‘Weekly Diary’: 7th-20th March (complete)

 

This ‘Weekly Diary’ covers the last two weeks and an update on 2016 to date,as usual…

RESULTS 

TIPS 

Big Race Previews: 25 bets / 2 wins / 4 w|p / +10 points

Other: 2 bets / 0 wins / 0 places / -3 points 

Total: 27 bets / 2 wins / 4 w|p / +7 points 

March Running Total: 31 bets / 2 wins / 4 w|p / +2.5 points

2016 Running Total: 95 bets / 19 wins / 31 w|p / +116.375 points 

**

MICRO SYSTEMS 

March Trainers: 2/9 = +3.4 points 

Jumps Handicappers: 1/12 = -11.8 points 

Other: 1/6 = +7 points 

Total: 4/27 = -1.4 points 

March Running Total: 7/49 = -2.9 points 

2016 Running Total: 29/189 = -11.9 points 

***

Not too much to say when reflecting on those results. I am obviously delighted with the level of profit for the tips to date, which is what it is all about. I will keep doing my best and aim to add to that pot. It has been a decent jumps season to date and hopefully the final few weeks will be kind to us. We then have the fun of 20+ runner sprint handicaps to look forward to and the tasty 20/1+ EW bets that come with those. 

The micro systems have had a quiet start to the year but are only a handful of winners away from bouncing back into profit. They will have highs and lows, much like my tipping, but there will be the odd period where lots of profits are made – and as yet we haven’t had one of those. 

***

CHELTENHAM: SOME REFLECTIONS 

Plenty of positives and a few learning points from Cheltenham 2016. A slight feeling of what could have been – probably one more winner away from being in a ‘content,happy place’ with my effort. But, we made 8.5 points on the week which is not to be sniffed at and I am sure that is better than some others in the online world performed – and of course it will be worse than many others also. 

As you may be aware, my drive is a desire to ‘solve the puzzle’ – to test myself and to try and be right. Cheltenham is the greatest puzzle, especially when it comes to the handicaps, and it is a challenge I relish. I did ok, but there were a couple more puzzles that were very nearly solved...

As touched on previously there were three winners that I felt genuinely got away and that could have been tipped. 1. David Pipes handicap chase winner, 16/1. He was on the ‘profile shortlist’, was a qualifier for my David Pipe micro angle, and ran in a race where the Pipe’s had a decent enough record. In reality that should have been enough but I got too clever and put too much thought into the horse. The second was the winner of The Pertemps at 20/1 – he was in the profile shortlist of 5, but I went for two others. Ouch. What should have made him a tip? Well, ignoring the horse, he was ridden by Davy Russell. End of story really, that should have been enough! (oh, and he did finish in-front of one of my tips LTO also- Doh!) And finally – Ibis Du Rheu – 20/1>14/1 – what a numpty – Nicholls had three qualifiers for his micro angle in this, and I ‘tipped’ up the other two. I should have put 1/2 point on each, and it would have been a +17.5 point week. 

LEARNING POINTS

Well from those three winners alone there are a few things to improve on. Don’t second guess the Pipe’s, especially in races where they have a good record/system selection! And that is a general point – if you have a shortlist and on that list includes a horse/horses from trainers with a decent race record, clearly mark them up. Don’t over-think the horse – that is another point – trying to read the form of the horses is arguably less important with my approach – the race profile/stats and trainer record should be the first major considerations (relevant for Ibis Du Rheu as well) – and jockey. That point gets onto Davy Russell and he had another brilliant festival.(the odd ‘questionable ride where he may have waited too long,and I would have liked to see him get after Don Poli sooner,but maybe that was as quick as he would go) I will do more research on jockeys next year – but if he is booked on one that is prominent on my shortlist,it will be foolish to leave it un-backed/tipped I think. Gordon Elliot is clearly a man to be feared from now on and forever more – always assume his are well handicapped,even if they do not appear to be! 🙂 (esp when they are ‘progressing’) 

But, having said that, the fact that those winners were within touching distance should be seen as a positive. The race stats/profiles worked in general, with the majority of winners being on ‘the shortlist’ – the profiles were effective at knocking out at least half the field in most cases. The final winner of the meeting – Solar Impulse 33/1 – was on the ‘shortlist’ of 12 for the race – he fell down on a few other stats I used to narrow it down further – but, Nicholls had a great record in the race,his chasers had been running ok,he was clearly in form and he stuck blinkers on for the first time. That thinking alone could have led to him being a bet,esp in the context of his price. The trainer micro angles worked quite well, especially for Pipe and Nicholls this year. So, that is something else to look forward to next year. 

