Update: ah, well the cheekpieces did do the trick for TDS and he has just outclassed them there. At least the ‘value eyes’ are still working, Krackatoa backed in to 3/1, finishing a distance second. Onto the Irish National… (that post is now up, with tips)
A decent day at the office on Saturday with No Duffer ensuring a decent return for ‘official tips’. If getting 10/1 I think around a +9 point profit on the day, that is what I will put it down as. He halved in price, as did Hollow Blue Sky – sadly he could never get involved. Achimota – well maybe the stable is cold or more likely I have miss-read him. Hopefully some of you had a ‘saver’ on the winner, who was 7s>4/1. Basford Ben rolled back the years at his favourite track and was really game – hopefully he added to the pot for some of you also.
Anyway, that day is now done. Onto today…
Krackatoa King – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) 11/2 (coral)* 2nd
*prices as of 09.03
There has been quite a bit of rain here and as such there is a precautionary inspection at 10am – hopefully it passes. In any case, most of these in here will be pleased that the ground has eased.
This horse entered my radar when chasing home Golden Chieftan at Wincanton a couple of starts ago. He tried to take a few fences with him that day and did well to get so close. He was/is still be learning. This is only his 4th chase start. I left him at Wawrick because I wanted to see him jump better, which he did. He stayed on well there, so the trip shouldn’t be a problem. A stiff finish, up this hill, could be just what he wants. He has form at the track and the trainer is in decent enough form. I also like the fact that Hutch has been called for. His run last time was after 50 days off or so (intensive schooling maybe) so it is possible he could come on for that run. Those two races have been decent yardsticks and he would have run GC close at Wincanton but for errors – and we now know that would have been decent form, given the fact GC should have won two decent races since, but for last fence falls.
So, we have a horse who is in form, who is getting his act together over fences,who stays,who will relish the ground,looks to have the class for this and comes from a trainer whose horses are running well. I cannot make that same statement about any other horse in this race.
PACE – there could be a ‘burn up’ here – relatively speaking. There are quite a few who like to get on with it. KK usually likes to track the pace, which could be the perfect spot. If he jumps well again here, I don’t think he will be too far away, and 5/1 was fair enough.
Of the rest – well they have plenty to prove but you could make some sort of case for all of them. Blameitalonmyroots is interesting and was unlucky the last day. BUT, if she hadn’t have been brought down there (effectively), I don’t think she would be racing here today – it strikes me as an afterthought. In any case, a race like this is tough for a 6yo (I should look at some data mind, to see how they do over these trips as that could be a load of nonsense!) – The trip is an unknown but she could improve for it. I was happy to leave her at the odds. CoolKing has a major class question – 0/9,2 places in C3 in his career – but he is evidently in good nick. This is no C5 hurdle race though. Saroque and TDS seem to have lost their way a bit this season. Venetia’s are starting to go a bit cold also and this one has had a few tough races this year. TDS – well his trainer couldn’t be in better form but he needs the change of headgear to work. The visor didn’t so I don’t hold out too much hope. He also has a slight stamina question, along with his current frame of mind. Don’t Do Monday’s now has questions to answer after a break, and jumped really badly the last day. His trainer is also a bit cold, but he is unexposed enough. Finish The Story has been poor really and I thought he has looked like a stayer – but, there now appear to be stamina questions, esp in this ground. He has stopped too quickly recently for my liking. All his winning form is on Flat tracks, so maybe that is the key to him. Itoldyou has won this race before but looks woefully out of form. He has bounced back before, and gets a change of headgear, but I am struggling to be overly confident about this 10yos chance – he is a good price though I suppose. Golanova – a big big step up in trip and I at least like to see some staying form over 3m or so. His wins have been over 2m5f and I am guessing as to whether he will stay. He is trying it for the first time but I wouldn’t be confident he would see this out. Gary Moore has also gone bit cold in the last couple of weeks.
So, on bits of pieces of form, and the fact some of these are trying the trip for the first time, you could make some sort of case for plenty – and I suppose no winner would be a total shock for one reason or another. But, we have one who I am sure looks likely to run his race and there is plenty more to come from him over fences. Let’s see if he can show it today. 5s was fair.
That will be all for tips today.
3.00 Sedge – Gold Chain (12/1<) UP 12/1
5.10 Plum – Dont Do Mondays (14/1<) NR
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing catches the eye.
That is all for today.
ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…
Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now as a thank you… 🙂