FREE DAILY POST: 02/08/16 (COMPLETE)

An 11/1 Tip in the 8.05 Notts and three of interest in the Sprint Handicap Testing Zone…

‘TIPS’ SUMMARY:-

A Stats/Angles of Interest tip in the 8.05 Nottingham and three ‘tips’ in the Sprint Handicap Testing Zone (two in the 3.15 Catt, and one in the 3.00 Salisbury) 

 

 

My ‘quick’ Video Tour of the blog incase you missed it 🙂

Onto business…

 

TIPS

None. A few days off for the jumping boys and I don’t think there are any mid week sprint handicap trends races, so it could be a quiet week until Saturday. In this section anyway.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total… +16.5 points)

8.05 Nottingham

Sunscape – 1 point win – 11/1 (SkyB/BV) 10/1 General

This front runner/pace pusher looks interesting dropping back down to the distance she won her maiden over, and with the same jockey as that day back up in the plate. The ‘way in’ was the trainer’s handicap stats here- 8/27,10 places in the last 5 years and all his runners are 5/12 here in the last year. Hughie Morrison is also in superb form at the moment- 5/25 the last 14 days, 10/40 the last 30 days. He is also 5/19,9 p in flat/AW handicaps when Murphy is booked, 4/11,7 places in class 5 handicaps. The horse gets a hood for the first time, having been too keen over 10f. She usually likes to lead and get on with it. The Cox horse likes to push the pace also but is a bit out of form based on those last two runs. Ours will either lead or be in the right place to pounce when the Cox horse fades. All in all, given the trainer/jockey stats, the jockey booking,the hood, the pace, the drop back down in trip (she has led her races until the final 2/3 furlongs on recent runs, before fading quickly-a combination of too far and pulling too hard) I thought this one looked interesting at a double figure price. Hopefully she can kick a few lengths clear turning in and cling on all the way to the line. I don’t think she should be the outsider of the field here, esp as she should have track position on a lot of these. Hopefully she can race at her own pace near the front, settled. If that is the case we should have some fun with this one.

That is all for this section on Tuesday.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None. August Trainers post is on the home page if you missed it, or in the Free Reports/Systems tab.

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.45 Catt: Dominada (16/1<)

5.00 Salis: Hereawi (any odds)

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

3.15 Catt

Compton River – 2 points win – 11/2 (SJ) 5/1 (general) WON 5/1 (+10 points horse) (+8 points race)

Loumarin – 2 points win – 11/2 (SJ) 5/1 (general) (UP)

*a decent run from Compton River, the win clearly doing him the world of good and he took another step forward here. He was able to lead throughout pretty much which surprised me and was never in doubt from 1-2 furlongs out to my eyes. He found plenty. Loumarin- never looked happy in truth. Maybe it was all happening too quickly and she didn’t like the track.  Back to Nottingham maybe. Horsforth- well my initial betting was 1 pt EW Compton, and 1pt EW Horseforth – I think I have made more with the approach above – she has ran well actually and the blinkers/trainers touch have worked – a decent third. Thankfully she didn’t win! But, if my logic was that she was as likely to fade as to win, I would have ended up betting win only anyway I suspect. Got that wrong. A near perfect race/analysis, but I will take that 🙂 (having said that, I wasn’t that close to the second placed horse!- jockey stats of 2/64 or so put me off a tad) 

Well I have lost count of the number of times I have changed my mind here- the horses, the staking amount etc etc which may not be a good sign but I have concluded that one of these two is winning and 5/1 general is actually still a decent enough price for them both in the context of this race.

Compton River- well he took an age to get his head in front but did so LTO. It may not have been the strongest race but he did come wide down the outside to make his challenge and that can be marked up. He is only 4 and some horses can respond for finally winning, building on it. He won LTO which is more than can be said for a lot in here and he is also 0/5, 4 places over CD. I could have 1pt EW the pair but that doesn’t feel right at 5s and I would rather be a bit more cavalier. 5s looks decent enough to me.