It was another year where many favs/second favs and short priced horses romped to victory. That is worth reflecting on and as I have said before I need to work on my approach to the top end of the market. There were a few worthy ‘short priced’ horses/favs that could have been more actively considered – especially those wearing green and hold. Cause of Causes and On The Fringe (were 6/1 and 11/4 well backed) would be near the top of that list. However, there will be Festivals where a lot of winners return at over 12/1, and I can’t think the top of the market will always dominate – but who knows. 

Dan Skelton gave an informative post race interview following his first Festival winner. He rammed home the point about how dominant Cheltenham now is in the thinking of trainers and connections. Maybe I underestimated that a tad, but it is clear that for the likes of team Skelton and many others, Cheltenham is forefront of the mind before the season starts. For him – clearly days rest is not a problem. His winner demonstrated that he can get them ready and that should never be an off-putting factor moving forward. I don’t mean in terms of fitness (we know he can get them fit at home)- but that winner showed he could ensure they turn up ready to run their best, to not be keen, fresh and pull etc. Maybe that ‘one run before Christmas, and saved for The Festival’, will become the norm for him. A lot of his ran really well. One to watch next year. 

So, it isn’t far fetched to suggest that without too much more work, and a bit more in-depth thought about the trainer/micro systems/jockey we could have had +50-90 points more to add to the pot. That’s frustrating,but exciting for the future. I am confident my approach,(which was new/more in depth than before,stats wise) especially when shortlisting, works fairly well. At the same time, I have to accept that I will get it wrong more than I get it right – that is the nature of the odds I play at and how competitive the racing is. There is an argument, especially if I can get to a ‘confident’ shortlist of 4,for backing the lot as well. But, one or two more winners would have been brilliant. Something to build on. 

***

EYE-CATCHERS 

I have focused on the 3m+ chases ran at the Festival for this section…

Kruzhlinin – he ran an eye catching race in the opening 3m+ handicap chase. He was going well for a long way, up with the pace, before trying to take the 4th from home with him. That ended any chance and was given time to recover. He came here having had 66 days off and the Hobbs’ horse were a bit in and out during the week. It looks like he may need some cut, so the ground may not have been ideal (don’t think there was any soft in it from the start) – He also looks best in small fields – handicaps – he is 7/13,10 places with 11 runners or fewer, 0/7,1 place 12+. He ran as if an in form horse and this mark still looks within range. Maybe Hobbs will send him to Aintree to the 3m handicap chase he has won a few times from memory in recent years. (haven’t checked conditions and whether he would get in) One to keep onside. 

Double Ross– he has been in the tracker for some time. He ran very well for a long way here, but he is no 3m+ horse, esp at this track and in a big field like this. All winning form is at 2m5f or below, and he is now 0/12,2 places when running beyond this. A fast run 2m5f may be right up his street. He is clearly in form. I am not sure if he is well handicapped but he has some class, and I am sure NTD may find something for him in the spring. Clearly he isn’t getting any younger. 

Morning Assembly – many people’s fancy for this race he ran really well – and would have been a good third were it not for failing to see out the last 1f up this hill, to my eye at least. I didn’t know if he was well handicapped or not here, but this run suggests that he can win a handicap from this mark. He has some class. It was a good run. 3m may be as far as he wants to go. Interestingly he is 4/6,5 places at Punchestown and I assume there is a 3m handicap chase or something that he can go for there. The rest of the field also happened to bump into two classy, very well handicapped horses here. 

Southfield Royale – was tipped by me and ran well enough in this. He was ridden very wide all the way round and that would not have helped come the end. He must have lost an awful lot of ground. He is also only a 6yo but he jumps well (esp LH) and clearly has some engine, and is highly regarded. I would be tempted to save him for next year if I was lucky enough to own him as that was a hard race, and one more this season may not help him long term. But, it will be interesting to see where he turns up. It is hard to know whether he got the trip, because of how far he went wide. He will be a smart 3m+ handicap chaser. 

