Members Report: 01/05/16 (COMPLETE)

Us micro system backers had to wait until the last at Hexham and a 12/1 winner to save the day – propelling us into a +7 point profit for the day, for the ‘system portfolio’.

There was also a 12/1>7/1 winner for NTD at Uttoxeter.  That came from a micro angle I shared in a weekly diary post in early March. Some of you were kind/thoughtful enough to share that qualifier in the comments – that angle is 3/4 this year now I think.  Trainer micro systems work, if you get the research right! 🙂 



Sunday will be fairly quiet bar the two TTP qualifiers below.

Sir Michael Stoute improved his record in C1 Listed+races at the Guineas meeting – now 4 winners after today’s 17/2 victor, from not many bets over the last 5 years.  He is clearly selective but means business when they line up. 

Those notes, if you missed them, are below…




..has come to an end for another year. The notes I produced for the meeting did well overall and pointed many users to a few tasty winners, and hopefully some decent profits. Winners included a couple for Jessie Harrington at 50/1>16/1 and 12/1>7/1, plus a couple of double figure priced placed horses. The micro system for Mullins produced a 7/1 winner, his NHF stats pointed to a few winners including 10/3 and 14/1. Henderson’s stats pointed to Cup Final at 20/1. From the comments over the week on this blog I know a few of you backed some/many of those – plus a few others I may have missed no doubt! 

They were exclusive for Donations Club members and my aim with that ‘club’ is to make the monthly donations worth it just for the exclusive info/discounts etc – outwith the value you put on the daily blog posts. This follows from the notes at Aintree which pointed to winners at 11/4, 9/1 and 16/1. 

Those notes, if you want to know what you missed out on, are below 🙂 …


I like thisapproach for big meetings/festivals and so far so good. There will be plenty more like that over the weeks/months ahead, hopefully with similar success. 

Why not join the donations club below? 🙂 


One of the horses to follow from the book below, Profitable, won at 20/1 at Newmarket and I know at least one of you had a go...

A bargain at £2.97…

If you read Thursday’s email you will be aware that the guys over at ‘Picks From The Paddock‘ have released their ’60 Flat Horses To Follow’ for this Flat season. Last year’s runners had a 40% win/place strike rate. 

One of these ran on Thursday – Jordon Sport – who won a shade cosily at 3/1. I don’t know if they will all be profitable to follow blind, but it is useful info. And you also get an email alert service with it. This isn’t a tipster service or a system – more a set of well researched horses who could progress further this year for various, well thought out, reasons. 

Anyway, it is a bargain at £2.97 (with 15% discount) and for every copy you buy, I make £1 which will get reinvested back into the redesign/building of this blog. So, we all win. 🙂

Anyway, have a feel down the side of your sofa for some change and follow the two step process below to get your copy…

  1. Copy this discount code: RTPROFIT15 (very important you do that) 
  2. CLICK HERE>>>


Trainer Track Profiles: The distance stats at Thirsk (the ones for Tim Easterby I discussed in the video I think) delivered on Saturday with a 16/1 winner, 11/1 SP. Lovely. You can still get a guide below…









2.05 Salis: Magic Circle (any odds) UP

3.20 Ham: Frightened Rabbit (any odds) UP



None. I haven’t looked,(and don’t plan to before 11 tomorrow!) rather than me having looked and not liking anything. 




I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…


I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…


Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree and Punchestown. There will be plenty of stuff for the Flat that will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which is out now.  

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)



(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)






Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE




Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. 2.45 HAMILTON Have taken 20/1 with Bet365 for Aramist.
    Won the race last year off 1lb higher mark. Going should be perfect. Has won 3 times in May
    20/1 looked really big for a horse who goes well at this time of year

    1. Cheers John. I am planning to have some quality HRB time next week and hopefully find some decent profile horses,focus on ratings/class droppers to start with.

