Members Report: 5/7/16 (COMPLETE)

NEWMARKET JULY MEETING: NOTES AND STATS

I have just sent 16 pages of notes/stats for this week’s Newmarket meeting to Donations Club Members and I am making them available for blog readers for just £5 (via clickbank,+VAT,so £6) 

Inside you can find:-

  • Detailed notes on all those trainers with 4 or more winners during the previous 5 meetings: Fahey/Johnston/Gosden/Bin Suroor/R Hannon/Sir Michael Stoute/Charlie Hills 
  • There are 3 main ‘micro systems’ for Fahey (9/29,15 places…+82 BFSP) / Johnston (7/21, 9 places…+33 BFSP) / Gosden (6/18,10 places…+18 BFSP) The same approach to Royal Ascot helped micro system followers net +11 points. 
  • There are also some decent micro ‘angles’ for Bin Suroor, Stoute and Hills.
  • Finally, I have looked at stats relating to horses that ran at Royal Ascot Last Time Out. There are some fascinating angles there including one angle for handicappers that is 5/8, 5 places +49 SP in the last few seasons. Exciting. 

As always the aim is to help you find some decent priced winners, to make some profits and to enjoy your racing.

I am starting to like this approach to these meetings. It doesn’t work all the time but Punchestown, Aintree and Royal Ascot have given clear indications that this has potential to be a very profitable way forward – especially over the course of a season. 

You can get your hand on these notes at the link below, for £5. I think this is a potential bargain, but why not judge for yourself…

 

GET YOUR NOTES/STATS NOW, HERE>>>

(ClickBank will email you a link to the download as part of the receipt. You have 60 days to get your money back – you have nothing to lose – try them out, see if they help, and if you want your money back no problem at all) 

 

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TIPS

None. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

7.20 Uttox – The Yank (14/1<) DNQ (3rd 20/1)

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.40 Ponte – Ballymore Castle (9/1<) DNQ

7.10 Bright – African Showgirl (any odds) 2nd 28/1 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total +3 points) 

2.25  Wolvs – Langley Vale – 10/1 (general) -WON- Well, this one almost looks like a perfect ‘stats/angles of interest horse’ and indeed if every one I put up in this section had these characteristics I think we would do ok. Clearly that means I have put the mockers on this one’s chances and he will drop out the back of the tv, but you will hopefully agree that on paper at least, he stands out…

The trainer is 6/20,9 places with all runners here in recent years, and this is the horses first run at the track (an unknown,maybe a negative but trainer record gives encouragement) He is 1/1 when teaming up with this jockey, who has never ridden the horse. On the geegeez IE win tab he stands out as one of the few with a decent wins to runs ratio on the all-weather and in class 6, and with winning form over the trip. Indeed he is 1/1 in class 6 handicaps and hasn’t dropped to this level for some time. 3 starts ago, on the AW, making his return after 200+ days, he was rated OR71. He is now OR60. That is some drop in a short space of time. Indeed his last win was at Lingfield on the AW in 2014, and that reappearance this year was his only run since on the surface. The horse looks like he must go LH- now 4/15,6 places all handicaps going that way round – 0/13,2 places on straight tracks for example. He is a prominent racer who is drawn low. Tick. 2/6,3 places all handicaps on ‘standard’ – but this is a new surface for him. Having ran in cheekpieces for a number of runs he gets a first time visor here.  Finally, the trainer is in form – with the geegeez green symbols that I now give more prominence to. 2/3,3 places in last 14 days, 3/13,6 places last 30 days. 

All in all, for a 10/1 shot, he ticks plenty of boxes, is doing plenty differently and looks stand out at 10s. My gut says it all looks too good to be true. He is this price because he has been woefully out of form – and that may continue, but you can see why he could bounce back and a bold run would be no surprise. I have never got on too well on the AW, so we shall see! 

