No luck in the big tipping race of the day – and I think it very much was a question of luck this time (and that is sometimes the way in these races)- they were simply not running on the fastest ground which was the far side. Hard to predict. It was annoying that there turned out to be no pace middle to high, (front runner withdrawn and the other one never traveled) as that would have helped Hoof It get a tad closer maybe. I thought there would be more pace high, but some usual hold up horses were sent to the front low also. But, they both ran well enough and no complaints. That is how it goes in those races and on form the winner was no shock,(on trainer/jockey stats he was!!) but I will rarely take single odds in a race like that – with that mindset it means over time I would be more likely to talk myself out of/ignore bigger priced horses. And that is where the decent profit is, over time. I did make a case for the second to myself so on one hand glad he didn’t get up,and on the other pleased he was close in my thinking. A cross went next to the other placed horses and I wasn’t close to backing them this time.
There looks to be a clear track bias to me and low is the place to be. We shall see if that is the case on day 2 but I dare say many jocks will head over that side and if they are low will want a good position.
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SUMMER JUMPS
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York Notes…there were not too many horses that they pointed to today, but one of them was the Gosden Handicap winner 8/1>5/1 (who became interesting around the 13/2 mark,stats wise!!) So, hopefully some of you may have had a nibble on him.
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Your fine readers were on fire again yesterday. With a little help from my guide there was a decent 14/1 winner put up at Naas by Gerry (he won’t do that every time, you should just buy a guide at link below 🙂 – Gerry is now +20 points just from the Bonus Irish stats in the guide, not bad at all) and one at Bath. Mike also highlighted a few from the stats guide which included a nice 22/1 3rd at York, a decent EW return there. Martin topped the lot, as has been the case a few times, with some ‘info’ from someone in the know who expected a big run from their horse – 20/1>18/1>12/1 WON. Super. I can’t remember if there were more dotted about also, probably. I look forward to reading the comments as they develop through the day!!
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TIPS
2.10 York
Desert Law – 1/2 point EW + 1/2 point win – 25/1 UP
Son of Africa – 1.5 points win – 12/1 (general) UP
Thesme – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) * 3rd
-4 points on race
*prices as of 08.45. As always shop around for the best odds. 4 points total.
Another easy race in which to invest our hard earned on, eh?! I just can’t resist these races and I hope the pins may have landed on the right ones this time.
The first thing to say is that it looks like there is a draw bias, low side. It simply looks like the ground is faster that side and if the track dries out at an even rate I can’t see how it won’t be the same today. Unless somehow it evens up. Clearly we all know what will happen now – high will dominate!!- and in that case I will need a stiff drink and a lie down. The maiden was most interesting given Burke’s 33/1 poke drifted right across the track from the low side and very nearly got up to win. The lows dominated over the two sprint races also. Finally, most of the pace is low – or I should say there is plenty of pace low to take advantage of any bias – there is some high- but it may be case of it doesn’t matter how quickly they go as lows will just have the natural turf advantage. More on that in a moment. Oh, and if it is as sunny in York as it is in Liverpool this morning (believe they are set fair) then you would think it will be on the fast side?..
Desert Law – I can’t have this one going off at 25/1 given his liking for York, his liking for good to firm, the fact that he is draw 1, is a prominent racer and if he can edge left and bad the rail could well be on the golden highway. That may alleviate a slight niggle about his rating – but , he ran superbly last season, including not being too far away off 3lb higher and just seemed to be getting better. He hardly ran a bad race in handicap company and a repeat of any of those efforts should see him right there. Trainer form is an obvious concern but if you can’t look over that at 25/1 then you never will. Having had a look through his form a few have gone ok, esp those more fancied, and a lot of his have been 25/1+ and maybe not expected to run well. Of course, they may just be sick, and if that is the case then 1.5 points has been temporarily loaned back to the bookies. (I have done a lot of that recently, it will return, with interest, at some point!) But, if he is fine, he should be running a big race in here. He ticks plenty of boxes and with his pace/draw, was a must bet at those odds.
Son of Africa – runs for the inform Henry Candy who doesn’t tilt at windmills when he sends a horse to this track – 4/14 in the last 5 seasons. This one really is in the ‘could be anything’ category and everything looks set for a big run. He will relish the ground, the trip looks ideal, and could have any amount of progress in him this year as a 4 year old. He has run some decent races, including at Sandown where he didn’t get much of a run. He won on his second start last season and I am hoping for more of the same here. James Doyle could be the ‘go to’ jockey for this horse given he won on him in a nursery and was put back on for that G3 at Sandown. They would appear to get on well together. He could have plenty in hand and he should come on for his last run where he was keen – that should have hopefully knocked the fizz out of him. He is drawn OK in 7, and with 3 front runners on his inside, with Thesme not too far away in 10, there shouldn’t be too many excuses. He has been sent o the front in some of his runs and held up out the back. I hope it is the former – or tracking the pace at worst. We should get a good spin from this one and I would be disappointed if he didnt go well. Of course there is always the chance that he doesn’t like the track.
Thesme – well she hasn’t done much wrong and is also still in the ‘could be anything’ category. She clearly likes this course and distance and you would think this has been the early season target. She will blast out of stall 10 and should be up there from the off, hopefully edging further and further to the other side! If the jockey brings her stands side after yesterday then he should find another profession for me. She will need to step up a bit on last season but that is possible and she looks to be going the right way. If she were drawn 5 or lower then I may have had a bit more on her – she could get marooned up the centre but at 12s, happy to have a poke.
Of the rest? well as always plenty you could make a case for. In terms of Pace – Red Barron will blast out low – but, he is now 10lbs above his last winning mark when including jock claims and I would like to think something with more up their sleeve will get him here. It would be some performance for him to lead all the way…and he shouldn’t get an easy lead- if he does he may be doing too much. Normal E can also go along but may want it softer, won an ok race at Epsom but then bombed out last time – he has some questions for me and I wonder if he is at this level – it could be happening too quickly for him, Of those high – Dr S for Simcock can go along but this is his first run of the season and the Ryan horse can also go forward – Brando- but he is a silly price and has to prove he likes this surface – he might. I am Jamie Spencer’s biggest fan I think but his handicap record here in the last two seasons isnt great – 0/32, 7 places – maybe not a track he rides too well or just the horses he has been on. Lucky Beggar can also lead but he is a character and could well suffer from horse claustrophobia- doesnt look like he relished having other runners around him – likes to race alone- and he may well sulk from half way. There appears to be more sustained pace low,and it looks like they are on the faster turf.
Duke of Frienze is interesting and possibly worth a saver as it may set up for him on the low side. But, his best recent form has been in soft so a concern about this fast ground and his Epsom run was in an ok race, but nowhere near up to this level. I think he has a bit to prove in a race of this nature for me but he is well handicapped. 0/4, 1p on good to firm (which i think it will be his side at least) Also 0/2,0p over CD. Dr S for Simcock is unexposed so that type can never be written off but he could be on the wrong side and has to prove himself at this level. Fast Track has a bit to find but if money comes that may be significant. His draw may be ok albeit he has another break to overcome and is now 0/9,3 p OR 91+. Toofi is the other interesting one. The draw is a slight niggle but I am backing one in 10. The break would be a concern, coming up a few race fit ones. His mark may be on the high side but he clearly has a touch of class. Cowell is 0/17,5 places with all runners her last 730 days – not too bad I suppose considering. And, we know he does well with this type in time and he think a sprinters best years can be when aged 5/6/7. Not out of the question, but again, he will need to improve and others in here may have more in hand.
The rest have a cross next to them on my notepad for one reason or another.
Yesterday’s ran well enough and hopefully these three can do the same. Everything is crossed, and will need to be!
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Other
A. King Flat: 5.20 York – Grumeti (16/1<)
Meehan Maidens (any odds): 3.35 Salis – Malmoosa – 2nd 14/1>9/1
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES FLAT: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
York (all 9/1<)
3.45 : Alfred Hutchinson / Birdman / Lord of the Land
5.20 : Alphabetical Order
Newmarket (all 16/1<)
7.55: Crowning Glory
8.25: Golden Stunner
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None today, enough going on above for me + there will be some in the comments no doubt!
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Post complete.
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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…
I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners.