    2. Cheers anyway 20/s didn’t last long but I backed at 15/s Layed @ 10/s £6 up on that race. £3 up on Resilency 205 Sal race & 525 NewmR Taqdeer £1 up. £10 up before I finished my breakfast looks like Sunday morning good time for a trade or two. I backed Taqdeer for Guineas after his fast time last time 87 laughable opening mark imho he’s PC Pattern Class!

    1. Ha. Well yep that is probably true if you attempted to back everything they they threw up. Think one user said he had 16 bets. I backed the Easterby winner,system bets,plus the two angles of interest horses. Each to their own,depends how much of a ride you want I suppose haha.I should add that I didn’t bother looking at Donny card as I just didn’t have the time, not sure if I missed anything,but that’s the way it goes.

  2. Yeh, good start for book & tracker worked fine, thanks, me got Aramist on a tracker somewhere too….

    1. Aramist best cdg stats but Dark Ruler better cdg figs both jockey stats poor & there’s no 20/s 5.50am

      1. Thanks Andy – I didn’t make a note of those RSA entries, despite you telling me repeatedly to a few weeks back! Such a logical approach and given my ‘3m+ chase preference’ – I really should take note! I will spend some time next week entering them all into the tracker! Cheers.

        1. Cheers, there probably wont be much for them now till November but I know from previous years they’ll be winning races for the next two years or or more, an old Nick Mordin system.

  3. There’s a problem with attempting to buy the 60 to follow book, when you get to the payment page it says ‘This recipient is currently unable to receive money.’

    1. Thanks Chris, I have sent them an email. Clearly they may be having some paypal issues there end! Maybe too many sales in one hit! 🙂 Hopefully that will be resolved soon.

  4. The big lesson i have learned since i started reading this site is value,value,value.Use the ttp as a way in,but dont back blindly,look for supporting evidence especially of the short priced selections,the negative for the swinbank horses is Ben Curtis is 3-70 at the course or 4% sr,his overall sr is 12% so this isn’t his strongest course,musselbrugh and carlisle are the tracks he overperforms at

    1. yeh he’s gone right down here of late was good a couple of years ago, Aramist dual Pontefract winner too, the value has gone unless he drifts out again.

      Trouble with this site, just about everything Josh tips ends up shorter (great for back to lay purposes)

      Want some value? New Caledonia 5.25 Newm W Buick 16% Mark Johnston 2-2-12 race history u can have 25/s BV & W Hills

  5. April has been quite an unforgettable, terrible month for me with so many losers being created by following various micro systems from a particular source who produced several e-books from Amazon
    I spent hours converting the systems to be suitable for Horseracebase and my hopes were very high for a steady, but not spectacular win rate since putting in so much effort
    Some really big priced winners have gone in but so many losers per day, I don’t know if I should stick with them through this bad time or call a “financial halt” to the “back everything” attitude
    Newmarket Guineas meeting and several other racecards per day at the moment have produced between 25 – 40 horses each day to either back them all or just watch and hope nothing has been missed that wins at a good price
    I bought the £2.97 offer from yesterday and was rewarded with the PROFITABLE winner (small pun) and they have 3 races for today so it might be better to concentrate on horses to follow rather than trainers or jockeys to follow at this time of the year. What are your views ?

    1. Norman I think it would be better to concentrate on horses. Trainers and Jockey’s can have very long losing runs. Trying to pick from 25-40
      is of no use. You will not only lose your money you will be demoralised.

      1. Demoralised is the perfect word to say for the point I have reached with these lists and the season is barely a month old

        Like many people I can find some winners using my own methods but you always think when starting a project like this that the light at the end of the tunnel (or season) will be bright and very rewarding, but so far that’s not been the case

        So I shall try the horse list and I already use the very good “Eyecatchers” list on ATR website….the 60 to follow and their 15 extra to follow from Josh’s offer yesterday + both Jon Gibby’s 3yo’s to follow and Kel Mansfield’s list ( selected Guineas winner yesterday) and at the end of the season…..the profits will be enormous, wishful thinking but ever hopeful

        1. Norman make sure there is always a reason to back a horse. Another thing to be careful with is when a horse has won.
          If it is a handicapper then it will be raised in the handicap. Many trainers then start the process of getting the horse back down to its winning mark. Some will let the horse progress further up the handicap if he thinks there is more improvement to come.This is where you can save backing a lot of losers. I would probably stop backing a horse once it had made me a profit. Then just keep an eye on it.
          At the end of the day we are only guessing what a trainer thinks. They are not going to tell us.