4.55 Wolvs – For Shia And Lula – 14/1 (Betfred/Tote/WH) UP

It looks like I can’t resist the AW today! This one also looks interesting at a price. The ‘way in’ – well my trawling through Geegeez Stats reports reveals that when the trainer and jockey team up her at Wolvs the are 3/6, 4 places. Clearly they don’t team up very often but you should take note when they do- and I have taken note. The horse… well he comes here off 62, 4 lb lower than when running in 3rd here over CD 4 starts ago in what is turning out to be a decent race – the 1st has won since, as has the second (twice) and the 6th,7th,8th have all won since also. SO, a strong race it would appear, on paper at least. His last win was in April last year off OR75. So, he is handicapped to go in, for sure. He is 3/19,5 places over CD. Cheekpieces return having been left off the last day – he ran in them when 3rd here in that race 4 starts ago. The ‘days rest’ is fine- he has won after that long off the track before. The trainer could be a bit hotter but is 1/16,4 places in last 14 days, which is far from disastrous in the context of everything else. AND finally – Joe Fanning – well we have the stats above but the final piece of the jigsaw is PACE- this once likes winning from the front and having checked the pace -maps he looks to be the only out and out front runner. Now he could be better drawn but there is an even spread in terms of winners – if he breaks well he could get to the lead, unless something on his inner changes tactics from recent runs. IF he is able to dictate then we could have plenty of fun as Joe slows it down, and then kicks. It is interesting that for a front runner, the trainer has gone for Fanning – the king of front running tactics. Everything looks right for a bold run here. A repeat of that run 4 starts ago should see him right in the mix and 14s does somewhat stand out. There are a couple of fancied unexposed ones in here but they have questions to answer. Interesting. 

 

SPRINT HANDICAPS TESTING ZONE (trial and lots of error…) 

Running total: 0/3, 0 places = -6 points

I am off to Pontefract again on Tuesday and the weather looks set fair. I have had a look at the 3.40…

3.40 –

Fendale – 20/1 – 1pt EW- UP

Compton Park – 12/1 – 1 pt EW – UP

 

This is a proper test race as I am on the fence as to whether to get involved. My instinct says that there are a few too many young, unexposed horses in here – most in form- to get involved. But, the point of this section is to test these thoughts.

There were three that stood out at the prices – the two selections plus the Fahey horse – Ballymore Castle. Like Fendale he hasn’t added to his maiden win but has some solid enough place form in the book and comes here off 81 with the claim having come second in a C2 off 100 in the past. He gets first time cheekpieces also. I better run would not surprise, esp on this firmer surface. But, in the end the 45 day break just put me off, along with the draw. Not impossible but the two selections are better drawn, on paper at least. You kind of know what is going to happen now but I couldn’t put up three really! 

Fendale-  20/1 leaps off the page given his placed form and the fact he is still unexposed -2/10, 3 places in his career. He has dropped 3lbs on his recent runs which will help. On his second start last year he went very close at Thirsk, having been in a pocket for a time and having to barge his way into space. It also looks like he needs a sound surface and the soft may not have been ideal LTO. It is the York run that caught the eye. 3 starts ago. He was near the head of a bunch finish there, behind the easy enough leader who is now rated 103 and placed in a decent C2. The Tin Man was further behind him that day and he is now rated 115. A head in front of him, in second, was Felix Leither who has won twice since and is now rated 100. He raced in the Ayr Silver Cup after that. They clearly think something of him and you would like to think there will be more to come at some point this season. The trainer does ok here in handicaps, as does the jockey (7/42,18 places and 11/54, 26 places respectfully in handicaps here 730 days) He is well drawn and at the price caught the eye. The market may well guide but if he runs like he did on his second start last season, and repeats that run at York, he shouldn’t be too far away here. This stiffer finish may help also. 

Compton Park – he is a previous CD winner who has won of 90 in the past – making this 78 within reach . He has clearly had his problems in recent seasons but showed real signs of coming back to himself LTO. He has won at this level and has the course experience. Everything looks right for a decent run, if building on that last run. 12s felt a bit generous in that context. He also appears to come into life from July onwards. The trainer is 1/12,6 places in last 14 days. 

We shall see how this race pans out! 