67 Responses
A good result from Dovils Duel, I was on at 7/1 with no deductions for non runners and so thanks for who put that one up.
Duke of Firenze goes in the 2.10 at York and is currently 14/1. Ideally the 5F would be downhill for him, such as Epsom etc but I am unsure if York will suit him?
Interesting looking at the 2.10 at York tomorrow. 7 out of last 8 winners were drawn 5 or lower. I’ve dutched Arctic Feeling and Duke of Firenze as stalls 4 and 5 seem to fair well. All decent prices so much smaller saver stakes on 1,2 and 3. Worth a pop just based on draw history alone.
How did you get 7/1 with no deductions Martin? I backed it the night before at that price and ended up with around 4/1!
Timing, he did say when bet struck after a couple of withdrawals they were still 7/s with that bookie – must have been backed since.
There was an offer on paddy power. I did double check what they paid me.
I took 3 of the inside numbers. & took 14s on Duke of Firenze….once again, thanks Marttin.
Brilliant run from Duke of Firenze. Cheers Martin.
i took 13/2 yesterday and got hit with a 45p R4 lol…still a winner..
Going with a couple of unique profiles for their races tomorrow:
2.10 Toofi 10/1
New trainer with good record in past year for inherited horses. Cracking runs in high class races over 6f. First time over 5f tomorrow
3.45 Glory Awaits 33/1
Yard firing. Simcock’s already provided a few unfancied winners here. Horse a Grp2 winner and Grp1 runner-up. 14lbs below highest mark. Jockey suggests this is Simcock’s first string (not sure about that though – someone please confirm)
*14 below highest rating. just realised weight’s not affected since he wasnt running in h’caps. Bur still, a graded animal running in a handicap is always interesting
Somehow you have picked two horses boxed ’11’ – 6% strike rate!
1/one did manage to win last year from 59 previous runnings of races on this card??
yeah coincidence! that draw’s fine for the 2.10 but not ideal for the 3.45
i mean, im sure plenty of horses have placed and run good races from 11
The figs have done well in this race before:
210 York
cdg & 3 of 4 of my top rated
Duke Of Firenze 8-8
Normal Equilibrium 8-7
Adam´s Ale 8-4 (the one not in my top4 but silly 48’s ((19’s Corals)) on betfair)
Lucky Beggar 8-7
It might just be a fluke as the stalls have been positioned all over the track over the years but low draws have done well in this race 7 of the 8 runnings & box 4 & 5 have won 5 times, box 4 had a good day yesterday (3 or 4 winners)
So the Racing Post tipster could be right, of the above, Duke Of Firenze, stall 4 seems best positioned?
Lucky Beggar trainer Charles Hills bumped his way into top 10/15 trainers for month (of May last 2 years) with One Trick attempts yesterday.
Stall 4 rides again – good call..
ty, stall 4 had the next race too… & I just let the CDG horse Urban Kode go unbacked (jockey first ride I think) but a good day, quit while I’m ahead lol
Yes good call Andy. Cheers.
dolphin vilage 6.45 newmarket, stable as good strike rate with older horses here, 20/1 365 looks nice for e/w poke.
Been down at Elvedon for a few days at Centre Parcs, rained all day Tuesday, and yesterday morning, played golf yesterday, Course sodden, so if you are backing at Newmarket, might be wise to wait for proper Going report as unlikely to be “Firm” as reported in some papers this morning.
According to the BHA site they watered at Newmarket last night (6mm). Watering should be banned in my opinion and the turf left to nature.. We rarely have true fast ground any more but some Clerks are worse than others, especially that one in the North West!
Fast ground = increase in injury and fatalities (fact) #justsayin. Clerks have no choice but to do what’s morally and ethically right in time before racing starts. To wait for weather that may not come would mean racing abandoned as most owners would declare Nr on v fast ground.
I agree Jim but I am less than 10 miles away and believe me we have had at least 12 hours of heavy rain in the past 36 hours so to water seems frankly incredible!
yeh I can see frustration but we can only trust the clerk to make the right call and be professional. If they are found to be consistently making the wrong call or trying to effect the ground to suit certain groups/individuals then I am sure it would be dealt with.
I still disagree, It is leading to the softening of the breed and a less robust stock. There is more than enough good and soft going throughout the year, just don’t run your horse if you think the ground is too fast for it. There are regular fatalities on the gallops so the argument about fast ground as a reason for constant watering and producing false ground, does not hold ‘water’! The abandonment at Windsor on Monday had probably something to do with past watering, encouraging false going. Horses can just as easily be injured in those circumstances as well.
The only reason I comment on this RIchard as I have been an owner and know a few owners and they/we have always concluded that minimising the risk of death and injury to horses and jockeys has to paramount when watering choices are made. I am sure if you ask any professional in the sport they would concur. The imAge of racing is so important nowadays that your point about the robustness of stock may be correct as owners and racecourse will avoid fatalities on the racecourse at all costs. Injuries on the gallops happen under the trainers watch although I am sure you would find that most are now all weather gallops and trainers will only gallop on grass if it’s not to hard.
Last point from me on this as I don’t want it to take over Josh’s blog post and I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree. The aim of every racecourse is to produce consistent GOOD ground, ask them. This would suit 99% of trainers/owners etc. The clerks can’t stop rain but they can stop dryness. They will always take good to soft over firm. Most trainers will accept good to firm but would much prefer a bit of jjuice in the ground. This can be achieved if the weather gods are with you but as we all know it’s not always that simple. This is an area of racing that has been reasearched over the years to address the injury/fatality stats and it has greatly improved these figures. So despite personal annoyment now and again that has to be a good thing? I don’t know Windsor racecourse well and I can see your point there. not sure risking fast ground is the answer though.
Last point – I have followed racing for over forty years – Bath is the only Flat track that does not have the watering facility and has true fast ground – I cannot recall one horse breaking down when I have watched racing from there.
http://Www.horsedeathwatch.com 11 fatalities in the last 10 years at Bath.
What was the going and what were the circumstances? Meaningless without that information.
Received tips for 3.45 at York from the 2 paid services I use, both small monthly fees, both deliver nice long term profit from decent priced horses; sp2a elite at 8.45am and Nick Pullen Against The Crowd received at 9.35am, both go for same 2 horses, Birdman and Master of The World, since I am 99.99% sure they have no links to each other, and their explanations are very similarly constructed, will be having a small each way on both.
My best bet of the day is Resolute reformer 4.25 Perth. Was firing on all cylinders last April but not shown much of anything since, 14s last night now around 9s. It’s worth taking a chance as Coltherd is still in the peak of his season before his runners drop off the radar for another year? I’ve done a win bet on this as it’s going to be all or nothing in my opinion! Great stuff with the stats guide yesterday Josh got on godsend as soon as it hit the odds and saved my day lol
yep can see why you would have a nibble at that price in what is an awful race – the good/decent ground may see him in better light and this looks like his trip – stays further. Hmm. May have a little go myself at those odds. everything in here has something to prove of sorts. He could just be out of form but is very well handicapped now while still being lightly raced. Could have been well placed here.
Since 2007 Coltherd is just 2/58 at Perth. I look out for him in April at Hexham/Carlisle/Sedgefield/Kelso which seem to be his preference.
I will email you a system for Coltherd that I’ve been using . 33 bets 8 wins 14 places for 31 points @sp but taking evening prices it’s been quite a bit more.
Thank you James, that would be great.
Haha I replied to the wrong comment Richard, I emailed Josh my system for Coltherd but I’m happy to send you a copy. Be warned tho some of my systems have been awful and some as Josh has pointed out more than once have no logic ☺
Well done James B…won easily….Cheers mate. Thanks.
Cheers James. Took 9s this morning after the withdrawals, so paid out in full. Top man.
Paul
Well done James you were spot on!
There is a lot of money backing up on Betfair for Normal Equilibrium in the 2.10. He has a great draw and loves the conditions, front runs and is well handicapped using Patternform.
I am in RED BARON can be good e/w
I am going for a real longshot in the 5.50 at Tipperary on Mardar at 25/1.Nothing to go on except trainer John Walsh is in form,does well at Tipperary with hurdlers(albeit small sample).When John Walsh and Brian O’ Connell team up they have respectable 14% strike rate in hurdles for a massive 83pts profit,so they do have some big priced winners,might fall out at the back of the screen too though
No great price Gerry but tisamystery 6.55 tipp, is a system one of mine..
