WOKINGHAM STATS/TRENDS COMPLETE… just click Blog above, first post on left.
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Son of Suzie won as I hoped he would – still with the odd scrappy jump- but by the time the 5th fence came around he was bossing it from the front at his own pace. A liking for soft/heavy and plenty of stamina have won the day there. A right slog. In truth, races like that are a barometer for my form – if those types consistently fall out of view then you know I am cold. Anyway, nothing to get too excited about but we comprehensively beat the market which is also a positive. (the rest of the blog didn’t do too much admittedly)
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BIG RACE TIPSTER ON FIRE
Now I won’t bang on about The Betting Insiders Club too much (that’s the one I write monthly articles for, examples of which I sent you in recent weeks) but it is a bloody good club with plenty going on. One part of the club is Dr Nick Hardman’s Big Race Tipping/profiling. My word he is on fire.
In the first two days of Royal Ascot he has made followers around +46.5 points – I received an email from one of you who joined having read my article pack and were rather excited after day 1. (+42 points!)
I think he is on something silly in the last 18 months… over +700 points or so. These are based on 2 point bets – either to win or 1 point EW when stated. And he continues in blistering form.
Anyway, like most things this club/approach won’t be for the majority of you , but some of you may like it and if you wish to find out more YOU CAN DO SO HERE IN THIS VIDEO>>>
OR YOU CAN SIGN UP FOR THEIR FREE TIPS HERE>>>
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Right, onto some horses…
TIPS
6.40 Ffos Las
Gardiners Hill – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH) 8/1 (various) 3rd 4/1
At the prices – and this game is all about the price – (yep that’s the sound of another broken record you can hear!) this looks to be the bet for me. My initial glance last night was that there were too many older horses in here, unpredictable and that it looked a weak race – well the alternative thinking to that is to find a younger one, more progressive, to take them on with. Nearly half the field in here are 10 or older and this one could just do something against them.
What’s the case? Well he knows how to win point to points over 24f and he ran well on his rules chase debut LTO. That race at Bangor was over 2m4f and you have to assume that given his point wins have been over 24f, that thi step up in trip is just what he needs. I have watched the video again, and remember watching the race live, and it looks like he just didn’t have the gears. He held his position well for most of the way and jumped very well also. When they started to quicken in the last 2-3 furlongs or so he just couldn’t stay with them, but kept galloping. He didn’t drop away – simply that is as fast as he could go I think.
So,he is young, unexposed, and at some point could prove better than this mark. He jumps well and based on all evidence to date looks like he will relish this trip. Good to Soft is fine. The horse is clearly on good terms with himself. The trainer is 1/11,3 places with handicap chasers here in last 730 days, 3/19,4 places with all handicap chasers when Moloney is up, again in the last 730 days.
PACE…there are also 3 or 4 on paper who like to get on with it here – which, when you have this jockey onside, is something you want! Much like Spencer (usually- he is bloody good from the front also) the faster they go up front the better. I expect Paul to track the pace and be in the right spot down the home straight. No excuses on that front, if good enough. The trainer is 1/8 in last month which is ok.
All in all, against an ageing bunch who have questionable recent form, this 6yo looks to be priced generously to me at 9s/8s. More than happy to pay to find out if his younger legs will win the day.
Of the rest…
Well the Vaughan horse is also unexposed but is half the price and I don’t think there should be that disparity on what they have done to date. Johnson is up – in a race where Hobbs has a runner- and that looks significant. But, Vaughan’s are going through one of those spells again – 2/34 in last month – so hard to get a handle on that yard in terms of form, seemingly always hot and cold. He could win. He might win. But on paper the selection shouldn’t be twice the price for me. He has led in his points but wont get his own way here.
I can’t really have the rest . Strumble Head may win, he is handicapped to do so. I backed him last time out when he was poor, fading badly. He gets a change of headgear again and he does perform to his best around here. He is 4/7 when 4/1 or shorter also. He may take this, but happy to leave at 7/2- 4/1. He hasn’t been running well. The headgear and return here would be the reasons for a return to form, as well as his mark against old form. Having said that he is 0/5,2 places over CD, the wins here coming over shorter trips. But, in general, I have had my fingers burnt too many times when backing these old timers.
Paddy The Stout is 0/15,2 places all career runs LH and has a stamina question against him, only racing once beyond 2m6f which is the furthest he has won over. That makes 3/1 look a tad short for this 11 yo albeit the trainer and horse are clearly in good nick and that may count for plenty in this race. Again, opposable on price, even if I did think he was the most likely winner (I don’t). Ciceron also has a big stamina question, now 0/3,0 places beyond 2m4f. 3m takes some getting at this track, whatever the ground given its galloping nature – no regular tight bends to fill the lungs up/go a slower pace. Evan Williams is 0/25,4 places or so in the last month which is off putting for his one albeit he now has some chasing questions to answer also. Peterbrown has some things to prove now and I think the trainer is the only reason you would back him – and there would be worse reasons to back a chaser. 0/11,3 places in rules career to date – he shouldn’t be shorter than the selection for me. I can’t have the other two.
