There is a new post –
Just a brief update on the results for the month so far across the portfolio. There are 10 days to go for the month and I rather hope that some of the second places this month (around 20 so far) start turning into wins.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.00 Bev: Final (any odds) WON 9/4
4.15 Bright: Fairy Mist (7/1<) WON 11/2>9/2
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +7 points)
3.00 Beverley – I’m Super Too – 10/1 (BV/BFred) 9/1 (general) –UP – strange race,never really put in it – or just wasn’t quick enough.Taken all the way back and wide from a low draw. Odd. Beverley looks to be set fair for the day – decent ground with no rain about. 10s looks a decent price for one who goes well at this track – 2/8,3 places at Beverley. He is clearly not getting any younger but is now 5lbs below his last winning mark and ran ok here a couple of starts ago. The trainer doesn’t have many runners but 2 of her last 6 have placed. This one is drawn low and does need a lot to go right being a hold up horse, who can just stay on at the same pace. That is why the pace set up also looked intriguing. I can count 8 horses who have led on recent starts and it looks like, on paper at least, that there should be quite a bit of pace on here. Hopefully they go too hard up front and the selection can pick up the pieces. He shows up well enough on geegeez instant expert tab and has the highest speed figure in the race. It could be that he has now just regressed and is a C6 animal at best, but with quite a few things in his favour here 10s was worth a stab for me.
5.30 Beverley – Henry Morgan – 16/1 (general) – UP – clearly should have deliberated for longer,and left him Didn’t have pace to get to front, ran ok but faded late again,still not nearing form. Money never arrived. I have been deliberating this one but have been drawn in by the price – the main ‘way in’ is the pace angle. This one usually blasts out the front and likes to bowl along in front. He is in the perfect spot to attack here, get the rail, and give it a good go. There were glimmers of a return to form LTO – leading as usual until the 1 furlong pol, battling momentarily, before fading in the final furlong. He is also now 0/6,0 places on good to firm and I wonder if he just doesn’t like putting himself down on such a surface. All wins have been on good or good to soft and he gets the former here. The trainer has only sent 14 horses here, 2 have won, 5 have placed i believe. It is around this time of year that he usually comes into form also. With the jockey’s claim he is 1lb below his last winning mark and in the past has won off 58. The trainer isn’t exactly in hot form but then again not many are in here and he has at least had a winner in the last 2 weeks. I suspect this one will go close to winning a race from the front at some stage- and this could be it. Market support would increase confidence and if there is little money come race time I may be concerned. But, given his run style, his draw, his general suitability for conditions and signs of more life LTO, I couldn’t let 16s go. At one stage or another it should look promising- just then what he finds when asked approaching the final furlong. Of course he could just be out of form but at 16s you are being asked to take a chance in what looks an open race where the fav is an 18 race maiden.
That is all for today.