AUGUST TRAINERS
DEAN IVORY
(there is a qualifier today posted in today’s Free Daily Post)
I started following Dean Ivory last year I think. I can’t remember if I posted them or was tracking him but he was mentioned on these pages.
Anyway, he appears to peak his string during August and he continues that into September.
So…
- Dean Ivory
- Handicaps (both Flat Turf and All-Weather)
- August-September
- 5-7.5 furlongs Only
- Horse Aged 2-4 only
- 16/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/13, 3 places above this)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 78 | 26 | 33.33 | 152.05 | 37 | 194.94 | 207.18 | 41.26 | 2.45 |
| 2015 | 12 | 6 | 50 | 38.75 | 7 | 322.92 | 48.54 | 10.8 | 3.41 |
| 2014 | 11 | 2 | 18.18 | 7 | 4 | 63.64 | 8.79 | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| 2013 | 14 | 5 | 35.71 | 32 | 8 | 228.57 | 53.28 | 12.43 | 2.67 |
| 2012 | 7 | 3 | 42.86 | 7.8 | 4 | 111.43 | 9.04 | 1.81 | 2.46 |
| 2011 | 13 | 4 | 30.77 | 23.5 | 6 | 180.77 | 24.44 | 5.37 | 2.53 |
| 2010 | 21 | 6 | 28.57 | 43 | 8 | 204.76 | 63.08 | 9.53 | 2.26 |
This looks a solid approach especially when looking at some of the other stats…
- With the same rules, excluding these months (and July which does ok also) you get: 28/229,78 places… -29 SP …AE 0.81
- With horses aged 5+ : 2/33, 8 places… -19 SP … AE 0.54
- I have obviously looked at distance/age separately, going back to a ‘starter set’ each time but with his horses aged 2-4, over 1m or further… 5/39, 16 places… -16… AE 0.89. He will clearly have winners over further and the places is decent enough. But so far not enough have got their heads in front to justify backing them systematically.
- The august/Sept split is near identical…
- August: 14/35, 18 places… +82 SP
- September: 12/42, 18 places… +72 SP
- He hasn’t had many go off over 16/1 and a couple of biggies have placed so that odds cap is a guide. Maybe one will go in but it may be best looking at those on a horse by horse basis, more so with the ones more fancied.
A repeat of 2015 would be very very welcome! Time will tell…
***
RICHARD FAHEY
Fahey has quite a big stats pool to dive into, as you would expect. I think I have successfully homed in how best to reduce the number of bets and improve profits. We shall see…
- Richard Fahey
- Flat Turf Handicaps
- 5-7 furlongs
- 3-4 Runs in previous 90 days ONLY
- 2yo only and 3yo+ handicaps (NOT 3yo only handicaps,or 4yo+ handicaps)
- ANY Odds (more on that below)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 157 | 38 | 24.2 | 140.55 | 71 | 89.52 | 199.23 | 67.9 | 1.82 |
| 2015 | 44 | 14 | 31.82 | 52.88 | 22 | 120.18 | 65.02 | 19.4 | 2.15 |
| 2014 | 36 | 10 | 27.78 | 25.71 | 24 | 71.42 | 35.94 | 36.74 | 1.78 |
| 2013 | 30 | 4 | 13.33 | -3.75 | 7 | -12.5 | -0.64 | -1.33 | 1.15 |
| 2012 | 31 | 7 | 22.58 | 68.88 | 11 | 222.19 | 101.43 | 9.98 | 1.96 |
| 2011 | 16 | 3 | 18.75 | -3.17 | 7 | -19.81 | -2.52 | 3.11 | 1.76 |
Fahey’s string appear to come alive in this month when ticking these boxes. I have pulled this one apart in its various directions and it is clear to me that these angles are the place to focus. His record in 3yo only handicaps has been poor, as it has beyond 7 furlongs and those that have had fewer or more than 3-4 runs in the past 90 days. Clearly there will be winners outside of this system but they have been impossible to profit from systematically so far. His record with these runners is far superior in August than any other month. There are also a manageable number of bets.