Great shout, Gerry. Went win only, unfortunately…still thought I was collecting.
Paul
got mardar ew Gerry. Mine nowhere. at 20s cheers mate.
sorry…tisamystery is 11/4 bet 365…….Mardar is into 20s.
I have struggled to find anything at decent odds to play at today, which given the amount of races to have a go at is unusual. So, am keeping it simple with Gosden’s shorties at York, Journey 2.40 and Exist 4.15. The double pays 9.3/1 at current odds
Yes that is about my assessment as well.
+midterm?
Treble at 24/1
Hot Race – following on from yesterday : 26/4 at Bath – this is a very hot race working out, run over a mile with fifteen runners. There have been seven runners come out of that race with four winners and two places (and they were behind one of the winners so could not win anyway). The horse that finished LAST has won at Chepstow. The third, tenth and eleventh have also won since.
The 5.40 today is a seven furlong handicap (which I would prefer was over a mile but isn’t)! It is also for apprentices which not ideal either. Three horses from the Bath race are running in it.
Knight Of The Air, (6/1), Marcano(10/1) and Duke Of North(20/1). KOTA and M were close together in second and fourth but there were a few lengths back to DON. The first four in fact pulled a way clear of the rest and there is the possibility of a R/F as well. The Bath race is well worth putting in our trackers I feel.
This is great stuff Richard. The reason i was keen on Dovil’s Duel yesterday was the way he won at Windsor last season on soft over 10F and he confirmed he was in form in the Bath race on 26th Apr that you mention, i didnt realise its turned out to be such a ‘hot’ race, but which one to back today? maybe just do them all ?
ah, i see Marcano now 5/2 from 9/1 ! small deduction but even so
I backed them all at 6/1 10/1 and 20/1 ew plus forecasts and tricasts with B365 taken their prices. Gonna be costly if it doesn’t work out but Dovils has paid for the bets I suppose.
been waiting for lucinda russell to come out of a real dip – had a winner yesterday so had a small nibble on urban kode and tantamount at perth, both too well handicapped to ignore if yard has turned a corner.
Good Shout ian. I was in to late to bet it. Grr!
Thanks Tony, nice when one of them drops in!
Hey guys I just noticed the ‘To be placed’ tab on bf exchange, and it was offering 6.6 on desert law so I put 1 point on that, am I right in thinking this was a better deal than the half point on e/w route? (Places on e/w are 5.0)
I also placed 1/2 point to Win so I’m just concerned about the difference between e/w and to be placed
If you think of 1/2 point each way being 1/2 point win and 1/2 point place…Josh is basically recommending a total of 1 point win and 1/2 point place. No real harm done, but you’ve done it the other way round. Always beware the number of places on Betfair. Good luck,
Paul
nb 6.6 = 5.6/1, so only a marginal improvement on 25/1 after commission (although I often put the bigger prices on the exchange myself to try to keep my few BOG accounts open)
Apart from duke of Firenze which u am sticking with, I like papa luigi around 5/1? Heard some good vibes about it. 5.05 Salisbury.
Heard about papa aswell it was 9/1 yesterday.Got beat by the fav by 3l in it’s maiden race connections are expecting to reverse that form at the very least.
N1 again Martin.. had a saver on him cheers mate!
Thanks Martin “DOF” Easy winner to start off today 🙂
The form of the Sandown Trial that Midterm won has had three runners come out since. The third and fifth were beaten 20 lengths at Chester and the sixth was beaten in a handicap. Both Midterm’s runs were on good to soft and therefore fast ground is an unknown. However, since 2011, progeny of Galileo running on G/F or Firm and priced 8/1 or less have a strike of 26% albeit with a hefty level stake loss.A race to savour for me rather than bet in.
5:20 YORK is Jonyo O Neil Matorico
maybe not to bet but watch
Blimey, looks like ive missed a few winners from you guys on these pages. well done
had 1pt e/w on Glory Awaits at 33s which brings me into the black for today. good enough
Mardar came 3rd,a 25/1 winner still eludes me