Vicente – ran a cracker for Nicholls in the same race, travelling well for a long way. He is only a 7yo, 3/7 over fences. Maybe this trip stretched him (seemed to slow markedly after 3rd last,before keeping on) a bit but he kept up to his work all the way to the line. He also came here after quite a break. There is more to come from him around 3m I suspect, and maybe in time he will get further. 

Amigo – ran a fine race in the Kim Muir after a very lengthy break. He pushed the pace hard for most of the way and kicked for home a long way out, and still managed to plug on for 5th. He is 0/9,3 places now over fences in the UK and ran a fine race in last year’s Scottish National. I wonder if that is the target again this year. He ran like an in-form horse and he could be hard to peg back in a ‘normal’ handicap chase – jumped well. Likewise his stablemate, TopWood, who I have failed to get right this year, was going really well before falling a few from home. (still some way to go) but again was running like an inform horse who may not be done with yet this season. 

Silvergrove – ran a cracker for Ben Pauling – most of his did him proud during the week – He was up there with the pace for most of the way also – his jockey deciding to sit off Amigo going over the last few – or he just couldn’t match strides. The winner was a ‘good thing’ in this, very well in, (easy for me to say after,having not backed him!) but he plugged on well and ran like a horse who could win from this mark. Whereas Amigo tired (lack of run may have caught up with him) he kept going, having been up there the whole way. He is a dangerous horse to let loose on the front end and is clearly still going the right way. 

A Good Skin – well him and Silvergrove came a very close 1st and 2nd at Kempton in the race before this, and repeated that form here. Like at Kempton, A Good Skin came from further back here, and this was a good run. There was a good gap back to the rest here, and this race could work out ok. Maybe they will look for something at Perth, where I believe Tom George likes to have winners. He has a decent handicap chase in him somewhere and looks better than a c3 animal.  He has generally run well this season. His running style suggests he needs some pace to aim at. Maybe Aintree for him also. 

Those are the ones that caught my eye, that I know will turn up in chases that I like playing in. If there are any others, in the hurdle races etc, that caught your eye, then do share your thoughts in the comments. 

***

MICRO ANGLE 

The Flat isn’t too far away… 

Well I usually like to put up something for you stats types (of which I am one, if you hadn’t guessed). I am working on a new publication for the flat season: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016. A quick reference guide for relevant trainer/jockey stats. They will look at the last 3 complete seasons and I have gone with the ‘less is more’ approach. Anyway, each track will have one trainer based micro system, and below is the one for Beverley

TRAINER MICRO SYSTEM (Handicaps)

  • Beverley 
  • Mark Johnston
  • Handicaps
  • 1m2f (10f) or further
  • Top 6 LTO
  • Any odds
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E  
ALL 50 22 44 51.42 29 58 102.84 56.08 18.1 15.00 1.88  
2015 16 6 37.5 15 7 43.75 93.75 15.97 -0.31 13.00 1.6  
2014 15 8 53.33 13.17 10 66.67 87.8 13.91 9.57 13.00 2.07  
2013 19 8 42.11 23.25 12 63.16 122.37 26.2 8.84 15.00 1.95  

A solid approach for Johnston’s handicappers at the track. As you can see he has been very consistent over the last 3 seasons. Those that finished 7th or worse last time out are 0/16, 1 place. For now I am happy to leave those alone. The figures above do include one horse who refused to race – clearly that is a rarity. A decent angle to add to your portfolio.

***

Right, that is all from this week’s offering. 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

44 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, I don’t comment too much but just wanted to revisit a point I made a while ago now you increasing your call for ‘donations’. I haven’t donated and don’t intend to donate in the future so if you stop reading now I completely understand. However I just wanted to reiterate my reasoning for this as it may help you to understand why and also to reassure any other readers who don’t donate that they are not the only one. Firstly I should state that I visit your blog and twitter page at least 3 times week because I think you offer interesting and thought provoking posts. I sometimes bet on your tips, although more often than not I don’t as I enjoy betting on my own picks in the main. I wish you all the best in you attempts to win money for yourself betting on horses and on whatever you gain from sales of services and donations.
    My main choice for not donating is as follows. I scour the internet for interesting blogs on all sorts of topics. Blogs to me are written by people who enjoy putting there thoughts on the internet for others to read. The kind of thoughts that they would offer to the friend in face to face chats. I am sure if we were mates down the pub having a chit chat about racing and sinking a few pints you wouldn’t at any point ask me for a donation for your side of the conversation? Having said that if you said to me I’ve written a book about racing would you like to buy one I may well say yes. To me that is the BIG difference. Blogs should be free. Anything that is to charged for whether masked as a donation or not (unless you consider yourself a charity of course) is a service. In fact I would ask you donators and yourself to question whether their donations should be going towards better causes if they are profiting from betting rather that in your pockets, as I assume you are not poverty stricken.

