SUMMARY: TIPS in plenty of races, across Testing Zone and Stats/Angles… The 2.00 Bath / 3.20- Brighton / 4.10 Ponte / 6.20 Yarmouth / 7.50 Yarmouth
(tips appear in the order i researched them, so a bit all over the place in terms of race times but I will leave it as it is)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total 6/35, 9 places… +49.25 points)
Eternitys Gate – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (bet365/BV) (11/2 general) UP 7/2
Mr Orange – 1.5 points win– 7/1 (general) UP* 6/1
*oh well that didn’t go to plan from start to finish. EG couldn’t get to the front and was never really in it. Mr Orange does look best over 6f from that run. The winner is clearly getting better and looks like has improved from her last run here- I wondered whether this stiff finish may catch her out, the draw was a bit off putting (pinged it) initially. Damn. Got that one wrong. She has fairly bolted up, and was pulling a bit early also. I didn’t predict that scenario (trying to make all) and having a look at some old form should have considered it as a possibility- and have put more weight to fact she should be getting better. Plenty to take from that race. Dandy Nicholls will get wins from Storm Trooper at some point. Royal Brave will somewhat bolt up when he doesn’t have to go wide all the way round, and has a collapsing pace in front of him.
I think Eternitys Gate may get his own way up front here from his draw and he is a scrapper. He went far too hard with 2 others LTO on a track that may not have suited, but kept on well enough. Back here, I expect more. And the trainer’s runners are starting to go ok again. The form of that race he won here a couple of starts ago has worked out well. 6s looked more than fair- an all the way win please! His win here was also impressive in the sense that he was taken on for most of the way and was ridden from quite some way out. I liked the way he kept on finding. It is possible he gets an easier lead here which would be helpful.
Mr Orange – Well, if there is a pace burn up (Duffield’s may try and make all also) then this one may pick up the pieces. He is just running well and while I think he is better over 6f he should have plenty of time to get going here. He responds well to pressure and if able to track Eternitys Gate he could be in the right place to pounce. He stays well and should give it a good go. The line may not come soon enough but I will take that chance at what looks a generous price to be. He is a hardened 3 year old who could be getting better, and he has track form.
There are a couple of other 3 year olds in here who may turn over these two – but they don’t have track form and this will be a new experience for the pair. The Duffield horse had the run of the race against the rail at Thirsk and was taken down early. She also needed every yard of that 6f and while this is a stiff 5 it may happen to quickly early on. The undulations and turns here will be a new experience. She may be good enough and worth a saver mind. That was also a small field, fillies only handicap. She has a few things to prove here. Sandra’s Secret has some questions stepping back into a race for older horses. The one run here over CD a few starts ago was ok at best and was way behind a horse called Oriental Splendour, who Eternitys Gate had beaten a couple of starts before that. The yards horses don’t go overly well here either. And she is drawn wide enough, but not impossible. Royal Brave would be more interesting if he was drawn low. The Tudhope booking catches the eye but from 13 he will need plenty of luck. He is usually held up and he could get too far behind/hit traffic up the inside/have to come wide- all reasons why he may just struggle. He finished like a train here three starts ago behind Eternitys Gate but was able to hug the rail all the way round from low. It is all about the start- Tudhope may boot him out and if in a decent position after 1 furlong or so then I will be concerned as he has the tools to go very close in this.
Some of you shrewdies like Burtonwood at an EW price and I can see why. Young/unexposed/trainer in form/ran well LTO despite rider losing irons. The last time I ‘took on the readers’ i dunked my head in a big bowl of egg and that may be the case here again. His most recent win was C6 and I wondered whether this level of C5 may be beyond him – albeit he has won an apprentice hncp at the class. His runs at Ponte and Carlisle this season suggest that he may not like a stiff finish over this trip- a bit one paced near the end on both times. However, there was juice in the ground on those runs and that may be the excuse. I left him but can see why some would nibble at double figures. He does need to step up again for me and I have gone for two with better recent winning form for me, whose prices I also thought were decent in the context of the race. The egg is prepared….
Catalinas Diamond – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) UP*
*well this horse will probably forever be frustrating and I don’t think I can keep tipping her at Bath until she goes in – which she will do at some point but I think I will give up now. She will always need a lot of luck, and look ‘unlucky’ as she may have done again here. I thought there may be a bit more pace but there wasn’t, which didn’t help. Odd ride- maybe she HAS to be ridden through horse but she broke well and found herself at the front – Drowne could have ridden her forward a bit to get a position but he didn’t, and naturally got stuck behind a wall of horses unable to get out when the jockey wanted. A frustrating horse. Not too much damage done though. Another for the Ron Harris team. In fine form as pointed out in post race thoughts at Salisbury. Now 4/16 last 14 days.
