Members Report: 27/03/16 (COMPLETE)

 

Update: ah, well the cheekpieces did do the trick for TDS and he has just outclassed them there. At least the ‘value eyes’ are still working, Krackatoa backed in to 3/1, finishing a distance second. Onto the Irish National… (that post is now up, with tips)

 

A decent day at the office on Saturday with No Duffer ensuring a decent return for ‘official tips’. If getting 10/1 I think around a +9 point profit on the day, that is what I will put it down as. He halved in price, as did Hollow Blue Sky – sadly he could never get involved. Achimota – well maybe the stable is cold or more likely I have miss-read him. Hopefully some of you had a ‘saver’ on the winner, who was 7s>4/1. Basford Ben rolled back the years at his favourite track and was really game – hopefully he added to the pot for some of you also. 

Anyway, that day is now done. Onto today…

TIPS 

5.10 Plumpton

Krackatoa King – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) 11/2 (coral)* 2nd

*prices as of 09.03

There has been quite a bit of rain here and as such there is a precautionary inspection at 10am – hopefully it passes. In any case, most of these in here will be pleased that the ground has eased.

This horse entered my radar when chasing home Golden Chieftan at Wincanton a couple of starts ago. He tried to take a few fences with him that day and did well to get so close. He was/is still be learning. This is only his 4th chase start. I left him at Wawrick because I wanted to see him jump better, which he did. He stayed on well there, so the trip shouldn’t be a problem. A stiff finish, up this hill, could be just what he wants. He has form at the track and the trainer is in decent enough form. I also like the fact that Hutch has been called for. His run last time was after 50 days off or so (intensive schooling maybe) so it is possible he could come on for that run. Those two races have been decent yardsticks and he would have run GC close at Wincanton but for errors – and we now know that would have been decent form, given the fact GC should have won two decent races since, but for last fence falls.

So, we have a horse who is in form, who is getting his act together over fences,who stays,who will relish the ground,looks to have the class for this and comes from a trainer whose horses are running well. I cannot make that same statement about any other horse in this race. 

PACE – there could be a ‘burn up’ here – relatively speaking. There are quite a few who like to get on with it. KK usually likes to track the pace, which could be the perfect spot. If he jumps well again here, I don’t think he will be too far away, and 5/1 was fair enough. 

Of the rest – well they have plenty to prove but you could make some sort of case for all of them. Blameitalonmyroots is interesting and was unlucky the last day. BUT, if she hadn’t have been brought down there (effectively), I don’t think she would be racing here today – it strikes me as an afterthought. In any case, a race like this is tough for a 6yo (I should look at some data mind, to see how they do over these trips as that could be a load of nonsense!) – The trip is an unknown but she could improve for it. I was happy to leave her at the odds. CoolKing has a major class question – 0/9,2 places in C3 in his career – but he is evidently in good nick. This is no C5 hurdle race though. Saroque and TDS seem to have lost their way a bit this season. Venetia’s are starting to go a bit cold also and this one has had a few tough races this year. TDS – well his trainer couldn’t be in better form but he needs the change of headgear to work. The visor didn’t so I don’t hold out too much hope. He also has a slight stamina question, along with his current frame of mind. Don’t Do Monday’s now has questions to answer after a break, and jumped really badly the last day. His trainer is also a bit cold, but he is unexposed enough. Finish The Story has been poor really and I thought he has looked like a stayer – but, there now appear to be stamina questions, esp in this ground. He has stopped too quickly recently for my liking. All his winning form is on Flat tracks, so maybe that is the key to him. Itoldyou has won this race before but looks woefully out of form. He has bounced back before, and gets a change of headgear, but I am struggling to be overly confident about this 10yos chance – he is a good price though I suppose. Golanova – a big big step up in trip and I at least like to see some staying form over 3m or so. His wins have been over 2m5f and I am guessing as to whether he will stay. He is trying it for the first time but I wouldn’t be confident he would see this out. Gary Moore has also gone  bit cold in the last couple of weeks. 

So, on bits of pieces of form, and the fact some of these are trying the trip for the first time, you could make some sort of case for plenty – and I suppose no winner would be a total shock for one reason or another. But, we have one who I am sure looks likely to run his race and there is plenty more to come from him over fences. Let’s see if he can show it today. 5s was fair. 

That will be all for tips today. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jumps Handicappers

3.00 Sedge – Gold Chain (12/1<) UP 12/1

5.10 Plum – Dont Do Mondays (14/1<) NR

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Nothing catches the eye. 

***

That is all for today. 

