No luck in the big tipping race of the day – and I think it very much was a question of luck this time (and that is sometimes the way in these races)- they were simply not running on the fastest ground which was the far side. Hard to predict. It was annoying that there turned out to be no pace middle to high, (front runner withdrawn and the other one never traveled) as that would have helped Hoof It get a tad closer maybe. I thought there would be more pace high, but some usual hold up horses were sent to the front low also. But, they both ran well enough and no complaints. That is how it goes in those races and on form the winner was no shock,(on trainer/jockey stats he was!!) but I will rarely take single odds in a race like that – with that mindset it means over time I would be more likely to talk myself out of/ignore bigger priced horses. And that is where the decent profit is, over time. I did make a case for the second to myself so on one hand glad he didn’t get up,and on the other pleased he was close in my thinking. A cross went next to the other placed horses and I wasn’t close to backing them this time.
There looks to be a clear track bias to me and low is the place to be. We shall see if that is the case on day 2 but I dare say many jocks will head over that side and if they are low will want a good position.
I have now completed this stats guide for 8 summer jumping tracks. You cant get your free copy at the link below…
York Notes…there were not too many horses that they pointed to today, but one of them was the Gosden Handicap winner 8/1>5/1 (who became interesting around the 13/2 mark,stats wise!!) So, hopefully some of you may have had a nibble on him.
Your fine readers were on fire again yesterday. With a little help from my guide there was a decent 14/1 winner put up at Naas by Gerry (he won’t do that every time, you should just buy a guide at link below 🙂 – Gerry is now +20 points just from the Bonus Irish stats in the guide, not bad at all) and one at Bath. Mike also highlighted a few from the stats guide which included a nice 22/1 3rd at York, a decent EW return there. Martin topped the lot, as has been the case a few times, with some ‘info’ from someone in the know who expected a big run from their horse – 20/1>18/1>12/1 WON. Super. I can’t remember if there were more dotted about also, probably. I look forward to reading the comments as they develop through the day!!
Desert Law – 1/2 point EW + 1/2 point win – 25/1 UP
Son of Africa – 1.5 points win – 12/1 (general) UP
Thesme – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) * 3rd
-4 points on race
*prices as of 08.45. As always shop around for the best odds. 4 points total.
Another easy race in which to invest our hard earned on, eh?! I just can’t resist these races and I hope the pins may have landed on the right ones this time.
The first thing to say is that it looks like there is a draw bias, low side. It simply looks like the ground is faster that side and if the track dries out at an even rate I can’t see how it won’t be the same today. Unless somehow it evens up. Clearly we all know what will happen now – high will dominate!!- and in that case I will need a stiff drink and a lie down. The maiden was most interesting given Burke’s 33/1 poke drifted right across the track from the low side and very nearly got up to win. The lows dominated over the two sprint races also. Finally, most of the pace is low – or I should say there is plenty of pace low to take advantage of any bias – there is some high- but it may be case of it doesn’t matter how quickly they go as lows will just have the natural turf advantage. More on that in a moment. Oh, and if it is as sunny in York as it is in Liverpool this morning (believe they are set fair) then you would think it will be on the fast side?..
Desert Law – I can’t have this one going off at 25/1 given his liking for York, his liking for good to firm, the fact that he is draw 1, is a prominent racer and if he can edge left and bad the rail could well be on the golden highway. That may alleviate a slight niggle about his rating – but , he ran superbly last season, including not being too far away off 3lb higher and just seemed to be getting better. He hardly ran a bad race in handicap company and a repeat of any of those efforts should see him right there. Trainer form is an obvious concern but if you can’t look over that at 25/1 then you never will. Having had a look through his form a few have gone ok, esp those more fancied, and a lot of his have been 25/1+ and maybe not expected to run well. Of course, they may just be sick, and if that is the case then 1.5 points has been temporarily loaned back to the bookies. (I have done a lot of that recently, it will return, with interest, at some point!) But, if he is fine, he should be running a big race in here. He ticks plenty of boxes and with his pace/draw, was a must bet at those odds.