    Now for the sake of balance and because I want you to be sure that my comments are not at all personal, on the contrary there are people on the net trying squeeze every penny they can out of the vulnerable and anxious for all sorts of usually bogus or rip off services. If you no longer wish to write a blog but just market your services (tips stats etc) for which you will be charging and paying your taxes on any gains it is up to me and others to decide whether they pay and read or not. I think it would be a shame but better than making people feeling that they need to ‘donate’ money to yourself because they have backed a few winners that they’ve chosen based on your thoughts. Either only offer your picks for money or don’t mention them on the blog. May be the blog should not contain tips as such but I suspect that you wish to use the blog a taster to get people hooked who then feel they need to pay when elements of your website are charged for?

    On the back of penning this I have donated to the NSPCC having made a few quid during Cheltenham. One of my winners was empire of dirt so I hope you understand that despite reading you thoughts, agreeing then backing the horse I feel there is a greater need with said charity.

    I hope you continue to offer a blog free of charge that contains thoughts on horses that youve bet on as that seems to be what the blog started out as and why I read it in the first place. Now we all like to make a few bob when possible but just because you have had some success and a growing readership do you really need to extract as much money out of the readers as possible? Yes is their choice but if you hadn’t have mentioned a ‘donation’ method of payment? well I think I’ve said enough. Hope you’ve read this and consider my thoughts. Hopefully you wont think I’m just some tight arse looking for free tips that you want to say f off to?

    1. Hi Jim,
      Thanks for your comment, and for taking the time to write it.
      Firstly, the blog is going to continue, free at the point of use, for the foreseeable future – provided the donations model continues to work. That may or may not include Saturday’s – but if you are not reading the blog for tips as such, I am sure you will make do with the other 6 days of the week that are free.
      I call them ‘donations’ for that reason, because everything at the moment remains free at the point of use – if I made it a subscription service and closed of the bog content to x amount of people – you wouldn’t be one of them – and the NSPCC may not have received a penny – a worthy and noble cause.

      Now, I have been blunt. The blog, and my e-books etc, are my full time job. If you read the blog 7 days per week I am sure you would appreciate the time and effort that goes into it, which you may do in any case. Without an income from donations there is no blog – as simple as that. Well, there would be something, but it wouldn’t be as good as it is now. You are right it started out for free, as a hobby on the side, and I am trying my best to keep it that way. I really enjoy what I do, which I hope is clear.

      Now, I assume that you do not buy the Racing Post, or that you do no buy a daily newspaper. I occasionally but such items because I enjoy reading them, to be informed, entertained etc. It could be argued that same mindset could be applied to this blog.

      I make no apologies for believing that this blog, and the content, is worthy of some kind of fee – and indeed many would be surprised that I have kept elements ‘free’ for so long.

      Indeed, The monthly ‘Donations Club’ can be seen as a kind of service, in terms of the exclusive/discounted reports etc that members will receive. That is an element that is there for people to join if they want, or not. The important thing is that the power is in the readers hands, that is important.

      Only you know how you engage with the blog, what tips if any you follow, what trainer systems you may adopt, what thoughts of mine get you thinking and that apply to your own racing analysis etc and what you get from it. You clearly don’t feel that this engagement is worth any value to you- monetary wise – which is fair enough. That is why this model is what it is – the blog remains free for you to read, and will continue to do so. Although, I would say, if everyone had that view then it would be irrelevant, as there wouldn’t be much for you to come and visit.

      To be blunt for a moment – if you went through a whole year, reading 3 times a week, and donated nothing, to help keep it going and to ensure there is content that you want to read, I would call you tight-arse, yes 🙂 I hope you are not easily offended.

      To finish, my intention is not to extract as much money out of readers as possible – if I were, clearly I would be failing, as it hasn’t worked on you!! 🙂 It is all on a voluntary basis and I am conscious not to bang on about it – there was nothing on the blog last week about Donations, for example. Maybe you are in a majority and I have mis-read things, but there we go.

