NEW POST ALERT…
(a quick reflection on the week’s results, picking apart an assumption of mine that turns out to be a load of tosh,a micro angle that comes from that, and a look at the crack team of Swinbank and Moloney)
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A disappointing week but we start afresh and as bad weeks go, I have had, and will have worse. Hopefully some of Livrpool FC’s luck can rub off on me this week!
I am off to the Cheltenham Preview evening near Aintree on Monday evening. Do say hello if you are in attendance, and if you recognise me! 🙂 I have never been to a Cheltenham preview evening so it will be interesting what is discussed. I don’t plan on reporting home in depth so to speak but if anything interesting is said I will let you know.
The week ahead…I will spend Monday morning writing a brief weekly review post – a lighter one that usual as I have a lot of research to do (including some prep for the Flat). I will also write a ‘master blog post’ for the Micro Systems section, with all the links to posts/reports for the angles that we are following. I will also turn my eyes to Cheltenham and I may try and get the Gold Cup out the way this week, just to ease the load next week! I will also be thinking about/reflecting on my strategy for the week. I want to have a plan and I want to stick to it. On top of that lot will be the trends for the weekend as usual, as well as the daily search for tips in the 3m+ chases.
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TIPS
No Tips. The 3m hncp chase at Southwell looks dire, and actually the C5, 4.40 at Lingfield is more interesting. I got myself into a position to Tip Somerby but someone, somewhere is currently unloading the wheelbarrow onto him and he is best price 7/2. At 5/1 or 6/1 I may have thrown 1 point at him – if he runs anything like he has done in recent C5 chases, given his rating and light weight, I think he may well sluice up here by a wide margin. All conditions are fine and he has finished in front of 3 of these before. He goes well after a break. But, then it is a C5 chase, he is 13yo, and they all have something to prove. At this level strange things can happen and it can depend on which side of the stable they have rolled out of, as much as anything else. Given I was uncomfortable tipping The Last Samuri at 3/1, to recommend you back this one at around that price, would raise some questions!! (albeit my judgement of which 3/1 shots/those near top of market to back or leave is an area for improvement)
MICRO SYSTEMS
March Trainers
4.50 Wolv – Masterpaver (any odds) 3rd 12/1
Jumps Handicappers
2.40 Ling- Bawden Rocks (14/1 or shorter sp) 2nd 3/1
3.30 South – Bertie Lugg (14/1 or shorter) WON 2/9!
Other
A.King Flat: 4.50 Wolvs – First Mohican* UP
*the first qualifier from a micro we followed last year, winning us 14 points at SP, 22 at BFSP. Focusses on King’s flat/AW handicappers in March/April/May, 16/1 or shorter. Since 2010 – now 67 bets/ 20 wins / 34 places / +52 SP / +70 BFSP / AE 1.52
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.30 Southwell – Silver Dragon UP 3/1 – this is that awful chase mentioned above, but this is the only one that caught the eye – simply because he has changed yards and that may spark him into some life. He is 0/10, 2 in chases mind. But, it is the trainer/jockey combo that caught the eye – 4/14, 7 places when teaming up at Southwell in all races in the last 5 years. 6/1.
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That is all for today.
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23 Responses
I was just thinking Masterpaver looks like a great bet back to the his last winning mark and is 1/2 at Wolverhampton on Tapeta and coincidentally running off the same sort of break as his last win suddly just seen loads of money has come in for it in the past ten minutes.
dont listen to them josh trainers and jockeys are better liars than politicians
Haha – I am not going for tips or ‘info’, just to be entertained. I don’t like reading the views of others too much, and prefer to use my own eyes. Albeit, there are the odd decent trainer comments about runners etc – one of you posted Kim Bailey’s quote on the Last Samuri, after he hacked up mind, but he was spot on there – expected him to win like that.
Hello Josh, I normally attend Aintree’s Cheltenham preview meeting, it’s entertaining as a rule though not sure you will learn much , Organised by John Morris who write’s the the excellent book “Jumping Prospects”. “The Northern Racing club” are also holding one at Haydock Racecourse on the same evening. Of the two Haydock probably better, but that is only in my opinion. Regrettably I can attend neither this year due to family commitments.
Yes that’s the one. Jumping Prospects, John Morris. Was ok last year but like you say more out of entertainment than tips.
This coming Thursday is the London Racing Club preview evening at The Holiday Inn, Kensington ( Near Gloucester Road tube). Phil Smith (wine drinker), Lydia Hislop (likes a pint of Guinness if you wish to but her a drink), Lee Mottershead (drinking lightweight) and bookies representatives. Also Matt B from Geegeez will be there, but only in the audience. Starts at 7 PM, non members welcome, get there early as it sells out. I will report back relevant pointers on the handicaps/lesser racers if I think that they would be useful.
I have been to a few over the years in the Midlands where “Brummie lass” Lydia is always a star turn, very under-estimated pundit imho who should be No 1 on any terrestrial channel list above the clothes horse Spencer; the inane Fitzgerald and the completely up himself Cunningham.
I stopped going to Cheltenham previews though after listening to Henderson’s Assistant (Morlock) a grossly arrogant man and Fitzgerald a few years ago turn it in to a “Henderson + Mullins” and nothing else 2 hour pass the sick bag session…
The moral of the story, stay away from Mullins and Henderson lackeys and listen to some genuinely “informed” opinion…
backed first Mohican think its got a sound chance pace should suit it and that was a good run lto gives me more confidence seeing it in one of your micros there pretty impressive figures 20 wins 34 places from 67 runs lets hope it does the biz
Is that the review at the club on the Melling Road hosted by the Jumping for Profits guy? I went last year, it had Ben Pauing, Charlie Lomgsdon and John Parrot. It was really interesting. Going to the Donny one closer to home on Thursday with Andrew Thornton, Tom O Ryan and Martin Dixon from Timeform. I go for the interest rather than any tips as such.
Tom O’Ryan possibly the most interesting man on the planet imho, absolute top class…. he has forgotten more than most of the rest combined will ever know!
Hi Tony, yes it is that one. Looks an interesting panel with up and coming trainers. Yes I wont be going for tips or ‘inside info’!
Agree about Tom O Ryan, very knowledgeable and good to listen to.
I been watching your site for a while paper trading the tips.
Then last week used real money
And Sods law you get a losing week. Hope things pick up and get my money back with interest !
Ahhh, that is always the way! I hope the historical results will give you some confidence – average odds of my winning tips is around 8/1 – that means a bumpy ride at times but I do deal in profit rather than winners – there will be big priced winners over time, and there will be long losing runs. But, if you have a decent betting bank, and start small-build up, you should enjoy the ride! Hopefully. Worst losing run so fr since start of Nov has been -18 points I think, which was last month. You will get your money back with interest – plenty of it – over time.
Cheers Josh. You can actually currently back Somerby at 4/1 at Paddys (BOG) and lay back at 4.3 on Betfair for a guaranteed profit if it does canter home…might even be a BOG drift.
Paul
straight into 3/1 within 2 minutes lol
Yep, the money does not surprise me having looked at the race, with a gun to my head he is the only one I want to be on. Potentially one that got away, but I was busy last night, which was probably the time to catch him! 🙂
Mark Gillard (like a good few trainers in here) doesn’t win often. I’d struggle to back Veauce De Sivola normally but with Cannon on again, dropped in grade, back up in trip, cheek pieces off he’ll do for me. The run at FL 4 back reads well in this company. Didn’t like 5’s early so drift to 6’s (8 on BF) is welcome. Luck to all.
Good luck Derek, yep it certainly isn’t a race to stake a huge amount I dont think and one where some sort of case on past form could be made for a few. Admire the fact that a drift makes you braver! Top stuff.
unlucky Derek, at the prices nearer the off yours turned out to be the best bet I would say – you just bumped into one who had track position and didnt make a single jumping error – if he had you probably would have won. Winner showed a bit more guts near the end as well – thrilling finish for the level!
That was a really appealing performance from Somerby. Really stuck his neck out and jumped very well.
By contrast, Arthamint (from the 3m chase at Southwell) looks a right monkey. Wouln;t be backing him in future, on that evidence!
Yeah, to be honest without HRB I wouldn’t have played the race. I was against Somerby for 2 or 3 reasons but especially on age. This race I suppose was there for an OAP to take and fair play to connections for having him spot on.
Josh, I took your hesitant “tip” Somerby with a point win recovered a fraction of recent loses.
Can I say A Winner is a winner at odds against if you are confident of your selection, value is added bonus.
Thanks again Josh I read everything you print, don’t always back the mirco’s or the jump hcps. I do back your selections in GREEN type though.
Keep picking.
Glad you had a bit on Mike, if 4s had stayed around for any length of time I may have gone for that – but that price was vanishing as I was typing and I would have had to declare at 3s, a price widely available. Value is in the eye of the beholder and always a difficult judgement – I knew he was 5 earlier, maybe 6s in places last night – sadly I didnt look last night, life got in the way! and I was slow out the blocks this morning. That is how it goes. Arguably he was value as 3s was 1/2 bigger than SP.
On Sunday I left the huntingdon race on price grounds, couple I looked at but dodged and they both got stuffed, and I left Jac The Leegend on price – who I thought would win well and he was held in second. A fine balancing act!
But, I write the way I do, so you can make your own call,especially when I am hesitant! and I am glad you backed him! 🙂 I would argue that value is imperative, rather than a bonus 🙂 Only by beating SP consistently over time can you be successful really – and if beating BFSP is the judge, then my tips are about 28 points better off at advised prices against BFSP so am doing something right.
Yep – micros are there to use as you please, and glad you have found an approach you are happy with. Well done again.