NEW POST ALERT…
(a quick reflection on the week’s results, picking apart an assumption of mine that turns out to be a load of tosh,a micro angle that comes from that, and a look at the crack team of Swinbank and Moloney)
A disappointing week but we start afresh and as bad weeks go, I have had, and will have worse. Hopefully some of Livrpool FC’s luck can rub off on me this week!
I am off to the Cheltenham Preview evening near Aintree on Monday evening. Do say hello if you are in attendance, and if you recognise me! 🙂 I have never been to a Cheltenham preview evening so it will be interesting what is discussed. I don’t plan on reporting home in depth so to speak but if anything interesting is said I will let you know.
The week ahead…I will spend Monday morning writing a brief weekly review post – a lighter one that usual as I have a lot of research to do (including some prep for the Flat). I will also write a ‘master blog post’ for the Micro Systems section, with all the links to posts/reports for the angles that we are following. I will also turn my eyes to Cheltenham and I may try and get the Gold Cup out the way this week, just to ease the load next week! I will also be thinking about/reflecting on my strategy for the week. I want to have a plan and I want to stick to it. On top of that lot will be the trends for the weekend as usual, as well as the daily search for tips in the 3m+ chases.
No Tips. The 3m hncp chase at Southwell looks dire, and actually the C5, 4.40 at Lingfield is more interesting. I got myself into a position to Tip Somerby but someone, somewhere is currently unloading the wheelbarrow onto him and he is best price 7/2. At 5/1 or 6/1 I may have thrown 1 point at him – if he runs anything like he has done in recent C5 chases, given his rating and light weight, I think he may well sluice up here by a wide margin. All conditions are fine and he has finished in front of 3 of these before. He goes well after a break. But, then it is a C5 chase, he is 13yo, and they all have something to prove. At this level strange things can happen and it can depend on which side of the stable they have rolled out of, as much as anything else. Given I was uncomfortable tipping The Last Samuri at 3/1, to recommend you back this one at around that price, would raise some questions!! (albeit my judgement of which 3/1 shots/those near top of market to back or leave is an area for improvement)
4.50 Wolv – Masterpaver (any odds) 3rd 12/1
2.40 Ling- Bawden Rocks (14/1 or shorter sp) 2nd 3/1
3.30 South – Bertie Lugg (14/1 or shorter) WON 2/9!
A.King Flat: 4.50 Wolvs – First Mohican* UP
*the first qualifier from a micro we followed last year, winning us 14 points at SP, 22 at BFSP. Focusses on King’s flat/AW handicappers in March/April/May, 16/1 or shorter. Since 2010 – now 67 bets/ 20 wins / 34 places / +52 SP / +70 BFSP / AE 1.52
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.30 Southwell – Silver Dragon UP 3/1 – this is that awful chase mentioned above, but this is the only one that caught the eye – simply because he has changed yards and that may spark him into some life. He is 0/10, 2 in chases mind. But, it is the trainer/jockey combo that caught the eye – 4/14, 7 places when teaming up at Southwell in all races in the last 5 years. 6/1.
That is all for today.