Loumarin – She ran well enough LTO where the pace setters didn’t really come back. That was a decent enough C5 and she drops into a not as decent c6 here. She is well drawn also for this CD and the trainer does well at the track, and with the jockey here in handicaps. She has also dropped a further 3lb. That run shows that turf is fine and having won off 63 on the All-Weather, she could be able to strike now from around this mark. This is only her 10th flat turf start also.

Both of their profiles looked interesting in a race where plenty struggle to win that often and a couple have many more miles on the clock. The PACE is also intriguing as there appears to be plenty of it on paper. They won’t be hanging around here and while it won’t quite be like the Singuer race when we last played here, it looks like it will set up for one ridden more patiently. Both of these two should just sit off the pace and pounce entering the final furlong. In theory.

Horsforth – 3rd 14s>10s – at 14s was the one that I deliberated over for a time- She has changed trainer and has 1st time blinkers on. She is dropping down the weights having been OR75 once, now 57, but that is maybe some indication of her form. She travelled well in the Compton River race LTO, hitting the front at some point before fading tamely. I thought maybe the blinkers may help in that regard. But then, the 1st time visor didn’t do too much and Tony Coyle is no mug. I kind of thought if he struggled with her then she is clearly tricky. She is well drawn also and did look interesting. It won’t be a pleasant feeling if she wins- but I concluded she has been a weak finishers, and previous headgear hasn’t helped with that. Trainer is 2/11 with newcomers from other yards in last 2 years also. That was noted down.  I suspect they will find a race at some point and the trainer is known for being good with fillies. But, I concluded this looks like a race for one of the top two.

There are others you can give mentions to but they all have some sort of question. Windforpower is now 0/17,7 p over CD but gets his conditions again. He may run a decent race but is now open to attach from those progressive types. Under Approval looks to have a ratings ceiling and is one for the tracker- 0/17,1p OR 51-60, 0/9,3p in band above that- before claims are considered. A decent record when dropping below OR50, having gone in twice this year. His form also ties in with Compton on a run a few starts ago and whereas he got 13lbs that day I believe (when adding up claims etc) he only gets 6lb here. Men United is interesting and may try and blast out- I thought other front runners may ensure they all do too much and fade. He would have been more interesting if the only pace angle in the race. The drop to 5f looks interesting. No dismissed lightly.

There are others who win every now and then and an Tim Easterby horse who is very lightly raced but needs more. It looks a decent enough race but with any luck one of the top two, in form, open-to-progress horses can take this.

 

4.15 – I will leave this alone. Don’t think I want to be taking on the top 2/3 but at same time don’t want to be with any of them either.

 

3.00 Salis –

Tagula Night – 6/1 – 1.5 point win* UP (-1.5 points on race) (+6.5 points on the day) 

*Hmmm. Maybe the old boy has had enough and has just regressed. LEARNING POINT…which wasn’t anywhere near the front of my mind- when it is Soft at Salisbury they dart to the near side. tick. He was left marooned up the middle for most of the race- even 4/5 off the rail looked to be prohibitive. I don’t want to use that as much of an excuse though. He just wasn’t good enough on the day and the winner had an unexposed profile. The Harris horse who came second is worth marking up I think VINCENTTI he was out the back and switched around horses, and came up the middle (worst/softest bit?) and ran a cracker to get that close really. The yard is in form, the rains have arrived and would be no shock were he to pick up a soft ground handicap in next couple of weeks. 

