tips haven’t placed I was reluctant to go 1 point EWs- 2nd and 3rd here we come!! But, there are plenty of reasons why they could out-run their odds and hopefully we are entertained for a way.
Well the draw is interesting here. On Good/Good to Firm, 6f, 16+ runners…according to Geegeez draw stats in the last 5 years those drawn 14 or higher are 0/59, 4 places. That is rather off-putting for that side. Bar Related I don’t think there is loads of pace that side to take them into it. Him and Kimberella will be up against that rail and maybe one of them will stay there, I wouldn’t put it past them. But, those draw stats are off-putting a tad. It suggests a track/ground bias, rather than just pace.
Orions Bow has an obvious chance but on this occasion I think 9/2 is short enough considering it is possible the handicapper may be getting his measure. He was in a blanket finish behind the winner at Goodwood and has gone up another 3lb. He could still be improving but I think he will need to again here. He travels so well and may well look the winner entering the final furlong, it is just whether something else has more up their sleeve. There isn’t much I could say to put you off him really if you think 9/2 is fine. Perfect Pasture would have a chance but has gone up 5lb and has the ratings/top weight stats to overcome. Only a slight negative but again you are looking to see if there is anything that may have more in hand. I never know what to think of those big field Irish handicaps- British raiders do quite well in them which maybe suggests they are not as strong as over here, at the higher level? Not a well thought through statement by any means.
Nameitwhatyoulike was high up there but I think he wants it softer to be at his best and I think Mulrennan would have had the choice. He is a bit more exposed than some in here. He may well get an easy enough lead and get across to be lower than his no. 13 stall. That worries me and he could place. I think there are a few too many better horses in here, or some with more potential. His track record – 1/7,6 places catches your eye though. There may be speedier types on this good ground. There wasn’t anything else that really stood out. I have been influenced by those draw stats and if Intisaab had been low he would have been high up the list. He is a hold up horse and will need plenty of luck. Related and Kimberella will give it a good go from that side though, and may take him into it. Nuno Tristan looks like a 7f horse and will need a real pace collapse at this track I think. Possible but he will need luck given his style.
All in all, one of those puzzles that starts to give you a headache after a while. I have only got one right this season, in the ‘tips’ and fingers crosses I can make it two. Hopeful rather than confident!
What do you like?
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Fahey (any odds)
2.15 Newm: Clef / Lady In Question
3.25 Ripon: George Bowen/Gdads World/Khelman/Partick
3.45 Donc: Farlow
3.55 Ripon: Tatlisu/Nuno Tristan
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.45 Newm: Pushkin Museum (16/1<)
3.20 Newm: Paddy Power / Powerallied (16/1<)
3.25 Ripon: Twin Appeal (16/1<)
3.40 Newb: Ower Fly / Palawan (6/1< guide)
4.25 Newm: Fire Fighting / Watersmeet (12/1<)
5.25 Donc: Ingleby Spring (25/1<)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total: 8/52, 12 places… +44.625 points)
A mediocre run from Groundworker there, the cheekpieces clearly having no effect. The race did set up for the winner, getting his head in front for the first time since last April, the drop in class, fast pace and quick return seemingly doing the trick. He was running well but I thought 4s / 9/2 was about right/slightly short this morning. I thought he may get outpaced over this CD but he did it well. In truth he won in a manner which made that price look big. Always room for improvement.
That is all for today. Good luck with your bets.