FREE DAILY POST: 12/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete…and EW test nibble on Groundworker at 8s in 7.50 the highlight…

Trends/Stats for Ripon Great St Wilfred Stakes have been posted.

 

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TIPS 

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +10.5 points)

Well a deflating day on Thursday, both horses very well backed and no return. Holy Cross went off at 3s and looked to be coming into it well before finding very little/plodding on. A very odd/tame finishing effort. Always more gutting when well backed ones don’t perform.

None on Friday.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN SYSTEM BETS 

Newbury (6/1 or under, guide- Hannon fired in a few biggies this season)

2.50 – Steal The Scene

3.20 – Silver Quay

5.35 – Kismet Hardy

 

6.00 Newm – Davids Duchess (16/1<)

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

7.50 Catterick

Groundworker – 1 point EW– 8/1 (bet365/SB/BV) 7/1 (general) UP

Well I was going to tip 1 point win this one and 1 point win Thornaby Princess who looked a bit over-priced at 14s given her recent consistent form. Anyway, instead I will just back this one each way as there isn’t another at a price I want to be on really.

Groundworker- well it is the class drop and the first time cheeckpieces which catch the eye, allied to the fact that he keeps running well enough and there is plenty of pace on here for him to track. He certainly has the ability to take this for me and is well enough handicapped on bits and pieces of form. I do think the headgear will need to work but he is at least doing something different and he is well drawn for the CD. There isn’t much more to it than that really. I just thought in that context that 8s looked worth a go. There is plenty of pace for him to track and he looks like the type who needs everything to drop right- which it may just do here.

Bold Spirit/Harpers Ruby/Innocently like to get on with it. Compton River led for for most of the way LTO, Perfect Words likes get on with it and a handful of others, including the selection can race up there. Hopefully Lee gets a good early position just off the pace and can pick up the pieces if/when they start to fade late. He has looked an awkward ride at times, as if he doesn’t put it all in when asked (travels well usually) and with any luck the cheekpieces will focus his mind and make the difference. The trainer goes ok here and is 4/17 in the last year. They have been running Ok in the last few weeks.

You can give plenty a chance in here and there are a few taking a class drop. Innocently is short enough for one who has struggled to get his head in front. Everything went right the last day and he won’t be able to dictate here I don’t think- the jockey is 0/8,1p on him also- maybe he needs some knowing. But he drops in class and clearly a repeat of that last run puts him right there. 4s looks short enough though. Salvatore Fury looks short enough also but has the ability to take this and the race may be run to suit, provided he doesn’t get taken off his feet too much early on. Compton River owes us nothing and may progress again but the handicapper will get him sooner or later and in a race that has a few in it who have been running at C5, and running well enough, this 6lb rise may stop him this time. It may not but he has done his job for us, for now.

So, we have one who I think looks a tad big at 8s who has looked threatening a few times for this trainer, this season, without ever following through. Without the headgear I think I would leave but the hope is that this sparks him up, makes him concentrate and put it all in when asked at the business end. There is only one way to find out if he does…

That is all for this bit today.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

A decent 6/1 winner and 8/1 second from the three horses yesterday. Let’s see if any of these three can follow up as we head to Newcastle…

2.00- Saxagogo (14,30) 5/2  WON 3/1 | George Ravenscar (30) 7/1 UP

4.40- Johnny B Goode (14) 5/1

 

**

That is all for today. Good luck.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Draw alert.
    The new track at Newcastle seems to have bedded down and its thrown up a significant draw bias.

    Since the three days of the Northumberland plate festival,
    which started on the 23 June. There have been 12 hcps over the straight course with 9 or more runners

    there is a strong bias to stall ONE over the straight course

    Handicaps
    5F…..1 from 2

    6F…..0 from 3

    7F…..3 from 5

    8F…..1 from 2

    Total 5 from 12..prices 10/1-8/1-16/1-9/4 and 20/1

    And of the ones that didn’t win..5 placed.

    Early days yet, and a small sample I know but it’s worth a look.

    todays fancies based solely on the draw

    2:00 Katebird

    3:35 Slingby

    4:10 Indistar

    4:40 Tom sawyer

    5;10 Fruit salad

    Ian S

    1. thanks for that Ian, top work. Will be keeping a close eye on those for sure. Interesting if it confirms itself over the coming weeks.