      2400 people a day were reading this during the week, 2940 read the blog on Saturday. Those that have donated in any form are way below 10% of those numbers – so, there are clearly plenty who no doubt agree with you – but at least this approach allows you all to keep reading.

      All the best,
      Josh

      p.s I never say F off to anyone as polite as yourself,I think we would get on if we went for a pint – and indeed that is exactly what I am doing in an hour or so following an invite from a locally based blog reader.

      1. Josh, thanks for the consise and measured reply. I did not think for one minute that this was you full time job so apologies for that presumption. I presume again though that you don’t intend to make a living from writing a blog for the rest of your working life? With your university qualification and obvious marketing skills surely you have future plans? Again for me part of the reason that blogs should be free is as they should be hobbies. Yes they take a bit of time to write but so does playing chess or whatever takes your fancy. I confess that I have said F off rarely in the past as there are some idiots in this world that unfortunately we all come into contact with at some point in life but fair dos to you for obviously reading and considering my points. I look forward to reading into the future but would appeal to all that gain from betting to think to do what’s best with their winnings regardless of whom thinks they were the major determing factor for placing a winning bet.

        1. Hi Jim, I read all comments, and reply to all emails, that is part of my job and the bit I enjoy most 🙂 (bar tipping winners)
          I am lucky that I have found something I really enjoy and I never feel like I am working (bar the odd occasion during an intense Cheltenham week say) and who knows where that will lead me. My focus is on creating a quality blog, creating quality information products that help others in that battle against the bookies etc. This blog, researching stats,looking at races,writing articles for others (Betting Insiders Club/Daily Punt) easily takes up 10-12 hours a day if I let it – which I do, because the time disappears. My focus is on providing quality info etc, and then exploring whether I can make an income from that. I am not one for plan all of my working life 🙂
          Betting has always been about entertainment and being responsible on here. At the same time, its not lost on me that those that bet £5 per point on my tips, are nearly £600 up since Christmas – I hope some donate to charity etc, but at the same time, requesting the odd donation from my end isnt ridiculous etc .
          Each to their own,
          Josh

          1. Fair enough Josh. One last thought from me. If you continue to be successful and some readers are up £600 since Chrimbo I expect you and them will start to see restrictions put on your betting by bookmakers (if you haven’t already). So other than take your chances on the betfair price that is available or betfair SP your readers may find funds drying up or may wish to join you in trying to write a blog and then charging for it or subsequent reports if readership allows? All food for thought? I must admit I’m surprised and bit envious that you can make an income from this, maybe when kids come along things may change. Plan for that trust me! Good luck and I hope you continue to find the winners but as I say paying for it isn’t for me, yes I get the odd paper and even racing uk but there is another complete discussion to be had as to why I would pay for that over your services.

  2. Keep up the good work Josh. Cant wait for the Flat to start and get the Profiles started. Have found a few that are looking interesting.

  3. I would imagine no one who has donated has complained about the services surely they would just cancel their donation if they were unhappy.Personally I think that your approach is best for next year or so,those with limited resources can steadily build up their banks and avail of the free tips/angles etc.There are services that charge 50 a month for rubbish that I could easily outperform myself.Its rich for someone to criticise a philosophy that is 1 free and 2 profitable.just keep doing what your doing and ignore the detractors

    1. Indeed Gerry – and about 4 people did last week, well on Thursday, just after Empire of Dirt romped home at 20/1! Its a funny old world 🙂 This blog, content wise, will only get better and it will be an exciting 12 months or so.
      Thanks for your support, as always.
      Josh

  4. Well all I can say is I appreciate the time and effort you put in to studying the form and your tips. Since last September i have made about £1000 profit mainly from your tips ( I know this as I use Betfair and have withdrawn this amount) and it’s quite a thrill when your big priced winners come in. I like to study the form but don’t have as much time for this as I would like so I am happy to pay a small fee to you for your time , effort and considered views. As for what I do with my winnings well that’s my business. Whilst I think it’s great to donate to charity I resent being told to donate my winnings to charity. I get a bit fed up with all these comic relief , sports relief , Red Nose Day types who probably vote Tory and assuage their consciences with donations to these causes. I prefer to donate to charities of my own choice and to organisations such as 38 Degrees who are trying to change the world for the better.
    As someone else suggested Josh, it would be nice if those who are donating got to have a small window of early warning for tips ( mail , whatsapp perhaps) to enable us to get the best prices.
    Anyway thanks again Josh.
    I’m going to have to say it for you Josh. Jim is a tight arse.

