Members Report: 04/06/16 (COMPLETE)

TIPS 

3.45 EPSOM DASH 

Mukaynis – 1 point EW4 places  4th – (phew!).. +3 points on race… a decent run but just not quite had the speed over 5f at this track – staying on well enough near the end. A stiffer 5f or back to 6f on a more conventional track may see him to better effect – he looks like he has a decent pot in him. Kimberella was very unlucky there – with a clean start would have won that ‘comfortably’ for a sprint, you would think. Caspian Prince has run a cracker after a break, his highest winning mark to date in handicaps. That track clearly plays to his strengths. Part relieved to get some sort of run for my money. 

Where to start with this one then. 

Well, let’s start with a few trends and stats that I used with a guide. I used 4: NOT a 3yo (poor record to date, only one in here and arrives after a break,happy to leave regardless of this stat) / 1-7 career wins (8+ 0/43, 11 places) / Top 3 on one of last 3 starts (Did not – 1/107, 15 places) / NOT C6 on first ever run (o/30 odd,0 places)

That little lot doesn’t cut it down by much and leaves a long shortlist of: Maljaa / Caspian Prince / Boomthegroom / Harry Hurricane / Roudee / Duke of Firenze / Secretinthepark / Kimberella / Mukaynis / SandFran… / 

So, that is a useful starting point, but only that. 

Next…I had a look at my Class 2 Sprint Handicap Notes (READ HERE>>>) to see what stood out…

  • T Dascombe: 0/43,11 places in this race type (all stats last 3 full seasons + 16′) 
  • Clive Cox: 1/37, 10 places in this race type – but his horse is well versed at this level) 
  • Peter Crate: 0/22, 2 places in race type – has the bottom horse – who is also 0/6, 0 places C2
  • Robert Cowell: 1/50,6 places in this race type with those going off 10/1 or bigger. A lot of money will need to come for his two. Clearly that won’t stop them, but his unfancied ones are hard to pick out
  • O’Meara: 0/29,3 places with those going off 16/1+ 
  • Roger Varian: Maljaa QUALIFIES on the micro for him here, stats are 5/15,11 places with this type. A negative is his draw (4-7 are 0/75,9 places – could just be random or something to do with how races pan out/track) And those that have only had 1 seasonal run do ok, but no better. And, he is short enough I think. 
  • Kevin Ryan: Mukaynis – QUALIFIES on the main angle and the one that is 7/24,13 places since 2013, +52 SP. 

Mukaynis

Let’s start with him here. This 5yo looks to be on the upgrade to me with plenty more to come. Since the blinkers were fitted 3 starts ago he hasn’t looked back. He somewhat bolted up at Haydock in a C3, 6f race – winning that well, leading all the way and showing blistering speed – to the eye. He returned at Kempton on the AW- missed the start a tad but soon recovered to get the lead and he kept fighting in what has turned out to be a decent race. There was a decent gap back to the third (he may have done too much and/or needed the run near the end) The winner has since come out and placed twice in decent C2s at Newbury and Newmarket. The 3 that finished behind him that day have all come out and won since. So, there is some substance. Then we move onto Chester – I am not sure if he missed the start (which would be a slight concern here) , the jockey was asleep, or it was deliberate (seemed to sit down on him) for some reason! Either way he tracked a ferocious pace (i think showing that he has the speed for this fast 5f- which is also a niggle,built into his price for me) and got stuck behind traffic – the jockey sat motionless for ages and by the time he got out the winner had flown, and he hardly anytime to get into gear. He wasn’t given a hard time after that – all over in a flash. But, it showed that he was in form. 

Kevin Ryan is in form 10/51 last 14 days, performing 25% above market expectations, 37% have placed. He doesn’t have the greatest record here but is 7/76 at the track and at 16s that is no reason to be put off I don’t think. 

This horse does have more to come – he hasn’t finished improving yet I doubt, and he could have a bit in hand. With a clear run he would have gone very close LTO. he stays 6f, which may be no bad thing given the pace they may go here but as I said to my eye looks like he has the speed for this. He has won on good to soft so the ground should be fine. Good is fine also – it wont be Good to Firm. 

PACE – is fascinating here – my word there are a lot of front runners in here – importantly he is drawn 18 and the two on his outside, 19+20 do not usually try and lead all the way, more sitting off the pace or being held up. IF he breaks on terms there is a chance that he can get across to that near side rail. I hope they make plenty of use of him, to avoid any traffic problems, and he looks sure to run a massive race to my eye. 

The pin was luck enough to land on the winner of this last season – but as always in these races you need plenty of luck. I think this one looks ready to roll here and if he is comfortably in the front rank after the first couple – in a comfort zone, I will start to get excited. As I said I think his stamina will help here – if he has the pace to hold an early position – and as others fold hopefully he keeps battling away. With a clear run, given his last three runs, I would like to think he would be in the shake-up, hence the EW bet. 

Of the rest….well if I have time in the morning I will go into more depth but the two others that interested me were Boom The Groom and Green Door – the latter is interesting because the trainer is in form and the visor returns. But, his recent runs have been very underwhelming and given the size of the pot, and the trainer, i am surprised a pro isn’t on board – I would have thought if he was expected to go well someone else would be up – not because the lad up isn’t any good – he is very good – I may have read that completely wrong – his jockey wont be the reason he doesn’t win. Interesting if money comes. Boom The Groom – I think I backed him last year also where he came third. I don’t like the 70 day break or the fact he raced on the AW LTO. I see no automatic reason why he would go 2 places better than last year- but clearly handles conditions – also I think Good to Firm is best, but then he has ran well here in Heavy – so who knows. Kirby is booked and I may have some ‘saver change’ on – but I find it odd they haven’t got a run into him here – a problem maybe. Caspian Prince is interesting and he is fast – again the 100 day break is a concern and he was kept busy in Meydan- He won well at York off only a couple of lbs lower so that may not stop him- but at the same time something else in here – hopefully the selection – will have more in hand. 

So, that will do for now. As always happy to explain why I have left something else if asked- my note pad is rather full. Mainly there are issues around current form and/or handicap mark for quite a few in here – not too many that look upwardly mobile yet plenty that are a few pounds above last winning marks etc. 

That will be all for tips on Saturday. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

June Trainer

3.45 Epsom: Desert Law (18/1<) NR

8.40 Newc: Tanawar (any odds) (not sure if Ruth is going a bit cold or not!) UP 25/1 

9.10 Newc: Orient Class (18/1<) UP 11/2>3/1

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

3.40 Donc: High Baroque (16/1<) NR

5.15 Epsom: Duretto (any) UP

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

1.40 Muss: Just Paul 12/1UP (poor run,clearly Bev run was deceptive! Doesn’t look like he is about to win anytime soon on that basis. Very on paced) anyone with geegeez gold will see why this one jumps of the page using the instant expert tab – all race conditions suits and he is 18lb below his last winning mark. He is 3/7,4 places over CD in flat handicaps – he does like it here and if he is going to win again it will surely be here. Many in here have questions to answer against race conditions but he doesn’t. He likes to track the pace and is well drawn to do so. As well as the CD form which catches the eye, it is his seasonal reappearance over 7f that went into many people’s notebooks I think – he just go no run, a couple of times, and his jockey had to sit and suffer. It was the run of a horse who looked on good terms with himself. He came out 7 days later over 8f (where he is now 0/8,2 places) and faded over 1 furlong out – it could also be that he needed longer between runs. On that basis, returned to his optimum conditions, I am happy to take the chance at the odds. Micky Hammond is a bit like Jim Goldie in terms of stable form – very hard to predict and can be very hot and cold. He is 2/32 in the last 14 days – maybe a concern – but he was 0/30 odd in the 16 days or so before that, so in that sense he is in ok form! He is only 2/55 at the track, and has yet to win with this horse- but the horses form here makes that stat irrelevant. If he runs like he did at Beverley, he shouldn’t be far away.

 

***

That is all for today. I have’t had time to look through the Flat or Jumps TTP, but if there is anything eye-catching that you fancy then do comment away. 

The Derby – I like watching classy races but I rarely bet too much in them, especially on the flat and in races like this – with so many unknowns – a few are going to step forward massively for this trip and it appears a few of you agree on some tasty EW nibbles so I may just follow you fine judges in with a small interest bet. It was brilliant to watch Minding yesterday – all class- and all stamina as well. 

I have yet to watch the Hawkeyethenoo race but it appears as though we could have had EW terms down to 12th and still lost out, it was that bad. I won’t dwell on that, but maybe I need to start focusing more on those with more progressive profiles/younger legs – bar the odd Al Co thrown in every now and then. Still, that run has to go down as below par. It will be interesting to see what he does for the rest of the season, but I doubt my money will be on him again. 

Epsom winner…the TTP systems had a decent winner yesterday – those with the TTP guide may have noted that I left the odds cap off. Johnston was 0/8,0 places with such runners for that micro above 7/1 but on reflection I decided that was too small a pool for now-  clearly it worked out well yesterday and I hope any followers of those systems were on. Odds are always a guide of course – a useful one, but his stats with those over 7/1 are now 1/9. The systems brought in around +20 points yesterday – much needed in these quarters! 

Right, enjoy your Derby Day. Hopefully I can add to the party. 

***

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Cheers Josh…good deal the 5 places, even if Sky only gave me £7.14 e/w (Betfair have cut into 10s now, but they’d have only given me 20p!). Will wait for the market to settle tomorrow to see if I put the remainder on. Good luck,
    Paul

  2. 100% strike rate rate on the micros today well done,was happy enough leaving out Gold Ingot today on jockey booking,win some lose some on those decisions,still decent return on day

  3. Epsom Saturday – what do we think about the going?

    Duke of Firenze ‘s target is the dash, 3.45. His win LTO messed up his price. How will he go on the ground?

    Also Arabian Queen each way, 3.10 at 16/1 and Yorkidding, 5.15, 11/1 each way.

    Falcao, 5.25 Curragh, is expected to win, 6/1.

    1. Duke of Firenze has a great chance of following up but is opposable on odds alone for me, in a race of this nature. Those that won LTO have yet to follow up in this race, but in handicapping terms, on old form, he is fine – a slight concern that he will get stuck behind a wall of horses here and will need plenty of luck in running – which he got when he won this a few years ago. He has won on soft, in a C2. Others may think he is a decent price of course.
      Good luck with your other bets.

      1. I’m at Epsom for the very first time. Bit strange for a NH fan – not a fence to be seen anywhere. As it happens I shared a few jars with the connections of Duke of Firenze last evening. Very confident of at least a place

        1. Graham, which connections were you talking to? The same ones I know? This has been the plan for six months. I appreciate there are quite a few runners to beat.

          I also like Prince of Arran in the 2.00 and Zanetto in the last. Good luck and don’t drink too much!

          1. Martin. It was one of the owners plus the guy who will be leading it up. Probably best not to mention names. Bit too late now on the drinking advice!

  4. Stats angle:

    4.05 Worcs – First Avenue 14/1
    Mongan and Cannon team up. Horse won this race of a much higher mark last year. I’ve had to have a tickle e/w myself

  5. My Saturday picks are:
    Alejandro Musselburgh 16:00
    Nessita Lingfield 18:20
    Juste Pour Nous Musselburgh 15:25
    Roys Legacy Newcastle 21:10

    Given Sky have kindly offered 5 places for the Derby have had small bets on Massaat and Humphrey Bogart. Looks way too open to touch anything in single figures.

  6. Hopefully Laura Mongan will have a good day Ali,I have done Keppel Isle in the 2.20 and Kai Broom 4.45 Hexham,Was a toss up between him and Seventeen Black,hoping blinkers will spark him into life at a course he has won at.There are some qualifiers at the curragh,will leave first alone,too many possibilities, but 7.30 just the one

  7. Backed HUMPHREY BOGART in the Derby with bet victor 40/1 also like ZANETTO in the 5.50 7/1 think Humphrey got a decent ew chance got form at Epsom and probably improving decent speed figure LTO

  8. EW Derby shot – Red Verdon – been looking at that Betdaq/Proform tool he tops a lot of lists Sire4 Course / Distance / Going, Trainer / Jockey combo & has traded in-running 5/5 at 10% of his BSP, don’t recall seeing that before….