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PONTEFRACT NOTES

I am off to Ponte and thought I would look through HRB with the trainer stats filters, and use Geegeez to just run through the races and highlight anything that caught my eye. This information is very much there to use as a starting point and I have probably spent a max of 3 mins on each race. If there was a desire, I could do something similar like this a handful of times a week, esp on quiet weekend days – do let me know if you think that would be of any benefit. (doing it the evening before would obviously help,to give you time to sift to look through etc) Anyway…

2.10 – Prerogative – Hannon is 2/7,2 places with all runners here. Clearly not sending many. For my latest Betting Insiders Club Article I looked at Nurseries and had two micro systems come out, one for Hannon and one for Fahey. Both look exciting and will be interesting to track this season. This one qualifies on the Hannon angle. 

2.40 – Kingsthistle – M Easterby 6/34,15 places with his handicappers here in last 730 days. That looks to be the only positive as a few negs as to the horse on a quick glance, keeps placing. But, still got time on his side. Mr Orange catches the eye for the in-form again Midgley (dropped off in June a bit – the bugger!!) 4/16,7 places last 14 days. I think this horse qualified here LTO and ran a cracker in 3rd given he had a horrible draw and had to go wide most of the way from memory. Better drawn today he could go well at 7s- albeit the drop in trip doesn’t scream a positive. Finally, Consulting caught the eye – Meade has only had 1 runner here before that placed so his runners here today are worth a second glance. This one is open to any amont of improvement and should come on for his reappearance. There are no out and out front runners in this and I do wonder if Bentley may try and lead them all the way here. He looks interesting. 

3.10 – O’Meara is 2/7,3 places in listed/group races here in last 730 days so Loaves and Fishes is interesting. A big price but I though Tudhope may be able to dominate this from the front which makes it more interesting. Likewise Channon has a good record here in non handicaps and is 1/4 in Listed+ races. He is 6/14,8 places with this jockey also. Fanshawe is 1/2 at the track so both his look interesting. His outsider – he is 4/8 in non handicaps with that jockey on top, but looks second string. This looks a tough punting puzzle. 

3.40 – covered above. 

4.10 – Haggas has a red hot fav here who may not be worth opposing – he is 2/9,6 places in maidens here. Bin Suroor is 2/7, 5 places and his may offer more value for the track-side punter (that’s me today) Eustace is 1/2, 1 place but his is 66/1 and may be a handicap job – wonder if he can sneak a place…(probably not!) 

4.40 – Fahey 15/64,25 places in all handicaps here so his runner is of some interest – Theos Lolly. Swinbank 4/22, 6 places so no 9 may be worth a second glance. Meade runs another here but is returning after the break – had room in the horsebox and may as well send two up- maybe that is the thinking- market may guide as to fitness. Charlton is in fine form and doesn’t send many up here (3/14 last 5 years). 

5.10 – Fahey and Mick Easterby both have runners, their stats in handicaps here mentioned previously. 

So, I will use some of those as a pointer track-side and see if I can find a winner or two for my beer money – I won’t be going mad there. On my last visit I somehow managed to find 3x 16/1 winner, one of them mentioned on here- I won’t be repeating that again, but one would be nice! 

As I said that info above is very much a starting point for those of you who wish to dive a bit deeper into certain races. 

Good Luck, 

Josh 

Phew, that is all for today! 

 

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Only the one jumps meeting tomorrow and then a wait.There are 2 5* horses running tomorrow, Ballyvaughn for the Baily/Skelton Partnership 6.50.Best price 11/1 and the 7.50 Big Sound.Miss E Todd might be near the end of the Jockeys table but she has a good record for her first foray into the business,3/6 with walford so mor than capable having ridden the selection to victory over the larger obstacles 7/1 best price but will probably drift

    1. Gerry,

      Miss E Todd / M Walford had a winner on Sunday and Miss Todd is joint 2nd in the Ladies Amateur Championships with two wins. M Walford has had eight winners from 23 runners 34.78%.

  2. After a great June I have had an absolutely torrid last seven days with not even a single return on my e/w bets however tomorrow looks like a good day although back them at your own peril. My nap has to be Gardiners Hill in the 18:50 at Uttoxeter. Dropping down in trip will suit and also drops down in grade. The 1st, 2nd and one of the PU horses (out of only 4 runners) have won since. Trainer is 1/1 at the track in the past 2 years so the fact he sends 3 there (other two I think have decent chances also) is interesting.