    1. HI Ian, thanks for comment.
      I wont venture into politics on here haha – I am going to put some more thought into the package on offer for those that donate monthly. Your idea of being emailed say, Tips, as I have decided them and before/as they are posted on blog is a good idea. I am conscious that tips can go up anytime between 5pm and 10am the following day. And, that would be a worthy perk I think – I will get the thinking cap on but it has been noted.
      All polite comments are welcome on these pages 🙂
      Josh

  5. Hi Josh Re Jims comments. I donate a small amount on a monthly basis to your blog. I happened upon your site during one of the later York meetings last year when you put up one of Brian Ellisons winners of a sprint handicap at about 10/1. I watched your selections for a while was quite impressed and decided to start following you. To date pretty good Now I also take the W/ender and the Racing Post on Saturdays (every day) during Cheltenham and the other big meetings. The tipping performance from both these publications over the same period has been abysmal Segal in particular going thru a lean period. I also follow Hugh Taylor on the ATR web site and you could argue that he is free as is Ben Linfoot on the Sporting Life site but you get nowt else from them no statistical analysis or lead ins to races horses etc just the tips. Both of these sites and the publications are I feel bookmaker driven The more tips they put out the more bets ad infinitum You obviously are not plus there isnt a plethora of selections put up by yourself throw in the promised publications I will receive as a suscriber then your site definitely becomes Value for money.Keep up the good work mate. Just one word of warning tho . Once people start paying for a service they begin to expect standards so maybe you need to to consider the direction you want to go in as you will definitely find if you continue to be successful the donaters will want even more preferential treatment

    1. Hi Tony, thanks for your comment and considered views, esp your final point. I am going to do some work on the package for the Donations Club members so that it is clear what they get, that others may not. It is a service in a way – but then the blog etc will remain free at the point of use, so it is about what else I can add in – and Ian below has thrown in one good idea. Plenty to think about and I should really shape that before pushing the Donations Club much more.
      Thanks again,
      Josh

  6. Josh
    Yes Jim is a tight arse, I agree with Ian C and I am happy to pay a small fee for your hard work for my enjoyment. My view is if you provide a service people should pay for it. When a tipster gives you a free week or month you can then judge for yourself how good or bad they are and if the value is worth it.
    Well I have had the pleasant experience of reading your BLOGS and betting on your TIPS and others in green. I am now willing to donate each month win or lose. I have already wrote to a pensioner who plays golf and reads your blogs and bets on your horses. What more can a man want in life.
    Josh you keep doing what you want and don’t listen to guys like Jim (tight arse) ?.

    Can I make a suggestion, could you mention your 4 short list horses for each race but do what you are doing but gives us an option to bet your tip the normal 1or 2 pts but have a wee saver 1/2pts on the other ones you don’t pick.
    Keep up the good work.

    1. Cheers Mike – yes I can be clearer in write ups what the shortlisted horses were – there were a few at Cheltenham on those lists that could have been clearer. I will make sure that is the case from now on.

  7. Whilst I respect what Jim has written and respect him very much for his very articulate and well presented views, I have to say that I disagree with him 100%.

    What he is effectively saying is that he is happy to read and take the advice on this blog; that has taken hours of research and a number of years of analysis and plotting; and then to use it, for free, without care or consideration for the person whose intellect, hard work and determination to offer the service; has delivered a profit and so much useful information over a considerable period.

    It reminds me of the people who walk in to a newsagent and spend 30 minutes reading their chosen newspaper or magazine before putting it back on the shelf with absolutely no intention of paying for it, or (and I’m sure we will all have seen this) the thief who walks in to the Betting Shop, sits at the table with the Shop Edition of the Racing Post and then who tries to walk off with it sandwiched in an old copy of The Sun…

    I appreciate that Jim is not a thief, but he is a person who is obviously ethically happy to take something for nothing and to profit for it, and in my humble opinion that is plain wrong.

    I have no idea what Josh makes from donations, I know what I have donated so far and intend to in the future and I base that on what I pay 2-3 paid services and how they compare to Josh…..2 pale in to mediocrity and one is delivering very similar profit to Josh and therefore I am happy to pay a donation.

    What I would suggest to Jim, is that if he cant donate he should stop reading the blog, because quite simply, if we were all as greedy and unethical, there would be no blog and we would all have to pay Josh for his time and effort via subscription ; he would have to pay a chunk of that in taxes and a significant number of avid supporters would all lose out.

    1. Thanks Ian…

      I will just clarify the ‘donations’ – they are not charitable donations as such – it is an income and sadly the tax man will take a slice 🙂 I thought donations the best name given it is voluntary, and while there are added perks, the blog as it is remains free at point of use for everyone,regardless of whether they donate. A subscription service is a completely different beast.

    2. Ian, I just thought I would glance at the comments before the school run as I expected a bit if backlash from Josh’s new ‘loyal donators’. I also respect your views but your idea of a blog is clearly different to mine. The vast majority of blogs are free because the writers of said blogs want them to be freely accesable to anyone to read. A service such as the kind of reports that Josh offers from time to time are a completely different publication and he rightly charges for them (and pays his taxes, I hope). I do not and have not done any of the petty suggestions you make in your comments. I am not looking for free winners ( they don’t exist anyway) I am merely interested in the thoughts of people like myself that enjoy horse racing and look for ways to solve the puzzle of unearthing winners are working men’s prices. If Josh wins he makes plenty I am sure. If he wants to make a living from writing about horse racing then that’s his bag but a blog is and shouldn’t be a charged for publication and if people like you want to pay for it by donation then you probably have more money than you need so I suggest you find some more worthy causes to donate to.

      1. Jim; I respect your views but frankly I’d rather make my donation to a genuine cause like a young man trying to make his way in the world than “charities” who mostly take most of what we give them in admin and wages and then divert most of the rest to terrorists and appeasers of terrorism. If half the world cant practice safe sex and use birth control; I don’t think they are worthy of charitable donations……..we will have to agree to disagree on the definition of a blog

        1. That is a really silly comment about ‘terrorist sympathisers’ and ‘lack of birth control’ and typical of people believing the unbalanced rubbish printed in the ‘newspapers.’ You do have a point about charities being a lot like private businesses and paying CEO type salaries to their top level employees,that shouldn’t happen with a Charity,although they still need to cover admin costs and need donations to do their work in the same way Josh needs it.There is no shame in this at all.

          I find this blog to be interesting and thought provoking but do not follow all the tips but I am happy to make the odd donation and will continue to do so in the future. I think Jim has a point but don’t think any less of people who do or don’t pay,it’s a personal choice.

  8. Jim you have more than made your thoughts on blogs known. Please dont turn this into another Betfair Forum. The posters on there become a bore.
    Its a good friendly way of exchanging views and if anyone wishes to make a donation thats their business. Lets keep it that way.

    1. Yes agree, and I have spoken to David before – definitely a very good blog for all things ‘Profiles’ related.

  9. I have used free and subscription services in the past for horse racing and I have rarely come across a more better informed and reliable service as that offered by racingtoprofit.co.uk. It would be very easy to tip up odds on horses and rely on a small return on investment each month but it is another thing to specialise in long distance national hunt handicaps and to have such an outstanding record and return.

    Also, remember we were asked to consider a donation-a very rare thing indeed-for a considerable amount of work put in by one man on my behalf at less than 50p/day, the price of a newspaper. Even in the 1980’s racing tips, formulae, systems, etc. could cost up to £15 to buy- a considerable amount back then. Please be grateful for what you have and are about to receive

  10. I think the donation approach is perfect, if keep winning, feel obliged to donate. have donated twice and will be donating £10 every month for foreseeable future.
    every confidence in long term profit

  11. The mates talking in the pub example used by Jim is not analogous as Josh is doing all the talking and Jim is doing all the listening

  12. Well Josh, I am sure you know where I stand on this. How anyone can imagine that the doing level of analysis you reference can be other than a full time job is astonishing. I for one was glad to see your donation model set up as something for nothing feels wrong to me.

    Now lets all just talk horses.

