SUMMARY: One tip in the 7.55 Sandown, some system qualifiers, and some trainer ‘in form’ pointers for Yarmouth. That is all for today.
TO NOTE: I have had a look ahead to Saturday for trends purposes but I am reluctant to get involved in the Shergar Cup. There are a couple of decent sprint handicaps and I may have a look at them- but there is the jockey issue which may be more important on this day than most others, esp jockeys not knowing the horses etc etc. Anyway, I will glance at them Friday/Saturday and we shall see.
I am spending most of Thursday afternoon on a train back to Suffolk. I will be there for most of August I think, including a trip to Newmarket on Saturday. Due to plans Thursday evening I suspect Friday’s post will be up in the morning, albeit I will add a post for you to comment on etc.
Urgh- ‘carnage’ on Wednesday. No hiding that. The term piss poor comes to mind but that is how it goes sometimes – well, a lot of the time in truth. Lending 6 points back to the bookies is never a pleasant feeling, especially when you don’t get much of a run for your money at the business end. We move on, swiftly, while trying to learn the odd lesson… (I should add, I was bereft of ideas for a ‘Weekly Diary’ this week but then there was a gamble landed in Ireland and if I have the time that is worth some reflection/opinion)
My day was semi rescued by a winner for Steve’s ‘Josephine Gordon’ angles which produced a nice 7/1 winner. The comments are really worth a read on most days and I see he has a couple for tomorrow on a different angle already…
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total… +15.5 points)
7.55 Sandown –
Great Fun – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP
Sandown looks predictable enough on the weather front – good ground at the moment with the odd possible shower but likely to dry out leading up to racing. So, hopefully it remains good. This horse is making his first start for the trainer and I found it interesting that in the last year he has run 5 such ‘cast offs’ from other yards, 2 have won, a further one has placed. He has only sent 6 horses to Sandown in the last 5 years, one winning. The booking of SDS also caught the eye. On further inspection he has only ever ridden for the trainer three times with stats off – 1/3, 2 places. The horse… well this is only his 8th career start, having won a maiden for Brian Meehan last year at 16s over 7f (that time when Meehan still won maidens!!) He was consistent after that without pulling up too many trees and he hasn’t ever ran a really bad race. There is also some stamina in his blood and this stiff finish may suit him. A change of scenery and training regime may also bring out more- it needs to obviously. The trainer has only had 6 runners in the last 30 days but 2 have placed. Finally – this is a weak enough race, 6/1 the field which says it all. There are no stand out horses in this. So, all in all, at 9s that was enough to spark my interest.
Haydock- the rain is set in until lunch time apparently and I am totally guessing there at this moment in time, so will leave that card.
That is all for this section today.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
3.20- Bop It UP
3.50 – Ingleby Hollow NR
4.20 – Lincoln Rocks – WON 8/1
4.50 – Haraz – 2nd
4.30 Brighton – African Showgirl (any odds) WON 7/2
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
None. The 3.20 Haydock looked like a decent race to get stuck into but the weather is tempering my enthusiasm. According to BHA report the ground is good to firm/firm in places at the moment (so, Heavy for Haydock! 🙂 ) They had rain yesterday and have had some this morning apparently, and it is set in until lunchtime. I am simply guessing at this stage as to what the ground may be – as you are at Haydock in general really- and I don’t wish to waste 60-90 mins looking when it may all go out the window. So, i will leave it. A day off.
TRAINERS IN FORM
Let’s head to Yarmouth for some ‘in form’ trainers. These are a pointer/starting point where I highlight races where 1 or 2 trainers only are ‘in form’ according to the Geegeez stats (’14’ – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20%+ win SR OR 51%+ place SR, ’30’ 10+ runs last 30 days, 20%+ win SR OR 51%+ place SR) This approach has had some success and it is developing into an interesting test – I will keep going for a few more weeks and see if any of you have found it a useful addition or not….
2.40 – Amthal NR / Port Paradise – UP
3.10 – Master Gunner (14,30) 9/4 2nd | Buteo Bai (14) 4/1 UP
3.40 – Forest Lakes (14, 30) 10/1 UP | Sunbaked (14, 30) 6/1 3rd
4.10 – Himalayan Queen (14/30) 14/1 WON 16/1
5.10 – Perfect Orange (14) 14/1 UP
Remember these are just a guide as to the well being of the horses/yard, in races where others may not be going so well. Some look at the horses form/race is advised before backing any of the above – albeit sometimes trainer form like this can render recent form irrelevant as something at a big price just drops in.
That is all for today. Good luck with your bets.