    I also like Big Sound for the reasons above plus the fact that he beat a very good yard stick Buttlegrove King who was coming from a very hot race where the 1st/2nd/4th/5th had won so I think the win was extremely good form. As already discussed trainer and jockey have a good record together as does the trainer at the track and is in very hot form.

    Moving on to Pontefract I like both the Fahey runners Ballymore Castle (15:40) and Star Drifter (17:10). Fahey is 15/64, 25 places in the handicaps at the track over the past 2 years. The former is effectively 7lbs better of with McNamara on board and this is a much easier race than LTO. Plus agian the 3rd and 4th has won since. The latter has gone close in a higher grade race at Haydock and has ran well both times at the track and very much looked like he would do better over this trip. McNamara was onboard the latter of the 2 runs where he finished 2nd.

    1. I would not put you off Gardiners Hill but M Scudamore’s horses are going well and Zayfire Aramis, albeit carrying more weight, is in form.

      1. Its done now mate but sure wouldn’t surprise me Zayfire does well (although trainer is 0/25 at the track in the past 5 years so on that basis alone wouldn’t touch it myself) although that’s the 4th horse mentioned here in the race so clearly a few of us have some differing valid opinions. Part of the fun in this game though. May the best horse win.

  3. Last week I put up the details of an angle for HCP chasers with no wins under certain conditions and trainers. I have had a delve back in for the individual trainers under certain conditions and there is an interesting runner for Jeremy Scott in the 6:50 at Uttox. – Jack Snipe (33/1 Bet 365). His runners have made a small profit under the conditions in the last 3 years @ SR of 33% (55pts), and they are currently 3/3 this year (+36pts), with his runners 2/3 over the distance and 2/3 with first time headgear (hood fitted today). Appears to have something to find, but worth a dabble at the price as has had 20/1 & 16/1 winners under the conditions.
    Just thought I would share.

    1. Cheers Chris – I had him in my notes because of the trainer/jockey combo here which is fairly strong – 6/19,8 places all runners, 4/10 in handicaps. Together, in all handicap chases, they are 10/42, 18 places. I didn’t have your very good stats to add to the case. Very interesting indeed, good luck! Def look worth an EW nibble I would say, when you add that lot together. They also have a 66/1 poke in the 5.50!

  4. Like your Langley Vale angle in the 2.25 at Wolves Josh but one that jumped off the page at me, with the yard in such good form was Whipphound, so have had a dabble on LV at 10’s and Whiipy at 16/1 – good luck all today.

    One other that I have had a tipster nod about is Decisive in the 7.10 at Brighton, got to see off two Tony Carroll runners (no mean feat there) but ran well on Course last year off 55, runs off 54 tonight and Tony Carson struck a bit of form in past 10 days and young Willy up tonight; and we know he rides the track very well.. Had a small bet on that one at 16’s

    – good luck all today

  5. 2.10 Pontefract,The last race springwood ran in has thrown up an ascot winner(Prince Of Lir),th 2nd and 4th have won next time out too,now he was well beaten in this race,this race is quite a step down,might be worth a saver at 10/1

    1. Ah I appear to have a habit of doing that in recent weeks. Probably best to lay off £190! 🙂 . Good luck!

  6. 310P Loaves and Fishes is in this to earn black type and will be up with the pace, says this shareholder. The win might be too much.
    440 The Excel Queen is open to improvement -and you might beat 16/1, Josh.

  7. Thanks for a lovely start to the day Josh! First winner I’ve been on since Wednesday which considering my portfolio approach has been painful so good on you to break that streak.

    1. yep took 10’s on Langley and was on Whippound BOG at 16’s, so a nice touch on the winner thanks to Josh and Whippound ran eye catching race to finish 5th – one for the notebook!

      Thanks Josh

      1. I got on late and price was going but always grateful for a winner to get back on the trail. Well picked out Josh.

  8. Outsider for the day at wolves from my Danny brock system, 5.25 Snug 80/1 probably not even make the places as this looks a hot race but worth a stab 🙂

  9. had a ew Trixie on your fendale and for shuiar and lula with tafhom 5.10 ponte put up a good speed rating LTO this is is only 2nd run over 10f trainer should know the distance is okay been backed aswell 16s last night now 10s also trainer highlighted by your goodself and well done with langley

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