So, 8/1 is generous for this young chaser who could be on an upward curve and who will appreciate this step up in trip. Moloney can produce him over the last couple and that will be that! 🙂
No more tips.
MICRO SYSTEMS
Jumps Handicappers
6.10 Ffos Las – Billeragh Milan (14/1<) UP
June Trainers
4.35 Ripon – San Cassiano (any odds) UP
5.10 Ripon- Orient Class (18/1<) 2nd
8.00 Leic- Cosmic Chatter (any odds)
Other
Pam Sly (any odds)
8.30 Leic – Ghinia
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.55 Ripon – Indy (16/1<) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None today.
Post Complete.
15 Responses
Just so you know Josh but Leicester off tomorrow.
Looks like a really tricky day of punting at Ascot tomorrow. The best race from a punting point of view is the Gold Cup as long as you have Skybet (paying 5 places). At the prices the jolly has to be taken on. Personally taking him on with Clever Cookie with a tiny bet on Fun Mac. I also like Legendary Lunch in the opener who seems to fall on the right side of most of the Hannon stats. Plus from a small sample size 9/12 of his sires progeny have placed over good/soft or worse (3/3 on soft or worse) and he is one of only 2 horses in the race to have won over good/soft or worse. Away for Ascot I like Rock N Red (Lingfield 19:50) and Bold Prediction (Chelmsford 14:55)
Josh, in your write up yesterday you touched on the angle of chasers yet to win in the sphere. I researched this angle in March on HRB for 2m7.5f+ for particular trainers and since 2013 it has performed at 88/325, 27%, +222pts (SP),and this year already 33%, +47%. So definitely worth researching. I will put up any qualifiers in the future.
As a footnote another dry night in the Ascot area, but who knows what today will bring as the forcasters aren’t much help!!
chris
re your angle are u able to provide the list of trainers that fit the angle please
Josh – re my earlier post, I have had a nagging doubt since that it may have originated from some of your research in a report, so apologies if that was the case and I was claiming full credit!!
Anthony, I will of course list the trainers but it won’t be until tonight now.
Haha no worries, no need to apologise – my ramblings are there for you to take away, inspire, and no doubt improve upon! NTD and possibly Fergal OBrien came out well with unexposed/0 chase wins. Sounds like you have looked at those with 0 handicap chase wins – an angle I have yet to dive into fully. I will be spending many hours of quality time in my HRB account on all things 2m7f+ handicap chases before October rolls around – research/micros/profile horses – so we should have plenty to go to war with. And of course, all of your help/ideas are welcome!
I will take credit for the idea, you can take credit for developing it further by the sounds of things! 🙂
hi josh
can I just check with you about predilection as new micro pick for ascot 5.0. does the “not dropping in class rule” still apply as the 5.0 race is shown as class 1 hcap
apparently incorrectly on the racing post site. it is a class 2 in the star. think am correct in saying that lowest class 1 is a listed race. there is no such thing as a class 1 hcap that is not a listed race? if as looks like the 5.0 is a class 2, then as predilection ran in a listed race LTO, then is dropping in class and does not qualify?
HI Malcolm – It did not come up in both my HRB systems (as saved) , just the second one where the class move rule is not in play. He is moving down by 1 class according to HRB class move rules – ie from a C1 Listed to a Class 2 handicap. But he does on the micro 2 rule.
So, he does not qualify on 1, that is correct – but 2 does not include the class move rule… indeed in micro 2 those dropping in class are 0/2,1 place.
Hope that is clear.
Hi Josh re Gardiners Hill…I agree with your comment on Paul Maloney…I consider him and Paddy Brennan to be the best judges of pace in races….I know you still have to have better horses to progress, but by and large if they have the right animal under them, they tend to do the business….great at laying off the pace and then producing the horse at the right moment.
Yep – well Brennan is one of best for me on chasers – love how he makes up a horses mind at a fence, especially the last! That one handed whipping action mid flight is a joy to watch – goes wrong every now and then (CC- albeit he just took off,rather than being fired into fence)…likes of Moloney and Spencer – you know what you are going to get, and if you back their runners you forfeit your right to complain- because they do get it wrong every now and then – but their view is to settle a horse, get it breathing, in a rhythm and to make sure they have something left for the end. Can make them look amateur at times, but they get it wrong more than get it right, and may win on horses that others may not. Well, that’s my view anyway!
Showers today on early races
Leic abondoned
An each way double away from Ascot, both reported going well at home.
5.10 Ripon, Sir Geoffrey and 8.45 Lingfield, Hepworth Missile.
At Ascot I like Manson, 5.00, each way.
5.10 Ripon
Flash City
No bet day for me,i will just try Ascot
I am having a small EW DOUBLE. Got the wheelbarrow to COLLECT, ???
Palawan & Midhmaar,
EW TREBLE
Legendary Lunch, Royal Artillery & Mizzou
Paddy Brennan head and shoulders above the rest in chases,rarely seen him get a race wrong when he has the right horse under him