I do know there are a few HRB users out there and you may wish to dive into it and have a look. I don’t think it can be improved but you never know!
- ODDS: 18/1 or over is 2/28, 8 places… the winners have been decent prices and enough have gone close to back them all I think, esp EW. I don’t want to miss out on a big priced one here.
- CLASS: Those running at C4 or below have a solid 34% SR. Those running at C3/2 are around the 16% SR, +80 SP profit. They win less often but are worth following, profit wise.
- ALL-WEATHER: He has only had 5 runners on the AW, 1 placing. I will post such qualifiers, esp with Newcastle now on the roster. Fahey did well there on the turf track and it may be the same on the sand.
That will do for August. Two decent trainers to go to war with. History is never a guarantee of success so time will tell. These look like solid systems to me and it would be disappointing if they both under performed.
28 Responses
Obviously that will change over the next 2 months but Ivory is absolutely smoking hot at the moment. Interestingly does it make a difference if Winston is on board or not since it seems this season most of Ivory’s wins are coming with that combo.
Hi Nick… surprisingly Winston is only 5/7 on his runners. He has had loads of other jockeys win for him. 3/4 last season. That may increase this year as he does look the main jockey now – his mounts would increase confidence, as opposed to be put off if another jockey is on top. Interesting how that plays out this year.
Hi Josh / Guys
Just looking further at the Jockeys D Ivory uses R. Winston certainly rides the bulk and over the last 4 years this has increased. looking at certain tracks namely Chelmsford City, Epsom, Haydock, Leicester, Newmarket (July) course, Salisbury, Windsor, Wolverhampton, York he has a healthy 31.53% S/R on all mounts with a 45.05% place S/R +106.07
Another small angle is when he uses Pat Cosgrave at Wolverhampton & Newmarket (Rowley) 11 rides 6 wins 8 places +14.58
Steve
I would look at these riders for Dean Ivory it may improve the system for this year with the jockey’s available
S/R with these 4 is 60% and P&L around 70pts for this period for this year i reckon around 10 bets and 70% S/R
Cosgrave, Pat Crowley, Jim Morris, Luke Winston, Robert
sorry wrote that wrong jockey’s should be
Pat Cosgrove
Luke Morris
Jim Crowley
Robert Winston
Hi Josh on the R Fahey stats you say
“His record in 3yo only handicaps has been poor, as it has beyond 7 furlongs”
This seems to contradict “2yo only and 3yo+ only handicaps”
or am i missing something
George
Hi George, that may be my poor use of words… so basically NOT 3yo only and 4yo+ handicaps. His record in handicaps open to just 3 year olds – so 3 year old only handicaps – is poor within this angle, and when going back to starter set – 1/32 or something. so, the angle looks at handicap races for 2 year olds only (‘nurseries’) and handicaps open to horses aged 3 and older, so 3yo+ handicaps.
Excellent stuff as ever Josh
My one bet of the day is likely to be on Stake Acclaim in the 7:30 for Dean Ivory – Robert Winston is 2/5 with the trainer in handicaps between 5f & 6f – but the I will probably wait till later in the day to decide to bet or not, due to the weather.
I hope this is the right place. Thought I would repost a couple of micro systems that went missing after the site was changed on Saturday and also add a 3rd one for you all
A couple of all weather micro systems:
Trainer:Sir Michael Stoute
Race Code – All weather
Sire: Dansili
18 wins 51 bets 35% +38.3 A/E 1.46 36 places 70% +55.72
Not many bets but a good one!