Son of Africa – runs for the inform Henry Candy who doesn’t tilt at windmills when he sends a horse to this track – 4/14 in the last 5 seasons. This one really is in the ‘could be anything’ category and everything looks set for a big run. He will relish the ground, the trip looks ideal, and could have any amount of progress in him this year as a 4 year old. He has run some decent races, including at Sandown where he didn’t get much of a run. He won on his second start last season and I am hoping for more of the same here. James Doyle could be the ‘go to’ jockey for this horse given he won on him in a nursery and was put back on for that G3 at Sandown. They would appear to get on well together. He could have plenty in hand and he should come on for his last run where he was keen – that should have hopefully knocked the fizz out of him. He is drawn OK in 7, and with 3 front runners on his inside, with Thesme not too far away in 10, there shouldn’t be too many excuses. He has been sent o the front in some of his runs and held up out the back. I hope it is the former – or tracking the pace at worst. We should get a good spin from this one and I would be disappointed if he didnt go well. Of course there is always the chance that he doesn’t like the track.
Thesme – well she hasn’t done much wrong and is also still in the ‘could be anything’ category. She clearly likes this course and distance and you would think this has been the early season target. She will blast out of stall 10 and should be up there from the off, hopefully edging further and further to the other side! If the jockey brings her stands side after yesterday then he should find another profession for me. She will need to step up a bit on last season but that is possible and she looks to be going the right way. If she were drawn 5 or lower then I may have had a bit more on her – she could get marooned up the centre but at 12s, happy to have a poke.
Of the rest? well as always plenty you could make a case for. In terms of Pace – Red Barron will blast out low – but, he is now 10lbs above his last winning mark when including jock claims and I would like to think something with more up their sleeve will get him here. It would be some performance for him to lead all the way…and he shouldn’t get an easy lead- if he does he may be doing too much. Normal E can also go along but may want it softer, won an ok race at Epsom but then bombed out last time – he has some questions for me and I wonder if he is at this level – it could be happening too quickly for him, Of those high – Dr S for Simcock can go along but this is his first run of the season and the Ryan horse can also go forward – Brando- but he is a silly price and has to prove he likes this surface – he might. I am Jamie Spencer’s biggest fan I think but his handicap record here in the last two seasons isnt great – 0/32, 7 places – maybe not a track he rides too well or just the horses he has been on. Lucky Beggar can also lead but he is a character and could well suffer from horse claustrophobia- doesnt look like he relished having other runners around him – likes to race alone- and he may well sulk from half way. There appears to be more sustained pace low,and it looks like they are on the faster turf.
Duke of Frienze is interesting and possibly worth a saver as it may set up for him on the low side. But, his best recent form has been in soft so a concern about this fast ground and his Epsom run was in an ok race, but nowhere near up to this level. I think he has a bit to prove in a race of this nature for me but he is well handicapped. 0/4, 1p on good to firm (which i think it will be his side at least) Also 0/2,0p over CD. Dr S for Simcock is unexposed so that type can never be written off but he could be on the wrong side and has to prove himself at this level. Fast Track has a bit to find but if money comes that may be significant. His draw may be ok albeit he has another break to overcome and is now 0/9,3 p OR 91+. Toofi is the other interesting one. The draw is a slight niggle but I am backing one in 10. The break would be a concern, coming up a few race fit ones. His mark may be on the high side but he clearly has a touch of class. Cowell is 0/17,5 places with all runners her last 730 days – not too bad I suppose considering. And, we know he does well with this type in time and he think a sprinters best years can be when aged 5/6/7. Not out of the question, but again, he will need to improve and others in here may have more in hand.
The rest have a cross next to them on my notepad for one reason or another.
Yesterday’s ran well enough and hopefully these three can do the same. Everything is crossed, and will need to be!
A. King Flat: 5.20 York – Grumeti (16/1<)
Meehan Maidens (any odds): 3.35 Salis – Malmoosa – 2nd 14/1>9/1
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES FLAT: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
York (all 9/1<)
3.45 : Alfred Hutchinson / Birdman / Lord of the Land
5.20 : Alphabetical Order
Newmarket (all 16/1<)
7.55: Crowning Glory
8.25: Golden Stunner
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None today, enough going on above for me + there will be some in the comments no doubt!
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…
I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners.