3.45 EPSOM DASH
Mukaynis – 1 point EW – 4 places 4th – (phew!).. +3 points on race… a decent run but just not quite had the speed over 5f at this track – staying on well enough near the end. A stiffer 5f or back to 6f on a more conventional track may see him to better effect – he looks like he has a decent pot in him. Kimberella was very unlucky there – with a clean start would have won that ‘comfortably’ for a sprint, you would think. Caspian Prince has run a cracker after a break, his highest winning mark to date in handicaps. That track clearly plays to his strengths. Part relieved to get some sort of run for my money.
Where to start with this one then.
Well, let’s start with a few trends and stats that I used with a guide. I used 4: NOT a 3yo (poor record to date, only one in here and arrives after a break,happy to leave regardless of this stat) / 1-7 career wins (8+ 0/43, 11 places) / Top 3 on one of last 3 starts (Did not – 1/107, 15 places) / NOT C6 on first ever run (o/30 odd,0 places)
That little lot doesn’t cut it down by much and leaves a long shortlist of: Maljaa / Caspian Prince / Boomthegroom / Harry Hurricane / Roudee / Duke of Firenze / Secretinthepark / Kimberella / Mukaynis / SandFran… /
So, that is a useful starting point, but only that.
Next…I had a look at my Class 2 Sprint Handicap Notes (READ HERE>>>) to see what stood out…
- T Dascombe: 0/43,11 places in this race type (all stats last 3 full seasons + 16′)
- Clive Cox: 1/37, 10 places in this race type – but his horse is well versed at this level)
- Peter Crate: 0/22, 2 places in race type – has the bottom horse – who is also 0/6, 0 places C2
- Robert Cowell: 1/50,6 places in this race type with those going off 10/1 or bigger. A lot of money will need to come for his two. Clearly that won’t stop them, but his unfancied ones are hard to pick out
- O’Meara: 0/29,3 places with those going off 16/1+
- Roger Varian: Maljaa QUALIFIES on the micro for him here, stats are 5/15,11 places with this type. A negative is his draw (4-7 are 0/75,9 places – could just be random or something to do with how races pan out/track) And those that have only had 1 seasonal run do ok, but no better. And, he is short enough I think.
- Kevin Ryan: Mukaynis – QUALIFIES on the main angle and the one that is 7/24,13 places since 2013, +52 SP.
Let’s start with him here. This 5yo looks to be on the upgrade to me with plenty more to come. Since the blinkers were fitted 3 starts ago he hasn’t looked back. He somewhat bolted up at Haydock in a C3, 6f race – winning that well, leading all the way and showing blistering speed – to the eye. He returned at Kempton on the AW- missed the start a tad but soon recovered to get the lead and he kept fighting in what has turned out to be a decent race. There was a decent gap back to the third (he may have done too much and/or needed the run near the end) The winner has since come out and placed twice in decent C2s at Newbury and Newmarket. The 3 that finished behind him that day have all come out and won since. So, there is some substance. Then we move onto Chester – I am not sure if he missed the start (which would be a slight concern here) , the jockey was asleep, or it was deliberate (seemed to sit down on him) for some reason! Either way he tracked a ferocious pace (i think showing that he has the speed for this fast 5f- which is also a niggle,built into his price for me) and got stuck behind traffic – the jockey sat motionless for ages and by the time he got out the winner had flown, and he hardly anytime to get into gear. He wasn’t given a hard time after that – all over in a flash. But, it showed that he was in form.
Kevin Ryan is in form 10/51 last 14 days, performing 25% above market expectations, 37% have placed. He doesn’t have the greatest record here but is 7/76 at the track and at 16s that is no reason to be put off I don’t think.
This horse does have more to come – he hasn’t finished improving yet I doubt, and he could have a bit in hand. With a clear run he would have gone very close LTO. he stays 6f, which may be no bad thing given the pace they may go here but as I said to my eye looks like he has the speed for this. He has won on good to soft so the ground should be fine. Good is fine also – it wont be Good to Firm.
PACE – is fascinating here – my word there are a lot of front runners in here – importantly he is drawn 18 and the two on his outside, 19+20 do not usually try and lead all the way, more sitting off the pace or being held up. IF he breaks on terms there is a chance that he can get across to that near side rail. I hope they make plenty of use of him, to avoid any traffic problems, and he looks sure to run a massive race to my eye.
The pin was luck enough to land on the winner of this last season – but as always in these races you need plenty of luck. I think this one looks ready to roll here and if he is comfortably in the front rank after the first couple – in a comfort zone, I will start to get excited. As I said I think his stamina will help here – if he has the pace to hold an early position – and as others fold hopefully he keeps battling away. With a clear run, given his last three runs, I would like to think he would be in the shake-up, hence the EW bet.
