(there is a qualifier today posted in today’s Free Daily Post)
I started following Dean Ivory last year I think. I can’t remember if I posted them or was tracking him but he was mentioned on these pages.
Anyway, he appears to peak his string during August and he continues that into September.
- Dean Ivory
- Handicaps (both Flat Turf and All-Weather)
- 5-7.5 furlongs Only
- Horse Aged 2-4 only
- 16/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/13, 3 places above this)
This looks a solid approach especially when looking at some of the other stats…
- With the same rules, excluding these months (and July which does ok also) you get: 28/229,78 places… -29 SP …AE 0.81
- With horses aged 5+ : 2/33, 8 places… -19 SP … AE 0.54
- I have obviously looked at distance/age separately, going back to a ‘starter set’ each time but with his horses aged 2-4, over 1m or further… 5/39, 16 places… -16… AE 0.89. He will clearly have winners over further and the places is decent enough. But so far not enough have got their heads in front to justify backing them systematically.
- The august/Sept split is near identical…
- August: 14/35, 18 places… +82 SP
- September: 12/42, 18 places… +72 SP
- He hasn’t had many go off over 16/1 and a couple of biggies have placed so that odds cap is a guide. Maybe one will go in but it may be best looking at those on a horse by horse basis, more so with the ones more fancied.
A repeat of 2015 would be very very welcome! Time will tell…
Fahey has quite a big stats pool to dive into, as you would expect. I think I have successfully homed in how best to reduce the number of bets and improve profits. We shall see…
- Richard Fahey
- Flat Turf Handicaps
- 5-7 furlongs
- 3-4 Runs in previous 90 days ONLY
- 2yo only and 3yo+ handicaps (NOT 3yo only handicaps,or 4yo+ handicaps)
- ANY Odds (more on that below)
Fahey’s string appear to come alive in this month when ticking these boxes. I have pulled this one apart in its various directions and it is clear to me that these angles are the place to focus. His record in 3yo only handicaps has been poor, as it has beyond 7 furlongs and those that have had fewer or more than 3-4 runs in the past 90 days. Clearly there will be winners outside of this system but they have been impossible to profit from systematically so far. His record with these runners is far superior in August than any other month. There are also a manageable number of bets.
I do know there are a few HRB users out there and you may wish to dive into it and have a look. I don’t think it can be improved but you never know!
- ODDS: 18/1 or over is 2/28, 8 places… the winners have been decent prices and enough have gone close to back them all I think, esp EW. I don’t want to miss out on a big priced one here.
- CLASS: Those running at C4 or below have a solid 34% SR. Those running at C3/2 are around the 16% SR, +80 SP profit. They win less often but are worth following, profit wise.
- ALL-WEATHER: He has only had 5 runners on the AW, 1 placing. I will post such qualifiers, esp with Newcastle now on the roster. Fahey did well there on the turf track and it may be the same on the sand.
That will do for August. Two decent trainers to go to war with. History is never a guarantee of success so time will tell. These look like solid systems to me and it would be disappointing if they both under performed.