  9. Three bets from Worcs 14.55 Festival Affair 6.1, 15.30 Novemberstorm 15.2, 16.05 First Avenue 14.1 Good Luck everyone.

  10. M JOHNSTON could have a field day at musselburgh today, only problem is winkling out the right ones!!! chanced my arm with HUNTLAW and JUSTE POUR NOUS, good luck whatever your on today.

  11. Josh, re JUST PAUL, I agree about the Beverley run, and that he is well placed to win soon. However, a word of caution in that in fields of 12 or more he is 0/1/16. Also, if you watch the last run at Musselbrugh again, he actually fades from two and a half furlongs out. He has also won at Beverley over a mile so stamina was not the issue last time and it could well be that he is better at seven furlongs, Maybe the race did come too soon though as you mentioned or it is the ‘Hammond’ conundrum about when his horses hit form.

    1. Yep, you raise some good points but I thought at the double figure price he was worth a stab. It could be he has gone out of form as quickly as he looked to have come into it! I think that Beverley win was technically 7.5 furlongs – but take your general point -he did look beat before stamina was a factor. The field point is interesting – there is enough big field form – a few <1l defeats in 4th etc in big fields, to suggest that it may just be how races have panned out/competitiveness - rather than the horse hating being surrounded etc. We shall see, on paper there appears a lot in his favour and at 12s was more than happy to have some interest.

          1. hmm, was interesting…normally does sit just behind and he popped out of stalls and was reigned back. Maybe we should wait until a small field. Well handicapped but clearly finds winning hard!

  12. Josh, Re Hawkeyethenoo – I think there may have been a going bias over that trip yesterday. One thing I make a note of in a finish, is when you can draw a straight, diagonal line in the last part of a race of where the horses end up. Hawkeye was taken up the far rail and was probably not good enough on the day anyway. What I would suggest is you look at the race again and freeze the picture as the winner crosses the line, and you will see a very neat diagonal line. I think he was possibly on the slow part of the track and I would not give up on him just yet as he did quicken for a short burst.

    1. Ah thanks Richard. Yep I do need to watch a replay and I will look out for that. His last run showed much promise and last year he showed plenty of ability at times – so maybe not one to give up on just yet and he could be in the right grade now- albeit always susceptible to something on the upgrade.

  13. Hi Guys.
    Glamour racing today as we all know but I don’t get involved unless I have got a strong opinion.
    With that in mind I will put forward a few that I will get involved with today. Firstly Kai Broon 4.45
    Hexham, CD winner, down in class and handicap and with decent claimer. Also blinkered first time.
    Secondly Chebsey Beau Doncaster 3.40 as Rab Havlin stays to ride this and was gambled last time
    but taken out. Guessing a bit here so tentative selection. Lastly Ghurka Friend Newcastle 8.10.
    Stats not great for trainer and no handle on draw but had it down for a mile and jockey no mug.

  14. Hi
    Looking at Marsha in 6pm race @ The Curragh heard that the trainer thinks highly of horse, working very well on gallops Any thoughts?

  15. Well nothing changed with Links Drive Lady. Well backed overnight and was steady on Betfair until about 20 minutes before off time.
    Then the usual drift. From 8.4 to 14 at one time. This seems to be the pattern with all the horses I back. Why I dont know.
    It ran just like all the others. Never looking like winning.
    They just dont look like they are wanted. Maybe they will all win next time, I hope so as i’m getting frustrated with the game.
    Hours and hours of study and nothing to show for it. But I will never give up.

      1. I know what would happen if I became a layer. They would all start winning.
        Thats why i’m sticking with the one’s ive been backing.
        At least when they get beat they drop down the handicap

  16. There isn’t much to go on in terms of race trends for the 3.25 at Muss but 3,5,7,9,10,13 make a shorter list. At the prices Sunglider and Tartan Bute are 2 e/w stabs I’ll have a go at today. Off in a minute!!

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