Members Report: 14/06/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

None. Nothing away from Ascot catches the eye and as discussed earlier,bar the Wokingham on Saturday, I will just be using my stats and seeing how they do. I have sent the Day 1 email to DC Members – if you are in that club and haven’t received it please email me. info@racingtoprofit.co.uk 

There are 6 potential qualifiers from the 5 main systems plus some decent pointers to a few other runners also. Fingers crossed. Albeit I am yet to look if they like cut etc etc. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

3.30 Strat: Gold Ingot (12/1<) NR

4.45 Strat: Ballyvaughan (12/1<) UP

June Trainer

6.15 Thirsk: Summer Isles (18/1<) NR

Other 

Meehan Maidens (any odds) 

5.45 Thirsk: Malakky 2nd 5/4

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

6.15 Thirsk: Anieres Boy (28/1<) UP

6.20 Bright: Fairy Mist (7/1<) DNQ

6.50 Bright: Katie Canford (7/1<) DNQ

7.50 Bright: Mrs Warren (any odds) UP 2/1>5/1

8.10 Bev: Kelvin Hall / Renfrew Street (both any odds) 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.55 Stratford – Honeymoon Cocktail – 11/1 (bet365), 9/1 in places… (UP/PU 7/1, showed nothing,poor. Stats solid, horse not so much) Pipe and Scu are 10/32,18 places when teaming up here with all runners in the last 5 seasons, 2/8,5 places with non-handicap hurdlers here in the last 730 days. David Pipe is in blistering form – 4/12, 6 places in the last two weeks. So, on those stats, this one is of interest. He makes his hurdle debut here having started life on the flat. He has had a break of 64 days and may well have been trained differently now – I would think he will be ready here, albeit the market may well guide. The ground is heading on the soft side, which given his sire, doesn’t look to be an inconvenience on paper. There are a few recent winners in here but a) summer novice hurdles are not the strongest and b) those wins were on decent enough ground – so, they also have a going question to prove. The George horse may just be too good but this one looks interesting at a price and has some class in his blood. 

7.50 Brighton – Castle Talbot – 9/1 (Bet365) 8/1 general – WON 8/1> 7/2.. haha well the main way in was PACE- but he didn’t lead, and rather sat off them, winning cosily I think, if a little too close for comfort. He had plenty of other ways in,stats/drop in trip/headgear/hncp mark. Will take that. this ones price has been coming in as I have been researching but I can see why. I am taking on a TTP horse but that one is arguably short enough and this one stood out – odd for a 13 race maiden I know BUT…the pace is most interesting, combined with an almighty drop down in trip. They have made the running with this one a few times over much further and he has always faded. Last time he may have been held up to try and get the trip. But, with cheekpieces on, this jockey back up, the big drop down to 7f and no other front runners in the race – I hope/expect they play catch me if you can – and my gut/head says they may struggle to real him in here. He started with Hughes off a mark of 68 and comes here off 59. He is doing plenty differently and if this doesn’t work then I don’t know where you go. He just looks interesting for a few reasons and a much better run wouldn’t be a surprise. He was 10s but 9s is still around and 8s probably just about ok. A brief look at the oppo doesn’t inspire too much confidence- no progressive in form horses as such and all have something to prove. He could steal this one from the front. Hughes is 2/7,3 places at the track to date and Kelly is 6/24,8 places for him in flat handicaps so far. 

***

That is all for today. Post complete. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Given its a concession, anyone know what the minimum number of runners there need to be for SkyBet to honour their 5 places promotion in the King’s Stand tomorrow? I cannot locate the T&Cs for it.

    1. Given we are down to 17 runners and Sky still paying 5 places have gone mob handed with Waady, Pearl Secret and Take Cover. All three are proven on soft with the latter 2 placing on heavy. All are top 5 on HRB ratings. Dettori on board Waady for the first time is a big plus and he qualifies under Josh’s stats for Gosden runners who made their debut at the Newmarket (July) course (5/8). All three were top 4 LTO and given those who were 6th worse are 1/98, 7 places it pays to back horses in relatively decent form in this.

      1. Good Luck Nick, think you may have convinced me to have a nibble on Waady, esp given the odds/likely SP. Pearl Secret wont be far away based on last two runnings and as you say ground should be fine. Be interesting in this ground whether favours those near front or back at this track etc – i have no idea!

        1. Yeah will be interesting to find out for the rest of the week. I suspect considering its not been this soft for 40 years I think today will give us more pointers for the rest of the week than recent trends. The other thing I forgot to mention is I have covered the track with stalls 1,13 and 20 in case of a draw bias.

          1. Waady in 5th just about covers the bets. Do you think there is a bias to high drawn numbers? Seems a semi even spread but definitely more high and middle than low after the first three races.

  2. Looking for a couple of fun bets in the Ascot Stakes

    Trends/form shortlist of: Mirsaale, Hassle, Totalize, Le Maitre Chat

    Any fancies for you?