Go Charlie – 1/2 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/BV/Lad/WH) NR
Well it is getting to the stage now where horses of old start to appear in my tracker (when I remember to track them!) and here are two more that I will have one more throw of the dice at.
Catalinas Diamond – she will win over this course and distance at some point and when she does hopefully she makes us a small profit. It may well be today. She has won on good to soft/good and is 4lb lower than on some of the runs we have backed her. She has a low draw again which tempers all out enthusiasm and it may do for her again (getting stuck behind a wall of horses) but it isn’t impossible from there. There is enough pace on paper also. The last run was in a C5- not up to that level. The one before that was moderate and was never really in it -albeit went well for a time. The proper soft ground may have done for her in the run before that. The one before that is the one she could have won with more luck in running under Kirby. She likes this place – 3/11,4 places over CD. Hopefully this is the 4th. Worth ‘one more chance’ at 10s.
Go Charlie- well he has yet to win on turf but was an eye catcher the time we backed the one above. He travelled into it well and struggled for a run/was asked too late. Next time out at Chepstow he was on the wrong side completely but ran ok to a point. Better than it looks on paper anyway. He was held up at Chelmsford and didn’t do anything. Possible he didn’t like the surface. He is a slow starter also drawn low and the ease underfoot is an unknown. Not a horse I want to be ‘lumping’ on, nor a race for that matter. But, he is worth 1/2 a point to find out.
Lydia’s Place – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (BV/Lad/WH) 6/1 | 11/2 (general) UP
Well this one is in the tracker also – lost among the excitement of the looking at the quality fare at Bath! – (and thanks Nick!!)
We/I backed her LTO at Muss where she ran a decent enough race after a 35 day break. It is possible she is sharper here. This is also a fillies only handicap and she is reunited with the jockey who is 3/3 on her on the grass. All race conditions look fine and it is possible she could lead them all the way here. She is well handicapped on form last year and is definitely worth one more go in these conditions for me.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +15.5 points)
Courtsider – 1 point win – 7/1 (PP/BetfS) 13/2 (general) UP
This one looks interesting for a few reasons. She makes here handicap debit here and the trainer is 2/9,3 places with such runners in the last two years- albeit 0/5,1 places in the last year. But, she can clearly get one ready from maiden company. The horse ran well in a newmarket maiden LTO and appears to be getting the hang of things. The trainer is 8/18,12 places with all handicap runners here in the last 5 years. They don’t seem to mess around when making the trip. She is also in form – with a geegeez green ’14’. And they have also booked William Buick. That does catch the eye. All in all a few things there to go on and 7s felt a bit generous. It is a weak enough race and there is a short priced fav- but she has been off the track for 48 days which is odd and has only run on turf once. She may handle it fine but a few questions there given the price.
3.20 – Brighton
Lunar Deity- 1 point win – 16/1 (BFred/BV) 14/1 (general) Bugger, all that effort and now a non runner…
A bit of a punt here but this one looks very very interesting to my eyes at the prices. He caught my eye using the geegeez instant expert tab as being suited to all race conditions and being rather well handicapped. For his previous trainer he was winning C4 turf handicaps, on rain softened ground, off marks in the high 70s- his last turf win of 77. He runs off 69 here with the claim. Stuart Williams got him and appeared to focus attention on the All-Weather where he did well. On his first turf start for Williams he was OR82. On his final turf start for him, before a lucrative AW campaign he was OR74. Due to his AW exploits the next time he appeared on turf he was OR96- and racing in hot class 2s. He has also run plenty of times at tracks that don’t necessarily suit- well getting outpaces over 7f and trying to come from behind at the likes of Goodwood and Newamarket’s July course is a challenge. There is the odd good flat run for this trainer also. So the horse is well handicapped and conditions are fine, indeed he is 1/2 over course and distance. He had a break before his last run where he was too keen and faded. His AW form this year shows his ability remains and given his past turf form you can’t say he doesn’t act on it. There looks to be quite a bit of pace on paper in this race also. Maybe an EW bet would be advised but I have backed him to win in my usual foolhardy manner. He just caught the eye at a very nice price. I may be wide of the mark, but it could be that this decent pot has been the plan….
4.10 Ponte- Flowing Clarets (any odds) * UP
*apologies for late posting. I failed to save the system rules correctly, omitting ‘2016’ which meant they didn’t appear. This is the first one of the month.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
4.40 Ponte – Chiswick Bey (9/1<) 2nd 5/1
5.20 Yarm- The Ducking Stool (10/1<) UP
That will be all for today. Quite a busy one really. Let’s hope some of the above can run with credit!
Good Luck (we will need plenty)
p.s There are some updated Sprint notes in the Free Reports/Systems tab, or on home page, top right hand corner.