***

***

ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now as a thank you… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

25 Comments

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  • well done with no duffer josh

    billy 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Billy, a nice end to the month with a few days to go.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi josh, do you think with the success you’re having it’s having a real affect on prices. Not so long ago prices would hold for a while but now it appears they last two mins.

    mike 1 year ago Reply


    • Don’t think so,yet. Odds on horses in the week didn’t move too much for quite some time. Today,if Hollow had of won he would have been declared at 16s, that price held for quite some time across a few bookies. 20s went quickly but was then available in morning with WH also. No Duffer…10s around for a good hour after posting I think,and 9s/8s was around for most of morning. It is something I try and keep and eye on. There are things I can obviously do if needed . Donations Club members could be emailed tips an hour or so before posting for example.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • When geegeez sotd had a fantastic run last summer, the price was going down within a couple of minutes now sotd is having a dip, its relatively easy to get the price, but i should add sotd is usually still beating the sp, which in the long run you beat the house to use a casino phrase, if you want you can analyse oddschecker, click on the horse and see the time when the price changes, personally i am convinced bookies monitor tipsters, just think josh there is a file on you at betfred house, which fred is reading right now as he strokes his pussyblomfeld style

    phil 1 year ago Reply


    • Haha, what an image!! Mr Betfred decided a while ago he didn’t want my business!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • For your interest, 3.35 S Houndscourt 3 from 5 at Sedgefield.
    5.10 P Coolking 67% for C Gordon………………watchout …. King Cool 2.15 P, good coincidental bet.
    3.05 F Asthuria 80% for owner G Creighton
    outsider EW 4.35 P Our Three Sons 16/1 ..5 from 12 at Plumpton.

    Josh my fun bet for Sunday, of to the golf course am back to watch them win in the pm. I await your Blog when I get back.

    Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


  • today long OAK VINTAGE 4:10 SEDGEFIELD
    currently @18-@20

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    Interesting take on Saroque. Personally I thought he has been running solid races in defeat and getting dropped for them and now 4lb lower than his run in the Welsh National. Do take your point on the hard season. Dickie’s first ride for Venetia since 2006 is interesting though not sure with Coleman being on the fav.

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep,the jockey bookings are strange. I am yet to be convinced he truly stays, which in my mind makes ratings etc irrelevant …that was a poor run at Exeter really,in ground he should have relished,and it turned out not to be the strongest race. A plodding on,beaten a distance,2nd A big weight now also in what will be a test. Am yet to be convinced. Maybe he will prove me wrong.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Good call yesterday Josh, well done.

    Richard Sutton 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers Richard.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh. Just a small thing, but shouldn’t there be a 5% R4 on No Duffer? I

    Neil 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Neil, yep that is correct, technically, if getting 10/1 , it was 9.845 points on race, 8.845 points on day. I rounded up for purpose of post,but rest assured my results spreadsheet has those figures above in! 🙂

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks for No Duffer, proving yet again that you are no duffer yourself..

    What do you think about Jarob’s chances in the Irish National?

    Tony Brannan 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Tony, cheers. will be looking at that race soon,and will let you know!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Meant to say that I backed No Duffer with 365 so got a free bet for same stake in the next race…… on Spring Loaded.

        Nice one!

        Tony Brannan 1 year ago Reply


  • OK. Had a tickle on it at 33/1 NRNB.

    Tony Brannan 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Tony, against my ‘winning profile’ he has a near perfect fit – only downfall, unless I am mistaken, is that he has yet to RUN at listed level or above – those types are 0/30,2 places in this race last 19 renewals. 33s allows you to overlook many a stats floor mind! Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks for No Duffer yesterday Josh,backed it in the morning at my local Corals shop got the full payout with no deductions.

    Rodney 1 year ago Reply


  • Krackatoa King his jumping still needs to improve a lot,made to many mistakes,but there is a race in him somewhere,even with his dodgy jumping.BoB

    BoB 1 year ago Reply


    • yep, a slight backward step – more big and bold than crunching errors,and that didn’t cost him – TDS entitled to do that at his best, he did look out of sorts last couple of runs but headgear clearly worked, which was annoying! Dilemma as always, and whether 7s was worthy to take a punt – albeit was always backing KK. Never mind.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • blimey, just realised Pipe had another back-to-form winner at a long price – Lady of Longstone 20/1

    his horses just flick the switch when they feel like it seems! anyone found a way of seeing them coming?

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


    • Dont think the Pipes know in truth, esp when unbacked. They are clearly healthy at the moment – he changed the headgear on that one which was the ‘way in’ as well as getting an uncontested lead, liking the better ground (all came together so easily after the race!! – which I didn’t look at beforehand)

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • I had win today on Acapella Bourgeois (Fair
    C1 race

    coach Ms Sandra Hughes she is pretty great five races ago that horse has run in maiden previous race C1 won by even he did big mjstke at last stage iSandra will some horses in maiden races at very nice price
    worth to track

    Pab 1 year ago Reply


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