Of the rest….well if I have time in the morning I will go into more depth but the two others that interested me were Boom The Groom and Green Door – the latter is interesting because the trainer is in form and the visor returns. But, his recent runs have been very underwhelming and given the size of the pot, and the trainer, i am surprised a pro isn’t on board – I would have thought if he was expected to go well someone else would be up – not because the lad up isn’t any good – he is very good – I may have read that completely wrong – his jockey wont be the reason he doesn’t win. Interesting if money comes. Boom The Groom – I think I backed him last year also where he came third. I don’t like the 70 day break or the fact he raced on the AW LTO. I see no automatic reason why he would go 2 places better than last year- but clearly handles conditions – also I think Good to Firm is best, but then he has ran well here in Heavy – so who knows. Kirby is booked and I may have some ‘saver change’ on – but I find it odd they haven’t got a run into him here – a problem maybe. Caspian Prince is interesting and he is fast – again the 100 day break is a concern and he was kept busy in Meydan- He won well at York off only a couple of lbs lower so that may not stop him- but at the same time something else in here – hopefully the selection – will have more in hand.
So, that will do for now. As always happy to explain why I have left something else if asked- my note pad is rather full. Mainly there are issues around current form and/or handicap mark for quite a few in here – not too many that look upwardly mobile yet plenty that are a few pounds above last winning marks etc.
That will be all for tips on Saturday.
3.45 Epsom: Desert Law (18/1<) NR
8.40 Newc: Tanawar (any odds) (not sure if Ruth is going a bit cold or not!) UP 25/1
9.10 Newc: Orient Class (18/1<) UP 11/2>3/1
TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS
3.40 Donc: High Baroque (16/1<) NR
5.15 Epsom: Duretto (any) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.40 Muss: Just Paul 12/1 – UP (poor run,clearly Bev run was deceptive! Doesn’t look like he is about to win anytime soon on that basis. Very on paced) anyone with geegeez gold will see why this one jumps of the page using the instant expert tab – all race conditions suits and he is 18lb below his last winning mark. He is 3/7,4 places over CD in flat handicaps – he does like it here and if he is going to win again it will surely be here. Many in here have questions to answer against race conditions but he doesn’t. He likes to track the pace and is well drawn to do so. As well as the CD form which catches the eye, it is his seasonal reappearance over 7f that went into many people’s notebooks I think – he just go no run, a couple of times, and his jockey had to sit and suffer. It was the run of a horse who looked on good terms with himself. He came out 7 days later over 8f (where he is now 0/8,2 places) and faded over 1 furlong out – it could also be that he needed longer between runs. On that basis, returned to his optimum conditions, I am happy to take the chance at the odds. Micky Hammond is a bit like Jim Goldie in terms of stable form – very hard to predict and can be very hot and cold. He is 2/32 in the last 14 days – maybe a concern – but he was 0/30 odd in the 16 days or so before that, so in that sense he is in ok form! He is only 2/55 at the track, and has yet to win with this horse- but the horses form here makes that stat irrelevant. If he runs like he did at Beverley, he shouldn’t be far away.
That is all for today. I have’t had time to look through the Flat or Jumps TTP, but if there is anything eye-catching that you fancy then do comment away.
The Derby – I like watching classy races but I rarely bet too much in them, especially on the flat and in races like this – with so many unknowns – a few are going to step forward massively for this trip and it appears a few of you agree on some tasty EW nibbles so I may just follow you fine judges in with a small interest bet. It was brilliant to watch Minding yesterday – all class- and all stamina as well.
I have yet to watch the Hawkeyethenoo race but it appears as though we could have had EW terms down to 12th and still lost out, it was that bad. I won’t dwell on that, but maybe I need to start focusing more on those with more progressive profiles/younger legs – bar the odd Al Co thrown in every now and then. Still, that run has to go down as below par. It will be interesting to see what he does for the rest of the season, but I doubt my money will be on him again.
Epsom winner…the TTP systems had a decent winner yesterday – those with the TTP guide may have noted that I left the odds cap off. Johnston was 0/8,0 places with such runners for that micro above 7/1 but on reflection I decided that was too small a pool for now- clearly it worked out well yesterday and I hope any followers of those systems were on. Odds are always a guide of course – a useful one, but his stats with those over 7/1 are now 1/9. The systems brought in around +20 points yesterday – much needed in these quarters!
Right, enjoy your Derby Day. Hopefully I can add to the party.