Some brief reflections…
Royal Ascot: I took a different approach this year with some trainer micro systems – an approach I hadn’t tried for this meeting before. In the end the final tally for the main 5 trainer systems was +11 points. (based on 1 point win bets, all qualifiers) So, not too bad and a decent enough return, whatever your staking amount. If some of the research for John Gosden has been a bit sharper pre-meeting, we would have had another +20 points to add onto that. Plenty of stats pointed to that one but I didn’t dig as deep as I could have with one of the angles, which lent itself to another micro angle. But, there is always next year!
I only tipped in one race and clearly shouldn’t have bothered! 🙂 You know how much not getting a run for my money annoys me – albeit my saver bet very nearly rescued the day. Shared Equity ran ok for the most part – it looked like there was a clear track bias and no surprise I suppose that there was fresher ground on the stands side. But, I have tried to guess such things before and picked horses on one side, only for the other to dominate – so picking one from each side is never a bad strategy. He is a decent horse and will win races again. Salateen – well best just move on there. No excuses, he just ins’t in form and is maybe being aimed at something- possibly at York. One to keep an eye on as he clearly has some talent there somewhere.
The winner – Outback Traveller – well I tipped him LTO and it is always annoying when they go on to win. But, I am content with having left him on price ground. If he were 16s-20s I would probably still be staring out the window wondering why I didn’t take a stab. But, in the context of one major trend he fell down on (7th or worse finish LTO were 0/170 odd, 16 places) and the fact I thought he was really poor LTO – travelled well and just cut out, and stamina wasn’t the issue. All in all, in the context of his price, that was enough for me to leave him.
So, what can we learn? Well, Cowell’s C2 sprint handicappers that are more fancied still need to be kept on the right side of. He clearly knows how to trainer speed into horses and has turned that 7f horse into a 6f horse with a decent finishing burst- funny how in the interview with C4 post race he gave impression he didn’t know how he trainer speed into them or what he did. You have to smile! Clever man. Most important I think is about the horse- post race Harley said that he hit the front too soon LTO – and he hates being in front for too long. So, rather than being out of form on his last run, he just rather threw in the towel when hitting the front (he did look like the winner from 3 to 2 furlongs out, before going backwards) And, he almost pulled himself up this time as well, but was delivered to perfection. He is clearly tricky. Not one that got away, but one maybe where some more thinking was required as to that last run, in the context of the horses attitude.
The Betting School – Betting Insiders Club…
Dr Nick Hardman – their resident big race tipster – ended the week on +96 points profit. Quite mind blowing. That is based on 2 point bets (2 point win or 1 point EW) – but even if you used 1 points that is still some return. Phenomenal.
He uses trends, stats and clearly a rather big brain to narrow down on value picks, tipping in most ‘big’ races. He has been in brilliant form for sometime now. Anyway, now may be as good a time as any to have a look. The link below takes you to another video where I think they discuss some of his methods…
2.15 South: Cleeve Hill Lad (14/1<) DNQ
2.45 South: Dealing River (12/1<) UP / The Yank (14/1<) UP
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None today. Nothing standing out too much and the changing weather adds a level of complication. Chepstow looks on the heavy side and Windsor may be heading that way, on the soft side at least. Southwell are expecting a bit more rain, already good to soft in places.