Trainer & Jockey : Sir Michael Stoute & Ryan Moore
Race Code: All weather
Last Time Out Position: 2nd
21 wins 35 bets 60% +35.37 A/E 1.60 30 places 86%
Finally, my personal favourite at the moment. Lat 10 form figures 121 201 1211
Owner: Al Shaqab Racing
Country: UK only
Group 1, Group 2 and Group 2 only
21 wins 59 bets 36% +98.31 A/E 1.76 33 places 56% +116.30
Good luck everyone
Group 1, 2 & 3 for Al Shaqab
Good stuff John – yep this looks like the right place to post them- if you post any systems stuff under this August Trainers post, it will be accessible under the Free Reports/Systems tab – rather than them getting lost in daily comments on a Free Daily Post etc.
Excellent 🙂
Also Like
P Kirby 7/4 54% +28
K Dalglish 25/8 32% +30
I Furtado 4/3 75% +10
All stats for 2015 only
Will watch those trainers with interest…. As you mentioned Ivan Furtado watch out for one of his on its’ next run – Bushephalus – A terrible wide trip at Lingfield last time out and did well to get 3rd at the finish. Looks handicapped to win when the trainer gets back in the winning grrove.
Website is looking good Josh.
cheers Steve. Yep. it is much improved I think! Much easier to build on/modify moving forwards now also! Glad you approve 🙂
Just watched Captain Power win fro Eddie Lynam at Naas and although my trainer micro systems have been a bit and miss over the Irish Sea, more miss than hit I must say!
Here’s a possible one for August. Again a fairly simple one and focuses on the Edward Lynam sprinters
Trainer Edward Lynam
Race Code: Turf & All Weather
Month: August
Distance 5f & 6f
Days since Last run: Within 45
Since 2011 – 11 wins 42 bets 26% +81.88 A/E 1.64 21 places 50 + 101.28 – Betting to Betfair SP is a “mouthwatering” + 264.51
That’s a great micro one John…..I’ve been easing on my own as this year they’ve all down about 15% on normal. First time in about 6 years…so whether it’s the wet summer….I just don’t know. I’m slowly re-evaluating them before putting any up, but cheers for this one.
Mine have been ‘hit and miss’ this season too so you could have a point in regard to the weather. I have I think got about six that are still live or going live and another six or so in testing.
I really like this site Josh…very posh…I even wiped my feet and took my hat off before reading further…lol.
Haha, that made me smile. Cheers Tony. It needed tidying up in truth!
We shall see, good luck everyone. I could do with one or two systems that go well.
Some of them look ”back posted”, in that they fit winning past results as per what certain tipping services try to sell us. I like Eddie Lynam in August.
yep you and me both. I don’t believe they are back-fitted. Firstly there is logic to all of the rules, separately and collectively. They all stand out as separate rules, when you strip it back and build it back up from the various different starting points. Time will tell whether they are an accurate predictor. But, given some performances, maybe I need to go back to system building school.
hello gentlemen Dean Ivory has just the 2 runners tomorrow 1 at salisbury which doesnt fit the system at the horse is 10 years old but the other runner is at nottingham in the very last race and in both runners they are Robert Winstons only mounts at the sed tracks both for Dean Ivory interesting to say the least
300 SALISBURY TAGULA NIGHT
835 NOTTINGHAM DORS LAW
Both systems look good Josh, I really like the look of the Ivory system and will be having 2 points a go on his qualifiers lol
I have a system for A.month Balding that might find some winners?
A.m Balding
August
Hcaps/non Hcaps & maidens
12/1 or less
GB bred horses
2yo 3yo+
6f-1m2f
Prize £4000-£21000
H-run 90 days 0-4
Also thanks John I’ve added your systems into hrb, can’t find al shaqab unfortunately! tho!
hi James.. great stuff mate.
The only slight downside to HRB its the lack of data on owners
The Al Shaqab micro system is very easy to check but I will put up any qualifiers on here from the system
It may be worth sending an email to Chris and the team. That ‘owners’ box is expanding and I should think they would consider adding them in if possible.
Yeah I have been meaning too but just keep forgetting haha
I forgot one of the rules for the balding system I posted, distance move- between down 1f and up 1f. Never thought about emailing Chris at hrb, I will have to do that and ask him if he could add Al shaqab and the Rooney’s.