Stop The Press! A Stats/Angles of Interest horse won! I know, I could barely believe it myself 🙂 A nice win for My Brother Silvest 11/2>9/1>7/1 SP. He got to the front as hoped, jumped well, and out-battled the runner up, showing a winning attitude. Hopefully some of you may have looked at the race and had a go. As always, horses in that section are not tips. They usually have a stats/profile/pace ‘way in’ and then I leave the rest to you. I look at the horse, but not the oppo. In time I hope that section becomes profitable to back blind, but in that sense it is still a test. I am confident that it may come into its own during the flat season though. The systems wiped their face, thanks again to a Nicky Henderson winner.
The ‘Weekly Diary’ Post is getting there, I want to add some eye-catchers in from last week but as yet haven’t got round to going back through the videos. I will attempt to do this in the morning. Results and some reflections on last week are up on the post – plus an interesting comment or two 🙂
Just A Par – 1 point win – 12/1 (BV/Lad/Coral/WH) 2nd
Azure Fly – 1 point win – 12/1 (BV,Coral/BFs) 11/1 (bet365) UP
(PP money back if 2nd to SP fav in this race,but don’t think their odds compilers have started work yet…)
This is an open race – one of those where any of them could win (well,bar Wilton Milan I think,but we probably know what will happen now! 🙂 ) In that scenario it is probably a race to leave alone, but, well, I just cant help myself.
Just A Par – this very much depends on what Just A Par turns up. At his best, this former G2 winner and RSA 7th would pick these up and carry them over the line. It is knowing the ability is there, in what is a weak C2, that meant I had to have a go at 12s. I don’t know if this is a prep for another go at the Sandown race he won last year. They remove the blinkers here which adds to the puzzle – it could be that he will be pleased they are off and run better than in the autumn. It could be that after 1 fence we were wishing they were on. He takes some rousting and cajoling if he is in one of his moods. But, there is only one letter in his formline so we should at least be able to go through the race hoping! The break doesn’t concern me given the trainer, who is also in some decent enough form, and I don’t think there is anything in jockey bookings – given Bowen’s relationship with the horse I doubt STD had the choice – but I could be wrong. This will only be his 15th chase start also. All race conditions are fine. It is just whether he travels. I had to take a chance at 12s, and we may know our fate early on.
Azure Fly – He needs good ground to show his best and this will only be his 13th chase start. Three starts ago he ran really well at Cheltenham, where but for a bad blunder at the top of the hill, may have been right in the mix come the finish. I will put the last run down to the going. He has a brilliant record when running fresh and has yet to prove he can’t run up to this level. That Cheltenham race, where he was only beaten 5l or so, was as deep, if not deeper, than this. A repeat of that Ludlow run would see him right in the mix here for me, and as such a double figure price looked too tempting. He may also be a bit of a character, I am not sure – but the price allows the chance. Hopefully it is clear after the first few fences that he is travelling.
Of the rest…
I am happy to take on the Fav at his short price. He is unexposed and in the ‘could be anything’ category and maybe he will take this. But, that last run wasn’t the most convincing for me. He had plenty of time to close the winner over CD and was rather one paced. He definitely looked like he was still learning and maybe today is when he steps up. But, I am happy to take him on. Bertie Boru – well he was in my shortlist of three – with a clear round he could win this – which probably means at 8/1 I will have a saver on. There is some pace in this and my fear was, being a hold up horse, he might get a bit detached – meaning he may have to pick up speed to close, which wont help his jumping. Bar the same fence LTO he actually jumped ok, and this jockey gets on with him well. He looked to be running with zest LTO and if in the same form here, he could go close.
I am happy to take on the rest at the prices. Nicholls other horse is a tricky one, but like most in here hasn’t got many miles on the clock. I am yet to be convinced he will truly stay this trip and he can be a bit of a ‘thinker’. Others have stronger chase form. Drop Out Joe is interesting – maybe he didn’t handle the ground LTO (which may have been that strange gluey type that some go on,and many dont) but that was a really poor run. He was well backed there and has a decent record after a break. And he won on soft at Wincanton. So, it was a dilemma, but I decided to leave him. Godsmejudge really needs the headgear to work – even if it does I am sure he needs further and I haven’t been convinced by him yet this season. 5s was short enough in that context, albeit I would like him to show some more life at some point. (his second two starts ago was deceptive for me) Wilton Milan has stamina questions, class questions, and generally quite a few questions. The yard are in great nick, the only positive, but I would like to think these are too good for him.
PACE – Drop Out Joe likes to get on with it, and a few like to press the pace – GodsMJ, Three Faces West,Azure Fly – those four should ensure it isn’t a crawl, which may help Just A Par, depending on his mood.
A tricky race, and these two could bomb out as well as storm to victory,(that happens more often than not, given the average price of horses I tip is 11/1) but at the odds I had to have a go. Hopefully I don’t regret crossing Bertie off last either.
That is all for ‘tipping‘.
2.45 Weth – Bertie Lugg (14/1<) UP
4.20 Weth – Weapon of Choice (12/1<) UP
4.55 Weth – Gold Ingot (12/1<) 2nd 8/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Remember, these are not tips, just ‘ways in’ that you may find useful in your own analysis. I look at the ‘way in’ and the horse, and that is it. I do not analyse the races in depth…
2.20 South – Very First Blade – 8/1 – UP- Trainer/Jockey are 3/7,5 places for +70 points when teaming up here. This one ran in a seller LTO, which could be interesting in itself. He has course and distance form and has dropped a pound or two. Clearly there are a few above him that are expected to go better, but he has been nibbled at. Some of you All-Weather bettors may know whether he is drawn well or not in box two over that trip – I think it may be better to be stand-side but am not sure.
4.40 Exeter – So Oscar – 14/1 – UP- Trainer/Jockey are 4/13 when teaming up here. This one is interesting in a weak race. It is the step up in trip, on decent ground, which catches the eye. He is doing a few things different and given he won a bumper at Towcester it would suggest there is some stamina in the locker somewhere. The trainer is also in brilliant form at the moment. He looks like he has been tricky to train and it would be nice to see him nibbled at in the market.
That is all for today,