This one looks worth a go for the in form Dean Ivory. The fav does look solid, albeit the 40 days is a tad off-putting but if he repeats any of his C2 form for Fahey may be hard to beat. But he is beatable. It is eye-catching that Robert Winston gets on board for the first time this season. Last September this horse was running off marks in the mid 80s and that 3L 4th at Donny in a C3 was a decent indication that some ability still remains. Soft ground is fine and he is a well drawn prominent racer who has ran well at the track before. He also drops into C5 for the first time in a long time. There are plenty of indications there which suggest we may be about to see his best performance of the season. He is 10, in a race full of horses open to some progress, and it could be that ‘the legs have gone’- The break is also interesting. Maybe a problem, albeit he has a decent enough record after breaks of certain lengths so maybe another indication that today is the day. So, not one to go mad on by any means but he is smart at his best, has the joint best speed figure in the race and you wouldn’t be shocked if he blew them away. He should be able to race on the front end, or lead. He could be quicker than others who like to get on with it. In any case I can’t see an excuse on the race set-up front.

Of the rest – well Boy In Bar has decent old form but does need to show it and bounce back for new connections. He faded LTO suggesting he may have needed the run but another break of 40 days raises questions. He has had 3 long enough breaks now for Williams between recent runs and I don’t know what to think about that. It would put be off lumping on at 3s I think. Candy has an unexposed one but he isn’t a prolific trainer of handicap debutant winners and the Charlton horse has questions to answer, albeit lightly raced. A few of the others don’t look good enough if the fav, and Tagula Night, run up to their best. Which, they may not do of course.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None today.

***

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

27 Responses

    1. yep, so glad I had that last minute treble on, just off to the Bahamas haha. Mad, I can’t remember a trainer having such a day! I wonder how they have done in the yard, if anyone had a nibble etc. Amazing.

      1. Re- EJH treble……many years ago there used to be gamblers who looked for horses running from the same stable in close proximity timings…….at different meetings…This before the advent of comps etc. many big wins took place by yards….. many losers of course and it took a leap of fate if you were having an old 1s/6p scraper [lol] but it wasn’t as uncommon as now when the bookies watch like a hawk. It’s good to see a yard stuff the big books..
        But you would have thought she’d have let our club know Josh…..pity..imagine our gang on the beaches of the Bahamas sipping Guinness and champagne cocktails…lol. Cheers all.

        1. haha quite – was odd as there wasn’t exactly any money for them. String clearly going well and maybe these horses fed off the good vibes in the yard. I should think a couple may have surprised them. Well, the Kempton winner made perfect sense in a shocker of a race (won a seller before,then jumps race,back at Kempton, first time blinkers and front ran in seller-not much other pace in race,got to front,dictated-made perfect sense when I looked at race after!!), and Goring had bits and pieces and set up for a closer. But, she may have a few more go in now- horses do feed of positive vibes in the yard and suspect it was a happy place last night/this morning.

  1. Good luck with yours Josh although personally I really like Lawyer tomorrow (although as I type Morrison gets another winner). Has been racing competitvely in better company on ground which has been arguably a shade fast so the rain forcast should help. Makin back on board (1/2, 2 places on the flat) is a bonus. Is 1/3, 2 places in Class 5 handicaps on the flat worth less than £3.5k (and 3/6, 4 places including AW). Still 7lbs below his highest winning mark (and went close in a class 2 off 8lbs higher last year also). Barron could be in better form but had a winner today. Other 2 I like are Loumarin in the 15:15 at Catterick and Welliesinthewater in the 19:20 at Chelmsford City. Ironically I am hoping the latter does something simular as you’re hoping Sunscape does in a race with not a lot of obvious front runners from a plum draw. Just wish there was a more experienced jockey on board.

    1. Good Luck Nick, market would suggest you may have found the winner – as yours comes in and mind is taking a micro/weakish walk at the moment. Can see his chance and 5s was decent enough. He can be held up or race close to the pace, I am hoping for the former- albeit at his very best he is better than most of these. He has been kept busy enough though so I will cling to a fading hope that mine can still make all!

  2. Loumarin is off my watching list, but it’s already into 6s from 9s….3.15 Catterick. I’m loathe to do it now…..9s was value….6s isn’t. Quandry??