    1. Penglai Pavilion showed a lot of stamina over hurdles last autumn so should be suited by the trip. Steady backing on BF y’day too.

  3. Richard Fahey Beginning to hit top gear now,might be worth following blindly now at tracks he does well at,3yo at thirsk,Mustique 5.10 Thirsk

  4. Given the continued rain – may well be heavy now – I coudn’t resist a small EW nibble on Lancelot Du Lac at 50s in Kings Stand, 4 places – could well sneak a place, and you never know… Heavy ground no issue – albeit a lack of class may well be! – but this surface will be a new experience for most and at least he is proven in the mud- two places, and he stays further. Yard in superb form as well. An interest bet for fun!

      1. Ha well I do hope so – but given it was officially good to soft last night I couldn’t have tipped him on that basis, and even maybe soft this morning – but reports are that it was/is still raining heavily – and knowing them they may have called it ‘soft’ to ensure not loads of non runners – probably be called heavy after R1. We shall see how he goes! Gold Dream was a handicapper, then G3 winner before winning a G1on his second go, so you never know!

        1. Yeah but now I have to have a small bet to follow now lol. (despite being on 3 already). I don’t think there was a chance of it remaining good/soft. Plenty of heavy showers here this morning also.

          1. yea I know – but not sure I could have predicted Heavy last night, and that is only reason I am interested. He handles it and it may blunt so many of the others that class could be blunted etc, thereby increasing his chance. Time will tell! Of course if he bolts up I will be cursing not having made an educated guess on ground!

    1. Hi josh, just looking at geegeez and ‘double up’ has quite a few greens. Can you please explain why lancelot is more appealing? ? Or am i reading it all wrong lol !

      1. Hi Max – he does with the going setting of good to soft – but if you change it to heavy you will note he has never raced on it – and I am assuming, rightly or wrongly it will be heavy- his winning form is on good to form. Trainer form, his extra stamina and his eye popping price (may be for good reason!) made him worth a small interest play.

  5. A couple way from Ascot.

    Bleu Et Noir, 2.55 ST. Opposing Josh but it is fancied to improve further. 9/2.

    6.15 TH Sarabi, 18/1, fancied to run well.

    1. June’s Stats/Angles of Interest have been very opposable so far!! Good luck with the second one, not the first though 🙂 (albeit I hope he wins for you if mine doesnt)

  6. Nick- yep hard to know of there is a bias or not- too hard to tell. Seems to be where pace is- and pure ability and class has won two of the races, arguably all three so far. (well, not sure American horse wanted it that soft and O’brien’s is thought to be better on good+) Lancelot clearly not good enough – but jockey looked to be one of last to move and for a brief moment I thought he may pick up when asked and be up there for a place. Not much damage done for fun money.

    1. Possibly. 6 of the first 9 home in the King Stand were drawn 14 or higher (so with the nr that’s all of them) so if there is a bias its definitely on the high side. I disagree with you on Tepin. The ground when she won the Breeder’s Cup was recorded as good but it was more like soft that day and she thrived on it but agree all three were the best horses in their respective races.

  7. How the hell was Galileo Gold 6/1 today????? I can’t believe that!!!!! 3rd fav!!!!! Why am I always so busy at work and miss these things then lose trying to play catch up when I’m not busy ????? Massive aaaaaargh!!!

  8. hi josh
    I have decided to add”any odds if unbeaten “to your royal ascot stats, and note how they do after ARDAD WON @ 20 TO 1,
    it did not qualify for j gosden as was a 5f race, but if a horse has never lost, cant really be too worried about the price. .

    1. Hi Malcolm – yea I touched on him in the email just sent – a look at the stats etc in guide indicated that while overall stats over 12/1 last 5 seasons were 0/31,6 places- in non handicaps in 14/1-20/1 bracket they were 0/11,5 places. And , he ran in a C4 in his first career run – stats for that were strong. I didn’t back him. Distance – that micro just focused down on distances where he had had winners, hasn’t had many 5f runners in truth – I could have explained that more! Odds caps always a guide, and sometimes better than others! He had another biggie run well also – something to keep an eye on- hope that isnt his only winner! Now he has had 5f winner those ones should probably be noted also. Annoying, but you can’t cover everything. Albeit in hindsight – non handicaps, 20/1<, C4 on 1st career run is now looking better!

  9. Great shout about castle talbot there josh.Your system bet, is the one to take from the race.That’s the second time drowny has run into a wall of horses and had to switch Done it at brighton 2 races ago same conditions.I think she’s weighted to win on this mark with a bit of luck next time under these conditions.

    1. Cheers Mozzer- yea she wasnt a bet for me at 2/1 this morning but drifted to 5s and I had that feeling she may then spoil my party! I did think winner would dictate and kick, which wouldn’t have been good for Mrs Warren but New Rich seemed to blast off and I must say I was pleased to see him run into traffic – tricky there as course takes you towards rail and she has to come with a long sustained effort.

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