  6. I’m sure Alan Swinbank is not worried about Ben Curtis’s stats at Hamilton. If today is the day it wont matter who rides it. I think too much is made of some stats.
    I got 20/1 but would still back it at 10/1 now.

  7. Norman,by coming on this site you are on first step to redemption,backing so many horses will leave you bankrupt,distressed and worst case scenarion health problems,you will get far better insight by reading the blog,following josh and the informative views of the contributers,most important thing is find your own niche,get ahead and you will never need any tipsters

  8. Unraced horses don’t normally interest me as lost plenty on so called good things from the Lambourn stables when living in the area in my younger years, but Kesselring from the horse to follow seems good value at 6’s (Bet365) for a Hannon horse, and now shorter elsewhere. Am I going mad or there a couple of horses referenced in the alert email for today that are not in the 60 TF (Sharja Queen & Lumiere)? Unless they are in the bonus ones.

    1. No your not going mad, I got them as well, I thought the same must be from the bonus ones.

    2. Got those too and looked at the form and my notes read for Lumiere won very well on debut, clocking speed of 38.10 mph last time out but that was over average for this distance is 37.10 mph so is clearly an above average horse, Sharja Quuen was beaten by Lumiere to the tune of 6 lengths……hope that helps..apologies for late snippet but been out and only just logged on….others in the race to note are Minding = 37.70 mph over 8f my average over this distance is 36.74 mph so clearly above average….I get Midweek running 39.71 mph over 8f in France but have no course standard to compare it with other courses (important for course comparison adjustments) but is obviously above average…Ballydoyle has clocked 39.37 mph in run over 8f and beat Minding over 7f at the Curragh 22nd August last year…clearly a competative race I will be backing Ballydoyle and Midweek at the current prices and hope to get the place money back…ground and draw will be important as well as price

  9. Aramist niggled at from the start. Swinbanks other runner Dark Ruler gets beat 1/2L. As I said before, we are only guessing what trainers do.

  10. Josh,was just reading the end of the stats on Irish flat and noticed the w mcleary/billy lee stats,On a quiet day i turned to sligo and there they were with excellant record,had winner with downforce,i didnt back their first winner,backed their one in 2.55 and 3.30,downforce was a nice winner at 10/1,could be a combo to follow during summer where they combine well

  11. Nice day on hamilton for me 3 bets 3 wins,not sure but some Gary Moore horses runing tomorrow
    his horses can be overpriced still

  12. Josh – the maiden chaser angle is interesting, particualrly as one of the first runners I crossed out for the National was the winner, having not won over fences previously; novice or otherwise. I wondered did you test whether the class of race makes a difference to the numbers?

    1. Hi Mark – good point – I will dive back into it but I suspect that I did look – from memory all the stats were fairly uniform and I cant think there was a difference otherwise I would have highlighted it as I can’t think I didn’t look at class when flicking through stats etc. I will go and check at some point. I don’t think you were alone in crossing him off for that reason!!…

      I have just had a brief look again and it is a murky picture…(2011-)
      If you just stick to handicap chases.. C1 0 chase wins previously… 10/103,30p +24 SP … when breaking those down..those in C1 Listed Handicaps are 8/55, 19 places +26.5. AE 1.65… In G3 handicaps.. 2/43, 11 places – AE 0.63.
      There is no material difference when comparing all of the classes 1-5 – the SR for C1 is lower but they perform above market expectations.
      Non handicaps – G1s are.. 2/56, 8 places.
      So, bits and pieces to gone on there – all that info is a useful guide – the message is that is shouldn’t be THE reason to be put off a chaser, certainly in handicaps of all classes.

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