    That’s a killer when a treble goes in like that……’Cos your not in the loop…..but I’m already off to the Bahamas from previous wins Josh….[fibber] lol

    1. Hi Tony, just read this – having looked at 3.15 from fresh, not knowing his price, I thought 5s was fair in the context of this race/his chance. 9s would have been nice- can’t believe he was ever that big. Damn. But, value a funny thing and does depend on when you look at the races etc.

      1. That 9/1 would have been before the NR which would have taken 10p off. When I added him to my shortlist he was 8s although only got 7s by the time I actually had a bet. I think 11/2-6/1 still just about value. The one I may regret not backing is Boy in a Bar who was 12/1 last night (and only a 10p R4 I believe from the 3 NRs) but couldn’t back him for the same reasons you mentioned above.

  3. Morning all.

    I talked myself out of a bet earlier on Sunscape but your excellent analysis has made me have a bit of a rethink.

    3:00 – Salisbury – Tagula Night is so well handicapped at the moment I can’t let him go unbacked today and he can win a race like this when all the card fall right.. might want more juice in the ground but 8/1 is a decent price and the trainer/jockey form can hardly be better.

    Have had a saver on the Eve Johnston-Houghton three year old In Haste been off for over 400 days but I don’t think he will lack for fitness today, was a close up 2nd on his debut last year. Looks on a workable handicap mark on the form of his Goodwood maiden win as a two year old. Trainer is 1/2 with handicap debutants at Salisbury in the past 5 years – 12/1

    As for the rest not much really floated my boat, as i said earlier I really had a good look at the Hughie Morrison horse at Nottingham and might still have a bet. Danish Duke would be a bet in the 4:15 at Catterick but I think he need softer ground to be at his best and I have paseed him over for now.

    My other bet is from the Edward Lynam August sprinter micro system I posted yesterday.

    6:25 – Future Icon – 4/1 – not a great price but is just about value!

    Good luck to all.

    1. Yep the market is suggesting that it may bea point wasted but given all of the above, i just couldn’t resist a go at that price. She is drifting though, and others being well backed. Feels like I know my fate but you never know !

    2. Future Icon was finishing well but could only finish 5th… Cork may have been plenty sharp enough for him, given his two wins have come at the more stiffer Naas 2/5 4 places at that track.

    1. Haha, I won’t Boom 5/1 shots but he did that well! 🙂 I think that day gets back the losses from the sprint trip to Scotland the other day!

  4. Terrific call Josh…. Compton River pulled my other one out….

    Vincenti…….Harris’s horses have been going in lately against the book…i’ll note

    Cheers Josh.

    1. Super Steve! Glad I checked the comments quickly there- had to have a little nibble at 4s. Pays for my trip to the cinema tonight anyway. Cheers!

      1. Ah glad you got on Josh sorry for the late post was out early this morning and just realised in time enjoy the cinema

    2. Yep Steve…. got a slight variant on that micro system and Danish Duke was a qualifier but only had a 1/2pt on in the end rather than more… trying to second guess the going was stupid and just shows go to show if you have a system you have to back come what may to level stakes, Oh well a wins’s a win 🙂

  5. Well done on your winner today Josh. I wouldn’t lose hope completely with Tagula Night. I personally didn’t think today was going to be the day since the only other 2 times he has had cheek pieces on he has finished 12/12 and 10/12 including his worst run this season on arguably his favourite ground so in that context 4th wasn’t bad. Hopefully we will see him on good/soft to soft ground again particularly at a track which favour prominent runners and the visor returned. He seems to so best in August/September so its the right time.

    1. yep I would concur with that as I sit here pondering – I did note down his record in that headgear, now 0/7, 0 places…was ‘only’ 0/2,0 places in handicaps I thought so thought I would chance it. Maybe the 45 day break, and this run, was to tee him up in next few weeks. He was weak enough in the market also. One to watch. Plenty of weak sprint handicaps about!

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