Members Report: 15/06/16 (COMPLETE)

Note: May’s results post is up, now second post down when clicking ‘blog’ above. Unpleasant reading and best not to spend too much time on it! 

I will try and get the Wokingham Trends up Wednesday morning. I am then back off to Suffolk (a nice 4h 50m train to Ely) for a friend’s wedding which is on Friday.

And, this is also an early note to say I will be off to Glastonbury Festival also – clearly I am no hippy (could you tell?!), but it is good fun and I have’t been for a few years – It does mean it will be the first time ,probably since Nov 2014, that I will be away from a lap-top/internet. I will discuss that more next week but I have arranged for the daily posts to continue with System Bets put up. And of course you will be able to talk among yourselves. I forget when I had more than one day not looking/thinking about horses/this blog and in truth I am looking forward to it.  And, you never know, me not backing the system bets may result in a change in their fortunes! 🙂 But, more on that early next week. 

TIPS 

5.20 Uttoxeter 

Son Of Suzie – 1 point win – 6/1 WON 5.7/1 (after R4) 

This looks a golden opportunity for this chaser to get off the mark. I learnt long ago (well a few weeks ago after doing some digging) that the stats suggest you shouldn’t just be put off a handicap chaser if they have yet to win a chase. 

The chase course is officially soft here according to BHA website with some more showers possible. That means this race should be a real stamina test- this one will relish the ground and does stay well. I also think they may try and make all – well I hope they do- and he could get plenty of these in trouble. His form is also decent for me, without winning as yet. That Bangor run was good, just outstayed over 3m5f by a NTD horse that came out and won a C3 chase next time. They were both miles clear that day. It is possible he was feeling that run at Hexham. He had a break and returned with a decent run on better ground at Stratford – again the front three were miles clear- Thomas Wild won that and nothing wrong with losing to him – he is smart enough in his conditions and is a proper C3 performer. 

He has a new rider for the first time and that may make some difference. Trainer is 2/12,3 places in handicap chases here last 730 days and the jockey has won on chasers for him. His are running ok also, with a winner in the last 14 days. He has dropped in the ratings and gets a fairly light weight here. In this ground, for one that can bounce along in front, that also caught the eye. He has a course win over hurdles and all in all 6s looked fair enough, if not a shade generous. 

Of the rest…

Well the Jonjo horse was high up on my list and knowing me I have picked the wrong one again! He ticks plenty of boxes- he should come on from that run LTO and the jockey who has done all the winning on him returns, as does the headgear. He knows how to win – alebit I am unconvinced as to the level of his ‘summer form’. The ground is an unknown as is the distance- and in the end I think that is what just swung it for me. Breeding suggests the ground should be fine and he runs as if he will stay, but you never know until they try. He may not be far away. 

Kilbree Kid is undoubtedly handicapped to go in at some point and has been running OK- but only that. The trainer is in great form still. But, this one has never run well on soft -only 4 runs on it but has yet to place – all his best form has been on a sound surface and at the prices, that was the main concern. 

Distracted was also high on the list – until I read the trainer stats with all horses returning after 121+ days off- 0/47, 11 places – they are not disastrous but for one that was 6/1 that had to be a concern. -0/23,6 places in handicaps.  If he was here on the back of a run he would be a shorter price I suspect – he looks progressive and will relish conditions. Fitness the main question, and maybe this one will rubbish those stats. 

Brook has fallen twice now in his 8 chase starts and won a weak race at Exeter for me. Stamina is a question but he is lightly raced and if over that fall may be in the mix but on balance I was happy to leave. 

I was struggling to make a convincing case for the rest- lack of experience (Vaughan horse), class and ground were what mainly ruled out the others- as was age for a few of them. 

PACE – Son of Suzie is the only consistent out and out front runner- albeit a few other pace pushers in here- I hope they try and make all and if getting into a rhythm may just be able to grind them into the ground.

