Below is a link to some ‘Sprint Handicap Zone Notes’. In part these are for my own benefit as I try and improve, but hopefully they provide something of interest for you to read. For each race I have tipped in I reflect on the reasons for the tip, reflections on the race/result, a discussion of the winner – in sense of highlighting positives/why they won – in an attempt to learn for the future, and then ‘race notes’ – watching the video multiple times, looking at how the race panned out etc, looking to see what horses caught the eye and may be worth keeping at eye on moving forward. I haven’t really done something like this before but in theory this kind of reflection should help me improve, esp with race reading… (you are welcome to add relevant horses to trackers – and given my inadequacies in that area sometimes, that may benefit us all!)
I thought I would use a couple of angles from my newmarket notes (link below) to have a look at the 3.45. I nearly put both of these in the ‘stats/angles of interest’ section but it is a 3yo only handicap,and both horses were underwhelming LTO -so I suppose I have bottled it. The stats suggest they may both go close…
Light Music 12/1- goes for Haggas here and ignoring my notes for a moment he is 7/32,13 places with handicap debutants at Newmarket (feeling that may be across both tracks though) He is also in-form 7/26,13 places last 14 days. The horse ran at Royal Ascot LTO- such horses turning up here n handicaps with 2/5 career wins to their name are 10/51, 15 places… +46 SP, +68 BFSP. Those running in a handicap here, but a non-handicap at RA are 3/14,5 places..+ 4 (those stats relate to horses sent off 16/1 or shorter at Newmarket – RA runners going off 18/1+ are 0/27,2 places to date, in handicaps). So, on paper, she has a bit going for her. On the negative, Haggas ‘only’ 1/26 here, 6 places, in last 5 seasons. Moore is up which is also a positive and this won’t be as hot as the last race
Strong Challenge 12/1 – trainer in form, he is 2/7,5 places +4 in C2 races here in last 5 meetings. Those of his running at same class or dropping in class from LTO are 4/10,6 places… +13 SP. This one is running at the same class. He was poor LTO and I don’t know why, which is a bit off-putting. But given all of the above a bounce back would not surprise. Both are also on the right side of the track for what pace there is I think.
(Scrutineer for Channon would qualify on a few RA LTO angles if going off 16/1<)
If I was at the track I would back both of these EW for interest. As I am not I may have 1/4 point on (£5 for me) just for ‘fun’.
If you want to get hold of more stats like that, plus the main micro systems, there is the link below…
(ClickBank will email you a link to the download as part of the receipt. You have 60 days to get your money back – you have nothing to lose – try them out, see if they help, and if you want your money back no problem at all)
Meehan Maidens (any odds- needs a winner or two!)
6.30 Newb – Moi Moi Moi – UP
7.00 Newb – Stop The Wages – UP
8.05 Newb – Alaskan Breeze NR
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
2.30 Carl – Sattelac (15/2<) DNQ
3.00 Carl – Forever A Lady (15/2<) 2nd 4/1>2/1
5.15 Carl – Tectonic (15/2<) DNQ 3rd 25/1
(KDs overall record with those 8/1+ in handicaps here is poor,1/50 odd,but 13 places or so and he had a 20/1+ very nearly win – so by all means if you use the systems as a guide for further analysis that may be worth bearing in mind)
7.10 Epsom – Powderhorn (any odds) UP
8.50 Epsom – Plagiarism (any odds) UP
7.30 Newb – Dubais Secret DNQ WON 10/1 / Torch DNQ 3rd 8/1 (another winner above the price guide. Stats before tonight, with those 132-20/1 were 3/43,12 places.. AE 0.85 – in 2014 Hannon was 0/16 with the bigger priced ones but the odd one starting to go in now. Something to track but looking like very much a guide. I will re-evaluate at end of season. He has yet to have an official qualifier yet, but has now had a 10/1 and 20/1 winner in recent meetings.)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Despite the amount of racing nothing really stands out- (I have’t looked at my TTP guide in depth today- so you users may spot something -share away if you do!) I have plenty to attack with my notes at Newmarket and I will share a couple of angles/one race below in a momement. But I was just put off making them bets in this section.
I also left +18 points on my notepad yesterday – very annoying. The two horses most prominent were Mister Royal for Ellison (10/1>4/1 – won) – way in? … 4/11,7 places at Catt with stable newcomers. No green in form indicators for yard but he’d had a few go well, including 16/1 shot Ponte which stuck in my mind. He also had solid stats with all cappers at track, as per my TTP guide. What put me off? The 300+ day break against a load of race fit horses, and less than inspiring form – but for old connections. View was that if there was money he would be interesting, which there was. I didn’t back him.
The other – Baker/Cosgrave 3/7,5 places when teaming up at Yarmouth. Horse stepping up in trip – looked needed – could come on from last run, first of season/first for yard. Heyman – won. Was 8s when I looked. Am more annoyed about this one than the former. Race looked a bit open to me with a strong fav. Trainer in ok enough form but not green symbols – were they there it may have tipped me over edge. In time, had there been 40+ points in bank say, I may have fired both the bullets but I clearly wasn’t confident enough to back them.
Still, a good advertisement for GEEGEEZ GOLD – You could give it ago HERE>>> 🙂 (and their stats reports in particular on this occasion)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Running total: 0/6, 0 places = -12 points
Quick reflections on Wednesday…
Horse UP- Always a risk from the box draw that there would be no room but worth the chance I think at the odds- got no daylight at all so a line through that run. One for the tracker as was travelling well when attempting some kind of run a couple of furlongs out,albeit maybe too far out. She will go in again at Bath, over 5f, at some point. Hopefully at a price.
The winner, 25/1 shot… well I can see why some may have backed it. 0/6,0 places in career, all on AW, but a couple of promising runs. First run on turf, so doing something different, and clearly few miles on the clock. Was first run in 223 days. Headgear off. Trainer in form, a green ’14’ on geegeez, 3/15 last 14 days and he was 6/26,10 places at the track in handicaps in last 730 days. And had G Wood booked and he is a tidy little jockey well worth the claim who has been seen to good effect. Now just to put those pieces of the jigsaw together pre race!! Given all of that 25s would have allowed you to overlook a few things, namely fitness/first turf run. Shame I didn’t. Guilty of seeing 0/6,0 places, 200+ days off and ignoring. Work to do! Will give the video a good watch a few times to see if any other ‘unlucky/poor ridden’ horses.
NONE today. Quite a few smaller fields and many races with plenty of unexposed types in – that statement s applicable to quite a bit of the racing today, as well as the usual mix of races I don’t like playing in too often.