    1. Hey Andy… Should have? There are no ‘should haves’ on my posts, in terms of rules for when something does or doesn’t get mentioned.(bar the systems of course) I clearly missed/didn’t pick up that stat yesterday and neither did anyone else.

  2. Morning all. Cosmic Chatter 6.00 N/KT is up to winning this I think. He is racing off a mark he hasn’t won off before which wouldn’t usually appeal but the Carr/O’Sullivan factor is a big plus recently and track, trip and class isn’t an issue. Run style and draw is fairly even here according to Geegeez pace report and he hosed up two runs back after being really unlucky the time before and was 2nd to an in form horse last time. All in all a bet today…

  3. Hi Josh / Guys

    No system qualifiers today so like Ian has done with the draw I have had a play around with some stallion data to see how they are faring on the new Newcastle surface and come up with the following

    Newcastle
    Standard only
    5f to 1 mile 4 1/2 furlongs
    Cape Cross, Dutch Art, Fast Company, Fastnet Rock, Pivotal, Poets Voice, Power, Rio De La Plata, Sea the Stars, Street Cry, Teofilio

    44 selections, 23 winners, 34 places 52.27% SR win 77.27% SR place ROI + 204.89

    Over the 5f trip they are a perfect 6 selections 6 winners

    There are 4 selections today with the first being over 5f

    2.00 Saxagogo

    This has the added bonuses of being in the “Trainers in form” segment higlighted by Josh & ridden by S De Souza although we will have to see how Draw 13 fares.

    2.30 Palisade
    3.35 Depth Charge & Slingsby

    Should be some interesting viewing Good luck with all your selections today

    1. Terrific stuff this Steve and Ian….it’s in my mind set. palisade is a system horse for me, but not at the price. As is Awesome Quality in the 3.35.

    2. Good Work Steve
      Just wondering 2.30 Ronnie Baird (Poets Voice) and 3.00 Breton Blues (Street Cry) Would these be qualifiers? or is there a price cap?

      1. Hi Mozzer

        Ah yes sorry i capped it at 14/1 SP as there had not been any winners or places above these odds

    3. Interesting Steve. I’m no systems man – no HRB account or other – and I’d worked from the basis of Wolverhampton (ie Tapeta) stats after Andrew Mount pointed out Fastnet Rock as a likely Newcastle angle a few weeks ago.
      A fair degree of crossover…my primary list was;
      FASTNET ROCK
      SILVER CROSS
      CAPE CROSS
      STREET CRY
      PIVOTAL
      DARK ANGEL
      RIP VAN WINKLE
      ELUSIVE QUALITY
      AD VALOREM
      MAKFI
      (I added Poet’s Voice to the list after the Newcastle meetings to date)
      Interesting to see how it goes.
      Paul

      1. Yes lol….. Luckily I was on before the drift think the trainers comments before the off had a lot to do with it fairly bolted in but overall a very nice test with all races coming good 🙂

        1. yep that went rather well! That was an enjoyable watch, a small interest. Superb. Interesting how that develops moving forward.

  4. Newcastle….Purely on personal ratings before any other factor is introduced this is how mine run.

    1.30….Devils Bridge.
    2.00….Katebird.
    2.30….Palisade.
    3.00….Plenary.
    3.35….Depth Charge.
    4.10….Intense Scarlet.
    4.40….Oscars Journey.
    5.10….Annie Salts.

    It will be interesting for me to see, how the new filters introduced by Ian and Steve affect the pure rating.

    Cheers again lads.

  5. Thanks to Steve Wiseman for the Newcastle stallion data. You could not have picked a better day ( particularly if you backed Depth Charge at 14/1 and got 18/1 BOG).
    Using the same criteria for Wolverhampton 2013-2016 I came up with:
    BeatAll, Chevalier, Della Francesca, El Prado, Ivan Denisovic, More Than Ready, Ravens Pass, Shinko Forest, Silver Deputy, Statue of Liberty, Storming Home, Stormy Atlantic.
    It’s a long list but each one is profitable.
    Cumulatively you get 70 wins from 200 runs with an ROI of 81.77%.

    1. Thanks Kipper

      Your Wolverhampton criteria looks very interesting too making a note as i write
      🙂

      Cheers
      Steve

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