  13. Dear Josh,
    I have just ploughed through All Comments from Jim on March 21 st @ 2.41 pm onwards and my Brain Hurts !!
    How you have put up with this for so long Josh I don’t know !!
    I’m not sure how I came across your Blog in the first place ,but I’m mighty glad I did!!
    I have Cancelled every other Subscription Service ( and over 40 years + there have probably been hundreds !! ) and I believe have found the first Genuine One.
    Given that by and large people do not appreciate anything that they get for nothing I believe my Donation of between £10-17.00 per month is fantastic value . Thus, I am finally getting around to say ” Subscription Only “—- and if you don’t like it — Cancel !!— with the added Bonus that I won’t have read any more of Jim’s diatribes !!
    Regards,John

      1. Cheers John…Jim’s comments are more than welcome, as all polite and respectful comments are – everyone has a different opinion, and while I would think Jim’s is in the minority (but he may not be!) he is entitled to his view and I am under no illusions about trying to please all of the people all of the time. The blog is what it is, the approach is quite clear, and how people engage with that is up to them. Thankfully I don’t think a subscription element is required for the foreseeable future. I think I will be adding a day pass element in the next few months though, charging for access to Saturday’s and other big race days (‘free’ to monthly donators of course) But, those thoughts are in early development and that may not be desirable. But, £3 for access to Saturday’s posts/big race trends/previews etc would be worth it I think. Maybe. Thanks for your support.

        Let’s get back to talking horses.

      2. Go for it John I’ve got broad shoulders and am not easily offended. Ask yourself this what came first the blog or the donations? Now I have nothing against anyone who wants to give some of their winning to Josh. But do not be fooled into thinking that if you do not donate there will be no blog. People who blog do so because they want to. People who ask for donations or payment do so because they feel that they are offering something that should be paid for. If I wanted to buy a report, system or any tipping service I would. I don’t. I want to read blogs and choose which horses I back and lay myself. If I am doing well I buy gifts for family and friends and donate to charity. If I am not I don’t. I only commented in the first place to explain to Josh why I do not donate as I thought he may want to know. As 90% of his readership don’t donate either I hope he may realise that others do not want to pay for a blog but may still consider whether to buy reports etc. Now if your brain is hurting and you’ve been chasing your tail trying to find someone to pay for tipping winners for40 + years I suggest you give up betting on horses, enjoy the sport for what it is and go for a lie down now and again.

        1. Thanks JIm.

          Thinks its best we close of this conversation now. All points have been made and I don’t want a spat erupting on here.
          Josh

          1. No problem Josh and I will make this my last reply whatever the insult or provacation as I have no wish to argue about the original comment. But when some of your followers feel they need to justify what they are doing by way of insult e.g. Twat I think was used in a tweet and you used haha and agree in return to some of their comments then I think it’s only fair that I should respond. Good luck with today’s and future picks

  14. Having had a great successful jumps season,i was wondering if you will be doing any research in summer jumps season,pretty sure there might be some micros/angles there too,i tend to do it day by day and keep things in the back of the brain ticking away,as you are in such a good flow with the jumpers I think we can all do as well over the summer months, until the shadows lengthe again and Kerry lee comes back to brighten our long nights

    1. Ah indeed I will dive into the summer jumpers. Will do some track Profiles again and research a few micros/ trainer/track based. Always plenty to get stuck into.

  15. Was great to see Paddy Brennan back winning on sat after cue card misfortune,gave always on the run his usual attacking ride,lesser men would have wallowed,shows what a pro he is

  16. Hi everyone,

    I am back after my post Cheltenham brain break. I am a pretty serious punter and have several sources of tailored information available to me. I find Josh’s comments thought provoking and useful. I am happy to donate both monthly and additionally. I tend to find winners from the smaller less competitive tracks and so micro angles are useful to me. I enjoy Cheltenham for the spectacle and the trip for the week.

    anyway Josh, keep up the good work and more winners mean more donations etc etc.

    By the way my non micro angle of Tizzard and Powell found a 11/1 winner last weekend.

  17. Hi Josh,
    Firstly want to make it clear I’m not the Jim who wrote the contribution about donations etc. I have been reading your blog for 2 months now and I am really impressed with it. I did donate a fiver on the one week I made a profit but unfortunately I do not get to back all tips due to work commitments. Hence I missed empire of dirt last week. I will always be prepared to make a donation when I profit from your tips and I think a voluntary donation when profit is made is a very reasonable way to show our appreciation

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