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Other

Varian Fillies/Mares (25/1<) 

5.35 Ascot: Aljuljalah UP

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Hamilton (all any odds)

3.55 – Maulesden May UP

4.35 – Livella Fella UP

5.10 –  Ryan The Giant UP

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

A long overdue winner at last, 8/1>7/2. He didn’t do it as I expected but to be honest I don’t care too much! (albeit him leading all the way was the main way in,and reason I looked in more depth! 🙂 )

2.45 Hamilton – Chochenyo – 16/1 -UP Mr Smart doesn’t have too many first time out 2 year old winners but I found it of interest that in the last 5 years he has sent 10 of them here, 3 have won +23 points SP profit. This one has speed in his blood and if ready to go, in what looks a weak enough maiden (those with a run dont look too inspiring) he could out-run these odds. As ever the market may guide. He is also 2/15,5 places in all maiden races here in last 730 days, and 20/120,51 places with all non handicappers at the track, +41 SP. Jockey is 18/111,43 places on all his non handicap mounts. The trainers runners in June have finished… 2,6,5,3,1,7,3,2 – so, they are running ok. A few things there that made 16s worth a dart for me. 

6.20 Wexford -12/1-  Grand Crusader – UP-Trainer and Jockey have teamed up just 8 times here in the last 5 years, winning 4 of them. This ones best run to date came on decent enough ground and they step up in trip by 8 furlongs (or 1 mile)- for a horse who seems to have stamina in his blood that could make all the difference. As always they may be buggering about to get a mark but then I don’t know why you would step a horse up in trip if that was the case- you would just keep getting them outpaced – legitimately (not bred for trip), around 16f maidens – get a mark, step up, then hack up in a handicap. We shall see. The trainer is 2/9,4 places in the last 30 days and at 12/1 looked interesting. 

That is all for this section. 

Horses To Note…

These are not stats/angles of interest horses that will be recorded in the results for that section, but just highlighting horses previously tipped for information…

Man of Harlech runs in the Royal Hunt Cup here and is around 33s- I tipped him in 5th in the Lincoln where we got EW returns to cover the race. That day he looked in need of a step back up to 10f and couldn’t say he looked well handicapped. Balding is 0/13,2 places in this race and the horse has had 74 days off- the Lincoln isn’t working out that well either- 1/35,9 places those to have run since. All in all, despite his price, I can’t tempt myself. And well, we know what will happen now! 

I did have a fun interest bet on Instant Attraction at Epsom using the record of top weights in handicaps and he just got collared late. You couldn’t say he was well handicapped either really, always bumping into one with more in hand. But, he stays well, loves the mud, is in form and is a prominent racer. And is a big price. It’s hard to know how the draw will work out – unsure if a bias really, more where they decide to run but will have a firmer idea after this race, and maybe from some before. The trends- well I had a brief look- given 18/19 renewals have been run on good/good to firm I am unsure how useful they will be but no horse carrying 9-6 or more has won this yet and those that finished Top 4 LTO have a decent enough record. I have no intention of going through every runner in this or all the trends. But, Instant Attraction may get a ‘muggy,haven’t looked at the race properly, £5EW’ from me. 

Wicked Spice 3.30 Uttox- – tipped LTO before being withdrawn – well I don’t wish to tip in Novice Handicap Chases and this one is a hold up horse in a race without loads of pace on paper – BUT, I liked him LTO and this is a weaker race on paper. I will probably throw £5 (1/4 point for me) at him at 8s to see how he goes here. Trainer is still in form at least. There are quite a few in-form horses in the race,and while not being as good as the last one necessarily, still looks competitive. Unsure if the 2m6f will be up his street either. 

GOING… who knows what it will be! I have The Morning Line on in background on C4+1 and it is bright and apparently drying out all the time- it is a fast drying track- maybe the first few races will be instructive. There could be good in description come the later races…(if that is the case it may make Spirit Raiser more interesting for James Fanshawe – he is 2/9,6 places in the Royal Hunt Cup!- and with those stats his other one may be interesting also)