TO NOTE: I am off to Pontefract on Monday evening – my first visit there – easy enough to get to on the train from Liverpool it would appear – so that should be fun. I am meeting up with Ben Aitken of Narrowingthefield fame – we have talked online for probably a good 4/5 years now, and I have him to thank for plenty – namely ‘horse profiling’ as well as a few other things I suspect. Anyway, it will be good to share a beer or three and he has kindly offered to put me up for the evening. In terms of Tuesday’s blog- I will get system bets up on Monday evening and from then on I am unsure. I will be getting a train back early on Tuesday so suspect that may be it – but will keep you posted.
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3.00 Ayr: Intensified (any odds) UP
4.00 Ayr: Favourite Treat (any odds) WON 16/1
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
4.00 Ayr: Haidees Reflection (16/1<) UP
7.45 Ponte: Gallipoli UP/ Gin In The Inn (both 9/1<) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.45 Brighton: Essaka – 14/1 – UP- Keen TTP users will note the trainers decent enough record in 3yo+ handicaps here. A solid enough 6/31, 14 places, +20 SP before the season started. This price just looks big for a horse that is now 0/8, 1 place on the AW and doesn’t look to enjoy those artificial surfaces. Of course he could just be out of form but it is his turf form here that catches the eye. His last win was in August 2015, over the CD off a mark of 54 – which, with the claim, is what he runs off here today. His last run at the track was in a C4 off effectively OR60 when including the 5lb claim, where he came a credible 3/9, beaten 1 1/4 lengths. This is a C6. He is 1/3,3 places over this CD. While the trainer doesn’t have any ‘green symbols’ next to his name he is 4/28 in the last 14 days, 40% winning or placing. So, they are running OK. Given all of the above and the fact many in here appear to have issues with a decent surface, I couldn’t resist a go at 14/1. He ticks a lot of boxes and if running up to his best must be in the mix.
8.45 Ponte: Geoff Potts 9/1 UP
While this one isn’t 10/1 I thought at 9s, which he is in a couple of places, he is worth a go. In the last year the trainer is 3/12,4 places with his handicap debutants,+32 SP. His string are running ok, 2/11, 3 places in last 2 weeks and they could just be starting to hit form. The jockey booking also catches the eye – Kingscote rides this track well and I read an article on Timeform that looked at Jockey’s early position – which is something they have been researching for some time,building up data – and Kingscote rides many of his from the front or just off the pace, more so than the average. He is a decent rider and from this draw there is a chance he decides to get out and make all- or try to at least. On this ground, at this track, I think that is where you want to be – it could be a front runners/prominent racers evening. There has been some promise on his maiden runs where he has been staying on well enough. It may be that he will want further in time. The trainer is 0/5,0 places with runners here – they are small numbers and at the price I am happy to ignore for now. There appear to be plenty in here that are unfancied and given that this one could have something in hand we could have some fun. The geegeez draw stats tell me that those drawn 12 or higher over this distance on this ground are 0/28,0 places on recent races here- so a few of them, including the fav, have some work to do.
That is all for this sections.
Well I am off to the races to what follows are some initial thoughts on what catches my eye here. These notes should be viewed as a starting point to further analysis, if you want to take an interest in some of them…
6.45 – well I may as well try and put my ‘jumping’ paddock eye to good use here- which has been getting better over the sticks- no idea if I can transfer that to this race but I am sure something may leap of the page. At a price – Red Shanghai UP- is interesting – now, he may just be running to get a nursery mark or something- but his dam is a US 6f winner and a few other indications suggest that maybe this rattling fast ground, as opposed to the good to soft, may see him in better light. He also steps up in trip and is low drawn, with Kingscote on top. I probably can’t resist a small bet at 25s to find out + anything that catches my eye pre race. Very much a ‘going to the races’ bet! – as most of these are really…
7.15 – Bulas Belle – 16/1 WON- interests me from a pace angle – he look the only out and out front runner in the race and from that Catterick run we know he stays well. On his second start of the season last year he came a head second. There seems to be a feeling that he is best on soft and wont handle the ground – but that is rather inconclusive. He came a decent second here, in a maiden admittedly, on good to firm – but the way he finished suggested it wasn’t bothering him to the extent of not being able to put his feet down effectively etc. It looks like he will lead for some of the way in any case, and I know he stays, so I should get an exciting run for my money – for a few furlongs at least! He is unexposed over these trips, and in general really, only 2/11 on flat.
7.45 – I have the well backed Gallipoli from the systems to keep me interesting here – 6/1>10/3, His other runner is interesting – given the break the market may well guide, and so far it is screaming to leave him alone. But, he makes his hncp debut and returns after 90 days+ – both of which come up well in the TTP here -it will be interesting what the market does up to the race. I did think the Barron horse may try and take all but there are a few prominent racers and I can’t see one getting a really easy lead without having to do too much. But, he may give it a good go.
8.15 – no strong views on this one – Again the pace angle makes Rosamaria UPinteresting – she could get an uncontested lead – but Franny is on the other Johnston runner and this one does have a stamina question – but an unknown rather than having proved she doesn’t – first try at trip. I probably won’t resist an interest bet on this one. 4 others look tight at the top of the market and a bit of a guessing game.
8.45 – We have the ‘stats/angles’ horse to keep me interested in this race. If Slingsby were better drawn I may be tempted at a bigger price- Trainer/Jockey 5/9,7 places in the last 2 weeks and he is very well handicapped, albeit seemingly out of form. Tough draw. I may use the ‘paddock eye’ again to find something else.
9.15 – Innocently UP has the perfect draw to try and make all here and ticks plenty of boxes at 9/2 – I think he may have been 7s or so last evening. He is 3/9,4 places on good to firm, 2/5,2 places in C5 and 1/1 OR 61-70. He looks like he may run a good race here. Mr Furtado can do no wrong at the moment and his string are bouncing – plenty of green 14s/30s. Eternitys Gate WON- 11/2 therefore of some interest. He also has a decent record with stable newcomers. Both may be short enough but when you go racing it isn’t all about value – sometimes you do just want winners! Hopefully one of these two can close of the evening with a bang, of sorts.
So, you will have a pretty good idea if I will be staring into the bottom of my pint glass come 9.20! These are only for interest and a bit of fun and not too much time has gone into the race analysis – usually when that happens you get what you deserve, but we shall see!
Good Luck with your Monday wagers.
I will be back later tonight with the systems.