Irish Grand National Stats/Trends Profile

IRISH GRAND NATIONAL

19 renewals

463 runners, 74 placed horses

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing too significant
  • Fell: 0/19, 4 places
  • PU: 0/26,3 places

Horse Age

  • Nothing too significant, winners aged 6-11
  • 12+ : 0/13,3 places
  • 13/19 Aged 6-8: 13/233,42 places…68% winners…50% runners…57% places

Days Since Run

  • Ran 1-90 days ago
  • 91+ : 0/25,1 place

Horse Weight

  • 19/19, carried 11-4 or below
  • 11-5+ : 0/33, 4 places

Horse Official Rating

  • 16/19 OR 121-136
    • 16/277,50 places… 84% winners…60% runners…68% places
    • No rating: 1/20, 4places
    • OR 105-120: 1/51, 8 places
    • OR 137-142: 1/77, 11 places
    • OR 143+ : 0/38, 1 place

Season Runs

  • Nothing significant

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • 5f+ (The Grand National) : 0/26, 2 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • 18/19 Had won over at least 2m6f in career
    • Had Not: 1/98, 14 places

Position In Market

  • Nothing significant

Odds

  • Nothing significant.

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 1/49, 5 places
  • IRE: 16/362, 6 2 places
  • USA: 0/8, 0 places
  • FR: 2/43, 7 places

Headgear

  • Cheekpieces: 3/37, 8 places
  • Blinkers: 0/42, 3 places
  • Hood: 0/2, 0 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)       

  • 11-5+ : 0/38, 4 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 3 (inc joints) in weights: 0/64, 9 places
  • 12/19 were 11th or lower in weights, 6 winners were bottom weight.

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 0 runs: 0/25, 1 place
  • 15/19 had 1 or 2 runs in last 90 days.
  • 5+ : 0/13, 3 places

H – Run (career)

  • 0-10 runs: 1/70, 12 places
  • 11-23 runs: 16/228, 41 places
  • 24-29 runs: 2/91, 9 places
  • 30+ runs: 0/74, 12 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-1 handicap runs: 0/65, 13 places
  • 2-10 handicap runs: 17/19…17/256, 42 places
  • 11-20 handicap runs: 2/103, 11 places
  • 21+ : 0/39, 8 places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 0-2 chase runs: 0/14, 3 places
  • 14+ chase runs: 0/136, 16 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 9+ handicap chase runs: 0/94, 15 places

H- Run (track)

  • 8+ : 0/12, 1 place

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 0: 7/180

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0: 0/19, 2 places
  • 9+ : 0/26, 4 places

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 5 or more chase wins: 0/46, 6 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 0 handicap chase wins: 8/212, 34 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 13/19: 1st or 2nd on at least one of previous 3 runs.
  • 19/19: Top 6 at least once in last 3 starts
    • Did not: 0/23, 1 place

Highest Class Run

  • 19/19 Had run at Listed Level or above
    • Had Not: 0/30, 2 places

H-Win Course Direction: (RH): 0 wins: 0/53, 8 places

H-Places (NH Race type) (‘places’ includes wins)

  • 0: 0/12, 0 places
  • 7+ : 0/131, 17 places

Jockey Claims

  • 7lb: 0/23, 5 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • C3 LTO: 0/58, 9 places (possibly just random given those running below this have won)

 (LR) No. of Runners

  • 6 or fewer: 0/62, 8 places

 (LR) Track

  • Chelt: 7/100, 20 places
  • Navan: 3/47, 8 places
  • Leop: 2/55, 6 places
  • Fairyhouse: 1/38, 9 places
  • Gowran: 1/26,3 places
  • Newc: 1/4, 1 place
  • Naas: 1/38, 10 places
  • Cork: 1/16, 4 places
  • Curragh: 1/3, 1 place
  • Uttox: 1/14, 3 places
  • Limerick: 0/17, 3 places
  • Wex: 0/7, 0 places
  • Thurles: 0/8, 1 place
  • Punch: 0/12, 2 places
  • Aintree: 0/19, 0 places
  • Down Royal: 0/13, 0 places
  • DownP: 0/7, 0 places
  • Sand: 0/5, 0 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • Jonjo O’Neill: 2/7, 4 places (only trainer with more than one win)
  • Noel Meade: 1/30, 3 places
  • A J Martin: 1/24, 3 places
  • A L T Moore: 1/27,7 places
  • Others selected with one win: Brassil/Buckler/T Walsh/M Morris/Sandra Hughes
  • W Burke: 0/6, 0 places
  • G Elliot: 0/5, 1 place
  • M Hourigan: 0/16, 6 places
  • T J Taffe: 0/8, 0 places
  • W Mullins: 0/27, 2 places
  • E J OGrady: 0/10, 2 places
  • Jessie Harrington: 0/6, 0 places
  • Paul Nolan: 0/14, 0 places
  • C Roche: 0/5, 0 places
  • C F Swann: 0/12, 0 places
  • Oliver McKiernan: 0/6, 2 places
  • E Bolger: 0/4, 1 place
  • J T R Dreaper: 0/9, 2 places
  • Venetia Williams: 0/5, 0 places

***

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • Ran in last 90 days
  • NOT Top 3 in weights
  • 11-4 or below
  • OR 142 or below
  • 29 or fewer career runs
  • 2-20 handicap runs (all handicaps)
  • 3-13 Chase RUNS
  • 8 or fewer handicap chase runs
  • 1-8 career wins
  • 1-4 chase wins
  • Run at Listed Level or above (c1)
  • 1-6 places in chases only (includes wins)
  • Ran in race with 7 or more runners LTO
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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. any chance you would post the qualifiers? Great work doing the stats but identifying the runners that meet them would be a big help

    thanks

    1. yep, I always do with a big race like that. Will be posted up on Monday I suspect, maybe Sunday evening. Will put up shortlist against the profile – never know at this stage if that will leave a shortlist of 5 or 20!

  2. I know you don’t let yourself get hung up on stats, Josh, but it’s almost funny how many of those profile pointers Many Clouds doesn’t qualify for.
    Paul

      1. haha – The wrong National Paul!
        Albeit, he was a stats buster for that race last year – it could well be getting classier given compression to handicap – where, rating/weight isn’t so much of a factor. Yet to dive into it with my ‘new’ checklist but will see what it throws up! I think 8/1 is probably fair enough – he is coming into this in better form than last year, been target all year- he could well do a Red Rum, see no reason why he wont be far away. Given he won it last year there isn’t much point in doing a stats analysis on him.

      1. sorry, realised that was confusing! A separate post is up for that race now.Yes these stats/trends are for the Irish National

  3. With the English GN prize growing more and more of the top trainers are targeting it because they know a winner could realistically win them the trainers title based on prize money, unless someone has a stellar season, like PFN last year, you get to the GN knowing any one of 5-6 trainers could win the trainers title with a winner of the GN so better horses are saved for it and aimed at it.

  4. About ground have some news about
    Andrew Tulloch it seems highly unlikely that will materialise. He is aiming to produce ground that is on the “easy side of good.” In any case, the forecast is for a lot of rain in the next week, so it could be even softer.

  5. just spent an interesting 2 hours looking at the form, main viewpoint is that this is a very substandard renewal, proximity to Cheltenham due to early Easter and proximity to Aintree most likely reason. Hard to see anything but one of the top 8 in the weights winning which would buck the main trends, a few at the very bottom have some close collateral form…if I had a bet now would be on Bonny Kate…..but will wait for the morning to make a final call..

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